SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Serious set to start the afternoon and if you’re unconvinced about Senior Pride stretching back out to a 9th panel, then it gets pretty open..

Best Value: #2 Most Happy Fella 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Seniors Pride 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Bellamy Brew 5-1 WON ($9.30)
Super Add: #1 Grandpa Len 8-1 5th

2nd: MSW, 32yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Bit of a non-decript group of baby girls..

Most Likely: #7 Liquid Lunch 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Cue the Moon 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #5 Lucky Friend 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Madgi 4-1 3rd

3rd: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Remember that these state bred $20k maiden events have produced notoriously quixotic results..

Best Value: #2 Cameron Canyon 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Charging Order 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 U Whippersnapper 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Keyaly 15-1 3rd

4th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Espiritu Libre is a half brother to Dale Bennett’s rock solid grass performer Bizzee Mizzee and that may be enough of an indication that he takes to the lawn to gain an endorsement against a modest group..

Best Value: #2 Espiritu Libre 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Native Wave 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Fort Boonesborough 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Barrymore 4-1 5th

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 My Sweet Candy 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #3 Lady Lizzy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Dorothy’s Spirit 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Still Shea to Me 15-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-5-7
3: 2-6-7
4: 2-3-4
5: 2-3-7-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Ausable Chasm gets to run in here and she’s badly up against it versus a number of class droppers, but if 54-1 Greeley’s Law can win one of these as he did Saturday, I guess anything is possible..

Most Likely: #7 Tanglewood Tale 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 World Premier 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #13 Donnatale 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Annelle 10-1 10th

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Really well-matched group..

Most Likely: #1 Shakeira 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Inaugurate 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Steal the Dance 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Sheza Heartbreaker 15-1 8th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another super competitive group..

Most Likely: #2 Temper in Command 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #7 Strike Accord 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Manero 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Yellow Tail 6-1 9th

9th: 105th Saranac (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

I’ve been an Excaper fan since last summer and Ian Black’s invasion here signals belief the BCJ-T runner up to Wrote is ready for a good effort. Emma Jayne can stalk the pace and get first run on the closers..

Best Value: #5 Excaper 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Lucky Chappy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Quick Wit 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Set the Sail 10-1 6th

10th: 121st Spinaway (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (DD)

Nice group of 2yo fillies here. Mott and Live Oak look to take G1’s on consecutive days with Seasoned Warrior after To Honor and Serve’s thrilling Woodward win Saturday but will have to upend favored Stonestreet entry to do so. Teen Pauline (Asmussen) is certain for Barbara Banke, but awaiting word on the status of the other runner, Dreaming of Julia (Pletcher) SCRATCHED..

Most Likely: #1 Teen Pauline 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Seasoned Warrior 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 So Many Ways 3-1 WON ($9.80)

11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #6 Catalina Island 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Simple Exchange 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Market Princess 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Monticello Doll 20-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5-7
9: 1-5-6-8
10: 1-3-6
11: 2-6-12

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: Torrey Pines, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Love me that Potesta. Will be challenged by Killer Graces though..

Most Likely: #1 Potesta 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #8 Killer Graces 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Starlight Magic 6-1 3rd
Super Add; #7 Warren’s Amber 12-1 8th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$182k P6 C/O starts here..

Brutally tough assignment to begin sequence with all firsters save Proctor’s Procurement. Strong sire or trainer stats for the 1-2-3-8 and positive worktab notes on 6-7-9. Bro Derek is a half to Mark Valeski but Brother Derek is still looking for his first winner overall, let alone a FTS winner..

Most Likely: #7 P Three D 6-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Goldencents 8-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #10 Procurement 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Uno Dos Adios 3-1 5th

7th: Adoration-R, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Graser 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Miss Mittagong 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Rock and Glory 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Briecat 3-1 6th

8th:MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Quirky assembly including Baffert FTS Vixen, a half to Brass Hat! Also on a sibling note, Scarlet Strike — half to Visionaire — comes back in here too..

Best Value: #8 Catrageous 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Vixen 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Sheaparoux 3-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Spellbound 12-1 6th

9th: Del Mar Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)

No real stars, just solid, well matched talent. Graham Motion could salvage what has been a lost summer with a win from Howe Great..

Most Likely: #9 Smart Ellis 6-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Tones 15-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Brother Francis 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Midnight Crooner 5-1 9th

10th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Non breathers at all in this sextet..

Most Likely: #6 Megastar 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #12 Dreamcatcher 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Northern Iowa 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Hyades 15-1 12th

11th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

$47k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

And an impossible group to separate to close out the card!

Most Likely: #2 Three Blondes 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Maurie’s Tizzy 10-1
Next Best: #5 Miss Well Molded 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Northern Flight 10-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Vonn Nez 15-1 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-2-7-10
7: 4
8: 2-8-9
9: 1-9
10: 4-6-12
11: 2

4x1x3x2x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8-9
9: 1-3-7-9
10: 4-6-8-12
11: 2-5-8

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

With Zultanite running in the Riskaverse Friday, Fawkes can run Glamour N Glory in here. Out of curiousity, what did Margolis do wrong to have Inny Minnie boosted out from under him?

Best Value: #10 Off Limits 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Glamour N Glory 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Island School 4-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Inny Minnie 3-1 5th

2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Winter Now 2-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Knock Rock 8-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Atitlan 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Sam’s Buck 12-1 WON ($22.00)

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Starforaday 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Flying Pegasus 5-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Overextended 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 King Rock 6-1 4th

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

What a good race this is. Many here capable and it will all come down to trip. I’m taking some price swings..

Best Value: #4 Flower Mart 10-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Divine Luck 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Lily the Pink 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #9 Evening Garden 30-1 4th

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Sam Sparkle 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hillswick 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #1a Isthmus 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Be Bullish 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-7
3: 2-7-8-10
4: 1-2-3-4-9-12
5: 1-3-8

2x4x6x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 A Boy Named Em 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #13 Devoted Wildcat 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #3 Bay Park Boy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 P J’s Magical Wink 10-1 9th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$55k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Gulfport 5-2: Healthy now & likely ready.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Apex 2-1: Mott 2nd timer came out running.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Pass the Pico 6-1: Solid tries; Added distance helps.. 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Micromanage 6-1: Pletcher-Repole firster likely OK.. WON ($13.60)

8th: 54th Bernard Baruch (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Nicely matched group for this former Travers Day standard. Leparoux will likely have every opportunity to lull them to sleep on the front end with Dominus who is bred more than OK for the lawn..

Most Likely: #1 Data Link 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Guys Reward 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Queen’splatekitten 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Sky Blazer 6-1 3rd

9th: 33rd Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Shackleford’s current viability being questioned from many respectable quarters with monster Met Mile the logical culprit. Four year olds have won 7 of the last 8 runnings of this event (Pomeroy a 5yo in ’06). Typical Beyer fig for laurels has been 104-107 with Midnight Lute’s outlandish 124 the outlier in ’07. Emcee is the one most capable of filling out the Forego profile..

Most Likely: #6 Emcee 9-2 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #1 Jersey Town 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Jackson Bend 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Pacific Ocean 4-1 5th

10th: 59th Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

This comes down to Mucho Macho Man v. To Honor and Serve with Cease the price that has upside. But after the Ritvo and Mott players, Stall’s colt will need to improve 2-3 lengths to win. Stay Thirsty would normally be an ideal candidate for success here but he has not progressed a step from his best 3yo form. Stablemate Rule is a gate filler versus the better ones at this level and point in his career, while Gourmet Dinner and Trickmeister aren’t close..

Most Likely: #3 Mucho Macho Man 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 To Honor and Serve 2-1 WON ($9.30)
Best Value: #7 Cease 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Stay Thirsty 5-1 5th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Next Question 3-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Rudy Rudy Rudy 10-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Neatie the Cat 7-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #11 Western Tryst 6-1 2nd

12th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #5 Bunhead 6-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Katie Malone 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Madame Johar 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mela Dramatically 5-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

7: 2-7
8: 1-3-4-5-6
9: 6
10: 3-6
11: 7-12
12: 5-10

2x5x1x2x2x2 = 80 X $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-6
10: 3-6-7
11: 7-10-11-12
12: 3-5-6-8-9-10

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Interest in Steeplechase has justified itself already this season, but Thursday’s opener gave new meaning to jumping out to a good start. As discussed with NSA chief Bill Gallo Thursday, the optional claiming opener was wide open and noting that Todd Wyatt’s You the Man was very plausible off the 2 year break paid off when he came through at 15-1 ($31) and keyed big exotics. I limited myself to a $1 exacta box of the tabs for a nice $189 bingo, but the tri came back $1,518 ($1) with pacesetter Brave Prospect (12-1) and favorite Rainiero (3-1). Several happy players visited the Barbecue that benefitted from the hopper talk including the wife of a player who said her husband was too shy to visit. Thought I was on my way to a big ‘chase double in the Mrs. Jeffords, but Jon Sheppard’s Cubist came on late to quash the punt and I ran 2-3-4 behind his homebred mare. Still, the Steeplechase season comes to an end with a couple of good scores.

