AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2X, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$32k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 Perfect Joiski 2-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Oasis of Chance 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Con the Cat 5-1 WON ($14.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Vamel 8-1 7th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, Super)

Best Value: #3 Fit Fightin Feline 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 The Snickers Kid 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Wistful Wildcat 2-1 5th
Super Add: #5 My Pal of Pals 10-1 6th

7th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Hook and Lateral 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Jaded Lover 4-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Purple Pico 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Camie’s Magic 12-1 4th

8th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Devilish Stunt 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Value Added Tax 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Metaurus 5-2 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Neversaywhen 30-1 11th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 THIS HARD LAND 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #9 Sound of Drums 9-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Mr. Vantastic 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Merlin Bay 20-1 9th

10th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Al’s Lark 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #5 Free Brave 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Cantrushperfection 9-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Keechi Bullet 5-1 3rd

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 1-5-7-8
6: 3-4-6
7: 7-8
8: 6
9: 6
10: 3-5

4x3x2x1x1x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-7-8
8: 5-6-10
9: 6
10: 1-2-3-5-6-8-9-11

4x3x1x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 P4 (7-5-6-3) Paid $100.12

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Barth’s Approval 20-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Leipzig 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Powhattan County 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #4 Go Joe Go 20-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Been anticipating a maiden break from Monarchic, but he runs into Pletcher-WinStar number outside..

Most Likely: #4 Monarchic 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Grouse 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Windsurfer 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Pushingonastring 5-1 2nd

9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e West Point entry 3-1 3rd/4th
Best Value: #6 Positive Side 20-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Corporate Jungle 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Dream Man 15-1 7th

10th: 36th GP Sprint Ch. (G2), 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 FORCE FREEZE 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Trolius 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Capt. Candyman Can 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Simba’s Story 5-1 4th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Watch for fillies drawing in here as the #13 and #15 are both very eligible if allowed to participate (NOTE: No AE’s drew in)..

Most Likely: #9 Mistie Royale 6-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Miss Sprightly 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #6 Another Brew 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dr Maureen H 8-1 10th

<$100 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-11
8: 1-4-6-9
9: 1-6-8-10
10: 8
11: 6-9-12

3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 P5 (5-9-10-8-12) Paid $79.80 (+ 4 correct Paid $2.85 X 10 = $28.50) = $108.30

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6-9
9: 1-5-6-8-10
10: 8
11: 3-6-7-9-12

4x5x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 P4 (9/10/8/12,13,14,15,16) Paid $44.25

Got tripped up in the modest P4 tries Thursday but ran into tremendous good luck on overlaid exotics in the FG maiden race we discussed at length with Marcus Hersh and Neil Howard on ATR. Howard’s Sir Bond was much the best as the 5-2 favorite gaining his diploma (91 Beyer), but ‘Best Value’ top tab Brigade held for 3rd at 28-1 while draw-in Last Gunfighter was rallying for second at 9-1. The resultant trifecta paid an outrageous $740.90 to make the day successful. The off turf nightcap offered a bonus as well when Danny Peitz’ Al Musaddad — much more likeable off turf than on — went oddly ignored and won at 20-1 ($43.20). The exacta came back $184with 15-2 Purgenatily. Santa Anita was a bit of a humdrum sequence after the NoLa fireworks. Hope everybody got something out of Thursday’s fun! NYRA back with the $150,000 P4 guarantee that has drawn $200k+ in handle in its’ first 2 weeks…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Winloc’s John Lee 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Pegasus Hellas 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Pegasus Papou 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Trainingforsuccess 8-1 7th

7th: CLM-$10k, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Call the Ball 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #8 Sastre 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Dontstealmyland 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 The Cuff Shooter 12-1 5th

8th: OC-$50k/N2X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 McCarren Park 7-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Expression 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #6 Blushin Martha 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lion Alexandra 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-2) Paid $61.25
$1 Trifecta (4-2-6) Paid $383.00
$0.10 Superfecta (4-2-6-5) Paid $84.85

9th: NY-MDN CLM/$15k, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sandican 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Raffie’s Choice 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #1 El Dreamer 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Embur’s Maduro 5-1 4th

<$25 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 2-6-8
8: 4-5
9: 1-3-5-9

2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

Wasn’t hitting the Aqueduct carryover P6 Thursday with implausable Bail Out the Banks coming up a winner in the 2nd leg, but got sloppy in the late P4 leaving $160 in Bail Out Byk money on the table. Originally 3×2 with Midnight Visit included in the 8th, I tinkered to a 2×3 to get Believe in Betty on the quad play. You can next Believe in Betty when she returns to turf in the spring. It was an odd day with all the winner identified, but tricky to weave together on the big multis.

The highlight of the day was Coosada’s $23.20 win in the 7th which helped mollify the misses. Between Ausable Chasm’s exasperating non-effort as the favorite in the 3rd and the subsequent miscues, it wasn’t the most enjoyable afternoons. Hope everyone did at least OK with some of the OK individual race results. Fair Grounds has the first mid-week card that has been interesting to me today with a couple of very good 3yo MSW’s and top notch ALW on tap. Good sequence later at Arcadia as well!

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM-$25k/N3L, F&M-4+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Laverne 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Ellusive Wildcat 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Blessed Moon 4-1 5th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating cast featuring price opportunities and loaded with sibling power including Mucho Macho Uno (half to Vow to Wager), Money Only (Out of MSW Snit & half to Blind Date and Sales Tax), Sir Bond (half to sire Wiseman’s Ferry) and if Nick Zito actually sent him to NoLa, Len Reggio’s Round Midnight who dropped from Mr. Jerkens MGSW Miss Shop..

Best Value: #8 Brigade 20-1: Tiznow from Jones & Jones goes 1st as 3yo.. 3rd
Next Best: #13 Last Gunfighter 10-1: Exits sharp debut but will need to work trip.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Sir Bond 3-1: Howard Street Sense colt close v. good ones.. WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #10 Round Midnight 12-1: If Zito does run here, it’s with purpose 5th

$1 Exacta (11-13) Paid $26.90
$1 Trifecta (11-13-8) Paid $740.90

8th: OC-$40k/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cease 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Tonto Fontenot 8-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #4 Infrattini 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Gentle Tap 8-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3-5yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Starter 5th
Best Value: #8 Purgenality 2nd
Next Best: #13 Burke’s Book 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Al Musaddad WON ($43.20)

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-9
7: 1-4-6-8-9-10-11-13
8: 3
9: 7-8-12-13

3x8x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM-$8k, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Clue Me In 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Trumpet Player Jay 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Thrice the Vice 6-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Party Mandate 20-1 DNF-Lost rider

6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Good looking, balanced group. Tough to separate..

Best Value: #4 Called to Serve 6-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Montego Bay 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Rocket Train 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Vibrato Jazz 4-1 WON ($9.80)

7th: CAL-ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Anything close to the maiden-breaker from Twelve Folds obviously wins easily. Can’t misstep at all though as the next 3 are OK..

Most Likely: #5 Twelve Folds 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Belloma 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #3 Almost a Lady 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Vicki Victoria 4-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM-$30k, 3yo-F, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Bellavini 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #1 T J’s Stormy Wit 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Live the Forth 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Flashy Rae 7-2 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Whiskey Talks 8-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-4-7
6: 1-4-5-6-9-10
7: 5
8: 1-6-8-9

3x6x1x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

Quite happy to close out weekend with 5 of 6 ticket in SA carryover with three consos triggering a satisfying $855 return. Additional scoop of late P4 for $160 was nice boost as well. The Marty Jones 15-1 winner of the opening leg of the sequence was a difficult horse to come up with given she was comin back from a 13 month break and was making a first careet turf start on top of it. Those that included Long Legged Lovely with the other 5 winners were rewarded with an excellent $41k payday. Hope everyone did well! New York has a nice $36k carryover today in a good, bettable sequence.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$36k P6 C/O starts here..

Approachable sequence will be started on many budget tickets with single of tough-to-get-past Sagamore player What’s the Record. Ran well v. open company in last NY visit and looks best here back in against Empire sorts. Our Eli is a consistant money earner who just refuses to win, but if your play backups, he’s very viable..

Most Likely: #3 What’s the Record 1-1
Next Best: #5 Our Eli 6-1
Best Value: #9 Say Mr. Sandman 8-1
Super Add: #2 Cientifico 6-1

5th: S/HCP, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Good Karma 3-1
Next Best: #4 Midnite Silver 8-5
Exotics Use: #1 Winaholic 4-1
Super Add: #5 Bail Out the Banks 5-1

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5-6
3: 2-3-4-5-6
4: 3-5
5: 3-4

5x5x2x2 = 100 x .50 = $50

6th: CLM-$15k/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting N2L with big drop down from Papa’s Nice Cat potentially vulnerable and alternate fave War Colony possibly against it from a pace perspective. Andy Serling mentioned merits of turnback candidate Greeley’s Law from the outside and price will be right with 1/52 7# bug Birrell and 0/16 Disanto a less than attractive T/J combo. Tough test in the sextet..

Best Value: #10 Greeley’s Law 12-1
Next Best: #4 Papa’s Nice Cat 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 War Colony 3-1
Super Add: #5 Zeppe 30-1

7th: CLM-$30k, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mineswept 5-2
Best Value: #9 Coosada 6-1
Next Best: #8 Crown the Chief 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 W. W. Lady’s Man 7-2

8th: OC-$62.5k/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1a Smart Stride 4-1
Next Best: #3 Sophia 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Midnight Visit 3-1
Super Add: #5 Honest Gold 4-1

9th: MDN CLM-$12.5k, F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Nolita 5-2
Best Value: #8 Indymoolah 8-1
Next Best: #6 Believe in Betty 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Femme Royale 20-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 3-4
6: 2-4-10
7: 3-4-8-9
8: 1
9: 4-6-8

1x2x3x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-6-7-10
7: 3-4-8-9
8: 1-3
9: 4–6-8

6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Hope everyone enjoyed the excellent Donn Day card at Gulfstream Saturday and made the most of the opportunities despite the less than perfect track conditions. Highlights included thrilling Donn win by top tab Hymm Book who rewarded your confidence with a $15.00 win mutuel. Although Mission Impazible got in the way of my triples (with Redeemed and Where’s Sterling 3rd/4th), earlier troikas in the 2nd ($107) and 4th ($226), as well as the early P4 ($150), assured a positive result for the day. But the strong afternoon closed out with a bang via A sweep of the exotics in the wild nightcap when ‘Best Value’ My Schatzi scored at 9-1 to key the $105 exacta, $688 tri and $2,535 super.

