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Together wheels to QE Cup win; WO, RP Sunday’s focus

Sunday, October 16th, 2011

Lost entire write-up this morning and after 3 hours of work am out of time to recreate full analysis of Saturday action and Sunday specifics. Here are tabs only.

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 39th Nearctic (G1)

Most Likely: #11 Bated Breath 3-1
Best Value: #12 Hitchens 20-1
Exotics Use: #5 Riding the River 15-1
Super Add: #4 Fatal Buillet 15-1

8th: 56th E.P. Taylor (G1)

Most Likely: #2 Mahbooba 9-2
Best Value: #7 Adventure Seeker 10-1
Next Best: #9 Dream Peace 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Dyna Waltz 8-1

9th: ALW/N1X

Best Value: #7 Enduring Star 8-1
Next Best: #5 Exeter Road 4-1
Exotics Use: #1e Carroll entry 6-1
Super Add: #8 Pit Alley 15-1

10th: 74th Pattison Canadian Intl. (G1)

Best Value: #5 Quest for Peace 8-1
Next Best: #13 Treasure Beach 9-2
Exotics Use: #2 Arctic Cosmos 6-1
Super Add: #10 Redwood 4-1

REMINGTON

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: Remington Green

Most Likely: #2 Cherokee Lord 9-2
Best Value: #8 Heavenville 10-1
Next Best: #1 Skip a Smile 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Schramsberg 7-2

9th: Remington Park Oaks

Most Likely: #3 Savvy Supreme 4-1
Best Value: #2 Fast Tip 5-1
Next Best: #9 May Day Rose 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Le Mi Geaux 6-1

10th: Oklahoma Derby

Best Value: #6 Populist Politics 15-1
Next Best: #7 Redeemed 10-1
Exotics Use: #2 Infrattini 15-1
Super Add: #3 Meistersinger 8-1

Good luck!
Steve

Another big fall weekend ahead of Cup craziness

Saturday, October 15th, 2011

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF 11-12/WON ($5.00)-8-5

8th: Knickerbocker (G3), 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Boisterous 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #2 Yummy With Butter 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Mr. Ryder 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Boots Ahead 8-1 5th

9th: Athenia (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Unbridled Humor 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Thai Haku 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Denomination 4-1 WON ($11.00)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

OFF THE TURF 2-1a-6/Gate SCR

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 11-12
8: 1-2-3-4-9
9: 4-6-7
10: 1-2-6/Gate SCR

2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Cane Garden Bay 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Quartersawn 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Red All Over 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Sculptor 6-1 2nd

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ballyclough 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Big Albert 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Enclosure 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #4 Taproot 5-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 St Moose 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Congenial 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Garmento 20-1 9th
Super Add: #7 First Minister 12-1 5th

8th: 1st Keeneland 75th Anniversary, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: # Norm’s Passion 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Luke of York 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #3 Italo 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Voodoo Daddy 5-2 2nd

9th: 28th QE II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Important late season test for soph gals, and an outstanding cast has come together for this edition including Together, Coolmore’s runner up in last week’s First Lady. Naysayers are lined up to bet against Winter Memories, with the Del Mar Oaks trioka led by Summer Soiree appearing to be the key. Last year, Shirreffs won this with Harmonious as she and Evening Jewel — coming out of the DMR Oaks — ran 1-2. The decision that is toughest is what to do with the 2 Shirreffs horses today. In the meantime, Tom Proctor sneaks Pucker Up winner Marketing Mix into the fray, and at 20-1 with Gomez, I’m very interested in taking an alternative position with her and the O’Brien run-back..

Most Likely: #2 Together 5-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #4 Marketing Mix 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Summer Soiree 2-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Winter Memories 9-5 4th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Irish Exchange 4-1 DNF
Best Value: #5 Whispering Wisdom 12-1 6th
Next Best:  #12 Try to Catch Her 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Coup 7-2 DQ’d to 10th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Candy Cat Can 15-1 9th

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-7-9-10
8: 4-6
9: 2-3-4-8
10: 2-5-12

2x4x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-7-9-10
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-3-4-5-8
10: 2-5-12

4x2x6x3 = `144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: Oak Tree Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Outside draw makes Midnight Interlude a vulnerable underlay with plenty of viable options in fun assembly..

Most Likely: #3 Venomous 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Great Warrior 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #11 Cozy Kitten 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Lil Bit O’Fun 12-1 8th

 

Modest P4/P5 hits come in ahead of NY/CA C/O’s

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ostensibly 5-1 WON-DH ($5.40)
Next Best: #8 Passionate Gold 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Striking Wonder 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Style Squad 12-1 WON-DH ($12.60)

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Image of Disco 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Synthesizer 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Win for the Zipper 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Sleepy Freud 6-1 4th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Lady On the Run 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #2 Bailzee 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Life’s Measure 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Enniskillen 12-1 7th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Zaahy 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Adam Rides Again 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Medieval Sword 7-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Staff Sargeant 12-1 2nd

8th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Rigby 4-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #7 Fudge the Books 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Distant Sky 7-2 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Far Isle 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Sister Berta 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Far From Shy 12-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Ready to Party 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-36-8
5: 3-6
6: 2-6-7-9
7: 9
8: 3-7-8
9: 5

4x2x4x1x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7-9
7: 6-9-12
8: 3-7-8
9: 3-5-6-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Valeria 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Lofty Ambition 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Kissable 9-2 7th
Super Add: #7 Tizalwaysomething 4-1 2nd

4th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 For You My Heart 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #5 Lily Amore 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Si Mar’s Dear 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Wild Cat Lore 7th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like the most treacherous spot in the sequence with very beatable favorite in 3-1 Excessario and 8 others within about 2 lengths of each other on best. Field has honest pace projection, so envision your scenario and use the ones you think will be improving today..

Best Value: #8 Royal Heat 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Cragmont 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Ashen 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Thunder of Zion 8-1 WON ($11.40)

6th: CA-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Those playing exotics want to throw #1 Warren’s Big Cat (20-1) into their mix on return to turf and state bred ranks..

Most Likely: #2 Amoracchius 7-2 8th
Next Best: #8 Cranky Jack 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Stone Hot 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Unusual Beam 7-2 2nd

7th: CA-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bluegrass Reward 1-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #6 Memphis Mobster 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Lodi Red 5-2 2nd

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

$35,974 Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #2 Top Torero 2-1 DNF
Best Value: #3 Danceswiththewind 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Del Mar Johnny 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Late SCR
Super Add: #12 Warrens Two to One 50-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 4-6
4: 4-5
5: 2-7-8
6: 2
7: 1-4-6
8: 2-3

2x2x3x1x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-3-7-8
6: 2-8
7: 1-4-6
8: 2-3-5/SCR-7-12

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

P4 hit and more Mon. fuels “C/O Thurs.” excitement

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Big time action picks up Thursday with C/O opportunities in NY and CA, but couldn’t resist a little dabbling Wednesday on heels of $900 P4 hit Monday that culminated a very strong day. Hope all did well!

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Some superbly bred types debut here as discussed on ATR..

Best Value: #8 Constantinople 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Karlovy Vary 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Bargain Blitz 3-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Royal Decree 10-1 7th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Lulengo Uno 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #1 Late Steward SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Renegade Band 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Try Wild Love Again 15-1 10th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Truly Amazing 12-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Suyeta 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Sok Sok 7-2 8th
Super Add: #12 Fish 20-1 9th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

This has chaos written all over it..

Best Value: #10 Wrongful Suit 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Tahoe Lake 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Premier Cru 15-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Taino 20-1 6th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Sailors Pasttime 8-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Rose Medallion 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Late Steward SCR
Super Add: #6 Amazing Saint 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Summer Courtship 10-1 3rd

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 4-8-11
6: 1/SCR3
7: 6-9-10
8: 3-5-6-10
9: 4-11

3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50  Pick 5  (4,13,14/3/10/6,13,14/1,7,10,11)  Paid $96.65 (5 OF 5)
$0.50  Pick 5  (4,13,14/3/10/6,13,14/1,7,10,11)  Paid $3.20 (4 OF 5) x 9 = $28.80

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1/SCR3-6
7: 6-9-10-12
8: 3-5-6-10
9: 1/SCR-4-11

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50  Pick 4  (3/10/6,13,14/1,7,10,11)  Paid $87.05 (x 2 = $174.10 if SCR’d 1 in 9th on play)

 

Bi-coastal Columbus Day action nice end to wknd

Monday, October 10th, 2011

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Turn Up the Music and Petey Cramer are VERY beatable top ML choices. Hooligan’s Delight prime here with next pair. Suggest DD play into Pebbles to Elusive Pearl (heavier), My Redbyrd (lighter)..

Most Likely: #9 HOOLIGAN’S DELIGHT 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Barrel of Love 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Wee Freudian 5-1 WON ($10.60)

$1 Exacta  (3-9)  Paid $28.50
$1  Trifecta  (3-9-4)  Paid $87.00

9th: 19th Pebbles, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Elusive Pearl 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #7 My Redbyrd 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Ruthenia 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Divalarious 6-1 4th

$1 Double (3-5) Paid $17.60

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: 37th Jack Goodman, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

#5 Sweet Swap a full brother to Sidney’s Candy, but wouldn’t expect same brilliance quite yet based on mixed reviews of morning machinations..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Circle 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #1 Galex 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sweet Swap 9-5 5th
Super Add: #6 Scallion 8-1 6th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Mending Wall 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Special Charm 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Hannah G 10-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Cascina 3-1 10th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough set..

Most Likely: #2 Lisa Lulu 8-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Indiara 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Nothing to Fear 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Lutess 6-1 10th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fifth Dimension 6-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #7 Nahem 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Memen 6-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Every Ego 8-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 TEDDY’S PROMISE 8-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #3 Include Me Out 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Zenidekka 6-1 9th
Super Add: #12 Brazilian Charm 12-1 12th

8th: 38th Morvich (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Camp Victory 6-5 5th
Best Value: #4 El Gato Malo 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Excessive Passion 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 California Flag 6-1 WON ($15.40)

9th: CA-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Tropiluk 9-2 9th
Next Best: #2 Got Even 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #11 Go to the Pulpit 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Mustache Charlie 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Warren’s Marshall 12-1 8th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-5
5: 1-2-5-9
6: 1
7: 11
8: 4-7
9: 2-8

3x4x1x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-7
7: 1-3-11
8: 3-4-6-7
9: 2-5-7-8-11

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/11/6/2,12,13) Paid $906.65