Kind of odd that weekday action would be more enticing than on a big weekend day, but I felt that way making decisions Saturday and my humdrum results reflected it. Missed the Gulfstream P5/P4 due to glossing over Lee Pokoik’s Arch Support, a filly Gary Sciacca selected as a yearling. She wasn’t impossible, but was spotting recency coming off a 3 month break. Her $64 mutuel boosted the rest ofthe mundane sequence results to a $4,167 P5 and $2,881 P4. A pair of P5 consos for $63 helped defray expenses.

At Oaklawn, I used 3 in the Azeri concerned about Absinthe Minded, but left off highly viable Tiz Miz Sue who was tons the best and returned an overlaid $19.60. When the maiden races went formfully ($10 Master Rick, $6.60 Skyring) and Secret Circle gutted out the Rebel ($4), the quad still brought back $411.. almost 3X the parlay. One small win came in the Rebel exacta ($61.60) when I included Optimizer in exotics after the SCR of Ring It Up from the Chris Richard entry. Hope everyone did OK. Sorry to be of so little use on a Saturday…

In terms of the Rebel’s usefulness as a Derby Trail prep, it was a wholly disappointing spectacle. Secret Circle is a really nice, game horse, but he isn’t going much further than the 8.5f you saw Saturday. A mile and an eighth on a speed track would be reasonable certainly, but all that will do is whet appetites to keep going to Kentucky where he would be the 2012 Comma to the Top. Optimizer’s rally will propel Lukas further along with him as he takes on the role of this year’s version of Dublin. Dan Pietz should think Belmont and BC Marathon with Najjaar as he was the one horse that just kept running after every other had shut down past the wire.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T/72′ (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Wildly competitive turf set and there is no reason to not swing for the fences here. Price choices abound with at least 8 of the 12 eligible to win with “A” effort and good trip..

Most Likely: #4 Nandira 10-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Inimitable Romanee 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Forest Legend 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Imperial Pippin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Wet One 20-1 10th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Joyce’s Angel 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Latin Rocks 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Believe in A.P. 4-1 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #2 The Marikutana 12-1 6th

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T/12′ (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific, supremely competitive group on the lawn..

Most Likely: #6 Gathering Cloud 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Tawaared 8-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Pinckney Hill 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Dynafortwo 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1e JMJ Racing entry 6-1 WON/7th ($8.60)

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Venture World 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Not a Given 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 R Street Cat 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Doyouseemecoming 6-1 WON ($17.80)

10th: 29th Honey Fox (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T/72′ (DD, Super)

Excellent lawn companion stake to Saturday’s exciting Inside Information. Marshua’s River and Suwannee River grads and a number of other solid citizens should make this a good betting opportunity. As brought up with DRF’s Mike Beer Friday on ATR, always like to find successful specialists when it comes to Turf Miles and 7/8ths on the Main and many here including Romacaca, Bay to Bay, La Riene Lionne and Future Generation fit that bill. Good, good race..

SCR #1 Persuading who contested Saturday’s stake instead..

Most Likely:#9 La Riene Lionne 5-1: Agonizing nose beat in Marshua.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Tapitsfly 6-1: Wide every step in Marshua.. WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #8 Future Generation 3-1: Bush button ready in N.A. debut.. 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Romacaca 4-1: Ultra-consistant and loves this lawn.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Bay to Bay 6-1: Respect this hard-hitter making 5yo debut.. 2nd

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T/12′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

Predictably challenging MDN CLM turf route nightcap. While the top two seem obvious, these events have been producing their share of ignored players that are hard to like on paper..

Most Likely: #11 Money’s Worth 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Golden Tornado 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 In the Midnight 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #5 Roars More 6-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Franklinpark 30-1 7th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-6
8: 1-2-6-7-10
9: 8
10: 2-3-7-8-9
11: 4-11

3x5x1x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-6-7-10
9: 4-6-8
10: 2-3-7-8-9
11: 4-11

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

Enjoyed a productive Friday at Santa Anita gaining another P6 conso and the late P4 for modest profit. The day’s best opinion came in the tough starter allowance 7th, a challenging race where using all 4 tabs in both the P6 and P4 proved necessary and prescient when War Politics nosed favored Baby Blake. The Bien’s Gift, 15-1 on Jon White’s line but 20-1 when the gates opened, was my best value key horse and he chased 5-2 Baby Blake the entire way around the turf course. The pair was caught at the wire by Doug O’Neill’s War Politics, 6-1 on the ML but marginalized at 11-1, who was making his first grass start. The triple came back a hefty $675.

The 5 of 6 conso returned $257 and the P4 $135, so the ledger was well clear as attention turned to Saturday handicapping and the evening’s hardcourt action. As strong as the results at Aqueduct and Santa Anita turned out the last 3 days, it wasn’t as satisfying as pushing Lehigh over Duke to listeners this week. Along with being delighted for Lehigh in general and Engineer alumni friends Andy Serling and Barry Frey specifically, the win is shared by Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy, my alma mater Colgate and the rest of the immensely proud Patriot League. A group of ATR listeners led by the one and only ‘Robert in Arizona’ arrived in Vegas Friday and may not leave any time soon after burying an unsuspecting sports book with the Lehigh win. Hope everyone did great yesterday! Bad weather in California and a confusing Aqueduct P4 leave the focus on Gulfstream and Oaklawn Saturday..

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T/12′ (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Think you want to play this pretty straight with some more inscrutable spots coming later in the sequence. Imported top choices from Brown/Leparoux and Clement/Lezcano just look better than the prices..

Most Likely: #7 Whipsaw City 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #8 Limonar 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Font 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Silver Prism 6-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Again, short numbers appear best options though Granitz decision to come from Tampa for $60k with #8 Rose Briar (6-1) raises an eyebrow. Goes turf to dirt and gets big rider upgrade to hustling Paco..

Most Likely: #5 Pushingonastring 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #1 Wise Guy Charlie 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Rose Briar 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fortin 10-1 2nd

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T/72′ (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched lawn lasses. Can reach around for prices a bit here..

Best Value: #10 Sure Route 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Vivo Per Lei 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Lisa Jean 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Button Girl 6-1 2nd

10th: 36th Inside Information (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Outstanding cast for this and as discussed extensively Friday on ATR, Iwinski’s Magical Feeling can adjust to various pace scenarios from advantageous position. Price may not be 10-1 but should be square..

Best Value: #10 Magical Feeling 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 R Holiday Mood 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Musical Romance 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #11 Her Smile 3-1 6th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T/12′ (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Topazio 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #9 Tiz Sunset 3-1 DNF
Best Value: #11 Little Bailey 5-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #7 Natalie’s Goal 6-1 3rd

<$200 P5 Play:

7: 7-8
8: 1-5
9: 9-10
10: 5-6-10-11
11: 5-9

2x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 5 (7/3,5,7/3/5/5) Paid $31.65 (4OF5) X 2 = $63.30

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-5-8
9: 6-9-10
10: 4-5-6-9-10-11
11: 5-9

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 26th Azeri (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4)

Queen of Oaklawn Absinthe Minded tries to break long winless skien for D. Wayne here and not only loves this strip but owns an advantage based on pace scenario too..

Most Likely: #1 Absinthe Minded 3-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Ravi’s Song 9-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Joyful Victory 8-5 3rd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)

First of two divisions and very tough..

Most Likely: #11 On the Loose Again 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Horn Buckle 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Artillery 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Master Rick 8-1 WON ($10.00)

10th: 52nd Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

As discussed on ATR, race appears to go through Secret Circle if you’re convinced added 110 yards won’t stop him. After that, it seems like you latch on to any — and as many — of the prices as you can based on any positive attribute you sense. Reckless Jerry need only get back to his Smarty Jones try to compete while Richards entry is superfecta friendly at a big number. Unbridled’s Note will be forwardly placed and can be excused in disasterous Southwest..

