KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Another World 5-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Long Lake Krista 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Goshen Hawk 15-1 5th
Super Add: #12 I Like It 8-1 10th

7th: OC/N1Y, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tough to take 5-2 on Winslow Homer making synth debut, though Unbridled’s Song progeny are generally solid or better on it..

Best Value: #3 Agastache 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Rockin Rockstar 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 A Diehl 6-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #2 Shellback 15-1 9th

8th: ALW/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Baker’s Bergerac was one of our best Saratoga successes, and there’s no reason he can’t wire this group..

Best Value: #5 Bergerac 6-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #6 Asphalt Late SCR
Exotics Use: #9 Nikki’s Sandcastle 10-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Joinem 5-1 4th

9th: 53rd Fayette (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Very deep and contentious..

Best Value: #5 General Quarters 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Wise Dan 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Eighttofasttocatch 10-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Ioya Bigtime 20-1 2nd

10th: MSW, 3+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Tycoon 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Tale of the Dance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Piquant 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Voodat 5-2 WON ($9.60)
Hi-5 Play: #7 Mainstay 12-1 3rd

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-10-12
7: 3-10
8: 5–6/SCR
9: 4-5-8-10-12
10: 4-11

4x2x2x5x2 = 160 x .50 = $80

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-10-11
8: 5–6/SCR
9: 4-5-8-10-12
10: 3-4-11

5x2x5x3= 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 (4/5/8/3) Paid $635.30

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 22nd Cal Cup Juvenile, 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$50k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Champions Gate 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Motown Men 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Rousing Sermon 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Stoney Fleece 5-2 3rd

5th: CA-MSW, 3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 SCR
Next Best: #2 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 River Rafting 6-1 10th
Super Add: #9 My Slew 6-1 3rd

6th: CA-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific race..

Most Likely: #3 Sun’s Out 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Circle the Moon 15-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Sammy’s a Runnin’ 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Arresting Officer 8-1 5th

7th: 22nd Cal Cup Classic, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Norvsky 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #8 Soul Candy 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Tiz Argent 12-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Lucky Primo 9-2 2nd

8th: 22nd Cal Cup Sprint, 3yo, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Mensa Heat 5-2 7th
Next Best: #9 M One Rifle 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Bob Black Jack 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Cost of Freedom SCR`

9th: 22nd Cal Cup Distaff, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Unzip Me 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 West Ruler 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Waveline 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Sugarinthemorning 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 California Nectar 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-6-9
5: 2/SCR-7-9
6: 3
7: 2
8: 1-9
9: 2-8-12

4x3x1x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6-7
7: 2-8
8: 1-5-9
9: 1-2-8-12

4x2x3x4 = $48

Interesting afternoon Sunday flirting with big P4 opportunity ($2,800+ for .50) at Keeneland before settling with a get-out hit on Carroll’s $28 Point to the Wild. Dowager winner Senada — a perennial bridesmaid — was unappealing at the 6-1 ML, but went postward at 3X that number! Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita are drawing towards their ends, and a $27k C/O in New York to start the raceweek is very challenging. Day 3 of Breeders’ Cup coverage continues from Churchill Downs with the pre-entries ready for consideration!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Exclusive Strike 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Parc des Princes 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Heat 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Mr. Enrico 15-1 2nd

.10 SUPER: Supers cancelled

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (G/S, P3 DD, Super)

The faves — #2 Sparks Will Fly (5-2) and #4 Reach for a Peach (7-2) — are OK, but there are plenty of more interesting players at prices as good or better..

Best Value: #5 Silver Willow 10-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Rodinia 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Manero 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Ann Flower 20-1 9th

6th:CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 A La Moda 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Margo Verge 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Chickatari 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Rock Star Royalty 6-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Stellars Theory 10-1 2nd

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough to seperate these..

Most Likely: #4 Holiday Broad 7-2 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #10 Fly to the Sky 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Steal the Appeal 6-1 12th
Super Add: #5 Centrique 6-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Imagining is OK, but 2-1 is silly. Freshman Dorm is good now and we’ve been riding this train through the upswing..

Best Value: #4 Freshman Dorm 8-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #10 Imagining 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 E. H. Indy 6-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Abilio 8-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Difficult sequence doesn’t ease up here..

Most Likely: #3 Departures 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 He’s a Scrooge 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Haya’s Boy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Yesterday’s Story 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Old Kit Bag 10-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 1-5-6
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 4-10
8: 4-10
9: 3-8

1x3x4x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-8-9-10-11
7: 4-6-10
8: 4-10
9: 2-3-4-6-8

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Superb betting opp..

Best Value: #10 Open Outcry 8-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #5 Mutiny 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Midnite Silver 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Seeyouinthecity 20-1 11th

2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cribnote 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Able Bellamy 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Litigate 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Fortitude 12-1 8th

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Odd and tricky set..

Best Value: #5 Strapping Groom 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Crossbow 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Gantry 4-1 WON ($5.70)

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky group with plenty of turfy heritage involved. Fawkes 2nd time starter Dreamalot — by Bernardini and a half to Spain — moves to lawn which would normally distress except that dam Drina (Regal and Royal) went from $7,500 claimer to stake winner once moved to lawn..

