Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Strong SAR finish offsets disappointment at DMR

Thursday, August 16th, 2012

Long, wild day from NY to CA Wednesday with the Carryover Mania at Del Mar producing great interest and $2.5MM (P5) and $1.6MM (P6) jackpots. Not a lot of time to recap except to say that despite some good ideas, Muny in the 1st and Shrug in the featured 7th derailed the 5 & 6 tix. The unique situation made for great discussion and again demonstrated how motivated players are when opportunities are presented. Congrats to those who got the $474 and $16k paydays. Spa action was good too and though the chance to bookend the P4’s fell short, Quartarolo’s Mr. Algebra capped a nice finish to the afternoon featuring a $22.40 win tote and fat P3. Hope everyone enjoyed the big day and did well! Twin jumpers start Saratoga action ahead of 9 flat events including good West Point..

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Viristo 3-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #6 Duc de Savoie 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1a The Price of Love 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Alfarabi 15-1 8th

2nd:Walsh Novice, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wanganui 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 History Boy 5-2 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #1e Delozier entry 4-1 6th/9th
Super Add: #6 Cornhusker 6-1 4th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Show Some Magic 8-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Will Take Charge 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Lincoln Law 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Takajo 5-1 7th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smart Farda 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 Two of a Kind 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Macho Libre 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Four Reds 12-1 6th

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Fact 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Spinnaker Bay 20-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Superstrella 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Wagon Train 12-1 4th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Stoneless 5-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #2 Jerek Deter 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Heading Upstate 5-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Late SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

3: 3-4-5-6-8
4: 3-4-5
5: 2-5-8
6: 2-5-8

5x3x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/5/5/3,5,9) Paid $43.60

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lawless Miss 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Manda Bay 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Thunderous Lady 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #7 Rhonin Victoria 7-2 4th

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Dan and Shiela 7-2  WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #9 Vee’s Accolade 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 How Do I Win 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1a Photon 3-1 2nd

9th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Terrific betting affair. Endless price opps to feature, key or include depending on your interpretation..

Best Value: #5 Plainview 12-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #10 Wildcatter 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Scorcher 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Fourseventeen 5-1 7th

10th: 33rd West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Compliance Officer looks to defend his West Point title and a reprise would be a boost to the striggling barn of Bruce Brown..

Most Likely: #7 Compliance Officer 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Lubash 4-1 WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Street Game 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Majestic Raffy 20-1 4th

.10 SUPER: 7 with 1-2-5-7-8 with 1-2-5-7-8 with ALL (1x5x4x3 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #2 Kibosh 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #4 Hey Little Girl 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Crafting 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Late SCR (4:26pm)

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-9
9: 5-9-10
10: 5-7-8
11: 2-4-6-8/SCR

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2,4,7,10/5/5/2,8,11,12,13,14) Paid $169.00 x 2 = $338.00

 

Players focus on monster P5/P6 C/O’s at Del Mar

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCR’s have carved this race up..

Best Value: #2 Leading Citizen 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Stay Composed 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Debonair Dancer 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 City View 20-1 5th

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Favorite #5 Crypto Kitten can and very well may win, but she’s a money-burning stinkbird being given away. Protect in multis but do your utmost to bet against her within the race..

Best Value: #9 She Be Bunny 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Accent 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Billboard Hit 6-1 WON ($22.00)
Super Add: #10 Sweetest Peach 15-1 10th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rockin Boogie 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Wild Target 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Slash Five 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Demon’s Deputy 8-1 4th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Inquiring 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Thiry Minutes 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Lemon Sundae 8-1 4th

5th: 9th Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

As Andy Serling mentioned Tuesday, this should have a G3 next year based on the assembled cast..

Most Likely: #2 Regally Ready 7-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Bridgetown 9-5 WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #7 Perfect Officer 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Wekiva Wachee 15-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5-9-10
3: 2-5-6
4: 5-7
5: 2-3-7

5x3x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (3-5-7-3) $125.50

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Well-matched group. Super players should throw #2 Fastest Magician (20-1) in and everyone needs to be aware that #11 (AE) Bell by the Ridge (15-1) is an exotics player should he draw in (DOES GET IN)..