The day’s lone tactical error was singling Denomination in the Suwannee as opposed to Get Stormy in the GP Turf. As I even brought up Friday on radio and in print Saturday, off going regularly makes front runners tough to reel in and Get Stormy frequently is allowed to loaf on the lead for whatever reason and I failed to capitalize on that concept. Hope everyone did great.. Sizeable carryover at Santa Anita and nice card at the Big A! And don’t forget to toss in a Derby Future Wager by 6p tonight…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-Mr. G.J.G., 4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Inherit the Gold 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Stormy’s Majesty 5-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Groomed for Victory 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #3 Star of New York 12-1 3rd

5th: CLM-$10k, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Two Moons 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #5 Crafty N P 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Vanaema 30-1 8th

6th: NY-MDN CLM/$16k, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Half Lucky 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Stanley Kowalsky 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Sunshine Valentino 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #4 That’s for Sure 6-1 4th

7th: OC-$25k/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Nothing clever here though note how well Kenneally’s NY string is going (21/7-4-4) as he sends 5-1 Lady Lindy here. And actually, he’s going good in FL too (25/6-5-4 w/o Battle Hardened’s TAM win!)..

Most Likely: #7 Cash for Clunkers 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 Lady Lindy 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Lynette 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Royal Sighting 6-1 4th

8th: NY-Windswept Wings, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Yes Peggy Jane will take some beating, but you’ve been watching these types get bested regularly, haven’t you? Beautiful But Blue and I Bet Toni Knows are certainly in the zip code if the Asmussen Kafwain filly — who has every advantage — fails to fire..

Most Likely: #3 Peggy Jane 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Beautiful But Blue 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #7 I Bet Toni Knows 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Hot Splash 12-1 8th

9th: NY-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

This is a fun betting race if we can keep the short priced Jimmy Jerkens fave out of the top slot. Donk capable of popping with a firster and I’m guessing based on overlapping worktabs that Justa Country Girl has been sparing in the mornings with stakes filly Corderosa. Englehart (Caught by You) a gaudy 5 of 8 ($3.69) with first Lasix runners while Bond (Bonita Sonata) 3 of 6 ($3.22) with second time starters of late..

Best Value: #1 Justa Country Girl 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Sing Dixie Sing 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Caught by You 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Bonita Sonata 10-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-8
7: 2-4-6-7
8: 3
9: 1-6-7-8-11-12

4x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM-$22.5k/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$135k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Geniality 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Smil’n From Above 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Carousel 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Woodman’s Lass 8-1 6th

5th: CLM-$12.5k, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Classy Attraction 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Lisa Lulu 9-2 4th
Next Best: #8 All the Love 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Queenie Marini 7-2 2nd

6th: Cal-MSW, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Abella 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #8 Vonn Nez 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Angel’s Moon 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Sea John’s Spirit 9-2 9th

7th: Cal-OC-$25k/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Lil Miss Macky 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 My Brite Caroline 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #5 Melissa Rose 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Maya Angelina 3-1 5th

8th: 3rd Sweet Life, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Terrific little down-the-hill stake for 3yo gals. It’s pretty amazing that Vionnet received her diploma on the unique course considering her dam Cambiocorsa did the same and was nearly unbeatable on it (10/8-0-1). Then there is Cambiocorsa’s full brother to mention in this discussion, California Flag who won the BC Turf Sprint and 3  editions of the G3 Morvich (2008, 2009, 2011) on the slope!

Most Likely: #2 Rowdy Gal 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Vionnet 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Indigo River 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #3 She Spirit di Su 3-1 7th

9th: S/ALW, 3yo, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

How solid a single is Pulpit’s Express in the nightcap? Note Brad Free’s Formulator nugget: Mike Mitchell has an exceptional record with horses stretching out following a maiden sprint win. Since fall 2008, Mitchell is 6-for-12 with maiden-winning stretchouts. The one horse that could be interesting as an alternative is the first time Hollendorfer on the outside that adds first Lasix and receives 5# with hot-ridding Eswan Flores..

Most Likely: #6 Pulpit’s Express 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #13 Arathorn 5-1 11th
Best Value: #8 Go to the Pulpit 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Yankee Dan 10-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-8
5: 6-8-9
6: 7
7: 1-4
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 6

3x3x1x2x4x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 (1/9/7/1/5,6/1,6,7) Paid $285.20 (5OF6) x 3 = $855.60

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-8-9
7: 1-4-5
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 6-13

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 P4 (7/1/5,6/1,6,7) Paid $160.60