My apologies for taking a handicapping pass Saturday, but I wasn’t happy with the feel I had for the action and didn’t want to provide luke warm opinions as a result. One horse that I did talk about on ATR and “Loose on the Lead” was Sabercat and I was certainly pleased by his performance in the Delta Jackpot after lauding the Asmussen colt since Breeders’ Cup. I was struck thinking about the win by the difference an in-person/physical impression can make on one’s opinion. On paper coming into the Breeders’ Cup, Sabercat wasn’t a horse I was remotely interested in as a 2yo with impact. But seeing him gallop every day at Churchill and then work really well the Sunday before Cup opened me to his potential. I believe that only ATR listeners and Derby Trail members knew what happened with him and a colic episode pre-Cup as it went totally unreported. In addition, based on thoughts you heard directly from Steve Asmussen and Scott Blasi on ATR, you should have felt good about his possibilities in the $1,000,000 affair Saturday at DeD… Fold in a generous 8-1 price and you had a recipe for a nice hit. Hope many played him and did well. There is a $33k carryover at Aqueduct today on a very good card as well as a $70k C/O at Hollywood.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$33k P6 C/O starts here..

Very nice group and a tricky way to have to start the carry sequence. .

Most Likely: #1 San Pablo 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #3 Mine Over Matter 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Trulee Scrappin 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Viscount 8-1 2nd

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Another good group with many here capable on best including 20-1 Majestic Raffy who was within 1.5L of 6-1 Sky Blue Pink in October and seems to love this course owning 3/2-0-0 mark. Cleared NY-N1X last time from 12 hole under Abel Lezcano and has been consistant check earner all year. Great betting affair..

Most Likely: #5 Precious Metal 7-2 8th
Best Value: #11 Majestic Raffy 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Westside Corral 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #12 Hear the Footsteps 8-1 11th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

1st and 2nd time starting Empire bred 2yo’s. Kind of a crapshoot..

Best Value: #10 Kid Blast 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Officerandafoose 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Half Nelson 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #3 Timothy’s Boy 8-1 10th

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bourbonology 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Robinia 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Raffie’s Chance 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Lemon Splendor 5-1 3rd

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Inclined to play against 3-1 favored Bound by Humor at the low tote when he needs to improve to contend..

Most Likely: #2 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #7 Coaltown Legend 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Raynick’s Jet 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Bound by Humor 3-1 4th

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Idle American 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #9 Sam’s Buck 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Polaris Dream 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Windaful 5-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-6
5: 4-5-11
6: 1-2-3-10
7: 4-7
8: 2
9: 1

4x3x4x2x1x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2  Pick 6  (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13)  Paid $394.00
$2  Pick 6  (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13)  Paid $10.40 (5OF6) X 9 = $93.60

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-9-10
7: 4-7
8: 1-2-4-6-7
9: 1-5-9

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50  Pick 4  (2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13)  Paid $40.85

As discussed on Wednesday ATR, Thursday has a plethora of interesting races throughout North America and that was before the carryover in New York pushed onward to $237k+. Despite the deteriorating conditions at the Big A Wednesday that saw the turf races scuttled, it was a fun afternoon of play commencing with an encouraging 3rd place effort from Dee Tee’s flippy filly Ausable Chasm. The soph miss broke sharp and stayed on gamely under Carlos Montalvo’s busy ride to earn her first board hit since the Saratoga maiden-breaker. Behind the easy winning favorite and Gary Sciacca’s other runner Valuable Lady, Ausable Chasm triggered a triple of nearly $300 for $1 when sent off at 75-1.

Later in the 4th, a DQ that put Eversoul ($23.40) up as the winner garnered an enormous $685 tri with penalized Assured Victory and Settle for Medal. While the P6 and P4 plays went south, the overall action for the day was positive. Hope everyone did OK… Thursday’s P6 sequence already is affected by changes with all AQU races off the turf, so the 4th, 7th and 9th will be see SCR’s and MTO inclusions. Elsewhere around the country, there are several spots worth your attention including LRL, HAW, CRC, HOL, RP and WO!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

This was an intriguing group on grass that might have required deep investment getting started in the P6. Now, the MTO’s should be enough..

Most Likely: #15 Stud Muffin 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1e Jacobson entry 4-1 2nd/3rd
Next Best: #14 Summer Share 5-2 4th (3rd for wagering)

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Sea Gaze is a giveaway that has won plenty in the off going and will be leaned on heavily the way McCarron Pink or Lady Cohiba was Wednesday; Dakota Roadhouse is a fit that may be necessary on back-up plays should the odds-on fave fail..

