Have had some good ideas over the past several weeks but continue to struggle mightily to connect meaningful multi-race dots. P5 opportunity at SA Sunday turned out to be exceedingly challenging and C/O sequences Wednesday in New York and Thursday at won’t be any easier. Would like to tighten up the focus and fatten the wallet over the next couple weeks in advance of what is shaping up as a particularly terrific Breeders’ Cup…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$27k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Towering 8-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Matt and Jesse 5-2 (B) WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #5 Current Aquasition 15-1 (C) 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Champagne City 15-1 (X) 6th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Same Old Wish 7-5 (A) WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #8 Moonhanger 8-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #2 Sky Music 7-2 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Bomber Boy 5-2 (C) 2nd

<$35 P4 Play:

2: 5-6-7-9
3: 1
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 1-2-4-8

4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,5,10,11/1/1/1) Paid $91.50

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #16 Regal Strike 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best:#15 Orsonian 5-2 (A) WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Tazered 9-2 (C) 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Another challenging group, especially if you think Right One is vulnerable..

Most Likely: #3 Right One 8-5 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #9 Awakino Cat 10-1 (B) 6th
Next Best: #6 Unbridled Ocean 7-2 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Grand Rapport 6-1 (B) 4th

“C’s”: #7 Karakorum Legend (8-1) 3rd; #10 Joe’s Blazing Aaron (12-1) WON

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #5 We Need V L T’s 8-1 (A) 9th
Next Best: #6 Karakorum Elektra 7-2 (A) 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Eden Is Burning 5-2 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #1 Jitney 5-1 (C) 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 Stormy Acre (A) WON ($2.70)

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 1-2-8
6: 15-16
7: 3-5-6-9
8: 5-6-8
9: 5

1x3x2x4x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

@$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-15-16
7: 3-5-6-7-9-10
8: 5-6-8
9: 5

3x6x3x1 = $54

SANTA ANITA RESULTS 10/14

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

$207k P5 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Sudden Sunday 5-2 (A) WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #1 Passionville 6-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Northern Flight 3-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Letthepartybegin 6-1 (C) 4th

2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Candy Waltz 8-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Muchos Besos 5-2 (B) 3rd
Best Value: #4 Tiz Top 6-1 (C) 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Late SCR

3rd: CLM, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Bubba Fitz 2-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #2 True Again 6-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #3 Tricksareforkids 6-1 (C) 6th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Power Ped 2-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #6 Anytime 5-1 (B) 5th
Best Value: #7 Grand Giant 30-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Zippingaroundtown 6-1 (C) 7th
Super Add: #10 Aerial Artist 8-1 (C) 4th
P5 Consider: #11 One Firm Cat 9-2 (C) WON ($10.20)

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Chloe W 3-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #11 Flashy Delight 4-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mirror Ball 6-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Christmas Candy 4-1 (B) WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #6 Prettypriceygirl 4-1 (C) 2nd

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-2-3-4-6-7
2: 1-2
3: 2-4
4: 6-7-9
5: 4-11

6x2x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2
3: 2-4-6
4: 3-6-7-9-10-11
5: 2-4-10-11

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Apologize for selections by name only but lost entire written analysis in computer hiccup earlier and do not have time to re-write blurbs..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$65k Double C/O

Most Likely: #2b Delhomme 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #5 Mudflats 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Long River 8-1 2nd

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Cybertron & N F’s Destiny ran Thursday. Likely SCR’s..

Best Value: #7 Readbytheline 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Warrioroftheroses 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Big City Boy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Greeley’s Law 12-1 6th

7th: 36th Athenia (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Big SCR with Dealbata coming out..

Most Likely: #2 Ruthenia 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 La Cloche 10-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #3 Embarr 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Laughing 4-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Wine Burglar 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Girl Code 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tokyo Time 10-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Channel of Gold 6-1 6th

9th: 53rd Knickerbocker (G3), 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Boisterous 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #2 Sky Blazer 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Stormy Lord 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 See Tobe 12-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #10 New Yorker 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Red Jack 10-1 10th
Best Value: #11 Hooligan’s Delight 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Louie Mondello 8-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-5
6: 1-6-7-8
7: 1-2
8: 6
9: 2-3
10: 3-10

3x4x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 2-3-6
9: 2-3-6-8
10: 1-3-10-11

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Don’t Tell Sophia 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Adjacent 2-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Ridgester 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Submission 3-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Yuzuru 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Psychadelacized 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Bow Bells 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #11 SCR

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ire 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Lady Diva Ga Ga 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Spun Cap 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Whispering Wisdom 12-1 8th

9th: 29th Queen Elizabeth (G1), 9f-T (DD)

You almost need the ‘all’ button to be guaranteed a pass through this incredibly well-matched group..

Best Value: #1 Better Lucky 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Samitar 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Stephanie’s Kitten 5-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Dayatthespa 3-1 WON ($8.60)

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Castlepost 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #3 Original Art 6-5 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Caddo Lake 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Desert Doc 15-1 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 1-5
7: 2-5-9
8: 1-3-8
9: 1-5-7-8
10: 3-9

2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-9
8: 1-3-8
9: 1-5-6-7-8
10: 3-7-9

3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 23rd Cal Cup Juvenile, 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Strong Wind 3-1 9th
Next Best: #3 The Humancomplaint 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Monument 9-2 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #1 Warren’s Rocky 20-1 8th

6th: 23rd Cal Cup Distaff (1st Div.), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tiz Flirtatious 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #11 Unusual Hottie 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Teddy’s Promise 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Best Present Ever 4-1 2nd

7th: 23rd Cal Cup Sprint, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Shudacudawudya 7-2 5th
Next Best: #9 Derby Gold 6-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Obsess 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Ain’t No Other 3-1 2nd

8th: 23rd Cal Cup Distaff (2nd Div.), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Sugarinthemorning 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Bella Viaggia 12-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #6 West Ruler 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Sparkling Style 4-1 4th

9th: 23rd Cal Cup Classic, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 John Scott 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Lucky Primo 5-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #1 Holladay Road 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Rousing Sermon 3-1 4th

10th: 23rd Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Sacred Delight 4-1 8th
Best Value: #10 Graduator 5-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Tilde 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Doinghardtimeagain 12-1 2nd

@$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-8-9
8: 1-10
9: 1-5-7
10: 7-9-10

6x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54

Another wild day at Keeneland Thursday was punctuated by a 4 filly blanket finish in the G3 Jessamine that favored crazily overlaid B. Wayne Hughes homebred Moonwalk when the photograph was developed. 12-1 going in, the Sale Romamns trainee got away from the gate at 36-1 and was part of a group of 5 missies that dawdled through the first three quarters in :23.4, :49.2 and a torpid 1:15.1. Summer of Fun, Oscar Party and Sunset Time all had their chances under the crawling scenario, while Kitten’s Point and Hedonemewrongsong were the closers who did their utmost to get involved.

Earlier, the big P5 carryover pool party got a $22.40 boost as a real pace at 8.5f opened the door for Positive Side who was making his first start under Grant Forster’s care. I needed runner up Tetradrachm to get by the winner, but new dad Miguel Mena was too late arriving on the scene. The first time starters were the right call in the MSW 6th, as Cor Cor, Lady Stonewall and Crazy Lucky came together to produce a handsome $310 tri. Similarly in the 7th, Scatman, Ever So Lucky and Keep Up tripped a $100 triple despite being the 2nd, 1st and 4th choices respectively. All my own multis were derailed by Moonwalk in the feature, but one Twin Spires player took down the entire P5 of $266,430 when Cataract Canyon and Jimmy Graham nosed FTS Glamour Puss in the finale.

Fun afternoon and I hope everyone did well.. Weekend action gets going early Friday with good sequences in NY ($20k P6 C/O) and KY..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Weird group. Not sure where the pace is coming from here..

Best Value: #9 Evan’s Rocket 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Tapitude 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Victoryat Last 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Here’s Zealicious 6-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Tucker’s Point will be a single for many, but he does come back pretty quick from the big effort and Cape Glory, Mordi’s Miracle, Last Gunfighter and even perrenial maiden Invocation are well within striking range..

Most Likely: #2 Tucker’s Point 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Last Gunfighter 5-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #1 Mordi’s Miracle 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Cape Glory 3-1 6th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Seven of these (1-3-5-8-9-11-12) are within a length or two of each other. Tough lawn dash. #1 Desert Bliss is 0/13 but gets Ramon and a pace to close into. #14 (AE) Talmadge Hill would embraceable should she somehow get in..

Most Likely: #1 Desert Bliss 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Jennys Creek 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Fast and Strong 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Notesfromabroad 5-1 11th

7th: Rob ‘n Gin, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Rob ‘n Gin was best at a mile or 8.5 on the lawn, but it’s still nice to seem his name on a race. Trained by Bobby Barbara for Sabine, the son of Farma Way was a game pacesetting type made close to $1,000,000 winning stakes at 3, 4 and 5 including the Jersey Derby, Hall of Fame, PA Governor’s Cup, KY Cup Mile and Poker. He came within an eyelash of being a G1 winner when losing a photo in the ’99 Atto Mile in one of his final career starts..

Best Value: #3 BEAU CHOIX 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Surfrider 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Upgrade 3-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Arc Above 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Presumptive 5-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Solitaire 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Carson Hall 10-1 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T

Super contentious finish to the sequences. Yeesh. No less than eight (1-2-3-6-8-9-10-11) appear capable..

Most Likely: #10 To the Point 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Mizzen Donald 10-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Must Be Love 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Vinda 15-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 7-9
5: 1-2-5-7
6: 1-3-9
7: 3
8: 3-8-11
9: 9

2x4x3x1x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-9-11
7: 2-3-4
8: 1-3-8-11
9: 2-9-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

<$75 P5 &/or P4 Play:

6: 3
7: 2-7
8: 1-2-4-5-7-9
9: 2-8-10-11
10: 1-5-7

1x2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$65k P5 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #12 Geothermal 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Tetradrachm 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Cantonic 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Benergy 12-1 9th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Firsters save for the 1, 3 & 10. Taking clues from trainer stats and breeding/sib strength..

Best Value: #2 Lady Stonewall 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Crazy Lucky 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Cor Cor 8-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #1 Gigglin’ Gal 5-1 6th

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Keep Up 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ever So Lucky 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Scatman 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #1 In the Beat 20-1 6th

8th: 22nd Jessamine (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Wide open. Note that the last 3 winners of this all were exiting Saratoga (House of Grace, Kathmanblu) or Belmont (Somali Lemonade) runs. Those successes were authored from off the pace and not since Laragh in 2008 has this been annexed on the front end..

Most Likely: #8 Always Kitten 7-2 10th
Next Best: #6 Oscar Party 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Hedonemewrongsong 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Summer of Fun 6-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 Citi Point 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Glamour Puss 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Fleet Classic 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Tightly Wound 3-1 7th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2-12
6: 2-6-9
7: 1-2-7-10-12
8: 8
9: 2-5-10-12

2x3x5x1x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-9
7: 1-2-7-10-12
8: 6-8-9
9: 2-5-10-12

3x5x3x4 = 180 x .50 = $90