BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Eddy’s Time 2-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Talmadge Hill 5-2 (A) WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #9 Risky Predicament 12-1 (C) –
Exotics Use: #2 Scribbling Sarah 4-1 (C) 3rd

6th: MDN CLM ($16k), F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Queen Nine 2-1 (A) WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #3 Rettalfa 8-5 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Rock Show 5-1 (B) 4th
Super Add: #7 Princes In Thelake 12-1 (C) –

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Big Deluxe 4-1 (A) WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #11 Sunbio 6-5 (B) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hengroen 8-1 (C) –
Exotics Use: #3 Midnight Monarch 12-1 (X) 3rd

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Victoryat Last 12-1 (A) –
Next Best: #9 Ballistic Sue 8-5 (A) WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Kiki Chacer 5-1 (B) –
Super Add: #1 She’s Gosphel 6-1 (C) 2nd

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Subtle 5-2 (A) –
Next Best: #6 Mah Jong Madddnes 4-1 (B) WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Ornellia 2-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #5 Belongs to Dixie 6-1 (C) 4th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Best Value: #8 My Donna Jean 6-1 (A) –
Next Best: #1 Caution Sign 3-1 (A) WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Veturia 5-2 (B) –
Super Add: #4 Appealetta 8-1 (C) 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4-8
6: 3-6
7: 5
8: 3-8-9
9: 4-6-8
10: 1-8

2x2x1x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (8/6/5/6,9,11,12/6/1) Paid $2,396.00
$2 Pick 6 (8/6/5/6,9,11,12/6/1) Paid $38.60 (5OF6) x 7 = $270.20

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-11
8: 3-8-9
9: 4-5-6-8
10: 1-3-4-8

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/6,9,11,12/6/1) Paid $56.12

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$21,617 C/O starts here..

Killer opener and obvious players may not be enough to get you through first leg of sequence. Even monster price candidates Lemansky, Jonrah & Greeley’s Law need to be looked at long and hard..

Best Value: #7 Mr Cowboy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Dehere of the Cat 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Lemansky 20-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Iron Lou 7-2 10th

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Think for P6 purposes you need to believe the Mariena will get it done and single..

Most Likely: #9 Distorted Dream 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Oldwick 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Mongol Boss 4-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Able Baker Charlie 12-1 4th

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Gentle Jim 20-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Mobridge 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Seljuk 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Knock Quietly 7-2 WON ($9.70)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Tazered 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Longhunter 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Hewitts 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Alcomatch 6-1 2nd

9th: 85th Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Big Screen 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Most Likely: #3 Go the Distance 2-1 –
Best Value: #5 My Uptown Girl 10-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Quintile 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Southside Sis 6-1 –

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-7-8-11-12
6: 9
7: 4-6-10
8: 2-9
9: 7
10: 3-5

6x1x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-10
8: 2-7-9-10
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-3-5-7

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Have not had much chance to dig in at Keeneland this spring, but heading there this afternoon for nice feature as meet draws towards its’ conclusion..

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Deep starter group of soph fillies. May need nearly half of them to get through first leg of the quintet..

Most Likely: #9 Excessiveness 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #6 Electro Peg 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Exotic Mischief 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 The Business 8-1 2nd

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Discussed this heat with LoPresti Tuesday with his Mingun mare Gunforhome returning as a 5yo. Well matched group where separating those with upside from career wheel-spinners is the key. For instance, has the light come on for Flower Mart?

Most Likely: #6 Prissy 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #3 Flower Mart 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Cry War Eagle 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 North by Northlite 4-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Ooof.. What to make of these? Key to the late PX’s with firsters and second timers making it nearly impossible to take a hold with confidence. When Shug starts them at 6f, he’s getting in a start. When he opens them at 7f, they generally run well. Developer added a blowout oover the strip Wednesday and at 8-1 he’s worth keying up and down..

Most Likely: #5 Developer 8-1 WON ($26.00)
Next Best: #11 Coaches Favorite 6-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Leadem in Ken 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Wind of Bosphorus 3-1 5th

8th: 52nd Bewitch (G3), F&M-4+, 12f-T (DD)

Predictably nice set..

Most Likely: #8 Scampering 9-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Alaura Michele 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Regalo Mia 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gathering 3-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Kissable 6-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Hard to argue with viability of 6-5 Ramsey entry (Ward/Maker), but there are a few here well within range at attractive numbers. Not so cut & dry despite dominance of the record-smashing meet leaders..