Most Likely: #1 Dreamalot 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Quietism 20-1 7th
Exoticas Use: #6 Polaris Dream 8-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Imaspeedyguy 5-1 5th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ambersand 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Parachute Colony 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Sonnyandpally 10-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Post Pattern 20-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-8
3: 1-4-5-6
4: 1-4-6
5: 4-5-8-9

2x4x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $48

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Zeb 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Five Star David 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Magic de Naskra 5-1 12th
Super Add: #11 Calculating Jimmy 4-1 2nd

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Yeesh.. Brutal. Little to go on with tons of firsters, many having synth/turf aptitude leanings and/or sharp works on KEE strip. Spread. WIDE..

Best Value: #4 Promise Me Joy 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 St. Jean 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Mrs. Boyd 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Prateada 6-1 WON ($13.80)

7th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Happy Week 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Lady’s Laughter 12-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Promised Mandate 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Hot Hot Mama 7-2 6th

8th: 20th Dowager, F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Askbut I Won’ttell 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Cheetah 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Hasay 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Miss Laa di Da 8-1 9th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Point to the Wild 8-1 WON ($28.00)
Next Best: #4 Lakeways Big Sis 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Jump Star 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Parade of Homes 3-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Inlovewithlove 8-1 6th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 1-3
6: 1-2-3-4-7-10
7: 9
8: 1-5-7-11
9: 4-7-10

2x6x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4-7-10
7: 9-5
8: 1-5-7-11
9: 4-7-10

6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Coming to you from Willoughby, OH as I make my way to Louisville for ATR’s two week coverage of Breeders’ Cup, the 4th I will have attended at Churchill (’00, ’06, ’10). Want to get underway southbound to be able to enjoy the good card at Belmont with the NY Showcase stakes making for a fun afternoon of wagering. Elsewhere, Hawthorne features the Illini bred fall stakes slate, Laurel returns the DeFrancis Dash and Keeneland offers a nice sequence anchored by the G2 Raven Run where I want to try #5 Funny Sunny (10-1). Talk to you Monday from Churchill Downs.. Enjoy the weekend!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

At 3-1, Bud White on the turf has no appeal. Look elsewhere..

Best Value: #11 Living Right 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Fortissi More 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Gamblin Fever 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Artie Luvsto Party 15-1 12th

2nd: 33rd Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Lovely Lil OK, but 8-5 a little heavy-handed..

Best Value: #9 Spa City Princess 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Lovely Lil 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Nicole’s Miss El 12-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Risky Rachel 5-2 WON ($7.50)

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Of those that have run, Flea Flicker obviously stands out, and Pat Kelly’s Paws Up is the first foal out of Fox Ridge’s excellent SW Homerette. Among the firsters, note eye-opening $200k at OBS for the Kafwain ($5k fee) miss Peggy Jane, which was 9th most expensive purchase overall and 5th highest among fillies..

Most Likely: #7 Hot Splash 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Appealetta 15-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Flea Flicker 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: 12 Peggy Jane 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Paws Up 30-1 10th

4th: 18th Bongard-NY, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Flying Zee entry 2-1 (#1x The Prize Fighter preferred) WON ($4.60)/3rd/4th/12th
Best Value: #3 Ganador 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Jaw Crusher 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tug of War 30-1 5th (3rd for wagering)

5th: MSW-NY, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Ocala Queen 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Late SCR
Best Value: #8 Silver Prize 12-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Grand Savanna 20-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-8-9
3: 5-7-9-12
4: 1-3-4
5: 1/SCR-3-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 34th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Preachintothedevil 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Repole entry 7-2 4th/7th
Exotics Use: #9 Pretty Boy Freud 5-2 9th
Super Add: #7 General Maximus 4-1 WON ($10.40)

7th: 18th Gimma-NY, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Good race here with play against fave in girl over boys NYB Futurity winner Wildcat’s Smile. Victory Island (7-2) solid but draws tricky rail slot for seven-eighths voyage, and three prices I’m using with her all look like potential winners. Have some fun here as formula is right for lucrative result..

Best Value: #11 Bellacourt 10-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #1 Victory Island 7-2 9th
Eotics Use: #9 Harbor Mist 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Newbie 8-1 11th

8th: 31st Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Hessonite 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #4 Mystic City 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Gitchee Goomie 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rogue’s Jewel 8-1 4th

9th: 36th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #3 Johannesburg Smile 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ichabad Crane 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Haynesfield 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Multi Include: #7 Inherit the Gold 5-2 7th

10th: 33rd Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Compliance Officer 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 Adirondack Summer 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Minnie Punt 10-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-9-11
8: 3-4-6
9: 3-4-5-7
10: 2-5-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (11-7-4-5) Paid $116.10

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Quetzalli 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Flavor Girl 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Double Mint 12-1 WON ($32.20)
Super Add: #5 Cat On the Island 5-1 8th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sunnybrook 7-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Speckledbird 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #13 Turned to Gold 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Sneaky Girl 15-1 2nd

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #15 Stud Muffin 9-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #16 The Roundhouse 8-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Green Bananas 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Smart Enuf 5-1 3rd

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Miss Bird Watch 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Mordecai Jones 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #15 Wise Choice 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 There Goes Molly 8-1 WON ($11.40)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Expecting Cash 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Ultimo Principe 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Orsonian 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #2 War Colony 6-1 7th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Casa Tua 2nd
Best Value: #9 Dattts Appealing WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #8 An Absolute Ten 4th
Super Add: #1 Starry 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3
5: 3-12
6: 15-16
7: 6-13
8: 1-3-5
9: 6-9

2x2x2x2x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 15-16
7: 6-13-14-15
8: 1-3-5
9: 1-6-8-9

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,6,9,10,11,13,15/14/5/9) Paid $92.62