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Sunland, Gulfstream top Sunday action

Sunday, March 24th, 2013

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/36′ (P6, P3, DD)

$1,239,846 Jackpot Rainbow 6 starts here..

Ultimate Class stretches out in first start for Tomlinson which could produce a pace tussle with consistent fave Brandys Secret. Deanaallen’skitten and Lemons to Lemonade would benefit from a duel while Starship Pleasant (15-1) may sit a dream trip behind stalking the leaders..

Most Likely: #3 Brandys Secret 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Deanaallen’skitten 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Lemons to Lemonade 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Peekablue Sue 8-1 4th

7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Saratoga Blitz 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Ariel’s Bay 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #7 Starship Cutie 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Pure Sunshine 8-1 8th

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T/96′ (P4, P3, DD)

Quite a bit of speed involved here..

Best Value: #1 Foolish Tiger 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mister Pippit 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Awesome Attack 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Purest Form 6-1 WON ($10.60)

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

KMc’s Sister State found Close Hatches in debut. Miss Moonshine stumbled at break last off good 2nd start start. Mott unviels yet another well meant 3yo filly in $775k yearling Profetiza..

Most Likely: #6 Sister State 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Miss Moonshine 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Profetiza 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Diva Spirit 15-1 WON ($61.80)

10th: OC/N2X, 4+, 5f-T/36′ (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Fast Time 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sneaking Uponyou 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Wicked Tune 6-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Silver Cloud 7-2 4th

11th: MDN CLM ($35k), 3+, 8.5f-T/96′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Pack Leader 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Quiet Danger 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #6 Myles 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Turkish 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #7 Canadian Flag 7-2 6th

<$30 P6 Play:

6: 1-3-8
7: 3-7-9
8: 1-2-3-6
9: 6
10: 1-3-4-8
11: 4-9

3x3x4x1x4x2 = 288 x .10 = $28.80

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 3-7-9
8: 1-2-3-6
9: 6
10: 1-3-4-8
11: 4-9

3x4x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 5 (3/6/7/1/4) Paid $46.20 (4OF5)

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3
9: 2-6
10: 1-3-4-8
11: 3-4-6-7-9

3x2x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

SUNLAND PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Bill Thomas Memorial, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Safe Trip 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Gregor 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Isn’t He Clever 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Warren’s Knockout 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Dollarwaitnonadime 5-1 3rd

9th: New Mexico Breeder’s Derby-NM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Hush’s Storm 5-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #6 Storms Surprise 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Devons Ca Ching 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Keagan’s Way 6-1 3rd

10th: Sunland Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

5-2 on Midnight Lucky is the cutest ML ever..

Most Likely: #5 Midnight Lucky 5-2 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #3 Majestic River 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Unusual Way 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Countess Curlin 5-1 3rd

11th: Sunland Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Baffert’s Governor Charlie & Shakin It Up and O’Neill’s Mudflats have clear edge on the rest here..

Most Likely: #7 Governor Charlie 6-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #8 Mudflats 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Shakin It Up 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Dry Summer 5-1

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-5-8
9: 6-8-9-10
10: 5
11: 4-7-8

5x4x1x3 = 60 x .50 = $30

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/10/5/7) Paid $52.50

Carryovers, Turfway Stakes highlight Saturday

Saturday, March 23rd, 2013

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T/36′ (P6, P3, DD)

$1,120,613 Jackpot Rainbow 6 starts here..

Wide open start to the 6..

Best Value: #10 Sweet Kate 10-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Secret Jewel 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bella Castani 20-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #9 Vita Vittoria 4-1 8th

7th: MDN CLM ($25k), 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Pearl de Vere 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 One Tough Cowgirl 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Kind of Wonderful 12-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Music N Songs 4-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/36′ (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Regatta 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Street Secret 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Sure Route 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Dame Marie 8-1 4th

9th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Affair 3-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Poised to a Tee 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #7 Anillo 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Prima Zip 6-1 4th

10th: 54th Pan American (F2), 4+, 12f-T/96′ (DD)

Interesting lineup for this with no shortage of pace factors in Teaks North, Ioya Bigtime, Twilight Eclipse and perhaps Belo Acteon. As discussed with Mike Welsch yesterday, I’m looking to get the roulette peg to frop into the slot of hard-trying Empire Builder. May be over-matched but we’ll get paid if right..

