Hollywood action proved entertaining Thursday with a highlight being the big effort from Fast Bullet which earned a 109 Beyer in the 6.5f ALW win. Low opinion of Jay’s Firetruck in the 6th cost the P4 as the 2nd choice enjoyed a comfortable stalking trip under Tyler Baze. $22k C/O at Aqueduct Friday in a sequence that manages to include 4 turf races.. on December 7th!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Sheerflakesofgold 5-2 (A) 8th
Next Best: #7 Caribean Beat 4-1 (A) WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #3 Bonatini 8-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bluegrass Rumor 3-1 (B) 4th

5th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Milkyyourway 4-5 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #5 G. A. Empress 8-1 (C) 4th
Next Best: #7 Silver Prize 10-1 (X) WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Hundred Acre Wood 15-1 (X) 5th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tough, well matched group..

Best Value: #6 Fastest Magician 10-1 (A) 8th
Next Best: #8 Pocket Cowboys 5-2 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Writingonthewall 5-1 (B) 6th
Super Add: #4 Big Posse Sky 8-1 (B) 7th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rigby 9-5 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #5 Wee Freudian 5-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #2 Be Bullish 3-1 (C) WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #7 All of the Above 7-2 (C) 5th

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Excess Liquidity 7-2 (A) 4th
Best Value: #7 Cross Gate 10-1 (B) 6th
Next Best: #6 He Ain’t Bluffing 5-2 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Dattts Happy 9-2 (C) 2nd

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-T

A bunch here that have had tons of chances..

Most Likely: #1 Post Pattern 3-1 (A) 9th
Best Value: #8 Hidden Vow 20-1 (B) 7th
Next Best: #4 River Tune 4-1 (B) WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Sea to Sky 6-1 (C) 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-7
5: 3
6: 6-8
7: 1-4
8: 4-6-7
9: 1-4-8

2x1x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-6-8
7: 1-4
8: 1-4-6-7
9: 1-3-4-8

4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

May be overthinking this, but it feels like a very tough group with almost the whole set separated by a couple lengths. Don’t miss ATR discussion with Haskin later as #9 Tummel triggers fascinating pedigree chase back to Laughter, dam of Private Terms, daughter of Shenanigans and thereby Ruffian’s sister..

Best Value: #8 D J Dave 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 A Toe by Three 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Tummel 6-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Champions Gate 5-1 7th

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Major contenders have had plenty of chances here. Leaning toward frogs with least warts..

Most Likely: #4 SCR
Best Value: #5 Warren’s Bugler 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Suancesong 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Denny the Great 4-1 6th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Superb group. Suppose Fast Bullet ‘won’t lose’, but these aren’t tomato cans..

Most Likely: #6 Fast Bullet 3-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #9 Close to the Edge 9-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Cyclometer 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Sequoia Warrior 7-2 2nd

8th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

How great is this? Cassidy’s Van Dien Avenue (In Excess), sister of The Usual Q T (Unusual Heat), faces off against Sadler’s Majestic Jewel (Condago), sister of Evening Jewel (Northern Afleet) and Hollendorfer’s Roust ‘Em Bertie (Bertrando), sister of Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit)..

Most Likely: #3 Van Dien Avenue 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Maddog Maddie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Majestic Jewel 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Roust ‘Em Bertie 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Qiaona 4-1 WON ($9.80)

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-5-7-8-9
6: 1-4/SCR-5-7-9
7: 6
8: 1-3-8-9-10

6x4x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

Laid off any formal decision-making Saturday and glad I did as carryover-inducing results at Aqueduct & Hollywood and quirky Gulfstream Claiming Crown card made for tough some tough multi-race sledding. Solid action at all 3 venues Sunday.

DRF’s Mike Welsch & firebrand owner Jerry Jamgotchian join Seth and me on ‘Loose on the Lead’ this morning. Stream: www.capitalotb.com

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Two day, $73k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Sheza Classy Lady 9/5 (A) WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #3 Aliraven 6-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Discreet Lady 8-1 (X) 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Virtually impossible to separate these with much confidence. 2-3-6-7-9-10 seem like the ones that demand attention..

Most Likely: #3 Frosty Bay 4-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #7 Stellarite 3-1 (A) 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Adriatic Dream 2-1 (A) WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #1e Kelly entry 10-1 (C) 2nd/9th

Backup “C’s”: #2 Image of Noon 10-1; #10 Transplendid 8-1 (C)

6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

The dreaded State-bred MDN $20k: Bane of multi-race players everywhere. Galluscio (Nine Cracks) sharp with new barn tenants and biggest class drop there is; Withalittlebit (Bush) gets dry/fast strip for the first time while diving..

Best Value: #2 Nine Cracks 6-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Withalittlebit 4-1 (B) 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Buck Stops Here 3-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #10 Si Phi Rebel 12-1 (C) 9th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

#1 Idle American the side of the Kelly entry that runs and decision was very key to this as #1a Yield Bogey would have kept #3 Plainview company up front. Now you have to worry that the DiPrima gelding is loose under Wilmer. Another challenging event with a half dozen (1-2-3-5-8-9-10) all owning potential..

Most Likely: #5 Best Actor 3-1 (A) WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #3 Plainview 5-2 (A) DNF-Lost rider
Best Value: #9 Forecon 15-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Idle American 4-1 (B) 6th

Backup “C’s”: #1 Recharged 8-1; #10 Carson Hall 10-1 (C)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD)

Treacherous group features Roddy Valente West Coast invading claimant (Swiss Tart) and 10 month returnee Ultimo Principe (an expensive Italian men’s clothing line) from Rudy. SCR Game Token who ran yesterday..

Most Likely: #2 Hewitts 7-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #3 Swiss Tart 5-2 (A) WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #8 Nacho Saint 12-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Ultimo Principe 4-1 (B) 2nd

Backup “C’s”: #1 Temecula Creek 10-1; #5 W. W. Lady’s Man 5-1 (C)

9th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Brutal finish to demanding sequence with 8 of the 10 looking good enough. And #11 (AE) I Dreamt I Was (10-1) will be eligible for laurels if drawing in..

Most Likely: #3 Downtown Hottie 5-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Centrina 8-1 (A) 8th
Next Best: #10 Strike Accord 7-2 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Yes Its Pink 4-1 (B) WON ($8.40)

Backup “C’s”: #2 Eurokay by Me 15-1; #4 Chasing Piper 8-1; #5 Porvoo 12-1; #8 Desert Bliss 6-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2
5: 3-6-7
6: 2
7: 3-5-9
8: 2-3
9: 3-6-7-10

1x3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (2,5/6/6/5/3,5/6,11) Paid $103.50 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3
7: 3-5-9
8: 2-3-8
9: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-10

2x3x3x8 = 144 x .50 = $72

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T/108′ (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Aunt Martha 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tapicat 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #7 Tokyo Time 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Naked Watch 6-1 8th

6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Macarthur Causeway 5-2 7th
Best Value: #8 Sheriff Ira 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Slammin Slew 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Turbo Cannon 3-1 2nd

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T/48′ (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Spectacular Me 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1e Ward entry 3-1 3rd/7th
Exotics Use: #8 Tie Dye 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Three Hearts 5-1 2nd

8th: 7th Sunshine State-FL, 3+, 7f (DD)

Restricted to FL breds but a terrifically well-matched cast of hard hitters..

Best Value: #5 Good Lord 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Little Drama 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Fort Loudon 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Close It Out 8-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/108′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Let the Kitten Run 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 S S Pinafore 4-1 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #4 White Lion 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Southern Heights 3-1 4th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 3-7-9
6: 2-3-6-8
7: 1-4-8
8: 5-7
9: 6-10

3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-6-8
7: 1-4-8
8: 5-7-8
9: 3-4-6-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Double Ante 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Demonsterous 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Mary Fildes 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Ricspretentiousgal 7-2 WON ($8.60)

5th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 JADE WITH ENVY 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Mint Twist 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Sophie’s Secret 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Cloudy Moon 6-1 WON ($22.60)

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Folk Dancer 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 True Expectations 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Eyes On the Prize 6-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Include the Baby 3-1 7th

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Salah Champ 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #12 Judge Carr 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Crazy Cozy 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Money Makin Sam 9-2 4th

8th: 32nd Vernon O. Underwood (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Should be fun. I’ll try the new face, first time 4yo Smash at what should be a square price. Starts at 6-1 and if he takes money, it’s a positive sign..

Best Value: #2 Smash 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Smiling Tiger 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Bank the Eight 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Capital Account 5-2 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (‘405’ HOL/LA Double, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Cotton Belle 12-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Cajun Market 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Letthepartybegin 3-1 9th
Super Add: #13 Bwanadada 5-2 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-4-5
5: 7
6: 5-7
7: 6-12
8: 2-4
9: 1-6-8

3x1x2x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 5-7
7: 4-6-10-12
8: 2-4-5
9: 1-6-8-13

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Caught square prices Sunday at HollyPark in $19 Unstoppper Topper and $16 Unbridled Command, boosting the nice $870 P4 and closing out an action-packed Thanksgiving Holiday. Hope everyone enjoyed the extended weekend and did well. There are still leftovers remaining, (I made a Turkey Divan last night in fact), and Thursday’s $105k carryover should swell past $500,000. Thoughts on the tough sequence below..

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$105k C/O starts here..

Very difficult start to skein with droppers, cutbackers and layoff returnees everywhere you look. Vienna’s El Pitucon is the giant question having been away 2+ years. I’ll let him beat me. Baltas has been sending out live horses with alacrity and turns Streets of Heaven back from 8.5f here. The last time the Street Cry gelding did this while with with Pender (April ’11), he buried a similar group. The pick..

Most Likely: #9 Streets of Heaven 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Half Dome Dude 3-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Cayambe 4-1 (B) WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #4 Scofield Barracks 10-1 (C) 5th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

When running through PP’s the first time was drawn to Dynamic Diva immediately making first start for the Mitchell barn. But stats can be funny and Formulator helps you find anomolies. Mitchell is 28% ($2.44) with runners new to the barn and 30% ($2.27) stretching out to routes from sprints. Both apply with the 3yo filly he sends today, but Mitchell is shockingly 0/9 asking for added ground from those making their first start under his watch! As Casey Stengel used to say, “You could look it up”. Does it mean she can’t win? No. But I’m a lot less enthused than I was initially. Problematic group with half the field making big drops..

Most Likely: #1 Last Sting 7-2 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Tweetie Pie 15-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic Diva 4-1 (B) 8th
Super Add: #9 Katy’s Kitty 4-1 (C) WON ($7.40)

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Miss Communication gets back to turf which she seems to prefer, retains Talamo and owns edge on pace. First opportunity for smaller tix to single..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Communication 5-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Toluca 4-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #10 Miss Speed Dating 5-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #6 Warren’s Mo Money 5-1 (C) 6th

6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Dangerous older maiden set with 3 firsters (Baffert’s #8 Indian Gods, Baltas’ #4 Funny Man, Headley’s #3 Wild Media) to balance against 5 that have already been out. Baffert also sends #1 The Brian who flopped twice at DMR after promising SA debut. Could simply be that the Street Sense colt hated the La Jolla footing. Big tickets will buy this nearly impossible affair..

Most Likely: #1 The Brain 5-2 (A) WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Wild Media 7-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #2 Just Fishin 5-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Indian Gods 3-1 (B) 2nd

ALL OTHERS: 4-5/SCR-6-7 (C)

7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Mamma Kimbo doesn’t need lead to win and should sit ideal outside trip stalking Sister Moon..

Most Likely: #4 Mamma Kimbo 9-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Vision in Gold 2-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Sister Moon 5-2 (C) 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Lady Katfish 3-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #1 Truly Beautiful 5-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 She’s a Go Girl 4-1 (B) WON ($18.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Irish Presence 6-1 (C) 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 9
4: 1-2-4-8-9
5: 1
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 4
8: 1-8

1x5x1x7x1x2 = 70 x $2 = $140

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-7
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 3-4
8: 1-7-8

2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 31st Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Dermot Weld sends Group 1 Juddmonte mare Emulous here and she certainly merits respect on class. Appears to be a tender sort though with notable gaps between starts. Have been singing praises of Tiz Flirtatious (6-1) since early on and the Cal-bred will likely get lost on the board. Should be enough pace up front to set target for Bejarano..

Best Value: #1 Tiz Flirtatious 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Emulous 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Future Generation 7-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Dayatthespa 2-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Will side with the pair that have starts and nice workers from Miller and Sadler, but the horse to keep an eye on is Blevin. The Dizney homebred from Baffert is a half to Apriority, but being by Empire Maker you’d expect he’ll want a little more ground with which to work..

Most Likely: #5 Distinctiv Passion 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #11 Manando 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Appealing Tale 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Cervaro 15-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very tricky set. Consider adding #5 Cinco de Mario (4-1) 3rd and #10 Procurement (9-2) WON to multi-race plays..

Most Likely: #2 Buckleberry Grey 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #3 Will True Up 9-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #9 Wine List 5-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

If they let Unstopper Topper (12-1) loose, he can wire this group for outfit sharp off the claim..

Best Value: #5 Unstopper Topper 12-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #9 Northern Iowa 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Dynamic Host 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Bobby Flay 4-1 3rd

9th: 71st Hollywood Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (DD)

Tremendously intriguing group of 14 including Bush NY bred Unbridled Command who has just continued to improve with every start. May float up in wagering. Grandeur, Speaking of Which and Smart Ellis were 1-2-3 in the Twilight Derby on Friday of Cup Weekend and you want to get Smart Ellis into the mix as prominently as possible for a mutuel boost..

Most Likely: #3 Unbridled Command 6-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #5 Smart Ellis 20-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Speaking of Which 9-2 14th
Exotics Use: #4 Grandeur 7-2 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

$31,139 Super Hi-5 C/O..

Best Value: #5 Embossing 9-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Miss American Pie 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Song of a Witch 6-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Medusalina 5-1 3rd

<$100 or <$50 P4 Plays:

7: 2-3-7/SCR (5-9-10)
8: 3-5-9-10
9: 3-4-5-11
10: 5-6

2x4x4x2 = 64 x .50 = $32
5x4x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80

$0.50 Pick 4 (10/5/3/1,6,14) Paid $870.30