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2nd week of KEE kicks with challenging multis

Wednesday, October 10th, 2012

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Can’t argue with Jeremy Plonk’s ideas of 3-1 fave Phychadelic and 6-1 Widja Didja here, but note that Galetoire (6-1), Tart’s Knickers (6-1) and Ribbon Taffy (10-1) all have solid synthetic form around the level. Cache Me — by 18% synthetic sire Congrats — has an attractive look if she likes the footing and California Gal (8-1), who takes as big a class drop as the favorite, owns efforts over this strip and at Presque Isle that are more than competitive. Tricky start to the P5..

Best Value: #9 Widja Didja 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Phychadelic 3-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #2 California Gal 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Cache Me 8-1 9th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Can’t quibble with bona fides of 2-1 fave Kamchatka whom Maker thought enough of to try in $150k Sunday Silence on LaD Super Derby undercard. Ran OK in there too behind Java’s War and Brown Almighty (See Bourbon Sunday) and gets hustling Paco Lopez who’s looking for first KEE win. After Kamchatka, there’s a number of attractive prices to consider that are making turf or stretchout moves including 20-1 Red Wings (English Channel o/o Red Ransom mare), 8-1 Giacoslew (slaying 2nd in KD sprint) and 20-1 Xingu (2nd timer off solid KD debut at huge number)..

Most Likely: #9 Kamchatka 2-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Rocking Hall 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #11 Xingu 20-1 12th
Exotics Use: #4 Giacoslew 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER: Key 9 over 4-7-11 with 3-4-6-7-10-11 (1x3x5x4 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Brew Blessings 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Touch of Revenge 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Miss Ruud 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Bonita Muneca 12-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Good feature. Glamour N Glory the filly to beat and David Fawkes adds hood to try and get her into race earlier with the 7 runner-up finishes a glaring flaw. Tim Ice has steadily rebuilt his client base since the slpit with the Jayaramans and horses like stakes runner Brown Almighty and 6-1 Stehekin here are getting his name back into pervue..

Most Likely: #10 Glamour N Glory 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Stehekin 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Quinichette 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Absolute Crackers 8-1 WON ($22.40)

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

Odd assembly of starter allowance foes going 10 panels..

Best Value: #11 Religious Ed 9-2 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 Swinging Bernie 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Icy Strait 12-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bluegrass Dreamer 4-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 9-11
6: 9
7: 2-5-9
8: 1-6-10
9: 3-4-6-11

2x1x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 7-9
7: 2-5-9
8: 1-6-10
9: 3-4-6-11-12

2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

Spinster, Bourbon round out KEE Fall Stars Wknd

Sunday, October 7th, 2012

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Funfortheholidays 12-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Miss Lucky Sevens 3-1 11th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bridge Loan 9-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Rivendell 4-1 WON ($12.40)

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 O T B Bob 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Endurance 12-1 6th

7th: 22nd Bourbon (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Balance the Books 4-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Strike the Note 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Sonofasamurai 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Summit County 30-1 4th

8th: 57th Spinster (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #7 Upperline 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Mystical Star 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Aruna 7-2 6th
Super Add: #12 Karlovy Vary 15-1 8th

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Starsilhouette 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rare Event 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Dancing to Town 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Imperial Pippin 4-1 3rd

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-3-6
6: 4-9
7: 6
8: 3-7-11
9: 2-3-6-9-10

3x2x1x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

Keeneland opener an appetizer to big Saturday

Saturday, October 6th, 2012

Keeneland season opened Friday with some of its’ typically unpredictable results, but rather than big prices hitting that seem impossible, the bonus numbers that came in were quite plausible. The MSW 6th for 2yo fillies saw Davey Carroll (Silver Strike) and Lon Wiggins (Flashy Gray) run 1-2 with 39-1 and 26-1 first time starts, a pairing that produced a $1,038 exacta. Though Carroll is better with his 2nd time starters, he can connect with debut types and his First Defense bay was a half to solid 4x Woodbine synthetic winner Striking Miss (Smart Strike). Silver Strike was the initial domestic winner for his Juddmonte sire and second overall from 18 juveniles to enter a gate. Dundonnell, bred and owned by Abdullah himself, won a Group 3 at York in August and lost a photo in a Group 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago. The Wiggins-Morrison runner up was also kin to synthetic winners, full Yankee Victor brothers Yankee Career and Threat.

Identifying the exacta pair as serious candidates wasn’t as much of a problem as moving them to near the top of your list in the 12 horse field that included 3 well-connected gals that had already run and 2 other FTS that seemed more appealing. Similarly in the 8th, Brian Lynch’s Miami Deco was one of 7 from 12 that appeared to have a winning chance and Elvis Trujillo delivered a sharp ride from the #12 slot for a $30.00 bop. I strung together $11.80 Sum of the Parts and $10.60 Spring in the Air who dominated the stakes and Catalano 2nd timer I’m Already Sexy ($26.20) in the nightcap, so failure to include Miami Deco in the quad play cost a share of a P4 that paid $7,045, more than twice the parlay. The P5 went un-hit creating a $94k carryover into the big Saturday stakes slate. Hope everyone did OK. As discussed under similar scenarios during Gulfstream and Saratoga, you’ll find the end zone at Keeneland with perseverance.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 16th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bridgetown 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #4 Icon Ike 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Great Mills 5-2 2nd

6th: 32nd TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

$94k P5 C/O starts here..

Hard to envision Groupie Doll losing as she would have to regress while someone else jumps forward..

Most Likely: #6 Groupie Doll 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Honey Chile 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Strike the Moon 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Giant Sensation 15-1 9th

7th: 15th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Motion and Team Valor were completely on the fence as of noon Friday as to Summer Soiree running here or in the Spinster Sunday, but ultimately settled for this adding to an already zippy pace scenario. It’s Hungry Island’s day..

Most Likely: #4 Hungry Island 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tapitsfly 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Summer Soiree 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Daisy Devine 3-1 2nd

8th: 99th Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Of the cross-entries to Sunday’s Bourbon, #7 Craving Carats & #1 Joha run here, #11 Balance the Books goes tomorrow. Wild, wide open group, but as in Friday’s Alcibiades, Casse appears to have the 2yo with an edge in Dynamic Sky..

Most Likely: #12 Dynamic Sky 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Tizracer 4-1 12th
Best Value: #3 He’s So Fine 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Are You Kidding Me 12-1 5th

9th: 27th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Certainly Wise Dan a single on any kind of budget multi-race play, but as in Toronto last month and despite everything he’s in the midst of accomplishing, doesn’t feel invincible..

Most Likely: #5 Wise Dan 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #7 Data Link 8-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Swift Warrior 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Corporate Jungle 12-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 6
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6-9-10-12-14 (10)
9: 5

1x4x10x1 = $40 ($20 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (6/2/1/5) Paid $134.40 ($67.20 for .50)

10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gloat 7-2 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 Cerce Cay 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Rushin No Blushin 15-1
Exotics Use: #2 Ocean Bertie 7-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Shhh 15-1 3rd

<$20 P5 Play:

6: 6
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 2-3-5-6-12
9: 5
10: 3-4

1x4x5x1x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick 5 (6/2/1/5/3) Paid $3.50 (4OF5) x 5 = $17.50

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 2-3-5-6-12
9: 5
10: 2-3-4-5-6-9-10

Main: 4x5x1x7 = 140 x .50 = $70

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

No opinion to offer per se, but all eyes will be on Darwin (Pletcher/Coolmore), the $1.3MM Big Brown sales topper from FT March Sale. Albertrani has 2 FTS Distorted Humors including Souper Funny, Mrs. Weber’s next Zoftig foal, thereby a half to Zo Impressive (Hard Spun) and Zaftig (Gone West) and Telegraph Hill, a first foal Darley homebred out nice GSW Little Belle..

7th: 65th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dreaming of Julia 2-5 WON ($2.30)
Best Value: #5 Late SCR (Injured by cast filly in next stall)
Next Best: #2 My Happy Face 4-1 2nd

8th: 141st Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Very interesting edition of this, even if just left to the 3 Pletcher runners. On that front, I think Archwarrior will ultimately be best with maturity and two turn routes, while Micromanage is better now (and gets helpful draw) and Shanghai Bobby most likely to be an early plateau type. Reddam/O’Neill team brings Goldencents to the party with plenty of heat off the Del Mar debut score and Fortify will likely continue advance after the determined Hopeful placement..

Best Value: #7 Micromanage 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Archwarrior 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Goldencents 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Shanghai Bobby 3-1 WON ($5.20)

9th: 63rd Jamaica H. (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (DD)

Howe Great is better than he’ll appear to wagering public. Dullahan will be an underlay but deservedly so..

Most Likely: #3 Dullahan 4-5 5th
Best Value: #7 Howe Great 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Cogito 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Summer Front 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #9 Trumpet Man 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #6 Springcourt 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Freudian Therapist 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Acadian Blues 6-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-2-4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-7
10: 5-6-8-9-11

1x5x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

Keeneland adds layer to rich fall action

Friday, October 5th, 2012

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

Here’s the link to Jeremy Plonk’s KEE Fall Meet Statistical Preview which offers several interesting clues about winners at the stand.

5th: ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Kenneally has clear horse to beat in MGSP (multiple graded stakes placed) Heavenly Landing getting a drop of class relief today. Next three all viable at square numbers with Amoss’ Snuggs potentially on a loose lead..

Most Likely: #6 Heavenly Landing 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Snuggs and Kisses 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Millenia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 My Perfect Ten 8-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tough start to the P5. Oliver’s Liberated a half to plus synth dasher Seruni while Kenneally firster Miss Brown Sugar kin to neat Ha Ha Tonka. Worthwhilepursuit from TAP is half to Disposablepleasure. Ward cuts back with Emotional Kitten but she hasn’t been drilled for speed coming out of SAR and all of her sibs did better routing. Defensive posture only..

Best Value: #5 Liberated 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Worthwhilepursuit 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Miss Brown Sugar 10-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Ebbycalvin Laloosh 8-1 12th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Loved Exothermic in the winter but he’s awfully tough to take here at a short number off the long break and with no end to the seemingly live longshots lined up..

Most Likely: #4 Tiz Sardonic Joe 8-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Share Out 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Slow Pace 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Where’s the Baby 10-1 5th

8th: 160th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Plenty of pace here..

Best Value: #8 Lonesome Street 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Sum of the Parts 4-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Aikenite 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Laurie’s Rocket 8-1 3rd

9th: 61st Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Entertaining edition of this with capacity crowd of missies appearing ready to be mixed and matched any way you want. Stall’s Magical Moon (5-1) bred to route yet demolished 5.5f-T Spa MSW. Casse’s Spring in the Air a generous 12-1 out of late-running Natalma placement to stablemate Spring Venture who stays home in TO for Saturday’s Mazarine. After that pair, anyone you like can be justified. Not sure what to do with Calder flash Rose to Gold. Note that the last three winners of this exited races at DMR (Deb) and WO (Deb, Natalma)..

Best Value: #9 Spring in the Air 12-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #13 Magical Moon 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Edge 12-1 7th
Super Add: #14 Dancinginthecircle 20-1 9th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Brutal end to the sequences..

Most Likely: #6 K to the Kroft 5-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Golden B.J. 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Rock Hard Cat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 I’m Already Sexy 12-1 WON ($26.20)

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-5-11
7: 4-6
8: 1-6-8
9: 9-13
10: 4-5-6-10

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-8
8: 1-6-8
9: 7-9-13
10: 4-5-6-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

 

Saturday stakes don’t disappont; More action Sunday

Sunday, September 30th, 2012

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 106th Matron (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Would love to be against Kauai Katie at 2-5, but unless Baby J engages her from the first jump, how does she not enjoy an easy time of it? Mott and Co. never figured out what ailed Seasoned Warrior in the Spinaway and expect a step back in the right direction here. Sweet Shirley May SCR’D ran big behind So Many Ways in the Spinaway, broke her maiden this surface and appears to be plenty tactical. 12-1 works..

Most Likely: #6 Kauai Katie 2-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #5 Seasoned Warrior 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Unabashed 8-1 4th

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Outstanding set with 8 here within a length or two of each other. Considerate is the key overlay at 8-1 with 15-1 Kaleidocope, 12-1 Decennial and 10-1 Buleria having price appeal as well. You don’t need me to tell you that the four ML faves (Princess Sinead, Scenario Analysis, Miss Suwanee, Ginny’s Classic) merit respect. There’s your 8. Have fun. No mixing and matching will be inappropriate..

Best Value: #11 Considerate 8-1: Should get ideal stalking voyage.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Princess Sinead 3-1: Trust Clement 1st NA; Gets pace.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Decennial 12-1: June BEL win came on less than firm.. WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #10 Miss Suwannee 4-1: Picks up Ramon for stretchout.. 9th

9th: 122nd Futurity (G2), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Superb match up for this storied event. Should be noted that Special Jo was flattered Saturday by Brave Dave’s Sapling follow up, an 89 Beyer score at Calder in the Birdonawire. Special Jo should get plenty of lick to run at here with no shortage of speed lined up. Interesting that Romans opts to run well-regarded Gulfport here instead of Saturday’s MSW..

Best Value: #2 Special Jo 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Weekend Hideaway 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Carried Interest 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Handsome Jack 7-2 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

This isn’t easy having come off the turf..

Most Likely: #13 Big Grandpa 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Fiscal Stimulus 7-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Metaurus 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #15 Catalan 5-2 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

Feels like it’s worth singling Kauai Katie to get the chance for 2-3 prices in the last 3..

7: 6
8: 2-3-5-10-11
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
10: 1-8-13-15

1x5x7x4 = 140 x .50 = $70

$0.50 Pick 4 (4,6/5/4/2,3,4,5,6,10,12,13,16) Paid $201.00

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Deep, tough set down the hill. I’m a sucker for Smokey Lonesome..

Most Likely: #3 Smokey Lonesome 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Honour the Deputy 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Circa’sgoldengear 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Red Defense 4-1 6th

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Expect Baffert and Miller firsters go to top of class here..

Most Likely: #9 Saturday Night Ride 3-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Dangerous Forest 9-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Golden Production 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Jumeima 12-1 5th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Predictable scramble..

Most Likely: #8 My Summer Slew 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Royal F J 10-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #9 Half Dome Dude 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #5 Posse Power 15-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Baffert filly imposing but if Big Tiz is ready off the 8 mo. break, she can win, especially with all the speed involved here..

Most Likely: #5 Distracting 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #8 Big Tiz 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Amy’s Outburst 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Double Ante 6-1 3rd

9th: 1st John Henry Turf Ch. (G2), 3+, 10f-T (DD)

As with his Love and Pride Saturday, Pletcher fave Turbo Compressor figures to have everything his own way up front and getting back to more manageable 10 panels should be another plus..

Most Likely: #6 Turbo Compressor 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Casino Host 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Slim Shadey 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #5 Interaction 6-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 King Maya 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Bipartisan 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Fable Haven 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Bull Time 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-8-9
8: 5-8
9: 3-5-6-8
10: 3-5-6-10

4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64