BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Corma Ray-NY, 4+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Be Bullish 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Mine Over Matter 5-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Fiddlers Afleet 3-1 3rd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Gritty Gal 5-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #5 So Blessed 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Hold It 8-1 6th

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Much Stronger 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Risk Factor 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Tenango 5-2 WON ($8.00)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Escrow Kid 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Christiesborntorun 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Reload 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Sam Sparkle 5-1 7th

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #13 Ultimate Empire 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #10 Outcome 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Go Giant Bry Go 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Retired 8-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 5-8-9
7: 4-6-8
8: 4-6-10-11
9: 10-13

3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 Pick 4 (2,6,7,9,11,12/8/1,2,3,6,7/3,5,6,8,9,11,13) Paid $18.75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

LoPresti ‘only’ 5 for 11 (+$5.20) on stretchouts. 10-1? Wishful thinking..

Best Value: #6 New Moon On Monday 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Pedestrian 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 So Do Prayers 7-2 6th
Super Add: #7 Hitechnoweenie 7-2 WON ($14.00)

9th: CLM/N2L, D&M-3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

$303k Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #9 Starship Gambler 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 C P Hath a Way 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #2 Sabouli 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Star of Kitalpha LATE SCR
Super Add: #7 Wishkeeper 15-1 7th

SUPER HI-5 PLAY: 3-9 with 2-3-9 with 2-3-9 with 1/SCR-7 with ALL (2x2x1x1x5 = $20)

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-6-7
7: 7
8: 3
9: ALL

5x1x1x9 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

OFF THE TURF

4th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

$57k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #10 Opalite 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Divine Luck 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Skyfall 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #6 Whatrugonnadorosie 10-1 6th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Beat of the Drum 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #2 Sayaprayerforme 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Discreet Code 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Broadway Hat 5-1 5th

6th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 La Verdad 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #5 Kitty Panda 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Nonnie Connie 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Heidi’s Holiday 6-1 4th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Street Fight 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Make Your Move 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #13 So Scott 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #1 Shotinthefog 6-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Norumbega 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Integrity 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Midnight Taboo 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Doherty 7-2 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #9 Tapulous 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Al Aqsa 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #15 Prudent Investor 5-1 WON ($10.40)

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 7-10
5: 2-3-5
6: 6
7: 2-11-13
8: 3-5
9: 1-9

2x3x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-6
7: 2-11-13
8: 2-3-4-5-7
9: 1-9-15

3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,6/13/4/15) Paid $237.50

Oaks Day came off a bit strangely Friday with little continuity or momentum sustained. Some horses that were underlaid on the ML ended up going off at good prices (Magic Union, Speedinthruthecity) while others that looked like values disappointed at overbet numbers (Strike Charmer, Joelito). When it looked like there was an inkling of a score — a potentially healthy P3 after Authenticity & Kitten’s Dumplings came through — Fusaichiswonderful was collared in the final strides by So Many Ways.

The riding antics of Albarado and Borel in the Alysheba and the Oaks greatly impacted the outcomes later in the day, so all in all it was an entertaining but sideways afternoon. Given that the Friday card looked like the more furtive of the 2 day extravaganza, it will likely take some creativity to make money Saturday.

Hope everyone enjoyed ATR’s 2 week run at Churchill. As always, it went by in a flash. Happy Derby.. Safe trips and best of luck to all!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

CD SCR/CHG’S — NOTE THAT RAIN WILL COME & TRACK CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Apropos 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Honey Hues 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Glamour Puss 2-1 WON ($7.40)

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gombey Dancer 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 River Rocks 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Slan Abhile 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Our Double Play 8-1 WON ($29.60)

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Pizza Man 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Under Control 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Old Time Hockey 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Screenplay 3-1 3rd

4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Troubadour Tango 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bama Bound 6-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Saint X. 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Esplendido 8-1 12th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Perfect Title 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bellarmine 6-1 WON ($25.20)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 1-4-5-6
4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8

3x4x4x1 = 48 ($24 for .50)

6th: 19th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Not a great deal of speed. Southern Dude can wire..

Most Likely: #4 Ghost Is Clear 9-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Southern Dude 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ikon Ike 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 2nd

7th: 27th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aubby K 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #3 Same Cross 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Rumor 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Emma’s Encore 8-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-8
7: 2-3-4-6

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

8th: 28th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of pace here..

Most Likely: #5 Hungary Island 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Karlovy Vary 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 LATE SCR (Marketing Mix)
Exotics Use: #3 Daisy Devine 3-1 3rd

9th: 79th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Delauney 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 Unbridled’s Note 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Politicallycorrect 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Hierro 10-1 5th

10th: 27th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sure hope the questionable weather doesn’t dash this superb matchup. Feeling like McGaughey planning for this and LoPresti calling an audible provides tiniest edge to Point of Entry..

Most Likely: #9 LATE SCR (Point of Entry)
Next Best: #8 Wise Dan 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Optimizer 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jeranimo 8-1 7th

11th: 139th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

After two weeks talking about this Derby, there’s not much else to be said. Top pair from Florida Derby and SA Derby winner are the three most accomplished horses here. Mylute and Java’s War are the types that invade the exotics in this race..

Most Likely: #16 Orb 7-2 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1 15th
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-1 17th
Exotics Use: #6 Mylute 15-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #19 Java’s War 15-1 13th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-6
8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 9
10: 8–9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x1x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 5-7-9
10: 8–9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bull Dozer 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #2 Rightfully So 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Seven Lively Sins 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Wild Target 4-1 8th

13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f

Very deep set of maidens with many having run races that that look good enough. I make 7 possible and another 3 close by..