Most Likely: #7 Sea Gaze 1-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Dakota Roadhouse 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 SCR
Super Add: #3 The Roundhouse 15-1 WON ($22.80)

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Challenging set with little seperating a largely undistinguished group..

Best Value:#5 My Unbridled Storm 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #6 Freud’s Dream 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Withalittlebit 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Silver 7-2 4th

7th:OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 One Fast Bullet 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #11 My Piano Man 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #15 Cosmic King 5-1 WON ($9.70)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Question here revolves around what kind of pace battle we see develop between Bambi Bound and Ultimo Principe. And of course, either is dangerous loose. Good race..

Best Value: #8 Awesome Arceno 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Grand Strategy 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #9 The Fed Eased 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 David the Great 4-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 SCR
Best Value: #11 Vixen’s Roar 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #14 Honey Mou 7-2 3rd

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-15
5: 7
6: 5-6-7-8
7: 12
8: 4-8-9
9: 11-14

2x1x4x1x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-5-6-7-8
7: 12
8: 3-4-6-8-9-10
9: 11-14

6x1x6x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

CALDER RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, Super)

#3 Rockitude 15-1: Rock Hard Ten colt makes second career start and moves to proper surface for pedigree in the process. Half brother General John B was a real horse, winning the ’05 Turf Paradise Derby en route to half length beat in Santa Anita Derby behind Buzzard’s Bay and ahead of Wilko and Giacomo. Should like the two turns and the lawn and connections ensure the right price. Worth a flyer.. 7th

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 My Perfect Light 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kathern’s Kitten 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Ratoath Special 5-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Our Delight 10-1 7th

HAWTHORNE

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, .50 Tri, .10 Super)

Best Value: #7 Prime Speed 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Prospect Knight 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Electric Alphabet 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Jilly From Philly 7-2 6th

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, Place Pick All, DD, Super)

Pedigree fan alert! #7 Milania (Bernardini) is out of Bobby Frankel’s wonderful Keeper Hill and #3 Stormy Randie (Stormy Atlantic) is a half to the tragic Itty Bitty Pretty (El Corredor) and excellent MGSW Greeley’s Conquest (Mr. Greeley..)

Most Likely: #7 Milania 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Sage d’Oro 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Late SCR
Super Add: #3 Stormy Randie 5-1 5th

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES (BUT KEEP CHECKING W/ STAKE OFF/TURF LATE)

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group and a treacherous way to start $90k P6 C/O sequence..

Most Likely: #15 Settle for Medal 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Eversoul 8-1 WON via DQ ($23.40)
Next Best: #16 Same Old Wish 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Assured Victory 8-1 2nd via DQ

$1  Exacta  (7-1)  Paid $98.75
$1  Trifecta  (7-1-15)  Paid $685.00

5th: MSN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 McCarren Pink 4-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #5 Union Victory 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Langsyne 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Mistretta 15-1 6th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Maspeth Princess 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lucy Stragmore 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Thunder Princess 5-2 4th

7th: May Night, 2yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Lady Cohiba 2-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #5 Cute Cadet 20-1 4th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Fun betting race. For those not playing P6 or P4, this is spot to pitch a tent with no shortage of price options to work from. Favored Risk a Chance (5-2) is OK returning to the main track after turf flops, but there’s plenty of speed to keep her honest if she goes back to being interested in the front end..

Best Value: #9 Bailzee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Beautiful Risk 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Pretty Cozzy 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Risk a Chance 5-2 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #16 Grangerado 6-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Doodleman 10-1 7th

<$100 P5 P6 Play:

4: 1-7-15-16
5: 7
6: 7/SCR-8
7: 10
8: 3-7-9
9: 7-16

4x1x2x1x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-7/SCR-8-11
7: 6-10
8: 3-5-7-9
9: 7-16

4x2x4x2 = 64 x .50 = $32

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Adam Rides Again 4-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Medieval Sword 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Ocean Seven 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #2 Out of Your Mind 30-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Pedigree abound here.. #2 Common Bond (Hard Spun) a half to To Honor and Serve (Bernardini); #3 D’ Pepjo (Hard Spun) a half to Lost in the Fog (Lost Soldier); #4 School Spirit (Pulpit) a half to Big Truck (Hook and Ladder); #9 Perfect Trippi (Trippi) a half to Turbulent Descent (Congrats); #12 Market Strike (After Market) a half to 18x winner Double Down Vin Man (Out of Place); #14 Film Shot (Distorted Humor) out of the MGSW Film Maker (Dynaformer); AE-15 Junebugred (Corinthian) a half to Joe Six Pack (Silver Deputy)..

Most Likely: #7 Love to Run 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Rise Against 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Trusted Choice 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Common Bond 8-1 6th
Super Add: #3 D’ Pepjo 20-1 9th

8th: 55th Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Emerald Beech is OK and certainly one of the ones, but 8-5? No thanks. Mekong Melody came down off a beating in the E. P. Taylor last year and won this. Hasay, Musical Rain and Hit It Rich all offer value. Good way to end the turf stakes year in New York..

Best Value: #4 Hasay 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Mekong Melody 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Musical Rain 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Emerald Beech 8-5 5th

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Win for the Zipper 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Van Tassel 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Post Pattern 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Summer Breezing 6-1 WON ($14.20)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-10
7: 7-8
8: 3-4-5-6-7
9: 2-3-8-10

3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: 21st Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Good group of soph gals, and a couple here can juice up board..

Most Likely: #6 Smart Sting 5-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Groupie Doll 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Marketing Mix 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Hungry Island 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 New Normal 12-1 9th

 

Took beat in first leg of AQU P6 before hooking winners together thereafter for $420 P4 and nice string of P3’s. Hope everryone got a little something Thursday… $188k triple carry for Friday in New York, while Golden Gate’s sextet jackpot soared to $335k and HollyPark has one for $40k!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Boys at Toscanova likely tighter now, but this isn’t a pack of marshmallows..

Best Value: #3 Hillswick 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Boys at Toscanova 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Starforaday 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Leave of Absence 4-1 4th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$188k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Count Catamount 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Almoradi 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ever a Friend 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Dr. W 15-1 9th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Perfect Drive 6-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #1 Unbridled Danger 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Leap Day 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Digger Karakorum 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Glacier Bay 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Mutiny 6-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Kid Curry 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Gamblin Fever 12-1 8th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Not sure this is as open and shut as you’d be led to believe with Sneaky Girl 0/5 at a mile. Could improving Necessary Luxury or one dimensional She’s My Image get loose as lone speed?

Most Likely: #8 Sneaky Girl 7-5 5th
Next Best: #7 There Goes Molly 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Air Mail 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Wise Choice 10-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Quirky, difficult group with many exiting career bests that make them eligible for step back. No shortage of speed signed on here too..

Most Likely: #4 Associate 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #5 Bert B Don 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Pistols at Dawn 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 SCR

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Brutally tough finish to sequence with plethora of turf pedigreed juvies involved..

Best Value: #8 Plausibly 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Jetameno 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Balance the Budget 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Two Seventeen 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-8
5: 2
6: 3-5
7: 8
8: 4-5-8
9: 2-3-8-10-12

2x1x2x1x3x5 = 60 x $2 = $120

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 3-7-8
8: 4-5-8
9: 2-3-5-8-9-10-11-12

2x3x3x8 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Boys at Toscanova likely tighter now, but this isn’t a pack of marshmallows..

Best Value: #3 Hillswick 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Boys at Toscanova 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Starforaday 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Leave of Absence 4-1 4th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$188k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Count Catamount 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Almoradi 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ever a Friend 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Dr. W 15-1 9th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Perfect Drive 6-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #1 Unbridled Danger 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Leap Day 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Digger Karakorum 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Glacier Bay 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Mutiny 6-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Kid Curry 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Gamblin Fever 12-1 8th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Not sure this is as open and shut as you’d be led to believe with Sneaky Girl 0/5 at a mile. Could improving Necessary Luxury or one dimensional She’s My Image get loose as lone speed?

Most Likely: #8 Sneaky Girl 7-5 5th
Next Best: #7 There Goes Molly 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Air Mail 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Wise Choice 10-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Quirky, difficult group with many exiting career bests that make them eligible for step back. No shortage of speed signed on here too..

Most Likely: #4 Associate 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #5 Bert B Don 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Pistols at Dawn 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 SCR

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Brutally tough finish to sequence with plethora of turf pedigreed juvies involved..

Best Value: #8 Plausibly 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Jetameno 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Balance the Budget 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Two Seventeen 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-8
5: 2
6: 3-5
7: 8
8: 4-5-8
9: 2-3-8-10-12

2x1x2x1x3x5 = 60 x $2 = $120

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 3-7-8
8: 4-5-8
9: 2-3-5-8-9-10-11-12

2x3x3x8 = 144 x .50 = $72