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Arch of Titus 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Responsive Eye 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Zane 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Impetuous Power 15-1 5th

$1 Super High Five (1-2-4-5-10) $1,212.60

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 6-9-11
6: 1-3-6-8
7: 5
8: 2-4-5-8-9
9: 1-4

3x4x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

$0.50 Pick 5 (1/7/9/10-6-5-11-1/8) $16.70 x 5 = $83.50 (4 correct)

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6-8
7: 2-5-11
8: 2-4-5-8-9
9: 1-4-5

4x3x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Jagger M 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Early Success 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Silver Value 2-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 This Ones for Tony 8-1 6th

3rd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tough start to early P5 with 5 second time starters and host of other candidates including stretchouts and surface movers. Ten Indian (15-1), by good synth sire Speightstown, is half to poly pro Prince Teton who is in mindst of a 5 race win streak having terrorized $5k starters at Turfway this winter. Jet Force (Candy Ride) another 2nd timer and full brother to hard knocking and versatile Clubhouse Ride..

Most Likely: #8 Apex 3-1 11th
Best Value: #3 Ten Indian 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Bellarmine 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Jet Force 20-1 7th

4th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Faves are fine but well drawn Cavalero and Tetradrachm are juicy numbers..

Best Value: #2 Cavalero 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Tetradrachm 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Imagining 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Treasury Devil 7-2 7th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Every horse is different when it comes to adapting to the poly, but watch MSW 3rd race with Apex, Jet Force and Steel Dust Dancer for clues to Red Rifle here. Meanwhile, under radar Adena sire Silent Name gets poly poppers and if Leparoux can work out a trip from the #11 hole, Pyrite Mountain (6-1) can win here. Dallas Stewart had been trying to get Fipke homebred Perfect Title on the lawn in NoLa and KEE main is the next best thing..

Best Value: #11 Pyrite Mountain 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Red Rifle 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Perfect Title 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Eton Blue 5-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-8
3: 3-5-8
4: 2-3-5-6
5: 2-7-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5/5/10) Paid $81.60

6th: 27th Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Short field and a bit of curiousity with all but Bernie the Maestro (won here) and Handsome Mike (4/0-0-1 at TP, HOL, FF) new to synthetic strip. Gantry figures to get lead and perhaps rather easily if Bernie the Maestro doesn’t press the issue..

Most Likely: #5 Bernie the Maestro 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Handsome Mike 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #1 Gantry 5-2

7th: 17th Shakertown (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Perfect Officer won this last year off similar break..

Most Likely: #8 Perfect Officer 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Next Question 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Hogy 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Something Extra 9-2 2nd

<$75 P5 Play:

3: 3-5-8
4: 2-3-5-6
5: 10-11
6: 1-5-6
7: 6-8

3x4x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 5 (5/5/10/6/5) Paid $14.65 (4OF5) x 2 = $29.30

8th: 12th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Groupie Doll’s win here last year, as well as that of Informed Decision (’09) and Ventura (’08), will stretch its’ G1 status, but this hodge podge edition is more like those of Shotgun Gulch (’11) and Dr. Zic (’10)..

Most Likely: #10 Fantasy of Flight 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Drama Drama 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Byrama 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jamaican Smoke 5-1 3rd

9th: 25th Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

This nice group makes up for the Madison. Daisy Devine broke through in this event a year ago and can certainly defend, but expect she’ll get more pressure than she did there when allowed a 25-50-1:15 opening three quarters. Centre Court figures to get ideal pounce position..

Most Likely: #1 Centre Court 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #8 Daisy Devine 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Abaco 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Samitar 7-2 3rd

10th: 89th Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Utterly inscrutable gathering where no combination of superfecta players would be questioned. Of the favorites, feels like McPeek and Java’s War is the most embraceable and after that it’s a free for all. I’ll use Tesseron (ridiculous 50-1), Footbridge (20-1), Undrafted (10-1) and Dynamic Sky (10-1) with him..

Most Likely: #4 Java’s War 4-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #9 Tesseron 50-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Dynamic Sky 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Undrafted 10-1 13th
Super Add: #10 Footbridge 20-1 14th

<$100 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 1-3-6-8-10
9: 1-6-7-8
10: 1-3-4-9-10

2x5x4x5 = 200 x .50 = $100

11th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Not sure what to do with 10-1 Mezzano who tries the synthetic and gets Rosario..

Most Likely: #1 Dubious Miss 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Street Serenade 15-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Workin for Hops 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mezzano 10-1 WON ($6.20)

.10 SUPER: Key 1 in 1st/2nd with 2-5-6-7-9 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

12th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Rafaelini 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Katouni 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Abbey Street 9-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Mizz Krizten 12-1 8th

<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-3-6-8-10
9: 1-8
10: 1-3-4-9-10
11: 1-5
12: 1

5x2x5x2x1 = 100 x .50 = $50

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-6-7-8
10: 1-4-9
11: 1-2-5-9
12: 1-3-6

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAKLAWN PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: 16th Northern Spur, 3yo, 1m (P4)

Have tried fruitlessly to nail P4 at OP the last three days and have final shot here..

Most Likely: #6 Looking Cool 5-2: Nafzger considered Derby before opting.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Get Happy Mister 6-1: Colorado bred (!) has chance to wire.. WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Bemata 8-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Red Wings 8-1 3rd

8th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3)

Most Likely: #9 Fort Larned 7-5: Classic hero lucky to avoid injury at GP.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Alternation 9-2: Wide and too bad to believe in Razorback.. 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Cyber Secret 5-1: Tremendous winter for him, Whiting.. WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #4 Atigun 9-2: Consistent hard-hitter gets blinks, Bejarano.. 7th

9th: 40th Count Fleet (G3), 3+, 6f (P4)

Good edition of this with lots of pressers but no ‘speed of the speed’..

Most Likely: #4 Laurie’s Rocket 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Justin Phillip 7-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Outta Tune 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Flashpoint 7-2 6th

10th: 77th Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3)

To me, 2nd choice Oxbow (5-2) the clear horse to beat, so there can be value out there if you stand against 1st/3rd ML choices War Academy (2-1) or Overanalyze (4-1)..

Most Likely: #10 Oxbow 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Falling Sky 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Overanalyze 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Den’s Legacy 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-6
8: 9
9: 1-3-4-5-8
10: 2-4-5-8-9-10

5x1x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Kipling’s Joy 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Remember Then 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Kimberly Jean 2-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Alydorable 7-2 2nd

5th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Wow.. Why not add $11k to the purse and make it an overnight stake? Terrific group. Not a lot of front-end interest here. New Wave will have every opportunity to wire if left alone for any length of time..

Most Likely: #1e Augustin entry 3-1 WON/7th ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Eagle Hall 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Sea Island 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Preferential 6-1 6th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Biorhythm 8-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #11 Flak 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Waverly Place 8-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Vice Dancer 5-1 4th

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Very nice group. Plenty of upside yet for these soph gals. #5 Derby Eve (20-1) is the full sister of Colonel John and her first start as a 3yo could be charm. Obviously could have started on dirt at OP any time last few weeks, but Harty waited for this spot..

Most Likely: #10 Magnolia Lane 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Derby Eve 20-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Flores Island 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Warm Breeze 5-1 11th
Super Add: #8 Celtic Arch 4-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Casino Dan 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Voodoo Doctor 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Reload 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Seve 5-1 3rd

9th: Maker’s 46 Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Wise Dan began his Horse of the Year campaign in ’12 Ben Ali off similar break and was spectacular earning a 117 Beyer. Faces short but accomplished field here and while not unbeatable off bench, does own a pace edge. Looks for double with his half brother above..

Most Likely: #5 Wise Dan 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Silentio 9-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Data Link 3-1 2nd

10th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Got No Answers 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Miss Ziggy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Added Delight 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Tanasi 6-1 2nd

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 8-9-11
7: 1-5-10
8: 5-7-8-12
9: 5
10: 5-6-9-11

3x3x4x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

@$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-8-10-11
8: 5-7-8-12
9: 1-5
10: 5-6-9-11

5x4x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4)

Most Likely: #3 Indian Alley 7-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Cheer for Foxes 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Little Miss Fitz 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Devil’s Blush 5-1 3rd

9th: Instant Racing, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, .10 Super)

Best Value: #2 Awesome Mama 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 American Sugar 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lady Stonewall 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Boss Barney’s Babe 9-2 2nd

10th: Apple Blossom H. (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, .10 Super)

Best Value: #3 Don’t Tell Sophia 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Grace Hall 9-5 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Summer Applause 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Tiz Miz Sue 4-1 2nd

11th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (.10 Super)

Most Likely: #5 Only in America 9-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Betweenhereandcool 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #10 Illusion Confusion 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Seeking an Empire 4-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-5-8-10
9: 1-2-3
10: 2-3
11: 5-9-10-11

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72