Poor decisions on a majority of the slate produced more underwhelming results on Day 3 of Saratoga Sunday as a series of mid-priced horses that I left off tickets stormed home. 2nd choice Paper Plane ($8.30) & Temper in Command ($8.60) and 3rd choices Rigby ($9.40), Hardrocker ($15.20) & Readbytheline ($9.70) all were viable but omitted for one reason or another to detrimental effect. Despite small victories in the last trio and a nice $20 place mutuel on 25-1 ‘Best Value’ Clever Spirit, the bankroll bruising of the meet’s first three days reached the four figure mark with the P6 try and P3/P4 misses piling up. Will try to right the ship on Monday’s solid card which offers a number of spots that could quickly make up for the weekend’s lost ground.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Heiko 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Bravo Habibi 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Decisive Move 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #4 Tightend Touchdown 5-1 4th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Carson Hall 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Safety Valve 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Liston 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Attractive Ride 10-1 3rd

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 High Cry 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Lady Rizzi 4-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #4 Paraiba 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Eden is Burning 3-1 2nd

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

SCR #7 Spring to the Sky who ran a great 3rd at 22-1 behind Summer Front in the Duluth here Sunday..

Most Likely: #5 Change of Command 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Majestic Raffy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Coexist 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Which Market 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Set the Sail 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-5 with 2-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 (2x3x4x3 = 720 x .10 = $7.20)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

First of its’ kind at the meet with 2yo’s, fillies here, going long on the grass. Some appropriate pedigrees involved but a good deal of mystery with 5 firsters; Broken Spell & Omnitap stretching out while first turf; Billboard Babe & Radiant Cut stretching out 2nd career start after 6f-T tries..

Best Value: #1 Broken Spell 15-1: Sneaky move; Dam minor grass stake winner.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Da Mi Basia Mille 6-1: Out of Cozzene mare; Clement 23% debut 1m+.. WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Citizen Emma 4-1: Half to Trombetta SW Cave’s Valley.. 2nd
Super Add: #10 Radiant Cut 12-1: Advantage of start; Half to 5x SW Mr. Gruff.. 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-7-8
3: 4-6-9
4: 2-5
5: 1-2-3-4-10

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Victory for V L T’s 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Party of Interest 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Life 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ginger Snapit 12-1 3rd

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Polan 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dark Roast 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Soul House 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Weekend Hideaway 8-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e West ownership entry 2-1 4th/5th
Next Best: #3 Invocation 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Yankee 9-5 6th
Super Add: #4 Flashy Sunrise 6-1 3rd

9th: 31st Evan Shipman-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Away since March, anything close to Lunar Victory’s best wins this..

Most Likely: #7 Lunar Victory 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Johannesburg Smile 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sailmate 4-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Vee’s Accolade 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Salt Water Cowboy 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Into the Fray 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Turnofthecat 12-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 7
10: 2-3-6-7

3x3x1x4 = $36 ($72 for $2; $18 for .50)

Poor decisions on a majority of the slate produced more underwhelming results on Day 3 of Saratoga Sunday as a series of mid-priced horses that I left off tickets stormed home. 2nd choice Paper Plane ($8.30) & Temper in Command ($8.60) and 3rd choices Rigby ($9.40), Hardrocker ($15.20) & Readbytheline ($9.70) all were viable but omitted for one reason or another to detrimental effect. Despite small victories in the last trio and a nice $20 place mutuel on 25-1 ‘Best Value’ Clever Spirit, the bankroll bruising of the meet’s first three days reached the four figure mark with the P6 try and P3/P4 misses piling up. Will try to right the ship on Monday’s solid card which offers a number of spots that could quickly make up for the weekend’s lost ground.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Heiko 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Bravo Habibi 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Decisive Move 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #4 Tightend Touchdown 5-1 4th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Carson Hall 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Safety Valve 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Liston 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Attractive Ride 10-1 3rd

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 High Cry 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Lady Rizzi 4-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #4 Paraiba 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Eden is Burning 3-1 2nd

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

SCR #7 Spring to the Sky who ran a great 3rd at 22-1 behind Summer Front in the Duluth here Sunday..

Most Likely: #5 Change of Command 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Majestic Raffy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Coexist 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Which Market 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Set the Sail 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-5 with 2-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 (2x3x4x3 = 720 x .10 = $7.20)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

First of its’ kind at the meet with 2yo’s, fillies here, going long on the grass. Some appropriate pedigrees involved but a good deal of mystery with 5 firsters; Broken Spell & Omnitap stretching out while first turf; Billboard Babe & Radiant Cut stretching out 2nd career start after 6f-T tries..

Best Value: #1 Broken Spell 15-1: Sneaky move; Dam minor grass stake winner.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Da Mi Basia Mille 6-1: Out of Cozzene mare; Clement 23% debut 1m+.. WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Citizen Emma 4-1: Half to Trombetta SW Cave’s Valley.. 2nd
Super Add: #10 Radiant Cut 12-1: Advantage of start; Half to 5x SW Mr. Gruff.. 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-7-8
3: 4-6-9
4: 2-5
5: 1-2-3-4-10

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Victory for V L T’s 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Party of Interest 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Life 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ginger Snapit 12-1 3rd

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Polan 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dark Roast 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Soul House 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Weekend Hideaway 8-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e West ownership entry 2-1 4th/5th
Next Best: #3 Invocation 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Yankee 9-5 6th
Super Add: #4 Flashy Sunrise 6-1 3rd

9th: 31st Evan Shipman-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Away since March, anything close to Lunar Victory’s best wins this..

Most Likely: #7 Lunar Victory 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Johannesburg Smile 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sailmate 4-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Vee’s Accolade 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Salt Water Cowboy 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Into the Fray 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Turnofthecat 12-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 7
10: 2-3-6-7

3x3x1x4 = $36 ($72 for $2; $18 for .50)

Second day of Spa season didn’t feel much different from first as it proved hard to get any solid momentum going. Winners like Fiddler’s Patriot ($7.90) were moderately priced when they came and Value ideas like Clear Pasaj ($8.80) were hard to enthusiastically bet at lower than anticipated mutuels. Questing went slightly underbet ($9.80) to boost a solid small field tri ($36.50) in the Oaks and Sam’s Buck ($11.20) actually was worth gravitating towards when he held steady at 9-2 off the original 7-2 ML.

Superfectas are a weak area of play for me but I suggested and hit a rare one on the obvious single/key merits of Little Al’s Lea in the 6th. The $9 punt returned just under $60 when Toner’s Candy Feat (24-1) juiced the quartet finishing 3rd. But $15 Spurious Precision (2nd), $27 Basalt (5th), $31 Image of Disco (7th), $16 Adios Nardo (8th) and $29 Cozy App ($29) were winners that weren’t anywhere on my radar screen and their success quashed the P4’s and P6 C/O tries dooming the day to the tune of several hundred. Hope you did OK. Double carryover of $280k into another tricky sequence Sunday and there is a $133k C/O at Del Mar to consider as well..

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Wedding in Soriano 6-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Vicki’s Dancer 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Victory Island 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tapitude 5-1 5th

.10 SUPER: 3-6 with 1-3-4-6-9 with 1-3-4-6-9 with ALL (2x4x3x6 = 144 x .10 = $14.40)

2nd: Duluth, 3yo, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Clement passed VA Derby with Summer Front so you best believe he will not lose here. Gold Megilliah at a big price may be worth a backup P4 or at least a saver bet..

Most Likely: #6 Summer Front 8-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Gold Megillah 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Spring to the Sky 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Star Channel 8-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Interesting set of $20k turf sprinters with either Ward entry potent and Little Nick on the drop the pricipals. Driven by Solar returns to lawn dashing after a claim by MTH head Dennis Drazin; Scary at a square number in the hands of Jason Servis who is 42% off the tag. Silver Timber hasn’t won in more than a year but continues to seek a level and likes this strip..

Most Likely: #1a New Believer 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Little Nick 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Driven by Solar 6-1 WON ($8.10)
Exotics Use: #7 Silver Timber 5-2 3rd

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 My Golden Opinion 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 He’s So Chic 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Hardshell 5-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Larry’s Vision 5-1 7th

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$280k P6 C/O starts here..

Hope to get away with just the top pair in first leg of P6 sequence that gets tougher as it goes..

Most Likely: #5 Rangey 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Current Design 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Br. Alexander 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Master of Markets 12-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 5-6
3: 1-5-7-8
4: 1-5-6-8
5: 5-9-11

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Palace 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Smokem’s Charm 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Readtheprospectus 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Commanding Officer 10-1 11th

7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

I love ‘Uncle Joe’ Lostritto and assistant Heliodoro Gustines (Forego’s regular jock), but it’s tough to ignore the trainer switch to Serpe on #7 Hey Little Girl. Improvement on recent efforts gets it done here. Clever Spirit keeps improving for Ubilo and at 12-1 is highly employable..

Most Likely: #7 Hey Little Girl 6-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Clever Spirit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Madame Johar 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Royal Suspicion 10-1 6th

8th:  NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Brutally tough group. I’d use 8 of the 12 if it could be managed affordably somehow..

Best Value: #4 Stray Bullet 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Mah Jong Madnes 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Reach for a Peach 4-1 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #10 Schillerette 12-1 2nd

9th: 98th Sanford (G2), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Like the Schuylerville Friday, a well-matched group of youngsters..

Most Likely: #3 Bern Identity 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Special Jo 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Rose Junction 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 John Gordon 12-1 5th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Tough end to skeins with the 3 ML faves parked wide (9-11-12) for trips on the inner. All assigned savvy pilots, but race seems kind of ripe for a skunk at the social..

Most Likely: #9 Gold Love 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Court of Dreams 8-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Wet One 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #14 High On Kitten 4-1 5th
Super Add:  #4 Sheerflakesofgold 10-1 2nd

<$250 P6 Play:

5: 5-11
6: 3-10
7: 7
8: 4-5-8
9: 3-5-6
10: 7-9-12

2x2x1x3x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7-9
8: 2-4-5-8-10
9: 3-5-6
10: 4-7-9-12-14

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Fun opening day at the Spa with a big crowd and the predictably festive atmosphere. Had a few mundane bingos but missed the best scores with Roy Lerman producing a $75 winner in Presumptive and $500-$700 P4’s missed when my 3 live nightcap runners ran 4th, 5th and 7th in the nightcap. $60k carryover for meet’s first Saturday!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

DRAW-INS FROM AE LIST

4th: 13 Jake’s Shake (20-1) Castro/Domino
5th: 16 Wistful Wildcat (20-1) Cohen/Parisella
8th: 14 Camp Topridge (20-1) Maragh/Brown
11th: 14 Face the Future (10-1) Rosario/Matz

1st: Willard Straight, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Doesn’t feel like a place where you need to get imaginative with the top 4  ML choices simply owning an edge on the other half of the field..

Most Likely: #4 Fiddler’s Patriot 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #1 Zero Rate Policy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Perfect Officer 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bridgetown 8-5 3rd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Hot West is out of the remarkable Xtra Heat; Smoke Town a half to Redeemed and by speedy, win-early sire Smoke Glacken; Well Layered a full brother of Baffert’s MGSW Drill; Show Some Magic just missed last time behind next out Bashford Manor winner Circle Unbroken..

Most Likely: #3 Hot West 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Smoke Town 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Show Some Magic 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Well Layered 7-2 3rd

3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Cinematize 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Wild Grace 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Clear Pasaj 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Bella Silver 8-1 7th

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Very curious assembly and a likely place for a quixotic result. Any combination of 4 out of the 12 could turn out, so don’t be afraid to fire away with your own nutty ideas..

Best Value: #2 Trainingforsuccess 10-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Sam’s Buck 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Mr Algebra 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Call Up the Chief 20-1 3rd

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Nonno’s Boy, when right, has races that beat these. But is he right? Worth it at 10-1 to find out..

Best Value: #4 Nonno’s Boy 10-1 9th
Next Best: #12 A Boy Named Em 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 How Do I Win 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Mandorla 10-1 12th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6-7
3: 6-8
4: 2-5-12
5: 4-8-11-12

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW,3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Lea has had time since big fig, just-missed debut and return to it beats these. Note that the pace scenario here is formless and a savvy jock may have opportunity to seize control up front..

Most Likely: #5 Lea 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Sir Sidney 8-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Night Site 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Late SCR

.10 SUPER: Key 5 with 3-4-11 with 1-2-3-4-7-9-11 with 1-2-3-4-7-9-11 (1x3x6x5 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

$0.10 Superfecta (5-11-9-1) Paid $59.35

7th: NY-ALW/N!X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 John Joe 5-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Roaring Conquest 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Parachute Coney 10-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Cientifico 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER: 6-11 with 6-11 with 1-2-9-12 with ALL (2x1x4x9 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Reserve Currency 8-5 4th
Best Value: #11 Colonel Bill 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Romantic Channel 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Standing O 8-1 5th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Salty set of borderline stakes horses..

Most Likely: #1 Bellamy Brew 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Battle Hardened 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Shrewd One 5-2 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Won Kool Aid 6-1 8th

10th: 96th CCA Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Head-scratching edition of this famed event. If this were a California P6 carryover, the big players would hit the ‘all’ button because even Yara — as endorsed by Ed DeRosa on ATR Weekend Preview — doesn’t look impossible..

Most Likely: #5 Zo Impressive 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Questing 3-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #4 Funny Proposition 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 In Lingerie 5-2 3rd

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f

Look.. Another Maiden Claimer to end the sequences! Inability to find To Dubai Friday cost the P4..

Most Likely: #6 Diamond d’Oro 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Mayakoba 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Holiday at Betty’s 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Our Pink Ribbon 10-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 5
7: 6-11
8: 2-11-13
9: 1-2-6
10: 1-4-5-6
11: 6

1x2x3x3x4x1 = 72 x .50 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-11-13
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 1-4-5-6
11: 1-3-6

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

What a week with Del Mar record-smashing opening Wednesday, the Spa stand leaving the gate today and superb stakes action throughout North America through Sunday. Saratoga will be especially contentious this summer given the bulbous purses and the large fields they’re drawing based on the first 3 cards that have been drawn. As always, it won’t take more than a couple of good ideas any afternoon to make your Toga play successful. Good luck these next 7 weeks. I hope many will get a chance to make a trip to ‘the foothills of the Adirondacks’ between now and Labor Day. It feels as if this is going to be a particularly great season.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Wild scramble to kick off the meet with at least 6 capable of winning. No need to be overly fearful of the 3-1 fave Salto or 7-2 co-second choice Yankee Fortune as they aren’t any better here than players like Followmyfootsteps (5-1) and Nine O Wonderful (12-1). Of the ML faves, Voodoo Storm (7-2), 4yo Storm Cat son of the outstanding Voodoo Dancer and exiting the G3 Poker, is the most appealing..

Most Likely: #9 Voodoo Storm 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Followmyfootsteps 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Salto 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Nine O Wonderful 12-1 WON ($28.20)

2nd: NY-MSW, F&M3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Again, a handful of horses appear interchangeable as win candidates (1-5-8-10-12) with little separating them..

Most Likely: #8 Bourbonology 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Alwaysinmycircle 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #10 Kibosh 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Mela Dramatically 5-1 8th

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

It’s a Filly Friday with 2 divisions of MSW action and the Schuylerville. As discussed on ATR Thursday, Ward (#2 Lignite, 3-1) and Pletcher (#3 Kimono, 5-2) will get the attention, but #8 Oscar Party (6-1) from Catalano and #5 Liberty Girl (5-1) from Harty and a half to Champagne d’Oro and Ruler On Ice, have pedigrees and work patterns that fit nicely..

Best Value: #8 Oscar Party 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Lignite 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Kimono 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Liberty Girl 5-1 6th

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

C. Brown poised for a big opening day with Bourbonology in the 2nd, Book Review here and Unaccountable in the 6th..

Most Likely: #6 Book Review 6-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #8 Ullapool 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Abide 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Soul of Hollywood 20-1 8th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

2nd division of filly babies with a couple more notable pedigrees involved here than in the 3rd. Kauai Kate and Distortion are out of stakes winning (“SW”) mares More Than Pretty and Misty Rosette respectively. Lenderofladstresort (Yes It’s True) is a half to speedy Pashito the Che (Flatter) while Ruby Lips (Hard Spun) is a half to 3X SW Like a Gem (Tactical Cat)..

Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Kauai Katie 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Lenderoflastresort 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Distortion 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-8-10-12
3: 2-3-5-8
4: 6
5: 1-2-3-5-6

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,13,14,15,16/2/6/1,6,9) Paid $25.75 x 2 = $51.50

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

#2 The Vin Man is going to SCR which draws #13 Versailles Road (9-5) in. This is some competitive set for $20k claimers ($40k pot) and gives you an indication of how contentious this Spa stand will be..

Most Likely: #13 Versailles Road 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Powhattan County 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Unaccountable 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Slambino 15-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 13 with 4-5-6-7-8-9 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12)

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

What a fun race with a wacky set of older maiden F&M’s on the inner turf. It feels like you want those that haven’t proven themselves utter ne’er do wells and Shug’s #3 Gloat is a half to Parading and 12-1..

Best Value: #3 Gloat 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cosmic Energy 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Colonial Empress 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Late SCR

8th: 5th James Marvin (G3), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

This stake went from overnight to graded in about 30 seconds. Defender Jackson Bend, 2/2 at Spa, always merits respect and admiration. And Caixa Electronica is no doorknob either..

Most Likely: #7 Jackson Bend 7-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Caixa Electronica 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Pacific Ocean 5-1 WON ($14.20)

9th: 94th Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

SCR feverish #6 Mr Hall’s Opus.

Baby J helped me along to a big day when acing her debut 6/28 and she was subsequently purchased by our Toy Cannon partner Paul Pompa and moved to Rick Dutrow. Will get pace pressure. Tony Dutrow sends Maggi Moss number So Many Ways who gets Javy and fist Lasix. Pletcher sends Can’t Explain, a NJ-bred by Not for Love that fetched $150k and improved 2nd out. McPeek’s Fully Living stalked Can’t Explain when breaking her maiden and that tact might be invaluable in this..

Most Likely: #2 Baby J 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 So Many Ways 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #4 Can’t Explain 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Fully Living 4-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

As mentioned in passing on ATR Thursday, does every sequence in the country have to end with a confusing maiden claiming event? Tom Voss has a real chance to bookend the card with Followmyfootsteps in the opener and Pyro City (8-1) live here..

Best Value: #9 Pyro City 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Rotheryn 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Momentum Investor 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Way of the West 10-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4-5
8: 1-5-7
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 8-9-11

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72