Heralded Archwarrior made his debut to kick off the flat portion of the day and his win was professional if not flashy. He is a blocky, imposing colt that quickly reminds you of the most recent star son of Arch, Blame. Six furlongs and precosity should not have been expected as hallmarks of this horse and yet he efficiently broke his maiden for Todd Pletcher and Alto Racing. He should be better and better as the distances increase and as he matures. The rest of the day marched along unspectacularly ahead of the 2 good stake races which saw popular Phil Gleaves win the Equalize with the ‘other’ horse in his entry (Miami Cat) and Chad Brown score in the With Anticipation with AE draw-in Balance the Books. Had Miami Cat run by himself, he would have been 30-1 or more. Entrymate Csaba proved that the main track will be his home moving forward.

The carryover sequence finished with a Contessa-Montalvo win which guaranteed my own nightcap whiff. A successful negotiation of the sextet returned $49,288. Hope everyone did well. Twilight card at the Spa as the closing weekend arrives and a double carryover at Del Mar ($432k) is sure to exceed $2,000,000.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a My Happy Face 8-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #7 Mrs. Bean 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dixie Smile 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Blazing Whip 6-1 4th

2nd: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Challenging start to early quad and a fun betting affair as a stand alone..

Best Value: #7 Thomas Hill 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Cantonic 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Hobbs 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Situational Ethics 6-1 4th

3rd: Big Bambu, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Quirky little stake with a lot going on for a 7 horse field..

Most Likely: #4 Mildly Offensive 5-2: Jousts Turbulent Descent in morning.. WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #6 Kid Kate 3-1: Just 4/4-0-0 over this strip.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Dancinginherfreams 6-1: Turf routing expirement over.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tiz the Argument 3-1: Dutrow clicks 35% with turnbacks.. 5th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Double Tapped 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Sensationalize 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Smittenwithkitten 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Ear D’ Rhythm 15-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Incredibly competitive group including 4 coming back ‘first off claim’..

Best Value: #8 Irish Lion 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Yankee Fourtune 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Red Leader 12-1 8th
Super Add: #1 King Ting 3-1 WON ($7.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7-8
3: 2-3-4-5-6-7
4: 7-8
5: 1-5-8-9

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Goodtolook 2-1: Benefit of start under belt.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 Noosh’s Tale 6-1: Half to Yield Bogey.. 8th
Next Best: #5 Pie’s First Lady 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Everydoghashisday 9-5 4th

7th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Joking 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Invocation 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Tiz Yankee 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Cape Glory 7-2 2nd

8th: 4th Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD)

Best Value: #4 Peace Preserver 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Dayatthespa 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #11 Zultanite 10-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Heart of Destiny 15-1 6th

9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Partly Mocha 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Beer is Good 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Bravo Habibi 5-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Into the Fray 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-10
7: 4-5
8: 1-4-5-9-11
9: 1-5-9-10

4x2x5x4 = 160 x .50

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: Cal-MDN CLM,

Most Likely: #4 Tiz a Daisy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Salty Forecast 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Rich in Tradition 5-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Party in Excess 12-1 4th

3rd: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Madeoftherightstuf 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Love That Action 8-1 WON ($27.60)
Next Best: #7 Mr. Ornery 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Fire in the Wind 15-1 7th

4th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sharp Bella 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Amy’s Cashin In 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Swiss Bliss 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Tribal Rain 8-1 5th

5th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bella Viaggia 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #10 Twelve Folds 10-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Oscillator 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Mary Contrary 6-1 8th

6th: 39th El Cajon, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Fed Biz 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Jimmy Creed 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Shaun Washington 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Unusual Heatwave 5-2 3rd

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

$85k Super Hi-5 carryover here..

Most Likely: #2 Money Talker 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Big Bane Theory 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Hometown Hero 3-1 10th
Best Value: #9 American Tanker 8-1 WON ($24.40)
Super Add: #6 Warrior Ridge 9-2 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

2: 1-4
3: 8
4: 4-5-8
5: 9-10
6: 2-6
7: 1-2-4

2x1x3x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 4-5-6-8
5: 2-9-10
6: 2-3-6
7: 1-2-4-9

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4-9-1/2-9) $185.20

Got closing week off to a sublime start Wednesday marching through much of the good Wednesday slate successfully. The upset of Thane in the opener worked out fine given Norumbega’s $17.40 win tote and the facile $87 P3 it commenced. The DQ of Brazilian Court (6-1) in the 2nd was justified and though it took a few dollars out of the equations with Scofield (9-2) receiving the judgement, it wasn’t a hardship or miscarriage of justice. Hitting the ‘all’ for the 4th race in the P4 paid off when longest price Hearts of Red ($25.60) was victorious for Ralph Nicks and the $1 increment proved out after Fredricksburg’s ‘much the best’ 5th race effort capped the $388 early quad.

Swift Warrior continued a nice string of P3 hits as well in the 6th, but the gravy train derailed in the 7th when Sheppard first Hedonemewrongsong prevailed in a MSW that produced outlandish exotics including a $227 exacta, $4,843 triple and $48,480 super. In the 10th, ‘one more chance’ Harty miss She Be Bunny (12-1) ran gamely on the front end before settling for 2nd under clever Andy Serling tab Corinzia (11-1). I bet She Be Bunny to win ($20) and backwheeled her with the field ($20) and the $551 exacta closed out the highly productive afternoon and demonstrated again that the margin for success in this meet has repeatedly been razor thin. Hope everyone did well. A $73k carryover on a tough sequence today at the Spa and if inclined, a $93k C/O at old Del Mar..

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Memorial Maniac 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Rainiero 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Brave Prospect 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 You the Man 15-1 WON ($31.00)

2nd: Mrs. Walter Jeffords, F&M-4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cat Feathers 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Well Fashioned 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Cordillera 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Maya Charli 5-1 6th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

One of the more anticipated debuts in recent memory comes here from uber-buzz baby Archwarrior, the $375k OBS training sale buy from Pletcher and Alto Racing that has had binoculor set talking all summer. Could not draw in to several fields throughout the meet and doesn’t appear to be meeting too many other heralded youngsters in here. By Arch out of the productive Seeking the Gold mare Winner’s Edge, Archwarrior doesn’t necessarily look on pedigree as an automatic slam dunk at 6f. Half brother Capac — namesake of the tragically murdered horseman — was a very nice Deputy Minister that was best going two turns, but still expect Pletcher has this one ready to roll today..

Most Likely: #3 Archwarrior 4-5 WON ($2.50)
Next Best: #6 Transparent 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Malachite 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1e Klaravich entry 7-2 3rd/6th

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Royal Rhiannon 5-1 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #5 Glorious View 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Free as a Bird 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Run for Riches 15-1 7th

5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sounds of the City 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #5 Lady Rizzi 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Giant Sleep 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Margaret Lillian 8-1 7th

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$73k P6 C/O starts here..

Violette (#4 High Inflation) 0/10 since ’07 dropping MSW to MCL for 2nd career start. Proviso here may be Klaravich/Lawrence gunning for owner’s title; #9 (AE) Chifa interesting should she draw in DOES GET IN..

Best Value: #6 Aqualinda 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Make Me a Prophet 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Chifa 9-2 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #1 Iratinelexburance 6-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

3: 3
4: 1-2-3-5-6
5: 1-3-5
6: 1-4-5-6-7-9

1x5x4x6 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (3-2-3/4/6/11/12-9) $36.00

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Very tough set. 9 of the 12 look like they could win this..

Best Value: #12 Change of Command 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Quantity 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Lea 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #10 News Pending 6-1 9th

8th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Live Life Fast 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Discreet Marq 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #1 Ascended Fever 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Accomplish First 4-1 4th

9th: Equalize, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Csaba 3-1 9th/Entrymate WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #8 Finale 5-2 10th
Best Value: #6 Film Shot 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Sardonic Joe 8-1 4th

10th: 8th With Anticipation (G2), 2yo, 8.5f-T (DD)

Looks like there is no shortage of pace in here with several stretching out and that makes it hard to deny viability of fave Charming Kitten who will be coming with a run..