Most Likely: #8 Secret Circle 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #10 Reckless Jerry 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Unbridled’s Note 20-1 12th
Exotics Use: #5 Optimizer 30-1 2nd

11th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Beer Garden 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Limehouse Blues 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Skyring 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Tizawonderfullife 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4
9: 2-3-4-6-10-11
10: 8-10
11: 3-6-7-11

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Made spirited run at Aqueduct carryover sequence Thursday with absence of old friend Freud’s Notebook the difference between $232 of consos and the $18k reward for perfection. The $16.20 key to the sextet won the only way she could, taking control early from vulnerable Alphabet Jamerica and wiring the field. I had hoped the former Pont St. Stable NYB stake winner would soften up Jamerica for Quixsand to overhaul, but the plucky pacesetter kept going and ultimately drew off. And Quixsand stunk. Luckily respected the winner enough to use in the P4 which was fruitful to the turn of $306 for the $48 investment. Earlier, chalky quad was good for $78.10 ($40.50 play), but if 2nd race photo goes to 19-1 Scrap Dragon instead of 4-5 Ventura Bob, the payoff balloons towards $300 or more. It was a fun afternoon and certainly profitable, but that $18,000 was a liberal jackpot given the sequence… Hope everybody did well! Santa Anita drew my interest going into the weekend.

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4yo-F, 6f (Place Pick All, P5, P3, DD)

Queenie Marini is the better filly but For You My Heart has no one to accompany her up front. Budget P5 plays can single short-priced fave but balanced approach says you need both..

Most Likely: #3 For You My Heart 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Queenie Marini 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Girls Lacrosse 4-1 3rd

2nd MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super):

This is an awful group and while the .50 fave looks vulnerable, there isn’t a whole lot of encouraging alternatives making themselves evident..

Most Likely: #4 Missie Ky I You 1-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Depistry 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Key Allegro 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Whole Enchilada 5-1 WON ($14.80)

3rd: MSW, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fordham Road 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Anabaa Premium 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Dynamize 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Unex Dali 12-1 6th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Companion ALW to Gulfstream heat earlier with another serious set of 3yo’s tangling. Consulado had misfortune of running into Fed Biz last, but will take some beating here as outside controling speed depending on Espinoza’s deployment of T2D turnback Hodge and Baffert first time 3yo Night Tide. Baffert’s other player here Brigand gets first chance on dirt while Asmussen Sham flop Hierro tries to right the ship from tricky launch berth..

Most Likely: #7 Consulado 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Brigand 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Hierro 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Congrats Ski 8-1 5th

5th: CLM, FM-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Going for a Spin 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Glorified 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Charm the Crowd 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Bella Swan 7-2 3rd

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 3-4
2: 4
3: 1-3-6-10
4: 1-3-7
5: 1-6-7

2x1x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$25 P4 Play:

2: 4
3: 1-3-6-10
4: 1-3-7
5: 1-6-7

1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Top pair are tough to separate and Rosario money may end up making Caffeine High the fave over Cyclometer..

Most Likely: #9 Cyclometer 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Caffeine High 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Delta Fix 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Liberal Arts 7-2 5th

7th: S/ALW,3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Treacherous looking turf starter. Taking a shot with price The Bien’s Gift (15-1) based on Gallagher’s gaudy turf move numbers, form cycle and race flow positives..

Best Value: #6 The Bien’s Gift 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Baby Blake 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Go to the Pulpit 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 War Politics 6-1 WON ($24.60)

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Warren’s Performer 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Elusive Spirit 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Lily’s Tiz 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Winforlin 8-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Pride Hunter 5-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-6
4: 7
5: 1-6-7
6: 5-9
7: 2-3-6-10
8: 1-8

2x1x3x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (1,8/8/6/7,8,9/3/1) Paid $257.60 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-6-7-9
6: 5-9
7: 2-3-5-6-8-10
8: 1-4-8

4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/7,8,9/3/1) Paid $135.75

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Afternoon Treat 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Worth a Buck 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Jitalian 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Call the Ball 3-1 3rd

5th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Perfect Drive 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Fastus Cactus 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Pistols at Dawn 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ezzy 4-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-7
3: 1-2-6
4: 3-4-7
5: 1-2-7

3x3x3x3 = 81 x .50 = $40.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/6/3/1,6) Paid $78.10

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating, deep group of solid claimers with layoff returnees and new barns to consider..

Most Likely: #7 The Fed Eased 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #9 Shmooz Talker 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Call First 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Pin Number 12-1 9th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Think state-bred Sportswriter (with Ramon) is on the level and unless Ortiz and Capital Goods hook him, Dominguez should have every opportunity to wire..

Most Likely: #6 Sportswriter 7-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 Capital Goods 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Well Spelled 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Behemoth 5-1 6th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Not convinced Alphabet Jamerica is so special that she merits 8-5. Quixsand’s last winning effort in October can take this and Hushion very effective having them sharp off break. Adds Ortiz and figures to stalk and pounce..

Best Value: #4 Quixsand 4-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Alphabet Jamerica 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Guyana’s Princess 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Freud’s Notebook 5-1 WON ($16.20)

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Big SCR of favored #9 Last Minute Rose..

Best Value: #8 Dear Elizabeth 8-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Ashcraft Silver 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Chat Me Up 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Sunday At Nipper’s 5-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-7
5: 1-7
6: 4-7-9
7: 6
8: 2-4
9: 5-6-8

2x3x3x1x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (3/1,6/7/3,5,6/3/8) Paid $116.00 (5OF6) x 2 = $232.00

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-7-8-9
7: 4-6
8: 2-3-4-6
9: 5-6-8

4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/3,5,6/3/8) Paid $306.25

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD Super)

Most Likely: #1 So Much Heart 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Twillerbee 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hard Life 2-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Beppj 12-1 4th

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Startling group based on pedigrees alone with debuting Car Talk (Half to MGSW’s Dixie Chatter & Rumor), Steele Road (Out of Ashado), Round Midnight (First foal out of Miss Shop) and Sporting Gent (Half to Honest Man). All need to beat West Point even money fave Suns Out Guns Out from Romans exiting Gotham..

Most Likely: #3 Suns Out Guns Out 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Five Sixteen 6-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #1e Darley entry 2-1 3rd/6th
Exotics Use: #6 Sporting Gent 8-1 4th

3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 The Thinker 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sky Colors 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 Seventeen and One 2-1 5th

4th: S-OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Thomas Hill 5-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Frisky Warrior 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Blue Punch 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Tightend Touchdown 5-2 WON ($7.20)

5th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Superior Sarah 3-1 3rd (2nd for EXA)
Best Value: #5 Landing My Way 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1e McLaughlin entry 7-2 WON/2nd ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #8 Holiday Flare 4-1 4th (3rd for TRI)

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-5
3: 1
4: 2-3-4-8
5: 1-3-4-5-7-8

4x1x4x6 = $96 x .50 = $48

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Global Alliance 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Royal Inmate 6-1 WON ($8.90)
Super Add: #7 Rico Capote 8-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a very fun group with several eligible for jump up performances that can juice exotics in any slot..

Most Likely: #7 Ludo Bagman 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Bizarroworld 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Think I’m Hooked 12-1 5th
Super Add: #10 I’ll Stake You 20-1 2nd

8th: The Limit, 3yo-F, 1m (DD, Super)

Well matched set of highly mediocre fillies. No one is without chance..

Most Likely: #2 Zucchini Flower 5-2 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #6 Whisperdownthelane 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Lisa T. 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Wicked Mizz 7-2 2nd

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super)

Note Blondecat, who figures a major player here, is entered back for Friday and may come out. Very tough race with or without her..

Best Value: #2 Sweet Hot Toddy 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Enniskillen 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Soccittomebaby 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Hillsboro Bay 8-1 DNF

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-9/SCR
7: 5-7
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 2-3-4-6-7-10

2x2x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48