Best Value: #8 Pleasant Run 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Boots Ahead 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 War Hoot 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Freshman Dorm 6-1 2nd

.10 SUPER: Key 8 1st/2nd with 2-3-5-6-11 (1x5x4x3 [60] + 5x1x4x3 [60] = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

7th: NY-OC/C, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Nice Stuff 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Rizzi 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Eden is Burning 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #9 High Cry 12-1 8th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Parent’s Honor 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #6 Crepuscolo 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 American Legend 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Crown the Chief 4-1 5th

9th: OC/C, 3+, 5.5f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Big Grandpa 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Bravo Romeo 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Take Down Two 8-1 WON ($16.80)
Super Add: #6 Saint of Saints 5-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT

Happy to get a chance to finally get My Pal of Pals into a race after three miscues, but assignment is tough with number of front end parties signed on. Studart will have to try to stalk and go from up close for the City Zip colt to have laurel or board chance..

Best Value: #11 Mr. Algebra 8-1 WON ($22.40)
Most Likely: #6 Jim Jamm 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Lion Prince 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Tough All Day 15-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 6-7-8
9: 1-4-5-6-7-8
10: 1-5-6-11

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-T (.50 P5, P3, PL Pick All, DD)

$362k P5 C/O starts here..

Competitive, but get the feeling the top pair gets you through the P5 opener..

Most Likely: #1 Slammer Time 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Aqua Fever 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Why Not Be Perfect 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Deadly Catch 4-1 4th

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Early SCR of Strike Em’ Out leaves this more wide open then I’d have hoped. Miller firster #13 Frank n’ Teddy (5-1) gets in from the outside and may be clever in here with comebacker Racy Rosa getting OK marks for her return. Deep tix will have coverage of career maiden Silver Luna and hot drilling FTS Oscillator while Tina’s Express, One Lucky Lady and Country Soul look like the “C” players for big budgets..

Best Value: #13 Frank n’ Teddy 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Racy Rosa 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Silver Luna 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Oscillator 5-1 WON ($11.40)

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Middle leg of the P5 and Opener of the P6. One peril of playing the Cali carry sequences is going against up against the syndicates that ‘buy’ races like this. If you’re trying to get through on the cheap, Baffert regularly the right guy to single. As I told Privman Tuesday, Hoorayforhollywood dam Hollywood Story one of my favorite fillies..

Most Likely: #1 Hoorayforhollywood 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #6 Great Warrior 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 McKenzie’s Way 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 El Gato Malo 3-1 3rd

4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Top 3 should get you through though stretchout, lawn move and addition of Gomez makes Cinco de Mario interesting as well. Money Makin Sam, Aerial Artist and Buckleberry Grey may make their way on to big plays..

Most Likely: #3 Power Broker 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Lawyer Gabe 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Shining Copper 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Cinco de Mario 8-1 4th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Again, a place where the big outfits will buy the field. Top 3 for me in both sequences and can’t fault those on shoestring that take Priv’s advice and single My Gal Candy..

Most Likely: #4 Inner Groove 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Dilly’s Dancer 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Demure Halo 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Around the Twig 12-1 3rd

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-7
2: 2-8-11-13
3: 1-3-4-6
4: 2-3-4
5: 4

2x4x4x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: Cal-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Day’s toughest group with 6 necessary (1-2-6-7-8-9) for survival with 2nd time starters (7-8-9) the focus..

Best Value: #7 Royal Capote 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 La Juliana 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #9 We Be Good 6-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Warren’s Today 3-1 3rd

7th: Green Flash H., 3+, 5f-T (DD)

What a nice little stake. Lakerville seeks 3rd score of the stand for Barry Abrams & GoGo. Koast looks like he’s best sprinting after OK Oceanside. Shrug & Sirocco Strike appear poised for real upset chances. Top 2 for P6, next 2 for back-ups and P4/P3’s..

Most Likely: #7 Koast 9-5 4th
Next Best: #5 Lakerville 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Shrug 5-1 WON ($21.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Sirocco Strike 6-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

No picnic ending the P6/P4. Ever Alert a first time gelding per Privman..

Most Likely: #6 Our Merv 6-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Sedona Ridge 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Ever Alert 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Givimaway 3-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5 Play: #11 Everlasting Man 15-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 1
4: 2-3-4
5: 4
6: 7-8-9
7: 5-7
8: 3-6-7-8

1x3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-5
6: 1-2-7-8-9
7: 5-7
8: 3-4-6-7-8-9-11

2x5x2x7 = 140 x .50 = $70

 

Intriguing Monday slate after Sunday speedfest

Monday, August 13th, 2012


Weird Sunday at the Spa with a big speed track through the first 6 races on the card before a strong sequence in races 7-11. The 90+ minutes between the 6th and 9th — when the slate’s 2 turf events were run — gave Glen Kozak and his team a chance to fluff the main strip that had been hard-packed for 2 days of rain into Sunday and the 9th-11th provided more even terms for runners. An enormous crowd turned out for the picnic blanket giveaway and seemed to have a great time. I had less of a great time seeing momentum quashed repeatedly and a loss of $300+ resulted despite some P3 and triple hits. I was particularly clobbered by the rough voyage and bad behavior of Heart of Destiny in the 8th when plunging heavily on her nose and through her in exotics. Under a consistently shaky Edgar Prado and shuffled back when the serious running started, she appeared poised for a surge to the front midstretch when she attempted to lug in midstretch. By the time Prado got her straightened out, there was nothing left but a non-threatening placement behind the top pair. Next time, as she may try the Riskaverse at the end of the month. Hope everyone did OK. Good Monday card.
SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Police Chatter 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Buckeye Heart 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #5 Basalt 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 A Boy Named Em 6-1 2nd

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 La Java 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Grand Lely Drive 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Riptherubberoff 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Jerusalem Stone 8-1 5th

3rd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Odd assembly..

Most Likely: #3 Saxaphone Len 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #6 Good Karma 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Roaring Conquest 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Good Law 6-1 4th

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Hooligan’s Delight 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Next Question 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Petey Cramer 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Synthesizer 12-1 WON ($40.80)

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Good race. Figure Ramon can work a trip from the #10 with King David. Couple of prices to play with after that..

Most Likely: #10 King David 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Knock Rock 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Manx 15-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Adios Nardo 3-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7
3: 1-2-3-4-5-6
4: 1-4-5
5: 4-5-7-10

1x6x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Primal Baby 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #5 Roman Renegade 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 No Three Words 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Coast of Sangria 12-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Jonata 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Dancing for Glory 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Coconut Shrimp 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #1 Tie Dye 12-1 8th

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 16f (P3, DD)

Not a lot of trends to look for in 2 mile races. In case you’re wondering, the track record is 3:26.0 held by James Boswell from 8/11/83..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Ea 3-1 WON ($4.70)/3rd
Best Value: #4 Tap Attack 20-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Next Best: #3 Sensor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sumo 7-2 DNF

9th: 1st Coronation Cup, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sensible Lady 3-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #7 Spun Cap 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Cat 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Quick Flip 15-1 8th

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT

Best Value: #10 Vee One Rotate 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Space Race 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Magical Season 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Late Starter 6-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 2-4-7
10: 6-8-10

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Muddy Saturday produces $97k C/O for Sunny Sunday

Sunday, August 12th, 2012

Saturday card at the Spa was another messy slate with a heavy downpour after the opener ending any hope for something close to normal conditions. As opposed to Friday when adjustments paid off handsomely, this day had its’ moments but wasn’t nearly as productive. After some minor success stringing winners together early, I whiffed completely on Benzel’s Newton Crescent in the 5th and Kenneally’s Majestic Hussar in the 6th and needed to start fresh from the 7th.

Noticing the curious presence of ‘Super Add’ P J’s Magical Wink in the 8th ended up a key to the afternoon and when the 15-1 ML invader was 7-1 in the bulky field, you could sense that mojo was in play. I hit a nice win bob with the $21.20 runaway and was excited at the prospect of him starting the P4. Unfortunately, I left Shankapotamus off the quad play and the afternoon fizzled.

We did see a tremendous performance from Wise Dan in the feature as Charlie Lopresti righted the ship after a bit of a barn lull. Biding his time with an inside stalking trip, Wise Dan was never asked by Johnny Velazquez and simply ran away from Corporate Jungle when given his cue. It’s hard to believe Morton Fink’s exceedingly versatile Wiseman’s Ferry 5yo won’t be a top choice in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.. Or the Dirt Mile.. Or the Turf Sprint down the hill.. Or the Classic. LOL. He’s that versatile.

Second half of the meet starts today and after the middling start, I’ve seen that bankroll steadily get back into line. Kick off the day down about $300, but feeling very comfortable with the topsy-turvy nature of the daily action. Let’s gear up for a big 3+ weeks to Labor Day! $97k carryover with the 2 turf races in the sequence still on the turf. Races 1-2-3-4 are off the yielding sod.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

RACES 1-2-3-4 OFF TURF; RACES 7-8 REMAIN ON

1st: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Palace 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #14 Charging Order 5-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Fair Trade 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Notesfromabroad 5-2 4th

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #16 Melissa Song 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Difficult Creek 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 My Sparky 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #15 Knight of Thunder 5-1 2nd

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Dream Pegasus 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Truly Devoted 10-1 Eased
Next Best: #3 Cindy’s Joy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kittylicious 15-1 7th

4th: CLM, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Quick Recovery 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Imperial Robyn 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Red Jack 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Political Justice 12-1 WON ($8.40)

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Game Token 3-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Readbytheline 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 B Shanny 5-2 WON ($$4.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Half Nelson 8-1 6th

.10 SUPER: Key 5 in 1st/2nd with 1-2-6-7-11 (1x5x4x3 [60] + 5x1x4x3 [60] =  120 x .10 = $12.00

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-8-16
3: 3-6-8-12
4: 3-4-7-10
5: 1-5-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$97k C/O starts here..

Derby Eve a full sister of Colonel John and Beat the Drums (Smart Strike) SCR is out of the wonderful Storm Flag Flying. But Seasoned Warrior is the one exiting her BEL debut behind Baby J. Single to start your P6..

Most Likely: #8 Seasoned Warrior 8-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #3 Distortion 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Toasting 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Bliss 5-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

As straightforward as the 6th feels, this group has as a lot of mystery to it. Turf moves. Stretchouts. Firsters. And an Arky bred! (Minnie Bear). Chad Brown’s Atlantic Dream a full to MGSW Icy Atlantic..

Best Value: #9 Minnie Bear 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Atlantic Dream 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Alluring Lady 10-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Oscar Party 12-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Heart of Destiny 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Off Limits 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Tapit Dancer 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #11 All for Georgia 20-1 7th

.10 SUPER: 2-6 with 1-2-6-9-10-11 with 1-2-6-9-10-11 with 1-2-6-9-10-11 (2x5x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Meghan’s Fury, Appealetta & Lumberjane all make the big El Droppo from NY-MSW to NY-$20k. Have to figure at least one of them takes the wake up call. Anchovy, Fruttidimare & Stone Maker are knocking on this door a second time. Quagmire race and note there is an apparent lack of speed. If you believe Anchovy — or possibly Sheila’s Gold — grabs the point, you may have a merry chase on your hands because nothing is more dangerous than lone speed going 7/8ths. Andy Serling taught me that 15 years ago..

Most Likely: #1 Anchovy 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Outlaw Cody Z 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Appealetta 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Shiela’s Gold 20-1 7th

10th: 96th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Narrow P6 tix will have to live with Kauai Katie..

Most Likely: #3 Kauai Katie 2-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #6 Salamera 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Vitamera 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Fully Living 12-1 3rd

11th: 107th Sratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f

Woodbine shipper Dan the Tin Man, a Songandaprayer son, could explode first dirt..

Favorite Shanghai Bobby a surprise SCR..

Best Value: #5 Dan the Tin Man 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Spurious Precision 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #1 In Harm’s Way 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Drum Roll 5-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 8
7: 3-4-5-6-9-10
8: 2-6
9: 1-8-11-12
10: 3
11: 3-5

1x6x2x4x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-6-9-10-11
9: 1-2-6-8-11-12
10: 3
11: 1-3-5-7

6x6x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (9-2-1/3-3/6) 4 Correct Paid: $41.35

 

Messy day on track yields rainbow, pot o’ gold

Saturday, August 11th, 2012

Hard to believe a sloppy/off turf day could turn into one of the better afternoons of the meet so far, but that’s what transpired Friday. I patiently waited out the onslaught of changes after the decision was made to abandon the grass runs and other than missing one of the singles in the P6, everything fell into place for a series of bankroll enhancements. One element of the good afternoon was several horses fell into needed money slots after watching similar punts fall a notch shy the last few days. In the early P4, Haldane was the best price option available in the 3rd leg, and came through at 7-1 to boost the payoff to $152. Morrison FTS Ampa’s Girl (11-1) was corraled by a neck in the 6th but still spurred a $172 trifecta and $715 Super. In the thrilling Hall of Fame, $23.80 Quick Wit was the best price of the tabs and charged all the exotics that including a $101 tri, $278 P4 hit and late P3’s that totaled $264. Amazing what can happen when the horses win photos or simply run where you need them to.

The deadly tactical error came in the P6 try and while the consolation of $324 was OK, I’d sure like to have the single of Mela Dramatically back. As Andy Serling stressed pre-race, Royal Suspicion was the most logical off-track player in the overly grass-oriented group and her 4-1 status as fourth choice was another example of the public having trouble re-evaluating the casts when races move to the main. Still, paired with Wednesday’s outcomes at Del Mar, Friday’s returns helped bring the summer coffers back towards the right side of the ledger and on good timing with the meets reaching the hair halfway point. Hope everyone did well. Waiting for turf decisions this morning. Expect one race on each course, the ALW 10th and the stake 11th. Main track will start out muddy.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 La Billos 2nd
Next Best: #10 Private Councel WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Skips Prospect 5th
Super Add: #3 Audington 3rd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Indy’s Illusion 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #13 Transparent 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 SCR
Super Add: #9 Bernie the Jet 6-1 WON ($11.00)

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bayshore Blaze 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Centrique 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Theatre Queen 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Paws Up 12-1 5th

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Drivenbychocolate 2-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Read the Proposal 5-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Sunlover 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Flattermewithroses 20-1 7th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Ali’s Winner 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Reggie D 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Geantor 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Pure Nature 4-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-12-13
3: 1-2-4-7-8
4: 1-8
5: 1-2-3-6

3x5x2x4 =120 x .50 = $60

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Overwhelming 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Rugged 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Hotter N Blazes 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Casino Day 15-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #15 Nick Rules 7-2 5th
Best Value: #13 Dylan Dangerous 8-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Grand Contender 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 To Dubai 3-1 WON ($9.40)

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Speight Me 12-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Marine 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Distinct Humor 9-2 10th
Super Add: #11 P J’s Magical Wink 15-1 WON ($21.20)

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Overcommunication 8-5 4th
Next Best: #8 Bomber Boy 9-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Shankopotamus 8-1 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #1 Same Old Wish 6-1 7th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #16 Hoist 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #13 Thunder Chief 6-1 5th
Next Best: #15 Majestic Hope 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Irish Lion 20-1 4th

11th: 28th Fourstardave H. (G2), 3+, 1m-IT

Best Value: #7 Corporate Jungle 6-1 2nd
Next Best: 4 Guys Reward 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Get Stormy 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Wise Dan 5-2 WON ($5.00)

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-8-9-11-12-13
9: 4-8
10: 2-4-6-13-14-15-16
11: 7

7x2x7x1 = 98 x .50 = $49