GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Thomasquito 5-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Badleroibrown 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Call in Rich 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 White Hill 4-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 1 in top 2 slots with 3-4-9-10 (1x4x3x2 + 4x1x3x2 = 480 x .10 = $4.80

7th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

First race at a mile and a sixteenth since the reconfiguration of Gulfstream. The addition of a second finish line makes it possible but races still will start rather close to the turn. Based on the 9f results the last few seasons at Hallandale, inside posts and speed should be advantageous..

SCR #1 Nachas and Joy..

Most Likely: #6 Sarava’s Dancer 5-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Angel’s Tune 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 My People 8-1 6th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Shakeira 5-2 DH-3rd
Best Value: #9 Ormolu 8-1 8th
Next Best: #13 Too Clever by Half 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Our Sweet Surprise 15-1 5th

9th: 32nd Spectacular Bid, 2yo, 6f (DD, Super)

Luke of York has SCR’d..

Best Value: #7 Ancient Rome 4-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Town Prize 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Vexor 3-1 6th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

This is a curious group with the ones that have had the most tries being the ones that ‘look best’ at first blush. Kathleen O’Connell’s Folk Singer though has endured three off turf starts across town since August and ran by far his best career race on the Calder lawn before that. Gets slick Luis Saez and may have license to get loose on the lead..

Best Value: #7 FOLK SINGER 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #10 The Laurels 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Volcano Run 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Scappare 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Dr. Kenney 5-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-3-9-10
7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2-9-13
9: 7
10: 7-10

4x3x4x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2-5-9-13
9: 7
10: 3-7-8-10-11

3x5x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

If you get 7-2 on Miss Radiance, it will be the gift of a lifetime. Should be favored to the tune of 6-5..

Most Likely: #3 Miss Radiance 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Solar Wind 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Lady Liam 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Perfect Feat 15-1 6th

6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Unusual Jazz 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #1 Lodi Red 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Adam Suances 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Starspangled Heat 7-2 5th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Position A 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #2 Hasty Trend 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Summers at Delmar 6-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Looking for Candy 6-1 4th

8th: 33rd Native Diver (G3), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Rescue Squad 4-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tres Borrachos 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Tweebster 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Eldaafer 5-1 5th

9th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 My Sweet Candy 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 June Cleaver 5-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #6 She’s a Minx 9-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Sabouli 20-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Love My Way 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-6
7: 2-4-8
8: 3-4-6
9: 1-3-6-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I’m completely befuddled here and will push the all button in the P4..

Best Value: #6 Tater Taunter 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Social Statement 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Siggi the Alien 3-1 WON ($14.80)
Super Add: #8 Mayday Maria 15-1 6th

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Great Gracie Dane (2-1) & Lemon Tiger (5-2) are fine, but neither is significantly better than the 4 below that are all better priced..

Most Likely: #2 Considerate 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #8 Glory in Motion 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Upper East Sider 15-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Loyal Shadow 8-1 3rd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Regal Warrior 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Joe Corrigan 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Global Power 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Lubango 5-2 4th

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Bishop of Nola 9-5 5th
Best Value: #6 Judge Well 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Ocean Seven 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Parc Des Princes 8-1 DH-3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: ALL (7)
7: 2-8
8: 2-6-9
9: 1-6-9

8x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4TH & 6TH OFF THE TURF; 8TH REMAINS ON ‘SOFT’ LAWN

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Stanford Dolly 8-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Famous Rose 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #13 Judicial Leader 4-1 WON ($12.20)

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value:#6 King Rock 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Our Brave Warrior 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Anew 6-5 7th
Super Add: #3 American Classic 8-1 ($23.20)

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Only 1-3-6-10 from original entrants and 12-13-14 from MTO’s run. As Andy Serling mentioned on ATR Tuesday, Grausmark’s Take Down Two was going to be as attractive as the MTO’s if it came off the grass..

Most Likely: #6 Take Down Two 4th
Next Best: #14 High Stakes Player WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #13 Stud Muffin 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

What’s so special about Honey Mou for us to take 9-5 on her?

Best Value: #3 Simple Exchange 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Justleavemealone 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Beautifulnightmare 4-1 WON ($8.30)
Super Add: #1 Readygetsgold 8-1 3rd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Soft turf a mitigating factor here..

