GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Desert Storm 3-1: Mott-WinStar Tiznow ran off wk ago.. 3rd
Best Value: #6 Good Morning Diva 5-1: Wide 3rd in Gentleman’s Bet romp.. WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Z Vilna 5-2: First shot for Pletcher to reach win #3k.. 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Morgan’s Guerilla 6-1: Maker 5/2-2-1 with winter MSW firsters.. 2nd

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Solid group of sophs that are currently a cut below the stakes level. Eyes will be on Pletcher pair including Hopeful show runner Big Blue Nation and visually impressive maiden-breaker Spring Hill Farm..

Most Likely: #4 Spring Hill Farm 5-2: Modest Evans dispersal buy may be lone speed.. WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Two is Too Many 8-1: Faced Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, Reveron.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Unbridled Minister 3-1: McPeek debut winner in front of Teeth of the Dog.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Big Blue Nation 5-1: Needed time after both starts; Likely ready fresh.. 4th

4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

[i]Should Pletcher be shut out to this point, he will have opportunity for 3,000th win with Majestic Number, a horse that was named after the first winner of his career, a MD-bred by Polish Numbers that bested $80k MDN CLMers at Gulfstream 1/26/96 under Jerry Bailey..I]

Most Likely: #5 Excess Liquidity 6-1: Malibu Moon from C. Brown should be sharper 2nd out.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Rise Against 5-2: Discreet Cat from R. Dutrow not flattered by Eckabroni.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 Majestic Number 6-1: See above; You can’t make this stuff up.. WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Fort Boonesborough 10-1: Fawkes 1ster half to MGSW Twilight Road.. 2nd

5th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

First turf event of day after week of rain. Possible that everything but G1 GP Turf H. comes off lawn..

Most Likely: #8 Golden Ticket 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Bridge Loan 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Ragazzi 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Common Bond 8-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-5-6
3: 2-3-4-7
4: 2-5-9
5: 1-3-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 P4 (6-4-9-8) $152.60

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Glad this isn’t in the P5 or a P4 sequence. This race has a chaos feel too it despite presence of top connections/pedigrees..

Most Likely: #8 Sanadaat 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Paradol 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Silent Fright 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Claire’s Song 4-1 2nd

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f-T/12′ (P6, P3, DD, Super)

If this stays on turf, 12-1 Final Count appeals getting Solis, enjoying cozy draw and displaying a predilection for off going..

Best Value: #2 FINAL COUNT 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Fastest Magician 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mobilizer 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Bergerac 5-1 2nd

OFF THE TURF: 11-12-4

8th: 61st Hutcheson (G2), 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Il Villano has become a mojo horse with those looking to be against Thunder Moccasin and Ever So Lucky. Sheppard was not exactly decisive about Ever So Lucky for this, a sign that can point to iffy performances. Can’t find reason to be all that eager to go against Thunder Moccasin who has had 7 weeks into this after smashing debut which went flattered by Ender Knieval, Panthro and Stealcase. And you may have noticed that Pletcher has been doing OK at Gulfstream this winter..

Ever So Lucky a SCR..

Most Likely: #3 Thunder Moccasin 7-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #5 Il Villano 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Quick Wit 6-1 3rd

9th: 67th Suwannee River (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T/72′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Denomination 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Hit It Rich 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Snow Top Mountain 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Heavenly Landing 4-1 6th

OFF THE TURF: 10-11-12

10th: 56th Donn H. (G1), 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Nice assembly of talent for GP’s premier handicap event highlighted by Preakness and Belmont winners making their 4yo debuts. Feels like an honest enough pace is assured with presence of Trickmeister and free running pursuers in Shackleford and Redeemed, but this racetrack is not too kind on those trying to close. Believe you want those that will be close up or stalking near and both Hymm Book and Where’s Sterling should have ideal positions/trips at square prices..

Best Value: #10 Hymm Book 8-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #9 Shackleford 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Where’s Sterling 12-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Redeemed 12-1 3rd

11th: 29th Gulfstream Park Turf H. (G1), 4+, 9f-T/72′ (DD, Super)

Tough group to decipher with course condition a question mark at this hour. Pacesetters on off going can be impossible to reel in, so Get Stormy has to move up on radar screens if you thought he had possibilities going in..

SCR Boisterous & Smart Bid..

Most Likely: #7 Get Stormy 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Kindergarten Kid 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Hollinger 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Silver Medallion 5-1 6th

12th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Impossible group to figure out..

Most Likely: #2 Sheerflakesofgold 7-2 4th
Next Best: #11 Cash Belongings 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 My Schatzi 12-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Where is Wilder 10-1 3rd

<$100 P5 Play:

8: 3-5
9: 2
10: 1-4-9-10
11: 1-2-7-8-9
12: 2-5-9-11-12

2x1x4x5x5 = 200 x .50 = $100

$0.50 P5 (3,6/8/10/7/12) Paid $19.85

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2
10: 1-4-6-9-10
11: 1-2-7-8-9
12: 2-5-6-9-11-12

1x5x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75

Not sure what I was thinking leaving I’m Magic off the P4 play at AQU Thursday which cost the $99 win. The sequence looked chalky, so I minimized the effort with a $27 ticket, but I’m Magic (12 ML, 15-1 post time) was one of the few spots in the quad where there was a chance for a number. Including him boosted the investment to $36 and he doggedly held off 2-1 Granby Girl after leading every step. Winning $63 would have been preferable to losing $27, so sorry… Aqueduct right back Friday with a very good card including an ALW heavy early P4 and cheaper but challenging sequence for the $150k guaranteed late P4.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: CLM-$30k, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Famous Rose 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Aba Dabbler 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Dattts Cool 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Readygetsgold 8-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Caught Hardened Wildcat in his maiden-breaker at nearly 4-1 and am anxious to see Act II from him today. From sprint stakes family (By Wild Snitch; half to Vengeful Wildcat) and expect to see him edged into black type affairs after this..

Most Likely: #5 Hardened Wildcat 3-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #4 Whistleblower 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Copy My Swagger 4-1 3rd

4th: OC-$50k/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

One of several deep, challenging groups the rest of the day..

Most Likely: #5 Game Token 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Tatao’s Widcat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Pete’s Parlay 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Suprise Strike 10-1 4th

5th: OC-$50k/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 North Freeway 4-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #8 Celebrity Sighting 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Natalie Victoria 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Siggi the Alien 5-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-6
3: 5
4: 1-2-4-5-7
5: 1-2-4-6-8

4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/5/2/4) Paid $102.00

6th: CLM-$25k, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

6-5 Plotter — whose name might be better spelled with ‘dd’ — is guaranteed to be overbet. These types can win of course, but as Serling has been pointing out all winter, you’re invarably better off being dissmissive of them..

Best Value: #7 Raffie’s Bandit 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Muster Up 4-1 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Plotter 6-5 6th
Super Add: #4 Red Bendel 10-1 3rd

7th: MDN CLM-$35k/NY, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

I don’t rely completely on Thoro-Graph figures, but in this spot, 15-1 Even Got Quiet and 9-5 Rock Star Charlie ran identical numbers in their last efforts. On top of their relative speed parity, Even Got Quiet drops from MSW company and cuts back to three quarters after 2 fruitless but fitness-building tries..

Best Value: #5 Even Got Quiet 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Rock Star Charlie 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Smokin Candy 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Northern Rush 6-1 9th

8th: S/HCP, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Joan’s Choice 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Screenplay 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Seniors Pride 2-1 WON ($9.30)
Exotics Use: #6 He’s So Chic 8-1 5th

9th: CLM-$20k, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Fun card ends here with VERY open and competitive group. Favored Proud Siren (3-1) is no better than the next 6 or 7. Use, but don’t fear..

#10 Full of Intent 5-1 a SCR..

Best Value: #8 The Silver Machine 15-1
Next Best: #9 Caps Lady 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Proud Siren 3-1
Super Add: #5 Star Vesta 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7
7: 2-4-5-9
8: 1-3
9: 2-4-5-7-8-9

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Fun Wednesday had its’ moments including 5/6 at Big A in P6 and ending on a nice note with $39.00 Fawkes winner at GP. Lousy weather continuing in FL and hopefully it won’t diminish big Donn Day card at Hallandale Saturday. Little spot action back in New York this afternoon…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Granby Girl 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Peachy Baby 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Ease Away 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 I’m Magic 12-1 WON ($32.40)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Panthro 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #1 Hooked on Dance 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ludo Bagman 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Dan’s Gold 10-1 4th

8th: NY-OC/N1X, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Good Law 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #11 Big Fearless 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1a Most Happy Fella 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Mr. Vantastic 12-1 5th

9th: CLM-$10k, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pleaseandthankyou 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #6 Zone Breaker 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Necaise 5-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Skitching 5-2 3rd

<$30 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-8
7: 6
8: 1-6-11
9: 2-5-6-7-8-9

3x1x3x6 = 54 x .50 = $27

Got lucky enough Super Bowl Sunday to catch Santa Anita double carryover for modest $2,200 ($1,900 + 9 consos). Parlay was half that number, so return was fine. The best feature of getting through the sequence was the three hours it devoured of the wait for gametime. Happy to hear that a few people came along or at least used first leg top tab Seeking Solace, $16.60 and the key to hitting the otherwise chalky set. $30k carry on a rather fun six pack at Aqueduct today and even though they are off the turf at Gulfstream, the P5 and P4 may be worth playing. I’ll wait for the scratches at GP before forging thoughts.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$30k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Guyana Star Dweej 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bird Tale 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Quiet Man 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Super Add: #6 War Hitch 5-2 5th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Chief Wild Eagle drops and cuts back. Return to November N2L effort at Philly beats this group by half dozen lengths..

Most Likely: #5 Chief Wild Eagle 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Howie and the Cat 20-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Mark It Man 7-2 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Kid Wando 3-1 3rd

6th: NY-$25k OC/C, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group and there is every opportunity for favorites Bold Deed and Wise Stop to drill each other into submission. At that point, cutback Precious Metal and consistant Coaltown Legend — both 6-1 ML items — become interesting stalking and closing. Won Great Classic and Premium Wine are first off claims and have positives. Jupiter Trio (10-1) is going to be ignored and is certainly employable with return to mud win 2 back..

Best Value: #4 Precious Metal 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Won Great Classic 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Coaltown Legend 6-1 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #8 Jupiter Trio 10-1 3rd

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Will be scary singling Worth a Buck who just has no interest in hitting the wire first, but he has no excuse not beating these..

Most Likely: #9 Worth a Buck 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #6 Purge Bird 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Gramercy 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Jazzbo 12-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Another good group..

Most Likely: #8 Star of New York 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #7 Cribnote 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Cosmic King 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Crushing 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (8-7) Paid $13.80
$1 Trifecta (8-7-6) Paid $36.75
$1 Superfecta (8-7-6-3) Paid $208.00

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m (Super)

Zodiac Girl will be singled on most tickets, but remember that bad horses win bad races..

Most Likely: #6 Zodiac Girl 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Marie’s Babe 10-1
Next Best: #3 Quite a Feat 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sundae’s a Meese 20-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3-5-6
5: 5
6: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8
7: 9
8: 6-7-8
9: 6

4x1x7x1x3x1 = 84 x $2 = $168

$2 Pick 6 (5/8/3/7,9/8,9/6,9) Paid $23.40 (5OF6)

<$25 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8
7: 9
8: 6-7-8
9: 6

7x1x3x1 = $21

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/7,9/8,9/6,9) Paid $25.00

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P5, P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sting Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #10 Fancy Runner 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Gulf Ruckus 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Sweetlandofliberty 5-1 8th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Al Mudeer 5th
Next Best: #3 Heavy Breathing WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Cybertron 4th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cloudwatcher 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Martini 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Curahee Assault 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Seaside Escape 8-1 5th

10th: OC/N1X, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dancing Solo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Hearts of Red 10-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #5 SCR

11th: MDN CLM-$35k, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #15 Purest Form 15-1 WON ($39.00)
Next Best: #13 Minestrone 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Old Puerto 15-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Slinger 12-1 7th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 4-7-9-10-12
8: 3-4
9: 4-8-9
10: 6
11: 4-9-11-13-15

5x2x3x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-4-10
9: 1-4-5-6-8-9
10: 6
11: 4-9-11-13-15

3x6x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

Long, full Saturday of action will give rise to enormous Super Bowl Sunday featuring a $353k carryover at Santa Anita which will likely exceed $1,500,000 by the early 3:00p ET post time at Arcadia. The stakes action Saturday started out as numbingly formful in New York with Nicole H, Calibrachoa and Alpha acing the Correction, Toboggan and Withers. Was disappointed to miss even a small P6 hit when SCR of the Dutrow-Dominguez nightcap favorite limited exposure while plausible Diamond District. At Tampa, things proved a little more juicy with Battle Hardened taking the Sam Davis at 9-2 and then explosive with I’ll Have Another’s 43-1 upset of the Bob Lewis and Ultimate Eagle $17.00 wiring of the Strub. Earlier at the Great Race Place, Mr. Commons survived an inquiry at .40 to start his season off well in the Arcadia. Hope everyone did well… Let’s go after the big pot at SA, just like the degenerates in ‘Luck’! (Ep. 2 tonight at 9:00a ET if you’re not watching Giants-Pats.)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: S/ALW, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Challenging start to rich sequence with all but 30-1 Cosmic Baby eligible for success. Feels like there is too much speed signed on for Mint Humor, Warren’s Dr. Yang and blinkered Merlin Z to succeed, so I’ll pitch my tent with the presser-stalker-closer options..

Best Value: #6 Seeking Solace 9-2 WON ($16.60)
Next Best: #5 Stone Hot 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Bull Ring 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Titian 12-1 3rd

4th: Cal-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Though Twelve Folds didn’t prove out in turf bow last week, second time start Briteness should still boss this group. And on top of the High Brite filly, Carla Gaines has the other player in debuting Fabulous Fashion..

Most Likely: #5 Briteness 2-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #8 Fabulous Fashion 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Give You Glory 6-1 5th

5th: Super Bowl Party S/HCP, 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hammerle making this quirky conditional event a tradition. Kind of an absence of speed here and loose horse going 7f mighty danderous. For that reason, it seems like Close to the Edge is the one to work around. If ready enough off 137 day break, may prove tough to catch. Turnbacks Gatheratthealter and Hiatus (T2D as well) make sense as ones to fear. Gutshot Straight retains Martin Garcia while King Ledley and Trumpet Player Jay don’t win a lot but always seems within range..

Most Likely: #8 Close to the Edge 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Best Value: #4 Hiatus 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gatheratthealter 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Gutshot Straight 4-1 6th

6th: OC-$62.5k/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Celestial Kitten the one to beat but this race a nightmare for those playing narrow tickets with almost every missy in here possible. Imperialistic Diva looks like she can jump back forward though I wonder if she doesn’t prefer added ground. NoCal invader Chasin Perfection lures Nakatani and will be a price. Could offer positives for the rest of the field. Tough hurdle..

Most Likely: #6 Celestial Kitten 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Imperialistic Diva 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 A Jealous Woman 5-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Chasin Perfection 12-1 6th

7th: 74th San Antonio (G2), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

SCR #1 Tres Borrachos.. BC Classic runner-up Game On Dude starts his 5yo campaign and will be singled on vast majority of tickets..

Most Likely: #3 Game On Dude 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #2 Uh Oh Bango 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Victory Pete 6-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM-$20k, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Messy finish to sequence..

Most Likely: #12 Meadow Road 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #6 Del Mar Johnny 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Creative Writer 4-1 DH-5th
Exotics Use: #8 Knucklebuster 6-1 –
Super/Hi-5: #9 On I Win 12-1 DH-5th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 3-5-6-7
4: 5
5: 4-8
6: 1-2-6-7
7: 3
8: 6-10-12

4x1x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (6/5,9/8/1/1,3,5/2,3,4,7,12) Paid $1,906.80

$2 Pick 6 (6/5,9/8/1/1,3,5/2,3,4,7,12) Paid $34.00 (5OF6) x 9 = $306.00

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-7-8
7: 3
8: 6-10-12

7x7x1x3 = 147 x .50 = $73.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/1/1,3,5/2,3,4,7,12) Paid $57.30