Flying to Fort Lauderdale as I write this for 2+ weeks of ATR live from Gulfstream Park ahead of Sunshine Millions/Eclipse Award and Holy Bull Weekends. $231k Santa Anita double carryover beckons first however, on another interesting sequence featuring 3 particularly difficult races and 3 with very clear options. In and out day Saturday with hits too isolated for profitability. Hope everyone did OK.

SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

As discussed with Sadler on ATR and tweeted Friday, big story horse here is debuting Demonic who has tongues wagging at Clocker’s Corner. Anything less than a professional win with accompanying solid fig will be viewed as a disappointment..

Most Likely: #8 Demonic 5-2 (A) WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Tiz the Truth 4-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Battled 3-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #6 Del Mar Sunset 4-1 (X) 3rd

5th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

First of the 3 deep and danger-fraught tests..

Most Likely: #4 Exclusive Story 5-2 (A) 7th
Next Best: #7 Sultry Season 3-1 (A) WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #5 Sense of a Woman 8-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 No Name Needed 9-2 (C) 8th
Super Add: #8 Cavalla 6-1 (C) 5th

<$60 P4/P5 Plays:

1: 2-5-6-7-8
2: 1-3-5-9
3: 1-2-7
4: 8
5: 4-7 (5-6-8)

P5: 5x4x3x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
P4: 4x3x1x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tough downhill heat for maiden missies with several coming back for all-important 2nd career start. Nicegirlsfnishlast exits productive debut that saw her chase Stute’s Papa Clem sis Escape Act. Keeps Bejarano who must negotiate the tricky inside post on this course. After that, 4-7-8-9 all look obvious. Note that AE What a Spot (Arch) from Proctor is a half to Coil (Point Given) but morning machinations indicate he’s a down-the-road type..

Most Likely: #1 NICEGIRLSFNISHLAST 9-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #8 Poster Girl 9-2 (B) 5th
Best Value: #7 Majestic Jewel 8-1 (C) WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Devious Chic 4-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #9 Oceans of Money 9-2 (C) 2nd

7th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Arresting Officer 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mark of a Warrior 8-1 (B) 9th
Next Best: #7 Chinese Praise 3-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Hidden Blessing 7-2 (B) WON ($13.60)

“C’s”: #2 Afleet Deal 12-1 8th; #12 Cahill Report 10-1 6th (C’s)

8th: 66th San Gabriel (G2), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Slim Shadey 2-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #7 Jeranimo 9-5 (A) WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Juniper Pass (C) 4th
Super Add: #6 Chosen Miracle 3-1 (C) 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

$27k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #10 Rader the Rat 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #7 Duke King Street 5-1 (A) 8th
Next Best: #3 Got Heem 4-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Silk Indian 9-2 (B) 2nd

“C’s”: #2 Collation 6-1 WON ($38.40); #5 Great Friends Rule 5-1 3rd; #8 Streamofsteam 30-1 10th (C)

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 8
5: 4-5-7
6: 1
7: 4-5-6-7
8: 4-7
9: 3-4-7-10

1x3x1x4x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-8
7: 2-4-5-6-7-8-12
8: 4-7
9: 3-4-7-10 (2-5-8)

2x7x2x4 = 112 x .50 = $56 (Wide nightcap 2x7x2x7 = 196 x .50 = $98)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T/12′ (P6, P3, DD)

In typical GP morning line fashion, Middleburg will end up around 4-1. Everyone seems to have landed on the Firestone/Clements half to Winchester. Note that the fence is at 12′ for this, a positioning that aides inside horses tremendously..

Most Likely: #2 Middleburg 10-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Comancheria 20-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Sweet Mike 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 All Alex 3-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Move Over 9-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Starship Titan 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Trip N Run 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 My Daddy’s Dollars 6-1 6th

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T/84′ (P4, P3, DD)

Which Market is favored from the 12 hole and though I suppose he can win, a short number is wholly unappealling with a glut of other options available. Exothermic another 10-1 line that won’t hold up..

Most Likely: #3 Exclusive Strike 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Exothermic 10-1 9th
Best Value: #9 Minnie Punt 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Forward March 6-1 WON ($18.20)

.50 TRI: 3-5 with 2-3-5-9 with 2-3-5-9-12 (2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12)

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bliss 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Biorhythm 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Dixie Hot Shot 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Calistoga 4-1 WON ($11.00)

10th: 58th Fort Lauderdale (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T/12′ (DD)

Terrific assembly. Yes Nikki’s Sandcastle (5-1) is facing best cast yet, but he’s as good as he’ll ever be and already has shown a liking for this strip. Can adjust to any pace and saves all the ground doing so. Sticking with the hot hand. And look, Sky Blazer is the magic 10-1 ML that will be half that price by post time!

Most Likely: #2 Nikki’s Sandcastle 5-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Sky Blazer 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Big Blue Kitten 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vertiformer 12-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-T/84′ (Super Hi-5)

Non-descript bunch but can’t help noting that Livingston Swagger hails from Alydar (!) mare Aly Sweet who was 19yo when she dropped this chestnut for the Palmers. While it’s rare to see too many Alydar mares in the PP’s, what’s worth relating is that Aly Sweet herself was the first product out of Mel Stute’s remarkable 1987 BC Sprint heroine Very Subtle!

Most Likely: #1 Backseat Memories 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #8 Demographic Trend 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Ride l’Ultimo 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #3 Fluent 6-1 6th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-6
8: 3-5
9: 8
10: 1-2-5-6-7-8
11: 1-3-4-8

2x2x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5-9-10-12
9: 8
10: 1-2-5-6-7-8
11: 1-3-4-8

6x1x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tizmetizyou 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Iconic Spirit 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Now Hope 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mezzanote 9-2 6th

2nd: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Next Best: #5 Run Captive Run 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 My Devilish Diva 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Firendesire 4-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

No shortage of front-end intended parties here..

Most Likely: #4 Cyclometer 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Chapman’s Peak 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Midnight Transfer 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Castletown 5-2 3rd

4th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$48k P6 C/O starts here..

Very tricky start to the P6 with a downhill event that sees some of the top choices coming in with shaky form. Anxious to see if #12 (AE) Cayambe (7-2) gets into the field because the 9yo veteran is on that fills the bill as a lean..

Most Likely: #12 (AE) SCR
Best Value: #1 Batti Man 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Cherokee Heaven 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Red Defense 6-1 8th

5th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

2nd half of split event with R2 and the tougher looking of the pair with some good working firsters lining up..

Best Value: #5 Alissa G 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Miss Judged 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Avery’s Arabesque 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Mind Your Biznes 5-1 8th

<$75 P4/P5 Plays:

1: 2-5-6-7
2: 5–8/SCR
3: 2-4-7
4: 1-6-12/SCR (1-5-6 if 12 not in)
5: 5-9 (8-10)

P5: 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4: 2x3x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group of boys with plenty of attractive pedigrees going the flat lawn mile. How about the Lure mare mentioned to Doug O’Neill that dropped his Persuasive Paul? I noted the Alydar mare at Gulfstream, well there’s an Affirmed mare involved here with Checkerspot as the dam of 30-1 Affirmed Arch who looks like a down the road the type. Lord of Ballandrae finally draws in to a race and as a half to ill-fated Sailor’s Cap, has a license to be A-OK in this setting..

Best Value: #2 Dry Gulcher 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Wine List 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Persuasive Paul 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #12 Lord of Ballandrae 6-1 11th

7th: 61st San Fernando (G2), 4yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Wow.. What a nicely matched group: Baffert’s 4 against Shirreffs, Drysdale, Harty, O’Neill, Hollendorfer & Asmussen. Tribal Jewel got meet off to a bang for me and I’m hard-pressed to argue with him at what figures to be higher than the 6-1 ML. Will by-pass the 3 ML faves and swing for the fences here..

Best Value: #9 Tribal Jewel 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Guilt Trip 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mile High Magic 8-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Tritap 10-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Yikes! This set couldn’t be tighter..

Best Value: #11 Cat Talk 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Next Best: #4 No Silent 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Gab Power 10-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Royal F J 7th

9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Nonrefundable 7-2 11th
Best Value: #7 Generations 8-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Key Reversal 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Et Tu Walker 5-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 12 (1 if 12 not in)
5: 5-9
6: 2-8-10
7: 5-9
8: 3-4-11
9: 2-7

1x2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-8-10
7: 5-9
8: 3-4-11
9: 2-4-6-7-13

3x2x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

To send Tony a get well card or any kind of note (Collar bone surgery Friday):

Tony Black
433 Maple Ave.
Westmont, NJ 08108

 

SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Nospeightintended 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #9 Bromelia 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Corinthian Melody 9-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Miss Malibu 4-1 3rd

4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Roar Baby Roar 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #6 Hout Bay 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Town Belle 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Appealling Resume 6-1 2nd

5th: MDN CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 San Savino 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Doubledown On Ten 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 An Shanachie 2-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #1 Bull Time 9-2 5th

6th: S/ALW, 3yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 He’s Not Too Shabby 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Derringer 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Hunger 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Sacred Ovation 4-1 4th

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Unusual Beam 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Motown Men 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Unusual Jazz 5-2 WON ($6.80)

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Pastoria 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Warren’s Gussie 9-2 WON ($18.00)
Next Best: #6 Madelineispickin 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 My Yammy Heat 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7-12
6: 2-3-4-7
7: 2-5-7
8: 4-5-6

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

To send Tony a get well card or any kind of note (Collar bone surgery Friday):

Tony Black
433 Maple Ave.
Westmont, NJ 08108

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Funny Belle 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Toomanytomatoes 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Belle Passe 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #5 Madoffwiththemoney 5-1 5th

6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Tribal Custom 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Tribal Gal 4-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #2 Pine Walk 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Funny Gal 5-2 3rd

7th: OC/C, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Weather appears to have held out enough to keep this good group on the lawn. As discussed with Doug O’Neill this morning on ATR, Willyconker is the horse to beat, but this is a rock solid cast boasting 8 horses with 33 wins combined..

Most Likely: #5 Willyconker 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Hoorayforhollywood 4-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Key Decision 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Red Sun 7-2 6th

8th:MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 1m (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Pure Blush 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Unusual Darling 6-1 DNF-Eased
Next Best: #10 Lady Comic 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Holiday Rose 6-1 WON ($25.20)
Super/Hi-5: #2 Mending Wall 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-5-10
6: 1-2-5-6
7: 1-4-5
8: 1-3-10

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3to, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$100k Double C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Bolt Action 7-2 (A)
Next Best: #3 Big Foot Ben 5-2 (B)
Exotics Use: #1e Shadwell entry 2-1 (C)

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 She’s Gosphel 3-5 (A)
Next Best: #4 Our Mary Elizabeth 5-1 (B)
Best Value: #7 Tattoo Me 15-1 (C)
Exotics Use: #6 Darn That Trip 6-1 (C)

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

One of those dangerous state bred MCLM’s where the heavy fave is utterly shaky..

Best Value: #4 Monterey Drive 15-1 (A)
Next Best: #7 Rambling 6-1 (A)
Exotics Use: #6 Paddy Knuckles 4-1 (B)
Super Add: #1 Sunrise Lover 7-2 (C)

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Terrific race..

Most Likely: #5 Bomber Boy 5-2 (A)
Best Value: #10 This Hard Land 12-1 (B)
Next Best: #9 Rein King 4-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #6 Photon 3-1 (B)

“C’s”: #4 Chairman Now 6-1; #8 New Yawker 5-1

8th: Cat Cay, 4yo-F, 1m-70y (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Moon Philly 4-1 (A)
Next Best: #3 Sunny Desert 9-5 (B)

9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f

Here we are again with a field of suspects..

Best Value: #2 Eva Lil 20-1 (A)
Next Best: #5 Nine Cracks 7-2 (A)
Exotics Use: #9 Swift Taylor 5-2 (B)
Super Add: #8 Azasecret 2-1 (C)

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4
5: 1-4
6: 4-7
7: 5
8: 3-4
9: 2-5-9

3x2x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-6-7
7: 5-6-9-10
8: 3-4
9: 2-5-9

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Can Stevens win in first mount back? Seems far-fetched on paper and it sounded during Gary’s ATR visit Friday that they were hoping the race was going to wash off the turf..

Most Likely: #4 SCR
Next Best: #5 Jimmy Simms 7-2
Best Value: #1 Maybe Tuesday 9-2
Exotics Use: #2 Deacon Speakin’ 5-1

7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Luckarack 3-1
Best Value: #9 Coo Cachoo 6-1
Next Best: #8 Hardtap 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Kate’s Event 6-1

8th: 46th Monrovia (G2), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Mizdirection 6-5
Next Best: #2 Byrama 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Kindle 5-2
Super Add: #5 Broken Dreams 7-2

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Monarcha Blanca 15-1
Next Best: #8 California Roll 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Lovely 4-1
Super Add: #10 Lovely Sophia 20-1
Hi-5 Play: #7 Vonn Nez 4-1

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-5
7: 3-8-9
8: 2-6
9: 3-4-8-10

4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve