Took a thorough thrashing at Aqueduct Wednesday when a parade of $20 winners scuttled P6 attempts and almost anything else attempted. In the wake of the prices is a $72k two day C/O for Thursday. In addition to the P6 sequence, Aqueduct played host to Mucho Macho Man’s return to the races in a 1m ALW. Kathy Ritvo’s charge could not have been more impressive in the sharp wire-to-wire effort which left a solid field panting and earned a 95 Beyer. Thursday welcome Hollywood Park back to the oval roster, and a good late P4 is offered while Churchill has an excellent MSW/ALW DD in the 8th-9th..  Thursday welcome Hollywood Park back to the oval roster, and a good late P4 is offered while Churchill has an excellent MSW/ALW DD in the 8th-9th..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Favored System Ready (10th) can win without me. Must improve to contend, let alone win..

Most Likely: #8 Chick in Slacks 5-1 6th-DH
Best Value: #10 Queen of Protocol 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ready to Party 6-1 6th-DH
Exotics Use: #3 Far Isle 10-1 9th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Favored Term Loan has SCR’d..

Best Value: #6 Little Wyatt 10-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #8 Deal Casino 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Quick Wit 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Personal Assistant 5-2 4th

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

7-5 fave Grimmer has SCR’d..

Most Likely: #3 Getinitalltogether 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Believe in You 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Lime Zest 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #2 Vamel 15-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 6-1 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #5 Love Stanza Chance 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Lady’s Lunar Luck 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Downtown Hottie 5-1 3rd

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Beatable fave Sneaky Girl has SCR’d..

Most Likely: #2 Super Slash 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Amylimehouse 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #3 No More Stress 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Iberian Gate 10-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Star of Escondida 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Dodging 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Griffin Rock 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Mighty Lover 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Raffie’s Choice 10-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 8-10
5: 6-8
6: 3-7
7: 2-4-5
8: 2-5
9: 5-8

2x2x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-7
7: 2-4-5-9
8: 2-3-5
9: 3-5-8-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50  Pick 4  (1/4/5/5)  Paid $421.00

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Indian Miss 7-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Sacristy 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Lobshot 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Open Water 15-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Newsdad may be a better horse now, but 8-5 isn’t remotely fair. 20-1 Tonto Fontenot, bred by the Univ. of KY, is better than he looks on page and has real shot here from cozy post at bonanza number. Tremendous betting race..

Best Value: #5 Tonto Fontenot 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Tahoe Lake 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Versailes Road 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Friends Place 10-1 9th

HOLLYWOOD PARK — SPOT PLAY

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Tucky 30-1: Have no clue if there is truly any upside in this 5yo Chicago transplant, but his AP poly races are not far off the players in this group and his Cali debut at 74-1 was better than it looks on paper. Might not be a bona fide win candidate, but certainly can be used to boost your exotic tix.. 12th

Most Likely: #6 Renegade Storm 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Antidote 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Bailouttheminister 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Killer Bear 20-1 7th

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Favored System Ready (10th) can win without me. Must improve to contend, let alone win..

Most Likely: #8 Chick in Slacks 5-1 6th-DH
Best Value: #10 Queen of Protocol 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ready to Party 6-1 6th-DH
Exotics Use: #3 Far Isle 10-1 9th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Favored Term Loan has SCR’d..

Best Value: #6 Little Wyatt 10-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #8 Deal Casino 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Quick Wit 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Personal Assistant 5-2 4th

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

7-5 fave Grimmer has SCR’d..

Most Likely: #3 Getinitalltogether 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Believe in You 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Lime Zest 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #2 Vamel 15-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 6-1 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #5 Love Stanza Chance 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Lady’s Lunar Luck 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Downtown Hottie 5-1 3rd

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Beatable fave Sneaky Girl has SCR’d..