Best Value: #7 Sylvester 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Column 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Best Request 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 To the Stars 6-1 9th

<$100 P4 Play:

10: 8–9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16
12: 2-4-8
13: 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-12

1x4x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,8,9/1,16,21/6,8/5) Paid $215.65

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

A little tough to trust 0-for-2013 Vicki Oliver here, but Liberated is simply supposed to beat these..

Most Likely: #2 Liberated 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Anahauc 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Magic Union 4-1 WON ($21.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Diva Spirit 6-1 5th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Alleghany Angel 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Heaven’s Saint 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Profitiza 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Kansas 4-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

One of the trickiest reads of the day with a crazy variety of comebackers, stretchouts and surface-switchers coming together from last starts at Keeneland, Turfway, Delta, Woodbine, Santa Anita and Fair Grounds.. What the what? I’m not taking a short price..

Best Value: #8 Noble Charlotte 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Moment of Majesty 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Fortune Play 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Cozze Up Lady 5-2 2nd

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Love Train 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Sweet Shirley Mae 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Magical Moon 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Speedinthruthecity 7-2 WON ($15.40)

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

That was a nice debut effort by Strike Charmer into a slow pace at KEE. Anything near that ML may be generous..

Most Likely: #10 Strike Charmer 10-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Zadina 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #6 Taylor Street 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bail Me Out 3-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-6
3: 1-2-4-6-8-9
4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 28th La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

You know I love me some On Fire Baby, but the Shively heroine won’t be sneaking away from anyone here as she did in the Apple Blossom. Believe You Can and More Chocolate both will exert pressure no matter how they spill out of the gate while Authenticity figures to enjoy a stalk and pounce trip. Rock solid Padua mare has been Verrazano’s willing workmate and will be a nice value..

Best Value: #2 Authenticity 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 More Chocolate 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Believe You Can 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 On Fire Baby 8-5 2nd

7th: 28th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Would love to start P5 with just top pair and see it play out as it looks with Kitten’s Dumplings and Wave Theory slightly better than rest of cast. Birdlover faced an authentic tigress in Scarlet Strike. Tokyo Time commands respect..

Most Likely: #3 Kitten’s Dumplings 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #10 Wave Theory 9-2 DNF (Dropped rider)
Next Best: #9 Tokyo Time 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Birdlover 4-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10
6: 2-3-4-5
7: 3-10

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

8th: 58th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Thought the Puerto Rican import Fusaichiswonderful was pretty good from the get-go and Mott has been very deliberate handling Calistoga. Those two top the tabs but are also eligible to engage in a deadly duel. As in the Edgewood, would be well-served for the multis with just the pair, but Simms 3-for-3 Blueeyesintherain impressed at OP in her 3yo bow and will sit a nice trip..

Most Likely: #14 Calistoga 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Fusaichiswonderful 9-2 2nd
Best Value:#3 Blueeyesintherain 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gold Medal Dancer 15-1 9th

9th: 10th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Even without Fort Larned, a superb edition of this..

Most Likely: #8 Bourbon Courage 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Macho Macho 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Cyber Secret 7-2 8th-DQ’d from 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Take Charge Indy 4-1 WON ($7.60)

10th: 22nd American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fascinating group and some pace has already exited with the SCR of Redwood Kitten. There’s no reason why Bashaar won’t take to lawn with half brother Almusafa proven on it..

Most Likely: #2 Bashaar 8-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Joelito 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 War Dancer 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Fire Guard 8-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Positively 15-1 8th

11th: 139th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Double, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

This is as good an Oaks group as most can remember, but it presents a bit of a quandary from the wagering perspective given the overwhelmingly likely win presence of Dreaming of Julia. The Pletcher-Stonestreet favorite proved in the GP Oaks that she can sit comfortably, so while she figures to pick up the pacesetters as she did Live Lively in Florida, the collapsing speeds will be prime targets for the moderately talented off the pace types. Could some portion of Midnight Lucky, Beholder, Rose to Gold, Silsita and/or Close Hatches stay on behind Dreaming of Julia? Sure. But one, two or three of Unlimited Budget, Princess of Sylmar, Pure Fun and even Seaneen Girl can chug along and line up behind her in the super too..

Most Likely: #8 Dreaming of Julia 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Lucky 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Unlimited Budget 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pure Fun 30-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Princess of Sylmar 20-1 WON $79.60

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-10
8: 2-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 8

3x2x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 2-8

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$30 Oaks-Derby Double:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 12: 12-16 (3-6-11-18)

3×2 = 6 x $3 = $18
3×4 = 12 x $1 = $12

<$30 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 11: 8-9
Sat. 12: 3-6-11-12-16

3x2x5 = $30

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #5 Double Gelato 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Moonlight Caper 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Delilahjane 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Sky Girl 4-1 WON ($7.80)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Mack’s Blackhawk 5-1
Next Best: #6 Derby Kitten 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Clement Rock 6-1
Super Add: #2 Bell by the Ridge 3-1

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Illegally Blonde 9-5
Best Value: #1 With Gratitude 5-1
Next Best: #4 Magical Cat 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 My Miss Mary 15-1

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 PHYSICAL GOLD 4-1
Best Value: #11 Homage to Jack 12-1
Next Best: #10 Eddie’s Band 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Appealing Image 4-1

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 I’m Your Love 7-2
Next Best: #6 Tree Hugger 9-2
Best Value: #1 Starstruck 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Pavla 3-1

10th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Angel Divine 3-1
Next Best: #1 Sweet Baguette 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Pure Value 4-1
Super Add: #2 Queen Anne 5-1

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2-3-6-7-9-10
7: 1-2-4-6
8: 5
9: 5-6
10: 1-3

6x4x1x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-6
8: 5
9: 1-2-5-6
10: 1-2-3-6-7-9

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve