Even more than baseball, horse playing is the ultimate game of ‘redeeming qualities’ as Wednesday frustration gave way to Thursday exultation. Hitting both P4’s at KEE and OP would have felt fine no matter the return, but those that delved got as lucky as possible when both of the largest possible will pay horses came through in the nightcaps.

Over Spiced was the 2nd longest price on the board in the Oaklawn finale at 11-1, but I made him the ‘Best Value’ second choice and she womanhandled the $20k OC field easily to close out the $448 bingo. While the $24.60 winner was the ideal ending to the sequence, surviving a narrow photo with the Donnie Von Hemel winner in the 9th was instrumental.

Earlier at Keeneland, Rusty Arnold continued his winning ways when Run a Risk, a rough trip loser at GP previously, upended the Kenneally and Mott top choices for a $331 quad hit. Thirty minutes beforehand, Buff Bradley sent he and his dad’s homebred Groupie Doll out to a dominant victory in the G1 Madison. There are few connections in Kentucky who are easier to root for than the Bradleys and their daughter of blue collar Bowman’s Band runs on any surface and seemingly at any trip.

Hope everyone did well. Lots more action on tap Friday ahead of an insane Saturday of racing that won’t stop until the $1,000,000 Charles Town Classic at 10:30 PM!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: Three Coins Up, 4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mahubo 8-5 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #2 Kingofthebluegrass 4-1 5th
Extics Use: #3 Pocket Cowboys 3-1 4th

3rd: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

A Boy Named Em may appreciate return to one turning. Summer Sunset should get the lead with Lopez added. Da Vinci was a $600k Coolmore buy that was given away for $35k..

Most Likely: #2 Summer Sunset 7-2 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #5 A Boy Named Em 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Da Vinci 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Money in Motion 3-1 3rd

4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Fun group with the locals that wintered in NY making initial seasonal turf runs as 4 & 5yo’s trying to beat formful fave #8 Casa Tua (5-2) who is back from Florida for Tagg. Expect that any of #1, #2, #3, #6 and/or #9, as good or better than Casa Tua last fall, can be ready, while #5 Aquifolia — first off Jamgotchian claim in FL — seems on a par as well..

Most Likely: #1 Take Her Tothe Top 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Aquifolia 5-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Casa Tua 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Late SCR (11:28a)

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Slightly Stunned 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Hook It Up 3-1 WON ($18.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Peachy Baby 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Catholicschoolgirl 7-2 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3
3: 1-2-5-7
4: 1-2/SCR-3-5-8-9
5: 2-8

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Albertrani & McGaughey faves certainly respectable but though 12-1 Levine filly On Hold (SCR’D) debuted for $50k, she came running late. Moves up and stretches out and could impact this with natural 2nd start improvement. By Macho Uno, Glencrest homebred is a half to serious MGSW sprinter Battle Won who was helmed to best efforts by Chuck Simon..

Most Likely: #3 Closing Move 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Sea Island 5-2 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #5 Adrina 6-1 4th

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pure Amour 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Glory in Motion 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Princess Mara 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Nurse Dolce 6-1 7th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Very tricky group. Note #4 Isn’t He Perfect, now in R. Dutrow barn, cross-entered for Sunday’s overnight stake..

Best Value: #3 Sam Sparkle 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Isn’t He Perfect 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Hewitts 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Those Wer the Days 3-1 WON ($10.00)

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #11 More Zen Tea 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Adirondack Dancer 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Best Value: #8 Frisky Cat 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Mad Bomber 10-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-7
7: 5-7
8: 3-4-5-6-7-8
9: 1-8-11

4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Tough start to the P5. Stall 2nd timer Crossing the Tape is half to Gabby’s Golden Gal who was slick on synthetics..

Best Value: #10 Crossing the Tape 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Brilliant Katie 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Make Music 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Summer Tremor 15-1 11th

.10 SUPER: Key 10 1st/2nd with 2-3-4-8-11 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Yikes! Few tosses from this..

Most Likely: #7 Coalport 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #8 Film Shot 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Southern Parkway 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Tigerdude 20-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Old Time Hockey 5-1 7th

8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

A day’s ‘Best Bet’ can be a horse that has a big shot at a great price and that’s my read on Suave sister Urbanini in this spot..