Best Value: #9 Abilio 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 One Note Samba 5-2  5th
Exotics Use: #1 War Hoot 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Glacier Bay 8-1 7th

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Before singling the favorite here, recall Serling’s Formulator stat from Tuesday that Linda Rice enters the ’11 winter meet 1 for 30+ going turf to AQU Inner (#8 Storm Island/3-1)..

Best Value: #4 Jitalian 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Prince Dubai 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Storm Island 3-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Merlin Bay 12-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 7-12
5: 2-5-6
6: 6
7: 3-7
8: 4-9
9: 4-6-8

2x3x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-13-14
7: 1-3-4-7
8: 1-4-9
9: 4-5-6-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (14/4/9/6) Paid $290.00

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Great start to fun carryover sequence with half brother to To Honor and Serve (Common Bond) and Borrego (Soul of Borrego) among these juvies..

Most Likely: #3 Common Bond 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Thessalonian 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ventura Bar 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Junebugred 12-1 WON ($19.40)

6th: 90th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Tough to get creative here with top three choices looking simply better than the price options..

Most Likely: #9 Indyniable 4-1 10th
Next Best: #1e Live Oak entry 7-2 4th/6th
Exotics Use: #8 Disposablepleasure 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #4 Wildcat’s Smile 8-1 2nd

7th: 98th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This set of juvy lads is a bit more intriguing than the filly counterpart with son of Catinca (Managed Account) well-priced coming in. Stephanoatsee is out of the magical mare Oatsee who counts Shackleford, Baghdaria and Lady Joanne among her foals and Souper Speedy is yet another stake candidate on the day for Mrs. Weber’s Live Oak Plantation as a homebred half to Brilliant Speed..

Best Value: #7 Managed Account 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Stephanoatsee 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Souper Speedy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 El Padrino 7-2 3rd

8th: 23rd Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Should one of the entrymates win the Demoiselle and Souper Speedy the Remsen, Mrs. Weber could find herself in an unprecedented position with a To Honor and Serve victory here. Would be shocked if any owner has ever won three straight graded stakes events in a row in New York..

Most Likely: #5 To Honor and Serve 7-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1e Pletcher-Repole entry 5-2 3rd/5th
Next Best: #4 Hymm Book 8-1 2nd

9th: 116th Gazelle (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)

As nice as it would be for Awesome Feather to hold it together for a final race and retire undefeated, she is a complete play-against at a short price. Team Todd looks pretty imposing here with three very capable soph gals attacking this historic event. Note there is plenty of pace pressure involved here and that could open the door for closing New York bred Miss Valentine at a healthy number. Excellent assembly..

Most Likely: #2 R Gypsy Gold 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Miss Valentine 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Savvy Supreme 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Love and Pride 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Draw It 6-1 2nd

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fortissi More 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #1 Stephen’s Revenge 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Living Right 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Barrel of Love 12-1 7th

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-7-8
6: 1-8-9
7: 1-2-6-7
8: 5
9: 1-2
10: 6

4x3x4x1x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-6-7
8: 1-5
9: 1-2-5-6-8
10: 1-6-7

4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 STEVIE JONES 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Untethered 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Santonio d’Oro 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Picky Picky 12-1 4th

4th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Givhans Ferry 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Best of Times 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 California Gal 12-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Soft Whisper 3-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Sherp 3-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Brown Eyed Jozi 10-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #1 Voodoo Daddy 2-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Forever Faithful 8-1 2nd

9th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously well-matched group. I’m using 6 in multis..

Best Value: #3 Spirited Miss 6-1 10th
Next Best: #6 On Fire Baby 3-1 ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Glinda the Good 5-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Karlovy Vary 8-1 7th

10th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Daddy Nose Best 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #10 Leatherwood 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Pacific Nights 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Magical Season 8-1 7th

11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Ever So Lucky ran a monstrously big debut and young horses frequently regress off that kind of performance. Worthy fave but not without question marks stretching out on 15 days turnaround..

Most Likely: #1 Ever So Lucky 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Gemologist 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #8 Atigun 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Timely Tally 10-1 3rd

12th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Ender Knievel 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 In Jeopardy 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Big John B 3-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bridge Loan 4-1 6th

<$200 P5 Play:

8: 1-5-12
9: 3-6-8-9-10-11
10: 3-4-7-10
11: 1-9
12: 8

3x6x4x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-6-8-9-10-11
10: 3-4-7-10
11: 1-8-9
12: 5-8

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving! Outstanding action all over the place the next three days, but Churchill and Hollywood slates are particularly attractive..

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not playing the P6, but worth starting the Downs look here with several enticing prices involved..

Original top selection #7 Charming Endeavour (5-1) has SCR’d..

Best Value: #3 Humor’s Punch 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Tiban 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #8 R Fast Cat 8-1 WON ($21.40)
Super Add: #1 Heiden 3-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

I’ve been a sucker for Depeche Chat from Day One and the time to have him is likely first off the break. There’s a lot of speed in this and he should be motoring late..

Best Value: #4 Depeche Chat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Light Up the Score 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Temp 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Beamer 6-1 8th

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tough group given there are 4-5 that feel similar. Those close to pace may haveedge with lack of lick signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Revelstoke 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Tap Tap Tapping 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Heavenly Landing 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 She’s Picky 5-1 6th

10th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Agastache 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Dubious Miss 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Uncle Brent 3-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Good Lord 8-1 3rd

11th: 137th Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

They’ve been running this race at the Downs as long as they’ve run the Derby, and it’s status as an important late season test is enhanced by the Championship implications associated with Flat Out (Elder Male) and Ruler On Ice (3yo Male). Every runner in this Clark is exiting a stake including 5 from Breeders’ Cup events, 3 each from the Ack Ack and Fayette and one each from the Oklahoma Derby and Jimmy V. If you think back to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, one scenario that was floated going in was Game On Dude taking them a long way on a loose lead. That idea played out. It is not hard to envision a similar pace concept playing out the exact same way here with Jimmy Baker’s Downs-loving Will’s Wildcat. You can use Flat Out, Ruler On Ice and Wise Dan — the logicals — liberally, but if you want to pick a way to attack the race off a big number, keying around 30-1 Will’s Wildcat is a viable approach. I’ll play heavily off Will’s Wildcat to run the Game On Dude race and top the tabs with Charlie Lopresti who you should recall lost this race via DQ a year ago when Wise Dan’s half brother Successful Dan was taken down in favor of Giant Oak..

Most Likely: #11 Wise Dan 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #10 Will’s Wildcat 30-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Flat Out 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Ruler On Ice 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Pleasant Prince 20-1 12th

12th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Some way to end a good sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Traci’s Thunder 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #11 Leather Laces 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Champ Laila 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Kentucky Peaches 12-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Hot Vision 12-1 6th

<$75 P5 Play:

8: 4-5-7
9: 4-8
10: 2-3-6
11: 1-6-10-11
12: 3-11

3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-8
10: 2-3-6
11: 1-6-7-10-11
12: 3-5-6-8-11

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

That’s a crazy ML price on 2nd timer Solid South whose debut is contentious with the best here..

Most Likely: #9 Late Night Sky 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Solid South 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Chickie Charms 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Qatar’s Pearl 3-1 4th

4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Doubledown On Ten 5-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Genius 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Grambling Gold SCR’D
Exotics Use: #1 Fiarano 5-1 2nd

5th: 20th Miesque (G3), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Your Special Day 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Assateague SCR’D
Exotics Use: #7 More Than Love 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #1 Island Paradise 3-1 3rd

6th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Full’s Kris S. 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Aladino 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 My Slew 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Lethal Intent 5-1 8th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I hate these..

Most Likely: #2 Jairzihno 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Utopian 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Yodelen Dan 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Antidote 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Hiatus 6-1 7th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Amazed to see High Resolve — last seen under Greg Gilchrist’s watch 2 years ago — back in the PP’s..

Most Likely: #4 Include Me Out 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Teddy’s Promise 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Tales in Excess 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 High Resolve 5-1 7th

9th: 30th Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Outstanding lineup for this headlined by hard-hitting Division Leader Never Retreat (10/5-2-1 this year) and 3 from Graham Motion including defending winner Gypsy’s Warning..

Most Likely: #8 Never Retreat 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Gypsy’s Warning 6-1 —
Next Best: #1 Unbridled’s Humor 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 All Star Heart SCR’D

SCR ADD: #7 Star Billing 12-1 WON ($23.40)

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Virginia Way 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #4 Creston Cutie 7-2
Exotics Use: #14 Zohrah 7-2 —
Best Value: #3 Warren’s Boogie 10-1 —
Hi-5 Play: #7 Satin Bouquet SCR’D

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7-8
8: 4-6
9: 1-5-8
10: 3-4-13-14

5x2x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60