BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$49k P6 C/O starts here..

Modest group with 7 having had their chances and 4 yet to be labeled career maidens. Wouyld love to lean on #6 Chasing Piper (4-1), but Levine barn couldn’t be going any worse (29/1-2-3 on meet). Galluscio, good with firsters and even better unveiling them in MCLM company, offers #5 Nobody Cares (6-1) who may not need not to be much to best this set. Barbara debuts #9 Carpi Clements (8-1) here as well. Tricky start to challenging P6..

Most Likely: #6 Chasing Piper 4-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Nobody Cares 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Sunday to Remember 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Briolette 15-1 WON ($58.00)

6th: 6th Cupecoy’s Joy-NY, 3yo-F, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Very well-matched state bred gals with there’s no shortage of speed types signed on. My Jopia SCRATCHED, from the Galloping Grocer team, ran her best by far when shifted to the lawn. I think you have to trust Dominguez to utilize her properly. If there’s a collapse, I Bet Toni Knows looks like the one picking them up late..

Best Value: #3 Mah Jong Maddnes 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Manero 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 I Bet Toni Knows 6-1 WON ($17.20)
Super Add: #7 Stock Fund 8-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Albertrani finally gets Randal homebred Draw It (Tapit), 2nd to Awesome Feather in G1 Gazelle when last seen, back to the races. Tough spot though with several emergent missies present including first out aces Moment in Dixie (Toner/Phillips) & Resonating (J. Jerkens/Wygod) who are asked to stretch out a quarter mile from their debut scores. Mott returns Forbidden Gift who broke her maiden in the BEL mud at this trip. By A.P. Indy, she is the daughter of Private Gift, the Howard-trained Farish-Elkins filly that was famously left behind the Philly Park gate when the 2005 PA Oaks field was sent on their way..

Best Value: #2 Forbidden Gift 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Moment in Dixie 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Draw It 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #4 Resonating 10-1 2nd

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Another maddening turf sprint. Other than the 30-1 and 50-1 ‘shots, no one would be a surprise..

Most Likely: #1 Cash Bear 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 War Hitch 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Torment 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Dual Mandate 8-1 4th

9th: 7th Spectacular Bid-NY, 3yo, 7f-T (DD)

Like the Cupecoy’s Joy earlier, a compelling group. 8-1 is generous on King Kreesa who may need to be used a little early by Ortiz to gain position. 2-1 ML fave Sportswriter broke his maiden turf sprinting at Spa last year, but got much better on main as a 3yo. Disco On (8-1) and Western Tryst (5-1) are others that broke their maidens on grass. Reformed claimer Exciting Missle (20-1) won here on yielding turf 4/27 and can juice exotics with similar effort..

Best Value: #11 King Kreesa 8-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #5 Sportswriter 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Disco On 8-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Exciting Missle 20-1 8th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #12 No Three Words WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Youwontseeme 7th
Exotics Use: #14 Comity 6th
Super Add: #11 Prizemm 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5-6-8-11
6: 2-3-9
7: 1-2-5
8: 1
9: 5-11
10: 12

4x3x3x1x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (8/9/5/3,7,10,12/11/2,3,5,8,9,10,12,13) Paid $444.00 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5
8: 1-4-7-8
9: 4-5-8-9-10-11
10: 4-12

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/3,7,10,12/11/2,3,5,8,9,10,12,13) Paid $94.12

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 11th Alywow, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (.20 P3)

Tu Endie Wei is 8-5 making first turf start. Doesn’t have to win..

Best Value: #7 Blue Heart 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Tu Endie Wei 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Dene Court 3-1 WON ($8.50)

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (.20 P4, .20 P3, .20 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bear Mademoiselle 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Forest Gamble 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Sisterdini 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Crane Beach 7-2 2nd

8th: 69th Plate Trial-CND, 3yo, 9f (.20 P3, .20 Super)

Most Likely: #5 Big Creek 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Drago’s Best 10-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Beeker Street 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Menlo Castle 8-1 9th

9th: 57th Woodbine Oaks-CND, 3yo-F, 9f (DD, .20 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dixie Strike 6-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Northern Passion 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Irish Mission 6-1 WON ($20.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Awesome Fire 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (8-4) Paid $43.40
$1 Trifecta (8-4-3) Paid $583.60

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (.20 Super)

Most Likely: #7 Miami Deco 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Diamondsdiplomat 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Dubai Echo 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Bowman’s Causeway 3-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-7-8
8: 5-6-7-9
9: 4-6
10: 3-5-7-8

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Had real opportunity to hit carryover sequence at Belmont Friday identifying winners, (2 each on top, as 2nd and 3rd choices), but structured too poorly to score even a conso. Day’s big hit came in turf sprint of all things with Best Value $30.80 wire winner Ballistic Sue keying $127 exacta, $650 tri and $2,573 super. Hope everyone did well. Fun day around the racing world with the Epsom Derby this morning ahead of good afternoon of action at Belmont, Woodbine, Hollywood, Golden Gate ($80k C/O) and more ahead of 3 stake “Downs after Dark” card at Churchill…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

BELMONT TURF: 3rd, 6th, 8th OFF; 5th, 10th ON

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Moisture in track appears to help nearly the whole field. Very difficult start to the late P4..

Most Likely: #4 McCarren Park 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sunday at Nipper’s 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Smokin’ Alice 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Union Victory 7-2 5th

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Nonno’s Boy 2nd
Next Best: #12 Silent Thunder 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Maggie’s Hadder WON ($6.70)

9th: 62nd Vagrancy (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Sprint affair that is oddly absent of a lot of front end speed. Affair feels like it’s at the mercy of favored Nicole H. Kid Kate (6-1) loves BEL and wet tracks and Brown usually has them ready to fire off break..

Most Likely: #3 Nicole H 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a C C’s Pal 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Kid Kate 6-1 5th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #6 Go for Two 5-1 9th
Best Value: #2 Busterella 10-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Astonish 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Magic Middleton 5-2 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 3-12-14
9: 1-3-4
10: 2-4-6-9

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Gambler’s Beauty 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Yodelin Moon 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Ella Bea Awesome 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Graduator 5-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Starry Skies 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Lady Ten 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Self Preservation 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 She Spirit di Su 8-1 6th

8th: 59th Californian (G2), 9f (DD)

Game On Dude returns after ill-advised Dubai trip and note that he has never fired best shots off breaks. Shirreffs has had quirky Morning Life drill 3 times since 5/5/12 Mervyn LeRoy and you can expect a top try. Kettle Corn cost me a big HOL P4 when winning the Native Diver in December and looks to still be improving based on trio of sharp drills himself since LeRoy showing..

Most Likely: #3 Morning Line 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Kettle Corn 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Game On Dude 8-5 WON ($4.00)

9th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Attigirl Meadow 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Not Kidding Around 9-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Luckyvic 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Gypsy Friday 15-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #9 Palace of Wisdom 12-1 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8-10
7: 2-4-8
8: 1-3-4-5
9: 4-5

5x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 9th Winning Colors (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Margolis (#1 Good Deed) looks like only one that can stop Calhoun troika..

Most Likely: #3 Beat the Blues 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Good Deed 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Speedacious 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Gleaming 4-1 4th

7th: 24th Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Noble’s Promise (5-2) has to be bet against. Though he also has Warm Hugs in the Mint Julep, Nakatani came out for the ride on Rothko..

Most Likely: #1 Rothko 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #8 Cash Refund 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Will’s Wildcat 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Global Power 20-1 7th

8th: 36th Mint Julep (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tapitsfly will SCR in favor of next Saturday’s G1 Just a Game at Belmont. Be aware of a lack of pace in here. Hard Seven could grab control and keep going..

Most Likely: #8 Snow Top Mountain 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Ravi’s Song 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Hard Seven 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Warm Hugs 12-1 7th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Casino Dan 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mr. Ticket 9-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Tetradrachm 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Quiet Man 7-2 WON ($7.80)

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 That’s Me 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Bellazzeria 12-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Prime Maker 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Yankee Union 7-2 WON ($7.80)

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Very well-matched set..

Most Likely: #7 Tola 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Lindsey’s Song 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Harlan Showgirl 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Accent 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Galetoire 8-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-6-8
8: 5-6-8-9
9: 3-4
10: 7
11: 4-5-7-9

3x4x2x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-8-9
9: 3-4
10: 1-3-6-7
11: 4-5-7-9

4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

 

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD)

$28k P6 C/O starts here..

Nothing clever here with pair that have run and firsters from Ward and KMc being 4 that likely need carryover coverage..

Most Likely: #4 Bern Identity 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #7 Peeds in a Pod 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Simon Eyes 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Parnelli 7-2 4th

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Very modest group obviously, but Terranova fire sale 2nd timer is made 6-5 on drop from Kentucky MSW to New York bottom. I’m dubious.. SCRATCHED

Most Likely: #5 Jade Glory Again 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Scrap Dragon 5-1 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #1 There Goes Vinny 10-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Deep group and very tough to decipher. Nothing unusual in Goldberg’s 3-1 Sounds of the City or Hertler’s 5-1 Considerate, but you have a 12-1 price opp with the Contessa turf mover by City Zip (#7 Ballistic Sue) and decision to make about Toner’s 4-1 ‘vanned off’ returnee (#11 Sunlight Sonata) who bulleted (1/92!) when working for state vets’ OK..

Most Likely: #4 Sounds of the City 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Ballistic Sue 12-1 WON ($30.80)
Next Best: #8 Considerate 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Sunlight Sonata 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $127.00
$1 Trifecta (7-8-11) Paid $648.50
$1 Superfecta (7-8-11-4) Paid $2,573.00

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific event with very balanced field and favorite (#10 Yari) parked wide..

Most Likely: #6 Selection Sunday 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Vee One Rotate 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Yari 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #9 Declan 12-1 8th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Purely Majestic 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tapitude 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Hot Splash 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #2 Evan’s Rocket 8-1 5th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Yikes.. Making it here live assures you of nothing. 11 of them line up and at least 8 look possible for laurels..

Most Likely: #8 Wise Harmony 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #1 My Perfect Light 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Perfect Embrace 4-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Who Is Lady 8-1 8th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-7
5: 1-5-6
6: 4
7: 6-8
8: 4-6
9: 1-7-8

2x3x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-7-8-11
7: 6-8-10
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-7-8-9-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

 

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Love in the Rain 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Revere 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Quorum 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Sokitumi Samurai 2-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Island School 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 D’oro Princess 12-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Steal the Dance 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Peace Preserver 10-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Imagining 7-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #2 Change of Command 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fizzano 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 King Ting 6-1 6th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #3 Deverell 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Double Berg 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Sweetest Peach 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Ten Pin Tide 10-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-6-8
7: 3-5
8: 2-6
9: 3-4-6-7-10

5x2x2x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Regal Nurse 4-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #4 Networking 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Lady Durlyn 5-1 3rd

7th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 A Diehl 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Strike Impact 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Guys Reward 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #4 Furthest Land 4-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Stealcase 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Morgan’s Guerilla 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sark 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Agent Di Nozzo 4-1 4th

9th: MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Wallofsound 3-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Julmae 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Wine Glow 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Shesakitty 8-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 4-5
9: 3-4-6-7-8-9

1x4x2x6 = $48 ($24 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (1/2/7-1/2/7/9-5-6) Paid $45.20

 

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: Mt. Vernon-NY, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Gitchee Goomie (Defending champ) and Hessonite top this but if Risky Rachel takes to the turf, she’s a danger..

Most Likely: #3 Gitchee Goomie 9-5
Next Best: #6 Hessonite 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Risky Rachel 3-1
Super Add: #5 Rogue’s Jewel 6-1

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Dear Elizabeth 5-2
Next Best: #8 Readygetsgold 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Deflate the Bubble 4-1
Best Value: #1 House On Toilsome 15-1

7th: Kingston-NY, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Last two winners of this are signed on in Pocket Cowboys and Minnie Putt while imposing 3x 2011 state bred stake turf tiger Compliance Officer and G3 Hill Prince winner Street Game add to the intrigue. Good group..

Most Likely: #8 Compliance Officer 2-1
Best Value: #2 Pocket Cowboys 10-1
Next Best: #5 Street Game 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Lubash 6-1

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Bangzoomtothemoon 5-1
Best Value: #8 Lisini 10-1
Next Best: #3 Harpsichord 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Believe in Betty 3-1

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Would love to be clever in here but the top pair appear to have clear edge..

Most Likely: #5 Wholelottashakin 7-2
Next Best: #11 Inimitable Romanee 3-1
Best Value: #12 Aquifolia 12-1
Exotics Use: #9 Love Stanza Chance 8-1

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Very tricky finale with matched set of experienced runners and hatful of firsters..

Most Likely: #6 Paper Plane 5-2
Best Value: #11 Thescreenisred 9-2
Next Best: #2 Hermosura 5-1
Exotics Use: #9 Jitney 8-1
Super Add: #4 Leaping Lady 8-1

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-6
6: 2-6-8
7: 8
8: 8-10
9: 5
10: 2-6-9-11

3x3x1x2x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 3-8-10
9: 5-9-11-12
10: 2-6-9-11

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve