Interesting afternoon at NY and FL Friday with chalky Aqueduct quad coming in and lucrative Gulfstream P4 proving achingly elusive. Fun afternoon of racing ahead. More later but off to Schenectady now for “Loose on the Lead” on CapOTB TV-12 with Graham Motion and Eoin Harty visiting..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Butler Cabin 4-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Troponin 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Copper Forest 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Revelator 6-1 5th

7th: 39th Busanda, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Doesn’t feel like there is much mystery to this. Could Motion, KMc and Contessa fill the triples in both of these stakes?

Most Likely: #1 Sweet Seventeen 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bourbonstreetgirl 7-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Captivating Lass 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #7 Terralba 10-1 4th

8th: 37th Count Fleet, 3yo, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Quirky little running of this with three inside runners all stretching out around 2 turns for the first time. If left to themselves, there is a possibility that some combination of them utilize typically slick strip to take field a long way. Contessa Speightstown rig may get first run, a situation in which pesky Cohen is handy. Dominguez gets Godolphin BC Juvy disappointment Alpha and is the right guy to get Bernardini colt back to in-touch-with-field trip, but 4-5 is a little tough to take. Can’t discount Motion’s Shackleford sib Stephanoatsee in thiss pot either. Fun edition of this kickoff towards the Wood Memorial..

Best Value: #6 Speightscity 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Alpha 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Stephanoatsee 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 How Do I Win 12-1 4th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tannery Town 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Brechin 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Exciting Missle 20-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Late SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5
7: 1-3-5
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 1-4

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/12′ (P3, DD, Super)

Race certainly goes through Pletcher-Werthheimer bay miss Medolina, but hard not to wonder about upside of Joe Shields’ homebred Game Fair from Motion out of owner’s MGSW mare Passing Shot. A forgotten contemporary of Sightseek, You, Storm Flag Flying and Wild Spirit, the A.P. Indy daughter won ’03 Personal Ensign as part of a $600k career but seems to be having a difficult time carrying foals with Game Fair only her 2nd registered drop..

Most Likely: #3 Medolina 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Game Fair 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Ten K Cat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Personally Yours 8-1 6th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Plenty of early sophs with upside here and a bit of a conundrum with 4 firsters and 5 second time starters among them..

Most Likely: #6 Teeth of the Dog 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Twill Be 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Unbridled Minister 4-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Thessalonian 8-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$59k P5 carryover starts here and race will be closely scrutinized with presence of ultra-impressive debut winners Discreet Dancer and One Sock Down..

Most Likely: #9 Discreet Dancer 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 One Sock Down 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Two Is to Many 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 In the Beat 8-1 7th

8th: CLM, 4+, 9f-T/72′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Mean Sax 8-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Chosen Empire 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Very Fair 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Navy Wings 30-1 7th

9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

As discussed with Mike Welsch and Gus Alonso Friday on ATR, a deep and treacherous seven-eighths heat that doesn’t allow for a multi-race breather ahead of 14 horse feature that follows. Adding to the difficulty is 10+ month returnees Golden Moka, Latigo Shore and Admiral Perry. And note that only Close It Out is lone participant that has seen GP winner’s circle..

Best Value: #7 Strike Ahead 10-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Shrewd One 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Close It Out 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Admiral Perry 6-1 5th

10th: 12th Marshua’s River (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/72′ (DD, Super)

This is some deep group for $100,000. Daveron and Tapitsfly less than 2 lengths apart when 1-2 in Ballston Spa and could see this coming down to the same pair again today. Daveron purchased by Mrs. Weber for Live Oak broodmare band, but win here would be a nice send off. Four year old Louvakhova and 5yo La Reine Lionne have potential to be division forces in ’12. Casse’s Elusive love is going to be lost on the board and has chance to juice exotics..

Most Likely: #3 Daveron 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 La Reine Lionne 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Louvakhova 4-1 12th
Exotics Use: #10 Tapitsfly 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Elusive Love 12-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T/12′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

$27k Super Hi-5 carryover here and for third day in a row an uber-contentious turf test..

Best Value: #9 Slinger 12-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Apse 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Turkish 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Cars and Trucks 3-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Age of Exploration 12-1 WON ($13.00)

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 4-9
8: 1-7-8-9
9: 7-8
10: 3-6-9
11: 3-6-9

2x4x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-7-8-9
9: 7-8
10: 3-6-9
11: 3-4-6-8-9-10

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: 12th Sham (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Santa Anita Derby Trail starts here, and while Secret Circle is the likely winner today, the horse to be keeping tabs on is Harty’s Out of Bounds. By Discreet Cat out of MGSW Unbridled Elaine and a half to GSW Etched, the 17 hand head-turner should get better and better with experience and added ground..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Circle 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Hierro 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Out of Bounds 5-1 WON ($22.60)

6th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Almost certain to be a productive group with 6 firsters including $1,000,000 Welter Weight (Bolton/Stonestreet) and already seen Consulado (Puype), Bobby Flay (Baffert) and Congrats Ski (Walsh) exiting well-regarded heat won by Tenacious Thomas..

Best Value: #5 Congrats Ski 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Consulado 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Welter Weight 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Bobby Flay 5-1 5th

8th: 75th San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tweebster 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Massone 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tres Borrachos 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Uh Oh Bango 9-2 WON ($16.00)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent group to start the late quad with two of the top 3 favorites appearing vulnerable. 3-1 Lynette is stretching out for the first time and 7-2 Royal Lahaina outposted and needing improvement to contend..

Best Value: #1 Royal Sighting 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Giant Sensation 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Cherokee Trick 10-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Shocking Behavior 12-1 7th

7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Using the experience of our own Dee Tee Stables’ City Zip colt My Pal of Pals as the example, 3-1 Ampersand is almost certainly a turf horse..

Best Value: #2 Get in the Game 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Saxaphone Len 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Suspicious U 5-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Mad Bomber 8-1 8th

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Wee Freudian 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Surprise Strike 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 City Trooper 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Off the Jak 8-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Will be interesting to see the action at the claim box with Irish Eddie having a giant fire sale tag on and Shoutout having appeal to someone willing to wait for grass season or ship him south. Mahfouz, now with Rudy Rod, has been gone nearly 2 years and gets Ramon. Odd assembly..

Best Value: #10 Mahfouz 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Irish Eddie 8-5 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Shoutout 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Super Add: #7 Exact Again 5-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6-8
7: 2-5
8: 1-3-5-7-8
9: 6-8-10

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC, F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Huge SCR of fave #5 Afleet Lass..

Best Value: #9 Sookie Stackhouse 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Wyatt’s Women 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Flying Trip 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Devilish Lady 6-1 5th

7th: CLM, 4+, 5f-T/72′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Of course he can win, but Silver Timber’s best days are behind him..

Most Likely: #1 Classical Closing 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Matt’s a Giant 12-1 WON ($49.60)
Next Best: #10 Silver Timber 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Speight the Halo 12-1 6th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

New 3yo’s and a very intriguing group..

Most Likely: #2 Elusive Story 7-2 7th
Next Best: #7 Late Night Action 8-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Lightly Wound 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #6 Nonno’s Boy 12-1 2nd

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Miss Netta is OK, but she figures to be overbet off BC & Frizette appearances. Plenty of viable options with rapidly developing sophs at this time of year..

Best Value: #2 Refining 5-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Miss Netta 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #7 The Cat’s All That 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Golden History 8-1 6th

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Zulu Warrior 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Le Grand Artiste 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Romantic Channel 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 National Security 3-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Swaggaboy 4-1 10th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 6-9
7: 1-3-4-10
8: 2-4-7
9: 2-6
10: 4-6

2x4x3x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50/$75/$100 P4 Plays:

7: 1-3-4-10
8: 2-4-7
9: 2-6
10: 4-6-7-9 (8-11) (2-5)

<$50: 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
<$75: 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
<$100: 4x3x2x8 = 192 x .50 = $96

Warm wishes for a very Happy, Healthy New Year to ATR listeners and Derby Trailers! Year ended with a flourish of action from New York to Florida to California Saturday with some wild swings of hits and misses. Hope you had a fun finish to ’11 and are ready to start 2012 off with another good set of cards at AQU, GP and SA. Arcadia is the focus after waking up late and with a $123k P6 carryover available on a harrowing sextet. Note that Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita run on the quasi-holiday Monday and ATR returns live from the seasonal break at 9a ET!

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$123k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Indian Knight 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Attentintodetail 8-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Jack Reacher 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Absolutcat 9-2 WON ($8.80)

5th: 8th Kalookan Queen H., F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rumor 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #7 Saint Isabelle 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bella Diamante 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Big Tiz 4-1 3rd

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 There Is No Limit 6-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Princess Suances 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Teroda 5-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Hakuchi 8-1 5th

7th: CLM, 4yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mentidoso 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Sir Ed 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Tales of Tigger 7-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Mack’s Gold Bullet 9-2 WON ($10.80)

8th: 44th Bobby Frankel (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

How exactly are you supposed to seperate these six? Yeesh.. Interchangeable set.

Best Value: #6 Miss Mittagong 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 City to City 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Turning Top 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Bauble Queen 5-1 WON ($8.80)

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

About 8 or 9 here look eligible. Tough way to end sequences..

Best Value: #1 A.P. Corsair 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Sabe 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 On a Burner 8-1 9th
Super Add: #14 Rass Stone 5-1 WON ($13.20)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Tizpat 12-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 8-9
5: 6
6: 3-9-10
7: 2-4
8: 3-6
9: 1-6-7

2x1x3x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-9-10
7: 2-4
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 1-6-7-8-13-14

3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72