Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and are ready for one of the great afternoons of the racing year with Santa Anita’s winter season lifting its’ lid. A terrific card gets it going..

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (PL Pick All, P5, P3, DD)

Plenty of speed lined up in the season opener to want a stalker-closer. Hollendorfer Cal-bred Tribal Jewel has been noticably stronger 2-turning and seems sure to be all of his 9-2 or more..

Best Value: #3 Tribal Jewel 9-2 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #7 Sir Bond 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Macho Dorado 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Bobby Flay 8-1 6th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Drift King 2nd
Best Value: #10 Smoken Legacy 5th
Next Best: #14 Stacy’s Hope 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Stoneside WON ($17.00)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sky Fox 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Time to Doubledown 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #12 Goodbye Charlie 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Cold Bay 5-1 11th

4th: 40th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Cutback out of big BC Distaff try should suit My Miss Aurelia, but Baffert acquiree Book Review highly accomplished at this specialized trip and supremely dangerous..

Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Book Review 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #1 Mamma Kimbo 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Reneesgotzip 4-1 2nd

5th: 13th Sir Beaufort (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Mandella family may have this race cornered with Gary sending progressive pace presser Silentio and Dick offering hard luck rallying sort Smart Ellis..

Most Likely: #8 Silentio 9-2 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #3 Smart Ellis 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Battle Force 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Fit to Rule 8-1 8th

<$75 P5/<$40 P4 Plays:

1: 2-3-7-9
————-
2: 2-10
3: 3-5-12
4: 5-7
5: 3-7-8

P5: 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4: 2x3x2x3 = $36

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

This juvy maiden event is carded annually and typically produces a quality stakes type (Midnight Transfer-2011, The Factor-2010, Concord Point-2009). Outposted Baffert/Dizney fave Belvin, a half to Apriority and Bahamian Squall, has a big edge on this mostly debutting group. Pedigree players should note that Puype’s Cruel Spirits is a half to Leah’s Secret; Palma’s Lord of Ballandrae is a half to ill-fated Sailor’s Cap and though SCRATCHED, be aware that Hofmans’ Palm Island is a full to Aggie Engineer..

Most Likely: #12 Blevin 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Forest Boy 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Footbridge 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Masaru 6-1 4th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fable Heaven 9-2 4th
Best Value: #6 We Likey Mikey 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sarangani 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Rintoo 8-1 WON ($10.80)

8th: 61st Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD)

Certain fixture races on the calendar live up to expectation every year and the Malibu, the last G1 every season, is one of them. Cast of 10 is excellent top to bottom with 4 starters exiting Breeders’ Cup events and all seemingly primed for this opportunity. While The Lumber Guy is the horse to beat, he hasn’t worked as well under Drysdale’s care as Hushion’s and there are too many options available to accept the favorite’s price. Mandella — looking to win this for an stunning 5th time in 25 years — has major player in Jimmy Creed, while Asmussen looks for a breakthrough tally for BC Turf Sprint runner up Unbridled’s Note. Politicallycorrect (Ward/Ramsey) and Private Zone (O’Neill/Reddam) were 1-2 in Cup Saturday’s Damascus and Rosario displays commitment to maintain ride on Politicallycorrect by making the west coast run. It took Bob Baffert a long time to win his first Malibu when The Factor got it done a year ago, but while you are forced to respect his entrants, none of the 4 players he sends look particularly imposing. Fed Biz and Guilt Trip have paper edge, but Drill is 3/3 going 7/8ths and he and Castaway SCR’D show up here in same layoff manner as The Factor. Fun race is a real treat again this year..

Most Likely: #2 Jimmy Creed 9-2 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #10 Unbridled’s Note 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 The Lumber Guy 3-1 7th

9th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 WILD MEDIA 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Soul Saver 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Scorpion Warrior 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Affliction 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #4 Delayed 6-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-12
7: 3-4-5-6-8-11
8: 2-4-5-8-10
9: 12

3x6x5x1 = 90 x .50 = $45

Another fascinating and largely successful afternoon of action at Hallandale Thursday, though the monster scores proved maddeningly elusive again. The P5/P4 sequences turned out enormous payoffs, but other than $38.80 Dynamic Boy in the 8th, the winners were easily attainable. That doesn’t mean the big multis were easy to hit obviously given GP’s bulky fields. Only one ticket negotiated the P5 for a stunning $61,068, while P4 bingos returned a tremendous $4,666.

I thought the Maragh’s Dynamic Boy was necessary as a wire threat and indeed Rajiv was able to hold his dad’s charge together to become one of the only front end winners of a turf route thus far at the meet. 10-1 top tab Love of Flying couldn’t get by the winner, but helped build the $233.40 exacta. P3’s with Dynamic Boy paid $1,261.80 (6th-8th) and $571.00 (7th-9th) assuaging the anguish of being live to nightcap no show Velez in the P5.

Hope everyone did well! Another solid skien on the second half of Gulfstream’s card Friday. Last live ATR broadcast of 2012 this morning. It may not have been a great year for racing off the oval, but it’s been pretty darn good in terms of gate to wire action.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 9f-T/60′ (P5, P3, DD)

Juvies going 9 panels on the lawn including Todd and JJ Pletcher’s One Mint Julep, a half to Awesome Gem. Both Romans — curiously by Kitten’s Joy o/o Rahy mares — look necessary with longer priced Tenforthemoney offering a tad more upside on the surface switch and stretchout. Angel Penna’s 15-1 Federal Agent is going to be overlooked and should relish the move to the lawn..

Most Likely: #1 Tenforthemoney 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 One Mint Julep 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Federal Agent 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Prado Cat 5-2 WON ($5.20)

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Both Annie Roe (Kaplan) & Bid a Moon (Ness) are cross-entered in today’s Tampa 5th, an OC/ALW for a 50% smaller purse.. And both SCR!

Best Value: #1 Henny’s Hurricane 8-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Canaima 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 With Mom’s Blessing 8-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 5f-T/0′ (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Le Fascinator 5-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Why Who 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Shrinking Violet 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: # 5 Rosie Red 5-2 3rd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T/60′ (DD)

This is a very odd assembly with far too many ne’er do wells to be confident about on the win end. Solution is to reach for a price and that’s 20-1 Special Energy who makes first start for the very capable Jeremiah Englehart. PEN summer effort wins this going away and he gets a pace to chase too..

Best Value: #10 Special Energy 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Knock Rock 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Twigazuri Strait 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #7 Let’s Call a Truce 4-1 2nd

10th:CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Steve’s Adventures 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Put It Back Tiger 10-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Ultimate Choice 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Pentland 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Distinctive Pic 4-1 12th

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-3-5
7: 1-2-3
8: 2
9: 3-4-7-8-10
10: 7-8-14

4x3x1x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

$0.50 Pick 5 (2/1,5,6/4/3/14) Paid $17.00 (4OF5)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3
8: 2-8
9: 3-4-7-8-10
10: 7-8-14

3x2x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

Despite a good day overall Wednesday, came away from Gulfstream action bitterly disappointed with my tentative approach to the P5/P4 that left more than $8k on the table. Had no trouble identifying the winners in the eminently hittable sequences, but decision to spend $48 instead of $72 on the P4 cost $1,300 when Jay Eye See won the the 7th. The P5 paid a crazy $7k and a more aggressive attack had obvious potential to access it. The upside is there was a myriad of exotics and multis laid out and I was pleased to hear from a few people that scored well on the afternoon. Thursday sequence was a little less interesting in the handicapping process, but you never know. Hope you did well yesterday!

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

REMEMBER GULFSTREAM HAS .50 TRIFECTAS!

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Don’t trust anybody here..

Best Value: #4 Shirleycee 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Maelys Hope 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Red Over Blue 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Mass Invasion 12-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 5f-T/0′ (P4, P3, DD)

I don’t get 5-2 fave Skylander at all. Ton of speed in this too by the way and the one that looks like a stalking beneficiary is Beach Master..

Most Likely: #3 Beach Master 6-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Party Lad 10-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #2 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Sayaad 5-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Mike Welsch, several well-bred types here working very nicely for debut (Highestmaintenance, Fiorelli) or 2nd outing in the case of Gadget Girl. Five of the 9 seem capable..

Most Likely: #6 Cheyenne Autumn 4-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Highestmaintenance 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #1 Gadget Girl 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Fioretti 3-1 5th

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T/60′ (DD)

Best Value: #10 Love of Flying 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Stay Red 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a Late SCR
Super Add: #11 Dynamic Boy 15-1 WON ($38.80)

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 1m-T/0′ (Super Hi-5)

Flaxman & Graham Motion offer 2nd time starter & Aruna half brother Pontus (Harlan’s Holiday) up for $35k here. Don’t see how that is construed as a positive..

Most Likely: #10 Velez 3-1 11th
Best Value: #1 Tubal 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pontus 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Boy of Summer 6-1 WON ($9.60)
Hi-5 Play: #9 The Best Monkey 12-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 2-4-7
6: 2-3-5-10
7: 3-6
8: 1-3-10-11
9: 10

3x3x2x4x1 = 72 x.50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-5-10
7: 1-3-5-6-7-8
8: 1-3-10
9: 1-10

3x6x3x2 =108 x .50 = $54

Odd weekend with a good Saturday followed by a rough Sunday. Gulfstream’s $80k P5 carryover and Hollywood closing day drew attention, but Florida action proved too simple and Cali too complex. Quiet on the 2 coasts until the 26th, so Hallandale, Tampa and New Orleans will have players focus until then. At Gulfstream today, El Padrino returns in the 4th and Quiros, a half brother of Invasor, debuts in the 7th..

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Drop It Now 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #5 Alejandro 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Normandruth 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Sweetsouthernman 12-1 4th

6th: CLM, 2yo-F, 1m-T/0′ (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Tricolette 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Ecstatic 12-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #3 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Analogy 5-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Quiros (Street Cry) a half to the great Invasor but no guarantee he’s ready at first asking or cranked up by Matz for sprinting. Remember that Jess Campitelli is encouraged by what Chief Falco has displayed preparing for debut. Pletcher/Melnyk unveil Oistin’s Town here, a Speightstown son out of the same connections’ nice Tweedside..

Most Likely: #4 Oistin’s Town 4-1 10th
Best Value: #7 Chief Falco 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Jay Eye See 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 To Dare Is to Do 8-1 9th

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f-T/60′ (DD)

Summit County holds slight edge versus these, but not by much and after him nearly everyone fits..

Most Likely: #2 Summit County 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #4 Made in U.S.A. 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Lightening Cutter 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Jump for Kitten 6-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T/0′ (Super Hi-5)

$15,686 Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #8 Dragon Tail 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Dr. Goldfarb 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Lime Drop Kid 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Saturnus 10-1 WON ($33.00)

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 3-5-7
6: 7-9
7: 4-7
8: 2-4
9: 1-7-8

3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-7-9
7: 4-7
8: 2-4-8-9
9: 1-3-7-8

3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48