CHURCHILL DOWNS — 138th KENTUCKY OAKS

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, Super)

You start handicapping a big weekend card and it’s a modest-looking group of MDN fillies until you come to Margolis sending $475k Ghostzapper daughter out of the great Azeri to her 2nd start (#6 Wine Princess)..

Most Likely: #1 Holiday’s Jewel 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Finallyarealady 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Wine Princess 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Ticket to Broadway 8-1 3rd

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I’ll give Monarchic one more chance getting Castellano after enduring super premium headaches in last under Leparoux..

Most Likely: #4 Monarchic 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #7 Madris 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Lord Tarzan 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Flexiplus 12-1 10th

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Jones filly doesn’t look like she’ll be caught..

Best Value: #4 YOUNG AND LOVELY 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Delightful Magic 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Queen Teuta 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Malibu Holiday 4-1 5th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group that may require wide spread in both P4’s..

Best Value: #7 Illegally Blonde 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Funny Proposition 6-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Ire 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Uptown Bertie 4-1 2nd

5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Dancinginherdreams 10-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #1 Bouquet Booth 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Sassy’s Dream 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Vera Belle 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-7-10
3: 4-7
4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 1-3-4-6-10

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Suppose singling Plum Pretty the way to go in the P4/P6, but a couple small backups or P3’s with Juanita and Afleeting Lady may be worthwhile just in case the fave misfires..

Most Likely: #4 Plum Pretty 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Juanita 8-1 WON ($35.40)
Next Best: #1 Afleeting Lady 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 St. John’s River 5-1 2nd

7th: Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Under the radar event features three speedy gals in Contested, Small Kitchen and Good Deed. Small Kitchen turns back which could be the perfect formula and if things collapse, Xunlei can pick them up late..

Most Likely: #7 Contested 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Small Kitchen 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Good Deed 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Xunlei 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 1-3-4-6-10
6: 4
7: 2-3-7

5x5x1x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)

8th: Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hard to get too adventurous against Stephanie’s Kitten, but you can certainly play around with numbers underneath..

Most Likely: #3 Stephanie’s Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #10 Treasured Up 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Run a Risk 6-1 9th

9th: Alysheba, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Absolutely terrific assembly of handicap talent. Nates Mineshaft will not sneak off on this group..

Most Likely: #4 Mucho Macho Man 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Fort Larned 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Successful Dan 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Nates Mineshaft 5-1 6th

10th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

All the Derby talk about how good the 3yo crop may be and here’s 14 turfers to consider in that discussion. The field’s two graded stakes winners are rendered vulnerable marooned far outside setting up an incredible wagering opportunity..

Best Value: #10 Travel Advisory 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gung Ho 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Scatman 20-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Finnegans Wake 20-1 4th

11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Truly an ideal distaff side prequel to Saturday’s feature as an outstanding set of fillies strive for the lilies. As much as pace has been discussed for Derby, this event features as many or more front end oriented runners, so anyone that can sit comfortably or close stoutly should get their chance. Favored pair inside (On Fire Baby/Grace Hall) are formidable but not invincible and as strong as Broadway’s Alibi has been it’s tough not respect her as she tries to stretch out 220 more yards. Jemima’s Pearl couldn’t have been more impressive matching strides with Bodemeister the other morning and feels like the right price to use prominently v. Summer Applause who has been AWOL a little during morning training hours..

Most Likely: #2 Grace Hall 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Jemima’s Pearl 10-1 10th
Next Best: #1 On Fire Baby 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Broadway’s Alibi 4-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #10 And Why Not 15-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 2-3-7
8: 3
9: 2-3-4
10: 2-10
11: 1-2-6-8

1x3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3
9: 2-3-4
10: 2-5-7-8-10-11-13-14
11: 1-2-6-8-10-11

1x3x8x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 1-2-6-8
Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18

4×6 = 24 x $2 = $48

<$100 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 1-2-6-8
Woodford: 2-5-6-10
Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18

4x4x6 = $96

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Card starts with a notable pedigree in daughter of Azeri and ends with one via debuting Bellazzeria, a Henny Hughes bay out of nice MSW Boots n’ Jackie making her a half to the memorable Supah Blitz (!) as well as through Bernie Flint’s FTS Divine Dispatch, a Touch Gold daughter that is a full sister of Composure and Ready Set..

Most Likely: #6 Vuitton 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 That’s Me 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Divine Dispatch 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Totally Tucker 5-1 WON ($11.40)

Focus obviously has been on lead up to big weekend here in Kentucky, but $103k double carryover at Belmont Thursday on fun set of races is hard to pass up with $90k feature assembling great group of graded stakes players..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

ALL TURF RACES (4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th) TAKEN OFF

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Bid a Moon
Next Best: #12 Hard Life
Best Value: #6 Rock Star Royalty
Exotics Use: #9 D’oro Princess

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Smart Stride
Next Best: #1a Surhoof

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of top pair appear best returning to races they each ran 2 back. Martin goes T2D with D’Ominator after dismal unveiling at 13-2. Quick turnaround a family training specialty..

Most Likely: #7 Canwewin 7-2
Next Best: #1 Heavy Duty 3-1
Best Value: #6 D’ Ominator 12-1
Exotics Use: #3 Indian Pow Wow 4-1

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Al Mudeer 6-1
Next Best: #9 Back Room Deal 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Avenged 5-1
Super Add: #7 Ecstatic Cat 20-1

8th: Milesius, 3+, 10f-OFF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Redeemed
Next Best: #10 Birdrun

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF (Super)

Most Likely: #16 Thisskysabeauty 2-1
Next Best: #15 Mahfouz 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Oh So Debonaire 5-1
Super Add: #1 Special Action 8-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 6-9-12-13
5: 9
6: 1-6-7
7: 5-9-10
8: 10-12
9: 16

4x1x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6-7
7: 5-9-10
8: 10-12
9: 15-16

3x3x2x2 = $36 ($72 for $1)

Good luck!
Steve

Having trouble finding end zones the past week and deep, difficult races starting the Belmont meet a contributing factor. Other than To Honor and Serve’s facile Westchester score, could not get a quality read on the day’s heats in Elmont. Three turf sprints to end the Sunday slate won’t make the going any easier, eitherHad some nice success at Hollywood later Saturday but left the Carla Gaines nightcap winner off the P4 play which cost the close out. All the winners were somewhere in the P6 sequence but it was the kind of play where you needed some luck connecting the dots and score-o’s returned a worthwhile $13k. Good P4 at Inglewood Sunday which includes the the G3 Wilshire.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating group includes debuting Bernstein half sis to Gio Ponti (#8 Antonia Autumn) and second out, dirt/turf half to Harmonious from Jimmy Jerkens (#5 Evening Garden). Note Kimmel back with FTS #2 Passeporta who sports similarly long string of drills as Saturday 27-1 stunner Coexist..

Most Likely: #9 Debase the Dollar 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Madame Giry 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Antonia Autumn 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Evening Garden 12-1 8th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Zellwegger 4-1 8th
Best Value: #11 Missysmoonlitmagic 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Nice Stuff 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Manero 7-2 6th

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Fun betting race with no reason to be intimidated by faves Runflatout (3-1) or King Arthur (4-1)..

Most Likely: #1 New Yawker 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Fisherman’s Wharf 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Deerslayer 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Galaxy Kat 15-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

#4 Dita (2-1) is another vulnerable favorite..

Most Likely: #11 Rennina 3-1 10th
Best Value: #5 Red Code 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Dita 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Fall Into Faith 30-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-8-9
8: 6-7-9-11
9: 1-5-10
10: 4-5-11

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Many of these take turns beating each other, so perhaps Cassidy interloper from stakes company is the way to lean..

Best Value: #1 Fifth Commandment 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Linda Lou 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Nice Meidel 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Missdealornodeal 3-1 WON ($8.20)

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Imperial Pride 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Dancing at Dark 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Star Nicholas 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 My Man Sumo 7-2 5th

8th: 51st Wilshire H. (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Briecat 6-1 DH-2nd
Next Best: #7 Up in Time 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Nereid 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Wild Mia 4-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

$36k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #2 Running Isabella 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #9 Red Intrigue 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Late SCR (RIP)
Exotics Use: #6 Secret Genius 5-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #5 Nifty Dream 5-1 3rd

<$75 Hi-5 Play: 2 with 6–8-9 with 6-8-9 with 5-6-8-9 with All (1x3x2x2x5 = $60)

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-5-7
7: 1-5-9-10
8: 1-3-4-5-7
9: 2

5x4x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Wild start to P4 with many trying turf or stretching out like Suns Out Guns Out, Darwin Award and Redemption Road. Add those to the more experienced lawn runners and you’ve got a scrambler..

Most Likely: #7 Distortionist 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Darwin Award 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Suns Out Guns Out 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Repemption Road 10-1 8th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Town Flirt best here by seemingly wide margin on drop, but doesn’t the drop itself concern you?

NOTE: #13 World Premier DOES draw in..