Best Value: #8 Empire Builder 15-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Newsdad 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mucho Mas Macho 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Ioya Bigtime 6-1 2nd

11th: MDN CLM ($35k), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/36′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Snit Fit 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Ceci N Red 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #3 Lovely Dynaformer 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Ely Runner 20-1 10th

<$30 P6 Play:

6: 6-7-9-10
7: 1-5-8
8: 6-7
9: 2-7-10
10: 8-10
11: 1-2

4x3x2x3x2x2 = 288 x .10 = $28.80

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-8
8: 6-7
9: 1-2-7-10
10: 8-10
11: 1-2

3x2x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-7-8
9: 1-2-7-10
10: 4-8-10
11: 1-2-3

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

TURFWAY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Impassable Canyon 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #2 Sir Squire 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Mal Guapo 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Holy Moses 10-1 5th

8th: Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Red Wings 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Crop Report 4-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #5 J. J. Got Even 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Divine Ambition 9-2 2nd

9th: Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Tremendous betting race with Pure Fun guaranteed to be a crazy underlay..

Most Likely: #12 Awesome Mama 12-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Street of Gold 30-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Pure Fun 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Miss Squeal 15-1 5th

10th: Spiral (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Another bet-against opportunity with high profile players ML choices Balance the Books (7-2), Uncaptured (3-1) & Capo Bastone (9-2) sure to draw too much money. My Name is Michael (10-1), Mac the Man (10-1), General Election (12-1) & Giant Finish (15-1) are all as likely here as the favored set..

Most Likely: #5 My Name is Michael 10-1 8th
Best Value: #8 General Election 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Mac the Man 10-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Balance the Books 7-2 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6
8: 1-5-9
9: 1-3-5-10-12
10: 1-4-5-7-8

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$192k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Baby Blake 2-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cloud Top 4-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #1 My Samurai Warrior 5-2 (B) WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #3 Crimson Giant 8-1 (C) 6th

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Outstanding looking cast for this early spring 3yo Maiden test. Pure Loyalty (ran into Governor Charlie & Treasury Bill), Zee Bros (2nd to Salutos Amigos) and the trio of Airfoil, Tenkiller Kid & Master Appeal (behind Summer Exclusive) all have bona fides here. Baffert firster Declassify has to contend with tricky post for seven-eigths, but is working beautifully and appears well meant. Unusual to get such a superb assembly with so much upside at this point in the season..

Most Likely: #8 Zee Bros 9-5 (A) WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #7 Master Appeal 3-1 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Pure Loyalty 4-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #6 Tenkiller Kid 6-1 (C) 5th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Charm Catcher 5-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #2 Wednesday 3-1 (A) WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Devious Chic 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Dance Team 3-1 (C) 2nd

7th: 15th Tokyo City (G3), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

Tricky rendition of this marathon..

Best Value: #2 Sky Kingdom 9-2 (A) WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #6 Calidoscopio 7-2 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Dhaamer 5-2 (B) 5th

“C’s”: #4 Oilisblackgold 7-2 2nd; #5 Richard’s Kid 9-2 3rd (C)

8th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Hard to argue with remarkable late bloomer Mr. Bossy Pants (2-1), but there are another 3-4 here that are within striking distance and enough pace types to keep the favorite honest..

Best Value: #6 Atticus Jack 6-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Mr. Bossy Pants 2-1 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Drift King 4-1 (C) WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #4 Lamm 4-1 (C) 6th

9th: MDN CLM ($30k), 3yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

$28,825 Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Tricky ending to sequences but Top Tizzy looks prime making dirt bow in this spot in first try for highly capable conditioner in Kory Owens..

Best Value: #7 TOP TIZZY 8-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Jawbreaker 3-1 (B) WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Going Back to Cali 5-2 (C) 3rd
Super Add: #6 Jiggin’ With M K R 5-1 (C) 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4
5: 7-8
6: 2-6
7: 2-6-8
8: 6-8
9: 7

3x2x2x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 2-4-5-6-8
8: 6-8
9: 1-5-6-7-9

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Small AQU C/O, good SA sequence Thursday

Thursday, March 21st, 2013
AQUEDUCTPOST-SCRATCHES4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$15k P6 C/O starts here..

Very tricky start to the P6 sequence with sackful of in-n-out types. Superstitious Love is 2 lengths faster than the rest of the field early and has potential to be loose and steal it..

Best Value: #5 Superstitious Love 5-1 WON ($9.90)
Next Best: #1 Smarty Bull 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Salvar 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Born Flirt 12-1 DNF-Clipped heels, lost rider

5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 B Shanny 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Cat in the Forest 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Hackleton 3-1 WON ($7.20)

6th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Not sure what the appeal of Dynamic Host is at the short price..

Most Likely: #2 Best Actor 6-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Metaurus 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Dynamic Host 8-5 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Drink With Pride 5-2 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Going to be interesting to see who makes the lead. Group has potential to get spirited up front but also for riders to look at each other out of the gate. Channing Hill gets to survey everything from outside and react accordingly..

Most Likely: #8 Verbosity 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Isn’tlovejustgrand 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Obviously Tuesday 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Toque 8-1 2nd

8th: Compelling Word-NY, 4+, 1m (DD)

Pretty fun group with 35 wins — half by Saginaw — between them..

Most Likely: #1 Saginaw 7-5 WON-DH ($2.70)
Next Best: #4 Johannesburg Smile 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Socialsaul 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Mine Over Matter 5-1 4th

9th: NY-MDN CLM ($16k), F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #7 Westerday 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #8 Ms. True Way 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Gracie Too 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Baal Perazim 12-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-7
5: 5
6: 2-4-8
7: 8
8: 1-4
9: 4-5-7-8

3x1x3x1x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-5-6-8
7: 8
8: 1-2-4
9: 4-5-7-8

6x1x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wittgenstein 7-2 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #5 Sweet Red Cat 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Incredible Journey 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Branding 5-2 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: ALL (4-$20.40)
6: 1-2-5-6
7: 5 ($5.40)
8: 1-4-7

8x4x1x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

Fun card to start race week at Gulfstream

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$898,575 Rainbow 6 Jackpot..

Most Likely: #2 Bear’s Spirit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Assimilation 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sorgho 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Legal Power 4-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T/36′ (P5, P3, DD)

Nicely matched set..

Most Likely: #11 Arion Silver 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Over and Back 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Midnight Notes 4-1WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Scofield 5-1 5th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Time Counts 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #10 Party Hardy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Mine Own 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Talavista 12-1 4th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 5f-T/36′ (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Off the Page 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Desire to Acquire 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Party Lad 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Rip Roarin Ritchie 5-2 WON ($10.20)

9th: CLM, 4+, 1m (DD)

If Best Glacier returns to race he ran this level 2/8, he wins. If that doesn’t happen — and there isn’t an abundance of speed to set him up — this gets wide open..

Most Likely: #4 The Best Glacier 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Rock Alex 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Isutalkintome 5-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Ghostwalking 8-1 8th

10th: MDN CLM ($75k), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/96′ (Super Hi-5)

Like most pricey maiden claimers on the lawn, this has threats lurking all over the place. Think this may be more complicated than it looks. And be aware that Chad Brown has #13 (AE) Sapphire Blue (5-1) poised to draw in..

Most Likely: #9 Corinthianna 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Who’s Mary’s Daddy 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Hidden Music 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Judy G 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #13 Sapphire Blue 5-1 9th

<$30 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-6-9
6: 10-11
7: 8
8: 2-7
9: 3-4-6
10: 4-5-8-9-10-13

4x2x1x2x3x6 = 288 x .10 = $28.80

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 10-11
7: 8-10
8: 1-2-3-7
9: 4
10: 4-5-8-9-10-13

2x2x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-10
8: 1-2-3-7
9: 3-4-6
10: 4-5-8-9-10-13

2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Back to GP off frustrating Saturday

Sunday, March 17th, 2013

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/48′ (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Geisha Girl 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #7 Cry War Eagle 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Spooky Kitten 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Bourbonstreetgirl 20-1 8th

6th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T/108′ (P6, P3, DD)

$811,206 Rainbow 6 Jackpot starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Affair 4-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Visionandaprayer 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Core Inflation 5-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Ravin About Richie 6-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Momentary Magic 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Arabian Dream 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Double Gelato 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Nellie Cashman 12-1 4th

8th: MDN CLM ($75k), 3yo, 8.5f-T/48′ (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Sweet Daddy D 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Matagot 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Piceance 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #6 Two Term Leader 6-1 6th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 River Rocks 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Looking Cool 12-1 WON ($22.80)
Next Best: #4 Duke of the City 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 G. T. Tabu 12-1 6th

10th: Inside Information (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (DD)

One of the 4 Marty Wolfson runners is likely to come out..

Most Likely: #8 Golden Mystery 5-2 10th
Next Best: #10 Starship Truffles 6-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Ice Cream Silence 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Spectacular Sky 6-1 2nd

11th: MDN CLM ($75k), 3yo, 8.5f-T/108′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Summer Shiner 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Posse Attack 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 More Hundred Acre 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Willies Grand Slam 10-1 10th

<$15 P6 Play:

6: 6-7-9-10
7: 6
8: 2-3-6-7-9-10
9: 6
10: 8-10
11: 2-4-6

4x1x6x1x2x3 =144 x .10 = $14.40

<$25 P5 Play:

7: 6
8: 2-3-6-7-9-10
9: 6
10: 8-10
11: 2-4-6-9

1x6x1x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-6-7-9-10
9: 4-6-7
10: 8-10
11: 2-4-6-9

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72