NY, Cal C/O’s pepper Derby Trail stakes Saturday
Saturday, February 4th, 2012AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Race to watch with any number of nicely-bred, lightly-raced and well-matched 3yo’s. Inflation Target is a half to the fast Rattlesnake Bridge and firster Luckysdream a half to Mrs. Weber’s turf routing MSW My Lordship. Ashado son Steele Road and Inflation Target were close behind next out LRL stake winner Beggarthyneighbor and Wild Target ran into tough Hardened Wildcat in his debut. Mr. Ast moves to Levine and gets Ramon. Excellent group, many of which might normally have gone to Florida for the winter if not for the NY purse boost..
Most Likely: #4 Steele Road 9-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Wild Target 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Inflation Target 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Mr. Beer Goggles 6-1 4th
5th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$99k Double C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #7 Hook and Lateral 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Digital Joe 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Mr. Rosenthal 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 S. Z. Madison 12-1 4th
6th: 73rd Correction, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Nicole H 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Winning Image 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Golden Mystery 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Streaker 5-1 5th
7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Start of the P4 so watch the board for some clues to this tricky group of Empire colts and geldings. There are angles galore here with several 2nd timers from sharp outfits stretching out (Pearl of Wisdom, Fr. Peter’s Missal, Wistful Wildcat, Rkatsiteli) and jockey upgrades like Dominguez getting on Zetterholm..
Most Likely: #1 Pearl of Wisdom 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #9 Rkatsiteli 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Wistful Wildcat 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Zetterholm 3-1 WON ($5.90)
8th: 119th Toboggan (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Good edition of this great old standard which dates back to late 19th Century Bronx oval Morris Park. Defending winner #1a Calibrachoa figures tough again and would join impressive list of back-to-back winners of this famed event that includes Al Fried’s Affirmed Success (2002-03), Rippey (1948-49), Greentree’s Devil Diver (1943-44), Geo. Widener’s Hall of Famer Eight Thirty (1940-41), Brookmeade’s Okapi (1933-34), J. E. Widener’s Osmand (1928-29), High Noon (1915-16) and Augie Belmont’s Octagon (1897-98). Tony Dutrow portion of Dubb ownership entry (#2b Candyman E) is in career best form and merits serious consideration on your multi tickets..
SCR #6 J J’s Luck Train..
Most Likely: #2b (POE) Calibrachoa 7-5 WON ($2.90)/3rd
Next Best: #1a (POE) Candyman E 9-5 4th/5th
9th: 132nd Withers (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)
Long a late season sophomore staple, The Withers is cleverly being revitalized here to add a second graded event, with next month’s Gotham, to the run up toward the Wood Memorial. Alpha seeks to become Kiaran McLaughlin’s third Withers winner (Divine Park, Mr. Fantasy) off a strong showing in the Count Fleet to start his 3yo campaign. Bernardini homebred from Darley has had well-publicized deportment issues pre-race, but otherwise looks exceedingly formidable against solid but undistinguished set of foes..
SCR #3 Swag Daddy..
Most Likely: #7 Alpha 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #4 King Kid 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tiger Walk 6-1 3rd
10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)
Most Likely: #10 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Keechi Bullet 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Hopeful Boy 3-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Jitalian 12-1 4th
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 1-4-7
6: 1-7
7: 1-4-5-8-9
8: 2
9: 7
10: 5-8-10
3x2x5x1x1x3 = 90 x $2 = $180
$2 Pick 6 (4/1/5/2,6/3,7/3) Paid $12.80 (5OF6) x 3 = $38.40
$50/$25 P4 Plays:
7: 1-4-5-8-9
8: 1-2
9: 7
10: 2-5-7-8-10
5x2x1x5 = $50 ($25 for .50)
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
11th: Sam F. Davis (G3) 3yo, 8.5f
Tampa prep regularly quirky. Don’t want any part of low number on Team Valor turf horse State of Play and only including Eckabroni defensively with Pletcher horses in Florida performing over the top. Battle Hardened and Prospective are the two most serious horses in the field and are well-priced. Neck ‘n Neck is steadily improving for Wilkes. Will likely have GP Derby winner Reveron 3rd on my exotic tickets with top pair..
Best Value: #3 Battle Hardened 12-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #11 Prospective 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Eckabroni 7-2 11th
Super Add: #6 Neck ‘n Neck 5-1 5th
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, Place Pick All, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Mile High Magic 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Eaton Hall 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Immaculate 12-1 WON ($19.40)
2nd: CLM-$12.5k/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Seek the Light 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Warren’s Patron 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Me Salty 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Jeffery’s Groove 8-1 13th
3rd: 53rd Arcadia (G2), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Hard to envision Mr. Commons being bested here..
Most Likely: #8 Mr. Commons 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #6 Willyconker 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Calimonico 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Pathfork 5-2 6th
4th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #10 Jonny’s Choice 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Real Conundrum 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Good Luck Redd 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Gifted Monarch 12-1 5th
5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$65k P6 C/O starts here..
Nothing clever to impart with obvious set of faves just appearing to have edge..
Best Value: #7 Mirror Ball 9-2 10th
Next Best: #10 Miss Communication 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Belle Passe 5-2 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #1 Ramona’s Ride 8-1 9th
<$75 P5 Play:
1: 5-6
2: 2-3-6-7-8-10
3: 8
4: 5-7-10
5: 1-2-7-10
2x6x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: 74th Robert B. Lewis (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Strong set of sophs for this lead up to the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby with top runners from the HOL Futurity and more. Beyond the obvious, Isn’t He Clever’s stretchout off Riley Allison demolition is worth following and supporting. Development of Royal Delta brother Empire Way another sub-plot here and binocular set says he ‘s still kind of torpid..
Best Value: #1 Isn’t He Clever 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Rousing Sermon 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Liason 9-5 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #5 Sky Kingdom 6-1 5th
7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Very good, deep ALW going 9 panels on the lawn..
Best Value: #1 Truism 6-1 9th
Next Best: #12 Unusual Jazz 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Twin Six 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Depriciable 8-1 6th
8th: 64th Strub (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)
As in the Arcadia with Mr. Commons, Tapizar will take some beating. Doubt anyone can run with him early and this strip will make him hard to reel in..
Most Likely: #7 Tapizar 6-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Eagle 9-2 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #2 Prayer for Relief 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Balladry 8-1 5th
9th: CLM-$25k, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #2 Crossing the Line 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #12 Wild Revenge 12-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Mark the Bench 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Loro 6-1 3rd
10th: OC-$40k/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)
Thumbs up to Hammer for carding a premium ALW like this to end great card. Setsuko back and Carla Gaines has an unexploded powderkeg in American Blend..
Most Likely: #10 American Blend 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Industry Leader 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Setsuko 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Graeme Crackerjack 9-2 4th
<$200 P6 Play:
5: 1-2-7-10
6: 1-2-5-6
7: 1
8: 7
9: 2-3-12
10: 9-10
4x4x1x1x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-2-11-12
8: 2-4-7
9: 2-3-12
10: 1-4-9-10
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72