Best Value: #9 URBANINI 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Manda Bay 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Hurdle Rate 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Lemons Forever 20-1 9th

9th: Maker’s 46 Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Hard to see who’s going to challenge defending winner Get Stormy up front. Turallure one of my favorites and Doubles Partner continues to improve..

Most Likely: #5 Get Stormy 9-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Doubles Partner 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Turallure 7-5 2nd

10th: CLM, 4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Nothing like a dime claimer to end a nice sequence..

Best Value: #1 Eddie Set Go 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Major Marvel 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sky Victor 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Silverdaddyofmine 30-1 –
Hi-5 Play: #3 Causin’ Havoc 3-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 4-10
7: 2-5-7-8-9
8: 7-9
9: 5
10: 1-3-4-8-10

2x5x2x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-7-8-9
8: 1-7-8-9
9: 5
10: 1-3-4-8-10

5x4x1x5 =100 x .50 = $50

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4)

Best Value: #7 Too Chic 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mahogany Storm 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 City Slewtons 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Cooking Mama 9-2 WON ($10.00)

9th: Instant Racing, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, Super)

Kitty Kat Karly ran in the Fantasy and is likely a SCR. Livi Makenzie is cross-entered in the embarrassingly bad ‘G2’ Beaumont Sunday at KEE and could wire that field if she goes. Not sure what is supposed to stop Morrow Cove from drowning this field..

Most Likely: #9 Morrow Cove 5-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Yvette Sangalo 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Glinda the Good 9-5 WON ($5.20)

10th: Apple Blossom (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD)

Plum Pretty will get company from Absinthe Minded who loves the strip. Could open door for Tiz Miz Sue to pounce late..

Most Likely: #1 Tiz Miz Sue 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Plum Pretty 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Absinthe Minded 5-1 2nd

11th: MSW, 3,4,5yo’s, 6f (Super)

2nd timer Cabo Time will be tough, but note Tim Ritchey debuts Cat Myth, a full sister to Johannesburg..

Most Likely: #4 Cabo Time 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Cat Myth 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Lobshot 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Best Credentials 6-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-7-8
9: 9 (5-6)
10: 1-3-5
11: 4-5

4x1x3x2 = $24
Backup: 4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

 

Though I couldn’t sustain any momentum Wednesday and came away generally beaten up, ATR listeners that noted Andy Serling’s Tuesday suggestions had every opportunity to navigate the late P4 for a $2,200 score. Great job by Andy as the treacherous action left a P6 carryover ($22k) with no one able to tab 5 of yesterday’s 6! Hope everyone did OK despite my poor lead.

More good sequences today with the G1 Madison featured at Keeneland and a pair of listed stakes at Oaklawn ahead of Friday’s Apple Blossom. On the topic of OP’s Racing Festival of the South, Wednesday saw an impressive win by Mamma Kimbo in the Fantasy as she effortlessly dispatched Amie’s Dini in her 2nd career start and first try around two turns. Big talent.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

First capped juvenile race of ’12! I’ll dig deep and take… Wesley Ward and… Wesley Ward. #3 The Roofer (Half to SW Pace Town) may merit a slight edge over his stablemate #1 Handsome Jack given his local drills..

Most Likely: #3 The Roofer 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Handsome Jack 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Joha 3-1 5th

6th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Point of Entry 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #7 Tahoe Lake 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Belo Acteon 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Pleasant Run 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-7) $15.50
$1 Trifecta (2-7-10) $62.90
$1 Superfecta (2-7-10-6) $328.50

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Tightly packed group with favored Fantasy of Flight solid but not invincible..

Best Value: #8 Its About Midnight 6-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Fantasy of Flight 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Abriana 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Avid 6-1 4th

8th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Excellent cast including ’11 F&M Sprint Champ Musical Romance who handled this strip adroitly in last fall’s TCA..

Most Likely: #2 Musical Romance 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Groupie Doll 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #9 Ariana D 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sugarinthemorning 5-1 6th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Anna Sophia 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Kitty Wine 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Run a Risk 12-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Tell Me Everything 6-1 7th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-3
6: 2
7: 7-8-11
8: 2-5-8-9
9: 3-4/SCR-6

2x1x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-10
7: 7-8-11
8: 2-5-8-9
9: 3-4/SCR-6-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/6,7/8/10) Paid $331.50

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, F&M-3,4,5yo, 8.5f (P4)

Best Value: #4 Fouteengunsalute 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Time Counts 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Returned to Sender 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Isla 3-1 3rd

8th: 33rd Carousel, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Very interesting group. Faves OK but there’s no shortage of price players. Note Fawkes shipping from Calder with 5yo Dizney mare (#5 Omi’s Vindication) looking for black type..

Best Value: #2 Mysterious Chimes 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Beat the Blues 2-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Omi’s Vindication 10-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Salty Strike 5-2 4th

9th: 2nd Red Bud, F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

SCR of Tiz Miz Sue renders ML meaningless..

Most Likely: #3 Cascabella 3rd
Best Value: #6 Another World WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #4 Remit 2nd

10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Frannie G 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Over Spiced 10-1 WON ($24.60)
Next Best: #10 Embers Glowing 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Kiss and Fly 10-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-8-9
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 3-6
10: 1-8-10

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/3/6/8) Paid $448.05

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Good morning line makes it tough to find value, but it may come from the 4-1 on #8 Fourseventeen who sends conflicting signals. Tony Dutrow had to shelf the $30k claimant for 12 weeks after Michael Dubb — as shrewd at the claim box as anyone around — chose to collar him at GP. That says he was not right or got sick. While 44% first off the claim overall, Dutrow surprisingly is just 3 for 16 (19%) when he’s had to wait (60-180 days) to get new acquisitions back on the track. Fourseventeen has had 4 works since the post-tag 6 week break and draws Napravnik. It’s also interesting that the NY bred runs in this quirky open company event when eligible for his state-bred condition..

Best Value: #8 Fourseventeen 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 King Ting 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Change of Command 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #6 Lindell A. C. 10-1 5th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As pointed out by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, #4 Sing Like a Bird (Now SCR’d) from low profile Pugh must have had buzz as 2yo drawing Dominguez for Saratoga debut and going off as 3-2 fave. Didn’t lift a hoof, disappeared for 8+ months and returns here with Chris DeCarlo as 2-1 ML choice. Shaky..

Most Likely: #9 Bandini’s Diamond 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Typhoon Teri 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Deputy Jazz 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Hall of Flame 8-1 8th

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Race is uglier than it looks on paper with suspect after suspect and lots of murky turf breeding. The 2 short priced favorites (#3 Vintage Heirloom and #4 Bye Love You) feel unreliable, but any direction you take thereafter will be a reach. #9 Blazing Arches has the top and bottom pedigree for lawn, but as Andy pointed out on Tuesday, did not sell well and hasn’t shown a spec of talent. #7 Three Bet dropped from a dam that had real success on the lawn, but like Blazing Arches, hasn’t shown even modest ability. Believe in Betty and She’s Starstruck would be wider ticket alternatives for the multis..

Most Likely: #4 Bye Love You 8-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Blazing Arches 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Three Bet 8-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Funny assembly and good betting affair as once you get beyond the faves, there are with some horses that have races in their past that can compete here at prices..

Most Likely: #5 Quietism 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Awesome Merger 20-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Our Eli 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Silent Thunder 5-1 7th

8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mela Dramatically 8-5 4th
Next Best: #3 Junoon 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mah Jong Maddnes 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) She’s Always Hot 5-1 2nd

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tycoon Cat 5-2 8th
Best Value: #2 One Speedy Cat 6-1 WON ($15.60)
Next Best: #1 Camie’s Magic 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Lucky Lil Liam 6-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2–3/SCR-4-6-7-9
7: 1-3-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 2-3

6x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 12f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

While top pair appear a slight notch above, next three — including #4 Soul of Nataka (5-1) — are interchangeable..

#2 Starformer SCR’s

Most Likely: #3 Hasay 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Rose Medallion 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Soul of Nataka 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Turns My Head 6-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hard to not root for breakthrough from Stewart Madison’s and Andy Leggio’s Mr. Ticket, son of the late Happy Ticket, one of my favorites ever. Looks to have found the right field too..

Most Likely: #3 Mr. Ticket 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Karma Shield 2-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Never Cross 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Sir McIntyre 5-2 WON ($6.60)

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Lopresti here with Casino Dan, ouchy brother of Wise Dan and Friday return winner Successful Dan. Broke maiden at Turfway 2/20 and looks to have been immediately pointed for this..

Most Likely: #5 Casino Dan 4-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Voodoo Doctor 20-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Red Ace 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Saint Will 12-1 5th

7th: ALW/C, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

One of the highlights on a busy Wednesday of racing is this stakes quality allowance that includes return of ’11 Queens Plate winner Inglorious for Donver & Josie Carroll. Not an easy spot by any measure and given it is her first turf start, this may simply be a season-starting tightener. Along with Inglorious, 7 more of the 11 here are making their first start of the year and 2 more (Lunar Mist & Good Karma) are coming in off Jan/Feb starts. Only Ravi’s Song is in the midst of a form cycle, so don’t expect that 12-1 to hold up..

Most Likely: #11 Marketing Mix 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #5 Ravi’s Song 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Hungry Island 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Miss Liberty 3-1 10th

8th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Networking 8-5 4th
Next Best: #5 One Last Nighmare 2-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #11 Lady Durlyn 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of Scioto 8-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Awesome and Wild 12-1 3rd

<$50 P5 Play:

4: 3-4-5-7
5: 3
6: 1-4-5-9-11-12
7: 5-7-10-11
8: 7

4x1x6x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-5
6: 1-4-5-9-11-12
7: 5-7-10-11
8: 5-7

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P4)

Fave Bet the Power can adjust to whatever pace scenario develops but 2nd choice City Cool needs to improve to compete..

Most Likely: #5 Bet the Power 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Chief of Affairs 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Picko’s Pride 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Dryden 8-1 WON ($18.00)

8th: MDN CLM, 3-5yo, 1m (P3)

Best Value: #7 Alejandro B 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Tensaw 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Artillery 7-2 3rd

9th: 40th Fantasy (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Mamma Kimbo 5-2 WON ($$4.80)
Next Best: #8 Amie’s Dini 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Illegally Blonde 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Wait Til Dawn 9-2 4th

10th:ALW/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #8 Strasbourg 9-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Speighter Man 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Basalt 10-1 –
Super Add: #6 Jerry n’ Elvis 3-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-2-7-8
10: 5-6-8-11

1x3x4x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Idle American 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Mr. Vantastic 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Fox Rules 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Chilton 15-1 5th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Some notable pedigrees including Ribaletta daughter Riboletti and POE Evening Garden, a half to Harmonious debuting for Jimmy Jerkens. Silverette the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #4 Silverette 8-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #3 Riboletti 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Stunning Lady 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Evening Garden 10-1 7th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

More classy MDN’s including Zito FL returnee Spin Out (Hard Spun) who is a half to sire Friendly Island, Car Talk (Bernardini) a half to Dixie Chatter and 4yo Crepuscolo (Johannesberg), a half to Lion Heart. WinStar’s Desert Storm from Mott was ticketed to be a Derby Trail horse but dropped rider and ran off before first scheduled GP start which slowed his ’12 campaign. Spin Out ran into Flashy Dresser last time. Guyana Star Dweej ran huge on Gotham Day behind IL Derby candidate Morgan’s Guerilla and then matched that try behind Term Loan 3 weeks ago. C. Brown’s Rum Tug Tugger was also in the Flashy Dresser race and will likely improve here in 2nd start. Terrific race..

Most Likely: #10 Spin Out 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Desert Storm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Quorum 15-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Crepuscolo 20-1 10th

.10 SUPER: 10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched set of NY breds with 6 of the 13 looking possible. Spread it around..

Most Likely: #3 Robert’s Breach 7-2 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #12 Easy Street 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Readbytheline 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Ecstatic Cat 10-1 12th

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group with locals getting back on the lawn. Jump up efforts possible, so a challenging end to the quad sequence. Note AE #14 Frisky Cat (15-1) would be intriguing first turf out of Dynaformer mare Risky Agenda who never won in 8 starts (0-2-2; $32k) but was more than respectable in defeat..

Most Likely: #4 Ampersand 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #1 Mia Poppy 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Snacks 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Dreamalot 6-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4
3: 2-6-10
4: 2-3-4-8-10-12
5: 1-3-4-5

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Macho Dorado 5-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Cosmic King 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Le Bernardin 3-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Cribnote 10-1 7th

7th: 63rd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Nice edition of this as the good 3yo fillies begin to line up. Have been singing praises of Millionreasonswhy and this is opportunity for her to be re-introduced to a wider audience after being closest match for Champion My Miss Aurelia as 2yo. Even money favorite Broadway’s Alibi beat no one when freaking on sealed Gulfstream slop and is in for a rude awakening here. An enthusiastic play-against..

Most Likely: #3 Millionreasonswhy 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Singlet 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Welcome Guest 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Broadway’s Alibi 1-1 WON ($4.30)

8th: 52nd Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Lots of pace signed on which makes it feel like Hardened Wildcat gets desired set up. Respect Trinniberg cut from same cloth as speedy, overachieving sire..

Most Likely: #6 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Trinniberg 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #8 How Do I Win 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 King and Crusader 8-1 5th

9th: 88th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Straightforward edition of this spring standard with top 4 on ML the ones you have to work through. Alpha and Gemologist aren’t appreciably dominant stacked up against My Adonis and Street Life, so don’t be affraid to key off the longer prices if that was your inclination. Kelly Breen and Chad Brown every bit as likely to have charges tuned properly as McLaughlin and Pletcher..

Most Likely: #1 Alpha 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 My Adonis 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Gemologist 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Street Life 4-1 6th

10th: 112th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Outstanding, taut group for this preface to the Met Mile. Caleb’s Posse should be knocking on Emcee’s door late..

Most Likely: #3 Caleb’s Posse 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Emcee 7-2 4th/5th
Exotics Use: #2 Jackson Bend 3-1 WON ($11.40)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3 (1-5-6)
8: 1-6-8
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 1-3

Main: 1x3x4x2 = 24 x $1.50 = $36
Back-up: 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

11th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #13 Molly’s Ship 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Drink With Pride 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #2 Heiden 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #3 Max’s First 6-1 4th

HAWTHORNE

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 55th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

This is a silly race with any combination of mediocrities possible. Pick a bunch at prices and have fun with it. No opinion is ridiculous here..

Best Value: #1 Romancing the Gold 15-1 13th
Next Best: #5 Pretension 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #13 Done Talking 20-1 WON ($27.20)
Super Add: #3 Ring It Up 15-1 6th

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 75th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Will protect I’ll Have Another in multis and exotics but look for values with the highly probable Creative Cause..

Most Likely: #1 Creative Cause 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Brother Francis 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 I’ll Have Another 5-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Longview Drive 12-1 9th

7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Fiddlers Afleet 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #8 Ultimate Decision 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Next Door Neighbor 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Oilisblackgold 5-1 3rd

8th: 32nd Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lady of Shamrock 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Charm the Maker 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Killer Graces 8-1 3rd

9th: 30th Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Amazombie 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #1 Sway Away 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Roman Threat 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Camp Victory 6-1 3rd

10th: 3rd American Beauty, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Belle Royale 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Imperialistic Diva 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Go Forth North 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Rosehill Dew 15-1 9th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Midnight Con 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Ron Burgundy 6-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #8 Galitzaner 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Swiss Game 6-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Bespoke Suit 20-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-7
9: 1-2
10: ALL
11: 1-6-8

3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/2/7-2/4/7/8-4-6) Paid $99.30

 

In the long run, Wednesday’s $106 P4 isn’t going to make or break the 2012 ledger, but I’m still annoyed that I missed the play. The way Jacobson continues to send out formful horses, it was foolhardy to omit Saginaw from the ticket in the 8th. Saginaw was much the best, though Alan Garcia approached the race timidly on favorite Joan’s Choice. When Think I’m Hooked SCR’d from the 6th, the opportunity was there to add Saginaw, but I feared Misslewhileuwork getting loose in the sequence starter and subbed him instead. I need not have worried as the Galluscio trainee broke on top and stopped after a half. The two turf maiden events produced mundane winners in $10 Penthouse Party and $4.20 Shaun Washington, so the possibility of a big payoff evaporated, but a $27k carryover is out there Thursday thanks to healthy prices winning the 4th and 5th. Santa Anita has a terrific sequence of races too that I felt compelled to ‘cap.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$27k C/O starts here..

Favored Preach Tome Daddy is OK, but not that much more likely than some of the lawn returnees or dirt to turf movers. Tough start to difficult P6 sequence..

Most Likely: #7 Party of Interest 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Tahima 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Preach Tome Daddy 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Thisizsparta 4-1 2nd

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult set with three speedy ML faves and a possible pick-up-the-pieces type in 12-1 This Hard Land. 3yo Panthro and 9yo Ruffino return in new barns having been acquired for $75k and $14k respectively..

Most Likely: #5 Moonlight Song 3-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Panthro 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 This Hard Land 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Ruffino 2-1 4th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another mindbender with generally non-descript cast. Easiest possible approach to this would be #11 (AE) Viv’s Tiara drawing in (Does draw in). After that, good luck. Some sidebars include Beppj (12-1) going 2nd route and to lawn where full brother Mr. Hooker and full sister Sister Berta both won with mid-70’s Beyers. Twillerbee, making her turf bow, is a half to Thisizsparta who runs an hour earlier. Style Watch is first off the claim by Repole who cleverly gave her back to original trainer Carlos Martin. Carlos trained the dam On the Catwalk for the late Carl Lizza and lost this filly in the Flying Zee dispersal. On the Catwalk won her 4 races on the turf and you would expect Martin wants to do well immediately for Repole and lures Castellano..

Most Likely: #11 Viv’s Tiara 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #7 Style Watch 8-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Beppj 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Katy’s Office Girl 7-2 3rd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Our own enigmatic Dee Tee filly Ausable Chasm included in this cast and with as much speed as there is signed on, hoping she can pick up some pieces late and boost the tri/super. Rudy Rod entry looks tough to beat with the good bug boys aboard..

Most Likely: #1 My Sydney Girl 2-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Nolita 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Soldierette 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #6 Ausable Chasm 30-1 4th

8th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Yet another scramble with the faves very respectable and Cause I Can intriguing..

Most Likely: #9 Desert Wheat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Cause I Can 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Good Prospect 5-2 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #3 East Indies 5-1 5th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (Super)

Call First will be a heavy favorite but doesn’t have to win. Outside pair command attention and Joburg Star scares moving to Jacobson..

Most Likely: #3 Call First 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Joberg Star 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Prince Majestic 4-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Bomber Boy 7-2 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-5-7
5: 4-5-7
6: 7-11
7: 1
8: 9
9: 3-6-11

4x3x2x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75/<$36 P4 Play:

6: 7-11
7: 1-5-6-7
8: 2-4-9
9: 3-6-11

2x4x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (6/11/12-7-4-11) Paid $632.00 ($316 for .50)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very nice group with 4 of them already winners down the hill..

Most Likely: #7 Belle Passe 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #1 Hidinginplainsight 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Vegas Babe 9-2 5th

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

First time starters — which is what FTS means when you see it — and 2nd timers and some nicely bred ones too. Baffert brings back Giant’s Causeway daughter of House of Fortune, #7 Splendid Fortune, while Sadler debuts Sweet Results, full sister to Clubhouse Ride..

Most Likely: #7 Splendid Fortune 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Perpetua 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Propero 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Instant Royalty 6-1 7th

5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

M. Jones favorite will take some beating, but hard not root for ‘Luck’ star John Ortiz who has bought in with Mrs. Auerbach and Barry Abrams on #4 My Yammy Heat. Ortiz, who brought Turo Escalante to life, has totally been taken in by racing and is now a Santa Anita regular. Sems up against it here, but Ortiz’ enthusiasm and drum beating for the sport merits appreciation and reward..

Most Likely: #8 Unbridled Ambition 8-5 4th
Next Best: #10 Comin Easy 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Gypsy Friday 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 My Yammy Heat 8-1 8th

6th: OC/N2X, F& M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 American Lady 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Miss Radiance 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Mildly Offensive 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Chukchi Sunrise 5-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Caelis 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Meltarib 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Triveni 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Heidi Maria 7-2 5th

8th: CLM, 4+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

SCR #3, #8, #9..

Brutally tough finale with class droppers to decipher..

Most Likely: #5 Man Chester Man 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #11 Maker 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Devils Afleet 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #10 All My Chips 15-1 7th

<$25 P6 Play:

3: 7
4: 7
5: 8
6: 1-2
7: 1-2-6
8: 5-11

1x1x1x2x3x2 = 12 X $2 = $25

@$50 P4 Play:

5: 8-10
6: 1-2-6
7: 1-2-6
8: 1-4-5-10-11-12/SCR

2x3x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54