Most Likely: #9 Born Flirt 7-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Beppj 12-1 7th
Next Best: #13 World Premier 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Persky’s Heart 10-1 2nd

9th: 84th Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Yet another handicap division star returns as To Honor and Serve preps here for the Met Mile. Normally Mott returnees not tight, but Hall of Famer described by Grening as ‘giddy’ this week in anticipation of Live Oak colt’s 4yo so go against at your own risk..

SCR Ponzi Scheme & Marilyn’s Guy, so no Super..

Most Likely: #6 To Honor and Serve 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #1 Boys at Toscanova 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Deed 12-1 3rd

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rock N Cozy 8-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Three Zips 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Gianni 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Mighty Reward 10-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8-10-11
8: 5-7-9-13
9: 6
10: 2-5-6-10

6x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 13th Grey Memo-CA, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$65k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Caffeine High 7-2 8th
Next Best: #5 Pulpit’s Express 5-1 12th
Best Value: #9 Relentless Heat 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Gatheratthealter 8-1 WON ($19.60)

.10 SUPER: 3-5 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 (2x5x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

6th: 17th Melair-CA, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

As much as Solis made the right call avoiding Kentucky fever, Willa B Awesome runs into a couple of nice ones in the likes of Starry Skies and Starlight Magic and is vulnerable out of lay-it-down SA Oaks..

Most Likely: #4 Willa B Awesome 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Starry Skies 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Starlight Magic 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Warren’s Amber 8-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Blue Jay Attack 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 My Summer Slew 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Streakin’ Mohican 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #7 Inuit Fisher 4-1 4th

8th: 19th Snow Chief-CA, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group and I think we all need to fool around with the 2 maidens..

Best Value: #4 D’ Obsession 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Unusual Heatwave 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Stoney Fleece 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Dylan Donnelly 6-1 3rd

9th: 10th Tiznow-CA, 4+, 7.5f (DD, Super)

Plenty of pace to set up Mobilized who blows by them all running back to the downhill ALW effort last.

Most Likely: #1 MOBILIZED 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #5 Italian Rules 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Joy Boy 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 M One Rifle 9-2 5th

10th: 13th NTRA-CA, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Night Wind 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Bertrando Falls 8-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Swift Eagle 6-1 12th
Exotics Use: #14 Enduring Promise 9-2 5th
Super/Hi-5: #3 Valentine Boy 6-1 WON ($15.20)

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-5
6: 2-4-5
7: 2-6
8: 3-4
9: 1
10: 1-2-6

2x3x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7
8: 3-4-8-10
9: 1-5
10: 1-2-6

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

Must pay P6 at Aqueduct today and it’s a very difficult set of races that sees added confusion thanks to half the events coming off the turf. Rain being guaranteed but hard to know how sloppy things will be. Watch for extensive SCR’s and be prepared to adjust play to conditions..

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 City Kiss 2-1
Best Value: #10 Smarty Aya 12-1
Next Best: #2 Bangzoomtothemoon 5-2
Exotics Use: #13 Dandy’s Noble 6-1

5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Deep, contentious group. Nearly all plausible with your view of pace scenario the deciding factor..

Best Value: #10 Perfect Drive 12-1
Next Best: #7 Al’s Lark 3-1
Exotics Use: #11 Call Me Tony 8-1
Super Add: #2 Ezzy 8-1

6th:NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Worst kind of race for must-play multi sequence given widely undefinable qualities of modest group, wet track unknowns and pair of first time starters. Does look like there’s no shortage of speed signed, so someone who stalks and pounces feels like the .

Best Value: #8 Sweet Moon 8-1
Next Best: #5 Pogonia 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Our Pink Ribon 6-1
Super Add: #1e Purchase entry 6-1

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Keep Me Informed 4-1
Best Value: #6 Best Actor 8-1
Next Best: #15 Mineswept 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Dominant Jeannes 4-1

8th: NY-Fabersham, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

What a nice group of veteran state bred stakes runners..

Most Likely: #1a Uncle T Seven 3-1
Next Best: #6 Law Enforcement 4-1
Best Value: #7 Wee Freudian 12-1
Super Add: #2 Be Bullish 4-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Very tough finish with pace a question depending on who stays in..

Most Likely: #10 Thisskysabeauty 3-1
Best Value: #11 Atitlan 12-1
Next Best: #14 Mason’s Comprise 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Mightylover 8-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-8-10
5: 7-10
6: 5-8
7: 6-11-15
8: 1-6
9: 10

3x2x2x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-8
7: 6-11-15
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 9-10-11-14

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve