BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: SLW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent group. Clement’s ‘first North America’ favorite #8 Barocci (2-1) has ‘that look’ of an impact import, but the next 3-4 all are solid citizens..

Most Likely: #8 Barocci 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 The Paddyman 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Kanagaro 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Reserve Currency 7-2 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Looked at this race Friday before odds had posted and hoped McPeek’s #4 Why Take a Chance might be 2nd or 3rd choice, but Eric Donovan makes him 2-1 to start the bidding. Gets ‘triple whammy’ karma makeover dropping down (open to state bred), cutting back and going turf to dirt. And adds Lasix..

Most Likely: #4 Why Take a Chance 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Silver Over Gold 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Class Action Suit 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 American Trilogy 10-1 8th

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

No surprises here as some mixture of the top 4 ML choices seem apparent..

Most Likely: #2 Counterparty 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Limonar 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Rogue’s Jewel 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 La Pernelle 5-2 WON ($6.80)

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (Super)

Weak group. Watch for SCR’s as AE’s (13-14-16) all better than body of field..

WOW.. 13, 14 draw in..

Next Best: #14 Princess Malia 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #13 La Billos 7-2 7th
Best Value: #8 Tati 6-1 8th
Super Add: #9 St. Jean 3-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8
8: 3-4-7
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 8-13-14

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, Super)

$29k P5 C/O starts here..

Let’s hope things stay on turf today — 20% chance of showers — as #9 Carly’s Real Deal (5-2) is nice single to start the sequence..

Most Likely: #9 Carly’s Real Deal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dont Meswit Goldie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Principato 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Hey Brayden 5-1 9th

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

A bunch of these come out of identical heat 4/27, so stranger like Shes Notable a very viable alternative..

Most Likely: #2 Shes Notable 6-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Kylie’s Wild 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Lady Marian Louise 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Lady of Samaria 8-1 WON ($31.00)

7th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, Super)

Interesting money ALW features seasonal debut of GSW mare Tamarind Hall as well NA bow of 12/12 Panamanian mare from Marty Wolfson who bypassed Sat. stake in favor of this..

Most Likely: #2 Tamarind Hall 9-5 4th
Next Best: #5 Amor de Palacio 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Bessie M 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Callmethesqueeze 8-1 WON ($21.20)

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Red Jag 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #6 Don’t Say No 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Troubles Comin 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Hollywood Left 5-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Eruption Zone 3-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Daddy Again 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Red Zone Flyer 5-2 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Dancing for Lois 20-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 9
6: 2-3-6-7-8-9-10-11
7: 2-5
8: 2-6
9: 5-6-8

1x8x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-6-7-8-9-10-11
7: 2-5
8: 2-6
9: 6

8x2x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 (Play 3x for $48)

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$75k P6 C/O starts here..

Tough start to P6 with perhaps all but Majestic Moment capable. Big tix will buy the race..

Most Likely: #4 Qatar’s Pearl 5-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Montego Bay 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Stratify 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Death Star 4-1 WON ($8.00)

5th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 La Mano Nera 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #4 Intuitive Nature 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Blue Jay Attack 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #8 Nofty 5-2 2nd

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Langfuhr’s Lightening 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #8 King’s Red Journey 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Full’s Kris S. 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Jeffery’s Pride 12-1 3rd

7th: 4th Round Table, 4+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Lumberyard Jack 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Dhaamer 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic Host 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Quaintly 5-1 2nd

SCR #9 Falcon Rock 5-1

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ranchero 9-5 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #8 Meadow Road 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Member Ofthe Tribe 12-1 3rd

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

$29k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Very difficult end to the sequences. Taking a stand in the P6 here with 2nd timer Pourquoi Pas because dabbling with a few may still not be of much help..

Best Value: #7 Pourquoi Pas 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Eileen’s Dream 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 More Chocolate 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Chapel Chick 15-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Personal Sunset 6-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-6
5: 1-4
6: 4-8-10
7: 2-4-7
8: 4
9: 7

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (3/1/4/7,9/4,6/4) Paid $74.80 (5OF6)

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-8-10
7: 2-4-7–9/SCR
8: 4
9: 3-5-7-8-9-10-11-12

3x3x1x8 = $72 ($36 for .50)

 

Another Belmont carryover into Saturday, on the heels of bonus pots Wednesday and Thursday, further demonstrates the challenging new landscape in New York. While $40 Sylvestris was key to generating today’s $26k pool, another five of Friday’s 9 races produced winners of $10.00 or more. Full fields and a complex variety of runners from far flung bases is making the early portion of the meet exceedingly tricky. Mid-week action was complicated by off the turf events, but with the rain having subsided, a nice weekend of grass racing looms. The summer feels like it arrives today with Monmouth and Delaware Parks opening to add to your options including Monday slates at the quaint First State oval.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$26k C/O starts here..

NOTE: #13 (AE) Captain Goodenough (5-1) would need to be considered should he draw in..

Most Likely: #5 Sam’s Buck 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Northern Evader 8-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Alarmed Ndangerous 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Post Pattern 10-1 2nd

6th: Genuine Devotion, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (

Tough little overnight stake. Obvious contenders from top lawn outfits (Brown, Clement) figure tough but Weaver in with a shot at a number with MSP Ultimate Class and Going to Kukaro scares as wire threat..

SCR #8 Whipsaw City 5-2

Best Value: #9 Ultimate Class 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Going to Kukaro 4-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Liberty 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Sharnberry 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Digby B 7-2 11th
Best Value: #4 Renzo Bertoni 6-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #1 Leroidessioux 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Bustarella 12-1 4th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Antenna 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1a Fulton Street 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #13 Take Down Two 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Won Wild Dude 8-1 8th

9th: 58th Peter Pan (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Even with Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog scratching, a terrific rendition of this traditional Belmont S. prep. Feels like there is too much pace and pressure for one of the speeds to clear as pair inside (The Lumber Guy, Right to Vote) certain to hook up immediately with Le Bernadin and Master Rick stalking close up. Other half of the field made up of mid-pack stalkers and closers (Mark Valeski, Summer Front, Street Life, Good Morning Diva, Big Screen, Hakama) should get their targets..

Best Value: #4 Le Bernardin 15-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Mark Valeski 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #11 Summer Front 8-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Street Life 8-1 3rd

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Trainingforsuccess 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Frisky Cat 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Hidden Vow 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #5 Solengo 5-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 1-6-9
7: 3-4
8: 1-3
9: 4-5-11
10: 7-8

1x3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4
8: 1-3-13
9: 2-4-5-9-11-12
10: 7-8

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

MONMOUTH PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Fine Friends 6-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Final Forest 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Macho Mo Mon 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 No Fret 12-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Greatful Heir 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Busted Again 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #5 Deliguska 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Baffle Me 6-1 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Framed 9-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Playing a Joke 4-1 DNF-Fell
Exotics Use: #1 More Than Candy 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #6 Linebacker 7-2 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Chairman Now 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Small Town Talk 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dragonfish 8-1 2nd

10th: Decathlon, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very nice group for $75k. SCR Comedero who ran at BEL Thursday..

Best Value: #7 Flat Bold 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Bank Merger 9-2 DNF-Spill
Exotics Use: #9 Zero Rate Policy 3-1 DNF-Spill
Super Add: #4 Soaring Stocks 7-2 3rd

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 1-3-6-7-10-11
7: 3-4
8: 1-2-4-5-6-7
9: 4
10: 7-8

6x2x6x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

 

Wet weather will not abate in the Northeast and off turf action at Belmont helped trip another carryover into Thursday. Paul Pompa’s 26-1 Drink With Pride wired the 6th for Rene Araya under Jose Espinoza as the longest number on the board before Gabrilicious surprised the 7th at 15-1 assuring the $131k pot for today. Had started and finished the sequence with winners including the late double but wish the grass opportunities would start availing themselves. NYRA website reporting that they are off the turf again and main track starts out muddy. $277k Super Hi-5 carryover in the Churchill nightcap this afternoon as well…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N2X, &M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$131k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Sacred Success 4-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Myrtle’s Gray 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Bailzee 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dyna Vision 7-2 2nd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Brother of Uh Oh Bango back for Pletcher/Mill House after sharp maidenbreaker..

Most Likely: #2 Ez Effort 7-5 4th
Next Best: #1 E. H. Indy 3-1 WON ($12.00)
Best Value: #6 Cosmic King 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Majestic Hope 20-1 2nd

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Even though off the turf, many will stay in and it’s a very contentious bunch. Leaving the ML odds off as they aren’t relevant now. Make or break spot for P4 & P6 tix..

Most Likely: #9 Midnite Silver 2nd
Next Best: #8 Veiled Prophet 5th
Exotics Use: #4 So Scott 3rd
Super Add: #6 Writingonthewall 4th

7th: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Da Vinci 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #11 Photon 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Maybe’s  Master 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Robert’s Breach 3-1 7th

8th: Diablo, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

SCR #6 Jersey Town

Best Value: #2 Que Posse 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Travelin Man 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 This Ones for Phil 7-2 2nd

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Cybertron 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #8 Tycoon Cat 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #9 There Goes Vinny 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Warrior From Above 8-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5
5: 2
6: 4-8-9
7: 10
8: 1-2-4
9: 7-8

4x1x3x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-8-9
7: 10-11
8: 1-2-4
9: 7-8-9

4x2x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Neck ‘n Neck back here for Ian Wilkes but it’s hardly an easy spot..

Most Likely: #5 Neck ‘n Neck 7-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Jam 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 He’s So Proud 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Son of a General 5-1 5th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Derby Day remnant is $277k Super Hi-5 C/O on tricky group of $8k claimers..

Best Value: #4 Theodore’s Cash 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Laope 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Power Key 10-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Valued Assets 8-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Big Whiskey No Ice 7-2 8th

<$75 SUPER HI-5 PLAY: Key 4 in 1st/2nd with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with All (1x3x2x1x6 [36] + 3x1x2x1x6 [36] = $72)

 

After luckily escaping Oaks Day intact, got nothing right on Derby Day and exited Louisville Saturday night having taken a bad beating. When I had a notion or inclusion with potential, I was wrong about something else that prevented any meaningful cashings. Was fine with 6-1 Hungry Island winning the Distaff Turf, but Tapitsfly’s good effort interupted the tri. Had prepared for 11-1 Slim Shadey to run well in the Woodford Reserve but watched in disbelief as Little Mike just kept going.

As for Derby, I wasn’t nearly as frustrated by its’ outcome as the rest of the day’s… I had looked for a meltdown scenario and played that way keying off Dullahan, but the pace frying concept didn’t materialize between Bodemeister’s remarkable performance and a speed-assisting surface. I’ll Have Another was a horse that I couldn’t endorse making just a 3rd start in 8 months and Bodemeister was being asked for a special effort at too short a price to take. I said pre-race that I thought Bodemeister’s assignment was a Big Brown type of situation and I played against him as well. Those are the tough decisions to make playing Derby and you can be very right or very wrong.

Had no complaints about my top choice as Desormeaux and Dullahan put their run in and fell 2 lengths short while the presser-closers I was looking for like Sabercat, El Padrino and Done Talking never put a run together at all. Prospective’s race was over in the first 40 yards when clipping heels with Hansen and nearly losing Contreras. It was that kind of day and I hope my lack of success didn’t doom your weekend. One thing to note coming out of Derby Day is quixotic results the stakes-laden card produces annually. Andy Serling noted that every year it seems some results are generated that defy explanation in the sequence and a review of the last 6 years backs that up. Very few favorites manage to come through on the Derby card and it should be remembered for next year…

Turf Sprint/Eight Belles: $10.80, $8.80, $17.80, $9.60, $5.60, $11.60
Churchill Downs: $5.60, $28.60, $22.20, $10.60, $10.80, $18.40
Churchill DIS Turf: $13.80, $13.20, $15.40, $19.80, $26.20, $9.00
Humana Distaff: $8.20, $34.20, $19.20, $8.40, $30.00, $17.20
Woodford Reserve: $26.40, $17.00, $19.60, $5.60, $6.40, $18.80
Kentucky Derby: $32.60, $43.80, $18.00, $103.20, $6.80, $11.80

Carryover at Belmont Wednesday and don’t forget that Thursday offers a huge Hi-5 C/O on the Downs nightcap…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$37k C/O starts here..

The 4 droppers from MSW company (#’s 1-3-7-9) look right..

Most Likely: #1 Prince Arion 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #3 Secret Shifters 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Big Herman 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Redhotlion 15-1 7th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bellarella 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 My Honey Laurie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Full N Sassy 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Roman Renegade 6-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #15 Ea 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Red Leader 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Winaholic 12-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Fast Fleet Cat 5-1 11th
Next Best: #4 More Than Minted 7-5 8th
Exotics Use: #14 Readygetsgold 6-1 4th
Super Add: #13 My Trickster 6-1 6th

8th: Marta, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Chess match group of 5 for this little stake and with very little pace present, look for Dominguez to control things with Hammy Smith’s Aquitania..

Most Likely: #1 Aquitania 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #5 Her Smile 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Late Stakes SCR (Wet track)

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #16 Bedda Regina 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #6 World Premier 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 So Much Heart 12-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Proud Siren 20-1 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 3-5-8
6: 15
7: 2-4-13-14
8: 1
9: 6-15-16

2x3x1x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 10-11-15
7: 2-4-13-14
8: 1-5
9: 1-6-15-16

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

 

Arrive at Derby Day feeling fortunate to have had a single notion in La Troienne heroine Juanita that made it possible to keep head above water with a devious main track that played opposite of way it had been leaning Tuesday-Thursday. After starting to see inside speed do well before Friday, outer paths turned out to be the key to success up until the weather delay that sealed the track ahead of the Oaks. And after outside rallyers or stalkers spent the day overhauling pacesetters, Believe You Can and Broadway’s Alibi ran 1-2 all the way around in a race that had almost nothing lined up but front-end interested players.

Suggestion of protecting against heavy La Troienne favorite Plum Pretty (2-5!) with ‘Best Value’ 2nd choice Juanita was fortunate as the reformed claimer took the garden outside stalking path and won easily. Her $35.40 tote generated P3’s of $260, $207 and $149 covered all of the day’s other multis and then some. The .50 P4 returned $409 if you used Juanita on a back-up with the 3 chalky winners before and after. American Turf proved out as the day’s most challenging betting affair and biggest frustration as Romans’ Silver Max ran a remarkable race wire to wire to deny my key Travel Advisory (24-1) who arrived far too late to be 2nd. All in all, one of those days where you come away ready to fight today knowing you could have been luckier or you could have been beaten up badlyAs I write (now 4:30a), thunderstorms continue in the area and are forecast into mid-morning before expected clearing. So where are we with a racetrack that retiring superintendent Butch Lehr will groom for one last Derby Saturday? Hard to say right now. The Churchill main dries quickly and there is a chance that training is cancelled this morning if rain is still falling so they do not have to unseal it. You will have to monitor the surface today and be prepared to adjust your thinking and approach accordingly. Not an ideal way to go into one of the most anticipated betting cards of the year.

WEATHER UNDERGROUND LINK

Hope you did OK Friday, that we can make the most of today and that everyone enjoyed ATR coverage of Oaks-Derby 2012!

CHURCHILL DOWNS — 138TH KENTUCKY DERBY

POST-SCRATCHES

4TH OFF THE TURF, MAIN MUDDY & WILL DRY OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES

1st: OC/N2X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Atigun (7-5) isn’t that special..

Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Point Taken 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Afford 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Atigun 7-5 WON ($4.20)

2nd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Big Ring 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #10 Vasten 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Kingwood 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Master Clip 8-1 5th

NOTE: MAIN TRACK NOW MIRACULOUSLY FAST

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Faves appear simply better than the rest here. Notice that Coolmore cleverly gets Daddy Long Legs pilot Colm O’Donohue an early mount with Revolving..

Most Likely: #5 Golden Ticket 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Windsurfer 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Z Dager 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Event Center 15-1 10th

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Tonto Fontenot 6th
Next Best: #6 Stay Put 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 The Program 2nd
Super Add:# 11 Cool C Note 7th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Thermal Cat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mile High Magic 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Macho Macho 12-1 WON ($17.00)
Super Add: #5 Big Blue Nation 6-1 8th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-9-10
3: 5-7-10
4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: 18th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bridgetown feels like a free square toward the guaranteed P6 pool which already starts with a $269k carry..

Most Likely: #4 Bridgetown 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Great Attack 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #10 Great Mills 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 6th

7th: 78th Churchill Downs, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Wildly deep and tough group. Who would surprise you here? Even 20-1 Gantry is within the realm. Will’s Wildcat gets the desirable outside pressing trip and Amazombie always runs his race..

Best Value: #8 Will’s Wildcat 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Amazombie 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Smiling Tiger 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Hamazing Destiny 15-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6
6: 4
7: ALL

4x2x1x8 = $64 ($32 for .50)

8th: 27th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Proctor and Marketing Mix the ones to beat with the next few within range firing best shots..

Most Likely: #3 Marketing Mix 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 La Reine Lionne 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Hungry Island 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #8 City to City 15-1 7th

9th: 26th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific edition of this event which includes return of ’11 upsetter Sassy Image. As will be the case all day, how track is playing will be key to this as there isn’t the kind of pace lined up that you’d expect and Carla Gaines’ Mildly Offensive could steal away if speed holding..

Best Value: #5 Mildly Offensive 20-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Musical Romance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Switch 2-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Magical Feeling 30-1 3rd

10th: 26th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like the race on the card that will play the most straightforwardly with speeds assuring a fair chance for all styles..

Most Likely: #2 Turallure 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Doubles Partner 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Slim Shadey 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Brilliant Speed 12-1 3rd

11th: 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Can’t predict status of surface by post time, but have discussed most scenarios about this storied feature and will continue to presume a hot pace leads to a meltdown. Overnight odds below make Union Rags clear favorite at 5-1 with Take Charge Indy, Dullahan, Bodemeister, Hansen and Gemologist all hovering between 8-1 and 9-1.

1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O’Brien Colm O’Donoghue 26
2 Optimizer D. Lukas Jon Court 31
3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 8
4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 5
5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 9
6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 8
7 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 31
8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12
9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 40
10 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen Garrett Gomez 13
11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 21
12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 60
13 Went the Day Well H. Motion John Velazquez 27
14 Hansen Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez 9
15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 8
16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 30
17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 32
18 Sabercat Steven Asmussen Corey Nakatani 36
19 I’ll Have Another Doug O’Neill Mario Gutierrez 15
20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 58

The most glaring overlay on the win tote is Prospective as bizarrely, the longest shot on the board at 60-1. He has trained very well into the race and would particularly love it wet. El Padrino at 30-1 gains added interest with the off track potential. I will work around my original concept in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide tabbing of Dullahan, El Padrino, Sabercat and Done Talking and while utilizing a few other hard-to-avoid types (Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Gemologist — and now Prospective) in the gimmicks. Don’t be shy about going with what you like in this race. It was a particularly tough edition of the race going in and is now thrown into a bigger quandary by surface questions. Enjoy Derby 2012!

Most Likely: #5 Dullahan (8-1 ML/9-1 Current) 3rd
Best Value: #12 Prospective (30-1 ML/60-1 Current) 18th
Next Best: #16 El Padrino (20-1 ML/30-1 Current) 13th
Exotics Use: #18 Sabercat (30-1 ML/36-1 Current) 15th
Super Add: #17 Done Talking (50-1 ML/32-1 Current) 14th

<$30 .50 TRI: Key 5 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 (1x8x7 = 56 x .50 = $28)

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 1-6-8
8: 3-9-10
9: 1-5-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5

1x3x3x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-6-8
8: 3
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16

4x1x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-9-10
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16-18

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 BET THE POWER 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Enclosure 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 4th

13th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynamical 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Parabellum 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Nicklaus Way 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Z Camelot 4-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

10: 2-6
11: 3-4-5-6-7-10-11-12-15-16-18-19
12: 2–5/SCR
13: 1-5-7

2x12x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72