Most Likely: #2 Super Slash 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Amylimehouse 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #3 No More Stress 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Iberian Gate 10-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Star of Escondida 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Dodging 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Griffin Rock 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Mighty Lover 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Raffie’s Choice 10-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 8-10
5: 6-8
6: 3-7
7: 2-4-5
8: 2-5
9: 5-8

2x2x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-7
7: 2-4-5-9
8: 2-3-5
9: 3-5-8-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50  Pick 4  (1/4/5/5)  Paid $421.00

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Indian Miss 7-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Sacristy 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Lobshot 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Open Water 15-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Newsdad may be a better horse now, but 8-5 isn’t remotely fair. 20-1 Tonto Fontenot, bred by the Univ. of KY, is better than he looks on page and has real shot here from cozy post at bonanza number. Tremendous betting race..

Best Value: #5 Tonto Fontenot 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Tahoe Lake 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Versailes Road 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Friends Place 10-1 9th

HOLLYWOOD PARK — SPOT PLAY

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Tucky 30-1: Have no clue if there is truly any upside in this 5yo Chicago transplant, but his AP poly races are not far off the players in this group and his Cali debut at 74-1 was better than it looks on paper. Might not be a bona fide win candidate, but certainly can be used to boost your exotic tix.. 12th

Most Likely: #6 Renegade Storm 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Antidote 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Bailouttheminister 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Killer Bear 20-1 7th

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Return of Mucho Macho Man, and even though DRF trainer stats show Kathy Ritvo at 6% ($0.32) with 2-6 month layoffs, Thoro-Graph trainer stats also notes she’s hitting at 21% (3 W’s) over the last 90 days with 14 starters (and 7 ITM). Southern Ridge, a Paul Pompa private purchase, is the horse to beat, but expect Mucho Macho Man to come back running on track where he chased To Honor and Serve home last fall..

Most Likely: #5 Southern Ridge 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Mucho Macho Man 8-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #1 SCR
Super Add: #4 Gallant Fields 7-2 2nd

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Nice group..

Most Likely: #3 Sweet Zapper 3-1 4th
Best Value: #13 Conquesta 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Wait Til Dawn 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Zultanite 12-1 WON ($19.40)

5th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Invocation 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 News Pending 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Apse 12-1 5th

<$20 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-6
3: 1/SCR-5-6
4: 3-5-13
5: 2

4x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Typically quirky Maiden Claimer with horses like 17/0-8-2 Tropical Jetset who will win the moment you leave them off your ticket. “The Big Cheese” improved markedly when cut in price and moved to lawn by Rice. Corny V. will need to work a trip out from the 12 hole, but 10-1 mighty appealing..

NOTE: Major draw in of #14 Roses for the Star (6-1)..

Best Value: #12 Le Grand Fromage 10-1 7th
Next Best: #14 Roses for the Star 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Tropical Jetset 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Vintage Heirloom 3-1 5th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific betting race and Bush turf-to-dirt, route-to-sprint, bug-boy-on player Readygetsgold an excellent key horse..

Best Value: #6 READYGETSGOLD 10-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Patine 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Strategic Sue 15-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Gambling Geraldine 3-1 3rd

8th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Treacherous set with droppers and comebackers and a highly shaky fave in perpetual ne’er do well Day of Destiny. I’ll cover the short prices in multis, but this feels like a great spot to play with the price candidates..

Most Likely: #8 Marquet Cat 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Annawon 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Xodo 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Don’t Fooli Houli 8-1 7th

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Yikes.. If you get here live to anybody, pray..

Best Value: #3 Giopi 5-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Troponin 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Dance Floor Maniac 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Macho Muchacho 10-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-13
5: 2
6: 12-14
7: 6-9
8: 3-8
9: 3-5-8-9

2x1x2x2x2x4 = 64 x $2 = $128

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 12-14
7: 3-6-9
8: 1-3-4-8-9-10
9: 3-5-8-9

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SATURDAY RESULTS

Overall a highly effective Day 1 for Cup ’11 with the $96 P6 play — of all things — making a very big difference to the bottom line through its’ $1,350 influx. Musical Romance was the elusive leg of the sextet, but as a fan of Bill Kaplan I couldn’t be too disappointed when so delighted for the South Florida veteran. Along the way Friday there was a good I.D. of Stephanie’s Kitten in the Juvy Filly Turf for $14, but expecting Stopshoppingmaria to stop sooner cost me the exotics. An early P3 hit (Will’s Wildcat-Secret Circle-Stephanie’s Kitten) was good for $100, and a high opinion of $58 Perfect Shirl worked out including the day’s last P3 ($200 for .50). Gary Young, Mike Welsch, Rich Migliore, Joe Petrucione and I all told you Royal Delta was the sharpest working distaffer on the Downs grounds these last two weeks, and she earned being atop the cold $116 triple and $588 superfecta with It’s Tricky, Pachattack and Ultra Blend. Hope everyone got something and that we can mine a few more nuggets Saturday!

CHURCHILL DOWNS — 28TH BREEDERS’ CUP

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Might have tried to beat Pletcher fave Shared Heart had I not seen her held tightly in a workout so that Rule’s feeling wouldn’t be hurt..

Most Likely: #1 Shared Heart 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Elegant Finish 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Jump Up 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Ensign’s Soul 10-1 3rd

2nd: Dream Supreme, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Huh.. Guess Dancinginherdreams wasn’t what we were promised last fall..

Best Value: #1 Grandacious 10-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Dancinginherdreams 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Salty Strike 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #9 Splendor Town 20-1 4th

3rd: 4th BC Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a truly preposterous event. For the 4th year in a row it sits there in front of us on the PP’s offering just modest clues as to what to reasonably expect. I’m interested in Meeznah as Dynaformer looks for his first Cup winner and she is as plausible as anyone. Birdrun should be involved early, will carry a long way and feels certain to hit the board. Cease has upside and Pleasant Prince has been working sharply. I’ll use Giant Oak back with Shaun Bridgmohan too..

Best Value: #3 Meeznah 12-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Birdrun 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Cease 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Pleasant Prince 12-1 4th

4th: 5th BC Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very good group was rendered more equal by Finale’s draw to the 13 hole. Pletcher-Coolmore colt by Scat Daddy is an utter terror from what I’ve seen over the past 2 weeks, and looks to have the tactical foot to provide Johnny V. an opportunity to work out a voyage. Hope the post conundrum allows his price to stay square, because like Stephanie’s Kitten Friday — 12-1 ML then 6-1 at break — there’s potential for him to come down. Endorsed by Nick Luck, Casper Netscher may be able to stretch to a mile while getting lost on the board. Animal Spirits closed into a slow pace in the Bourbon. And considering that Excaper’s best race came at the distance on the lawn behind Finale, why has no one said a word about him? He’s going to be 30-1. One problem with these four is awareness that the superfecta quartet in Friday’s filly version all came from the inside half of the gate..

Most Likely: #13 Finale 5-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Excaper 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Casper Netscher 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Animal Spirits 8-1 5th

5th: 28th BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Admit freely to feeling confused by this group. Respect Fawkes too much to believe Big Drama won’t put in quality title defense effort, but price just appears certain to be grossly underlaid. Like Switch on the F&M side, Hamazing Destiny was 2nd in this race last year and may be sneakily prepared for this year’s endeavor as well. Force Freeze, Giant Ryan and Jackson Bend all are possible on their best..

Best Value: #6 Force Freeze 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Jackson Bend 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Giant Ryan 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Hamazing Destiny 10-1 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1
2: 1-3-8
3: 1-3-4-5-9
4: 11-13
5: 2-4-5-6-8

1x3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: 4th BC Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Day’s most quizzical event. Defending champ Chamberlain Bridge training lights out, but the 14 hole is an added burden that makes any short price tough to swallow. Havelock and Regally Ready get high marks for physical appearance and works the past fortnight, while any among Hoofit, Camp Victory, California Flag and obscure Perfect Officer have potential at attractive numbers. Make your play and hold your breath..

Most Likely: #8 Regally Ready 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #10 Havelock 9-2 14th
Exotics Use: #14 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Perfect Officer 12-1 3rd

7th: 5th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

With as much speed as you have lined up, outside presser/closer types are the lean with Trappe Shot the shaky tab despite the dreadful Vosburgh no-show. One thing I’m not going to see happen is Jersey Town win without me. As discussed on ATR, it takes a bank shot to get him to the line first, but he could be in front at the 16th pole..

Most Likely: #9 Trappe Shot 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Jersey Town 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Wilburn 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Caleb’s Posse 5-1 WON ($15.60)

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 11-13
5: 2-5-6
6: 4-8-10-14
7: 5-7-8-9

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

8th: 28th BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

A litany of sharp 3yo Euros — from Lashkari to Red Rocks — have annexed this event, and Sea Moon appears poised for a similar earmark Saturday..

Best Value: #7 Sea Moon 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Await the Dawn 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 St Nicholas Abbey 9-2 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #3 Dean’s Kitten 10-1 9th

9th: 28th BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Crop of 2yo’s looks very promising, with Union Rags, Drill, Creative Cause and Hansen owning a result edge on the outsiders. Take Charge Indy, Alpha and on track impression Fort Loudon are deep exotic options, but don’t blame anyone who sees this race as similar to Friday’s Juvy Filly test where faves ran 1-2-3 in order..

Most Likely: #10 Union Rags 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Hansen 10-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Take Charge Indy 30-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Alpha 15-1 11th

10th: 28th BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

As with the shift to Stephanie’s Kitten after Somali Lemonade drew so poorly in the Juvy Filly Turf, am disheartened for Turallure with difficult 13 hole assignment. Goldikova was always the horse to beat, and it feels sacrilegious at this point to go against her. Strong Suit is ‘this year’s Euro model’ in terms of a 3yo trying to make a mark and Gio Ponti certainly can be expected to put in his quality try..

Most Likely: #1 Goldikova 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Gio Ponti 4-1 4th
Best Value: #13 Turallure 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Strong Suit 10-1 10th

11th: 28th BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Have discussed this race for weeks on end and can only make decisions based on what I’ve seen from principals over the course of the season and the last two weeks. Flat Out has the record, style and aptitude for Classic success, and appears the most logical player to fulfill potential in this assignment. I admit that while Uncle Mo may be the most talented runner signed on, I’m unconvinced he can be ready for the task at hand. Drosselmeyer is potentially better now then he’s ever been and can close out a big weekend for Bill Mott with the kind of quality effort at which his morning machinations hint. Havre de Grace has run premium races time and again this year, and she’ll need to be as special as Larry Jones suggests to impact this contest significantly. So You Think makes no sense to me at this stage of his career. I’m going to try to keep as many of the short prices — Uncle Mo, Havre de Grace, So You Think — out of the trifecta and key Flat Out up and down with 4 or 5 solid prices. You can always protect with the chalk on your multi-race back-up tickets as I did with My Miss Aurelia Friday and have done in the late quad..

Most Likely: #2 Flat Out 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Drosselmeyer 15-1 WON ($31.60)
Next Best: #13 To Honor and Serve 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Stay Thirsty 12-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Headache 30-1 12th

<$150 Ultimate P6 Play:

6: 8-10
7: 5-7-9
8: 6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1
11: 2-3

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1-5-11-13
11: 2-3-10-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

12th: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Buckleupbuttercup 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #8 Anunciata 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 May Day Rose 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ailalea 8-1 6th

 

 

 

FRIDAY RESULTS

It’s been a breakneck two weeks in Louisville, and it’s time for the annual Breeders’ Cup pep talk. Whether wildly successful or not, your ability as a horseplayer won’t be forever defined over these next 48 hours. We have unique opportunities in the Cup with a chance to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious annual puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be 0 for 14 going into Saturday’s finale and get it all back and more in the 2 minutes and 2 seconds it takes to run Saturday’s Classic…

It’s not uncommon to look at a card like Day 1 of the Cup and sense it is going to be highly formful as Andy Beyer suggested on ATR Thursday. And with possible winners like Secret Circle, Somali Lemonade and Turbulent Descent in the day’s first early and My Miss Aurelia, Stacelita and the Distaff soph trio deserving chalk in the P6 second half, it’s highly plausible. But as discussed since the draw, one well positioned upset will drive multi-race returns into the upper reaches while your interesting 30-1 shot running second or third will trip monster in-race exotics.

Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here’s hoping that everyone gets something that fills their account and makes them proud. It’s again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening, and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Churchill and everyone who contributed so generously to ATR over the last two weeks.. Best of luck this weekend!

CHURCHILL DOWNS — 28th BREEDERS’ CUP

CONDITIONS: MAIN-GOOD 2PM, FAST 4PM; TURF-YIELDING

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Privilaged 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Rothko 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 De Price 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Goodtimehadbyall 8-1 3rd

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Chilled 6-1 WON-via DQ ($7.00)
Next Best: #9 Katz My Song 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Gentle Tap 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Post Ranch 5-1 5th

3rd: 19th Ack Ack H. (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched set with challenging pace questions to answer..

Best Value: #5 Glenwood Canyon 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Gladding 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Nacho Friend 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Demarcation 9-2 5th

4th: 2nd Jimmy V., 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

There’s a preponderance of speed here, so inclined to look to some of the pressers and closers..

Best Value: #5 Southern Dude 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Matthewsburg 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Will’s Wildcat 12-1 WON ($13.20)
Super Add: #6 Free Entry 15-1 6th

5th: 1st BC Juvenile Sprint, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Inaugural running of this race is being given over to sharp Jack Goodman winner Secret Circle in most quarters, but be advised that Seeker’s Spa win — sealed slop or not — was as fast as what Baffert’s Eddington colt has run..

Best Value: #1 Seeker 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Secret Circle 6-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Shumoos 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Blacky the Bull 20-1 8th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-6-8
2: 4/SCR–6-9
3: 1-3-5-6
4: 3-5
5: 1-6

3x3x4x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 4th BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Came to Kentucky fully respectful of favorites #14 Somali Lemonade (3-1) and #10 Elusive Kate (2-1) as the clear class of the event, but poor draw for Matz miss and dubious fitness status of Gosden invader give pause to pecking order. There are many signed on here that can win, and the ones that drew best at attractive prices — like #5 Stephanie’s Kitten (12-1) — are the obvious place to start. Be aggressive and inclusive as there is no insane proposals approaching what can be one of the weekend’s big exotic opportunities..

Best Value: #5 Stephanie’s Kitten 12-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #14 Somali Lemonade 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Hard Not to Like 15-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Ann of the Dance 30-1 13th

7th: 4th BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Turbulent Descent has been widely identified as one of the likeliest winners of the weekend and she is perfect at the specialty distance of seven eighths. Mike Puype told me within 30 minutes of her Test win that his first inclination was to train the Congrats bay up to the Breeders’ Cup. He has done little wrong with her since the decision to stick to one-turns with her and though we all want to beat horses like her, she is imposing in this spot. Imposing, but not unbeatable..

Most Likely: #3 Turbulent Descent 6-5 5th
Best Value: #10 Tamarind Hall 20-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Switch 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Pomeroys Pistol 6-1 4th

8th: 28th BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Would love to be clever here, and there are a couple of price horses that do have some merit, but fillies like Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia enjoy figure and connection marks that provide an edge on the field. (Personally, I’m taking a stand against My Miss Aurelia within the race looking for a score, but plan on protecting with her in multis). Say a Novena’s win at MTH two back puts her in range with a return to it, while Northern Passion and Putthebabies down make first dirt starts that could offer jump up efforts into exotics..

Most Likely: #5 Grace Hall 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Northern Passion 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Candrea 6-1 11th
Super Add: #7 Putthebabiesdown 30-1 8th

9th: 13th BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)

Stacelita has been a standout among the domestic turf mares this season and while the eye infection and medication concerns hover, she has looked incredible preparing for this..

Most Likely: #2 Stacelita 2-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Harmonious 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Perfect Shirl 30-1 WON ($57.60)
Super Add: #9 Shared Account 30-1 7th

10th: 28th BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5)

The sophomore fillies have taken turns winning the big division races and now face off against some unspectacular but solid mares and one other older filly in Super Espresso. Royal Delta and It’s Tricky feel like the 3yo’s you want, though underlaid Plum Pretty is the sole contestant with a win — or a start of any kind in fact — over the strip. Pachattack has worked beautifully at Churchill prepping for the Friday feature, while Ultra Blend has never missed the board in her 5 dirt starts..

Most Likely: #6 Royal Delta 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #3 It’s Tricky 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Pachattack 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Ultra Blend 8-1 4th

$1 Exacta (6-3) Paid $16.00
$1 Trifecta (6-3-2) Paid $116.50
$1 Superfecta (6-3-2-7) Paid $588.60

<$100 Ultra P6 Play:

5: 1-6
6: 5-14
7: 3
8: 5-9
9: 2-3-8
10: 3-6

2x2x1x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

$2 Pick 6 (6/5/5/9/8/6,9) Paid $1,354.00 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-10-12
8: 2-5-7-9-10-13
9: 2-3-8
10: 3-6

4x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Opening Day action was rather elusive Sunday except for $20+ hit on Gary ‘Red Dog’ Hartledge’s On Fire Baby in co-featured Pocahontas. Quality portion of Breeders’ Cup Week hits the oval at Churchill Thursday with excellent G3 Commonwealth anchoring the day’s second half. Showers will pass through Louisville later this morning, but glorious conditions with sunny skies and 65-70 temperatures will grace the Downs and the Cup for the weekend.

‘ATR’ coverage of BC XXVIII continues Thursday with another round of selection discussion from show regulars and guests. Don’t miss RacingUK’s Nick Luck discussing all the Euro runners in Hour 2 Wednesday and Hour 3 Tuesday. My own opinions on Friday card up late this afternoon.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF: 13: WON ($8.40)-4-10: 2nd–3: 3rd

9th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Africanist 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #8 Tritap 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Congenial 5-1 3rd

10th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Dust and Diamonds 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Honchis’n Ponchis 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Moon Buzz 3-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Arienza 3-1 5th

11th: Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Very good collection of soph turfers with p[articularly tough decision needed on outposted Goldikova travelmate Salto..

Best Value: #1 Live in Joy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Perregaux 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Silver Medallion 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 SCR

12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Southern Rocket 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Grinning Gang 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 SCR
Super Add: #2 Court’s Journey 5-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Devil Train 5-1 WON ($13.60)

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 4-13
9: 8-10-11
10: 9
11: 1-3-4-8/SCR
12: 2-3/SCr-5-9

2x3x1x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 8-10-11
10: 9
11: 1-3-4-8/SCR-10
12: 2-3/SCR-5-8-9-10

3x1x5x6 = 90 x .50 = $45

Great finish Saturday at Keeneland taking last P4 of the meet for $635 and a few assorted supporting hits. Less successful at Santa Anita where one winner took down the whole P6 pool. Opening Day at Churchill and it’s been a busy day already starting with workouts at 5:45a. Thoughts on the last 2/3rds of the card below… ATR Breeders’ Cup Week broadcasts continue Monday live from Louisville!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Sky High Lady 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Ocean Bertie 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dancing Solo 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Song of Bernadette 15-1 7th

5th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Amie’s Dini 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Swift Artist 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Monono 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Quick Silver Song 5-1 6th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Wharton 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #10 Catfidential 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Street Fight 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Reason to be Proud 8-1 10th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Santonio d’Oro 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Super Saturday 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #13 Seve 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Le Chevalier 20-1 10th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-4-8-9
5: 3-4-7
6: 6-8-9-10
7: 4-7-13

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

8th: 30th Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Mr. Bowling 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Seven Lively Sins 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Hollywood Script 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Motor City 3-1 WON ($8.20)

9th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Sherp 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Tarpy’s Goal 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Brown Eyed Jozi 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Angel’s Tune 4-1 5th

10th: 43rd Pocahontas (G2), 2yo-F, 1m (DD, Super)

Tremendous betting race..

Best Value: #4 On Fire Baby 12-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #11 Heart of Destiny 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Believe You Can 5-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Golden History 20-1 5th

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Flame Run 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Delightful Magic 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Make a Toast 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Please Be Discreet 12-1 12th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Money Madness 6-1 11th

<$100 P5 Play:

7: 4-7-13
8: 7
9: 10-11
10: 4-8-11-12
11: 1-2-6-11

3x1x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-7
9: 8-10-11
10: 4-8-11-12
11: 1-2-6-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72