Most Likely: #6 Charming Kitten 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 He’s So Fine 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Joha 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Hightail 15-1 6th

11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #2 What’smineismine 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Crypto Kitten 5-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Carpi Clements 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Shahalie Slammer 15-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4-5-6
7: 2-6-12
8: 3-7
9: 1-8
10: 6
11: 2-8

3x3x2x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-6-7
9: 1-8
10: 2-6-7
11: 2-7-8-11

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

As mentioned Tuesday on ATR, was annoyed at myself for not taking a pass on Monday when unprepared for the action, but the Saratoga slates and the added lure of a carryover is kind of irresistible. But in doing so after the busy, intense weekend, I missed an obvious horse in the Tony Dutrow winner of the 5th (O’ Frederica) and generally made other sloppy decisions wasting some of Sunday’s gains. Lesson learned is that you shouldn’t play just to play. Moving forward, if I don’t post selections during a period like Saratoga, it will be because I wasn’t able to adequately prepare and it would be a disservice to anyone that uses my opinion as a guide.

We have a great card to kick off the final week of the meet Wednesday and let’s finish this tricky season with a flourish!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

2yo’s going 9 panels always interesting. KMc’s stats on this bode well for Thane obviously, but there are 3 here that went 8.5f turfy furlongs already and that provides plenty of bottom for this endeavor..

Most Likely: #5 Thane 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Norumbega 5-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #3 Western Sadler 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Boogie Too 6-1 6th

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting $65k 2yo set with Smoke Town (Half to Redeemed), Brazilian Court (Half to Devoted Wildcat) notable on pedigree..

Most Likely: #3 Smoke Town 2-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 6-1 2nd-DQ’d from WIN
Next Best: #2 Scofield 6-1 WON-Via DQ ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Brother Bob 7-2 3rd

3rd: David-NY, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Serpe has quietly had an outstanding season up here and Weekend Hideaway should win here to further augment Smilin’ Phil’s summer..

Most Likely: #5 Weekend Hideaway 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Awesome Weekend 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Slot Play 5-1 2nd

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Cat and mouse kind of group and under that scenario, don’t we all want Dominguez? I’m singling Serpe colt above and taking all of these in the P4..

Most Likely: #1 Promise Me a Cat 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Smokin’ Alice 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Hearts of Red 6-1 WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Bessie M 2-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Be aware that the AE’s (#11, #12, #13) all merit respect if any get in..

Most Likely: #1 Fredricksburg 2-1: Came in debut after bad break.. WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Irsaal: Strong page for task; Dam a half to St. Liam 6th
Next Best: #8 Summer Shiner 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Brickyard Kitten 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5
3: 5
4: 1-2-3-4-5-6
5: 1-3-8-12

3x1x6x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/5,6/3/1,6,11,13,14,15,16) Paid $388.50 ($194.25 for .50)

6th: Win-R, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Classy group. As mentioned by Andy Serling on Tuesday ATR, you have to wonder where other speed is going to come from here because if no one pressures Yield Bogey (5-1), he’ll wire this. Swift Warrior (6-1) was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Casino Host and Papaw Bodie in the G2 Muniz. What price would those two be in here? Nine O Wonderful (8-1) won the meet’s first race closing into soft splits. Right One (3-1) is field’s biggest earner and is lauded in Mike Welsch’s Workout Report for :23.1 final quarter in last drill and spirited gallop-out..

Most Likely: #7 Right One 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Yield Bogey 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Swift Warrior 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Nine O Wonderful 8-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice counterpoint to boy’s version an hour earlier. Derby Eve (8-1) is out of the mare that in prior meetings with Tiznow produced Colonel John, Mr. Hot Stuff & Kayce Ace. Gets 2nd outing here and moves to the lawn where her full sister (that’s Kayce Ace) excelled..

Best Value: #2 Derby Eve 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Magnificent Shirl 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Elusive Fate 6-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Sandsarita 15-1 3rd

8th: 8th P.G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top Tier Lass looks like your logical winner off sharp debut, but don’t like reference from Welsch that she appeared rank in 8/23 drill. Too anxious in two turn debut? There are several potential emergers in here..

Most Likely: #3 Top Tier Lass 2-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Watsdachances 4-1 WON ($9.50)
Best Value: #9 Go Kitten Go 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Skyfall 12-1 7th

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Check for SCR’s as I’m not sure #1 Gimme Credit (2-1) will go in this well-matched set. Major player obviously if he does..

Best Value: #12 Pervis 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Gimme Credit 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Short Shrift 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Wishingonadream 30-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Yeesh. Tough sequence gets no help from this finale. Think I have to give She Be Bunny another chance. One of the few things Leparoux has done right of late is win on the front end..

Best Value: #7 She Be Bunny 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Raquel 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Comment 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Accent 10-1 7th

@$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5
8: 3-6-7-9
9: 1-6-12
10: 1-2-7-8-9-10-11

2x4x3x7 = 168 x .50 = $84