CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Consistent Western Tease’s usual effort bests these. There is plenty of pace and pressure though..

Most Likely: #5 Western Tease 5-2 9th
Next Best: #9 High Mystery 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Nickel Pickle 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Gruenewald 5-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very nice group and dandy wagering affair. Cozzetti makes 4yo debut here and has to be respected if any natural progression from sophomore year is on display. One question is what to do with Live in Joy (12-1) WON ($34.60) who was dangled for $25k at KEE by free-wheeling Ramsey and claimed by capable Lyster? At 20-1, Positive Side from Forster feels attractive 2nd off the break. What about 20-1 Saturday Launch who ran OK at KEE and already has shown a preference for the distinctly different Downs lawn? Some fun to be had here..

Best Value: #8 Positive Side 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dubious Miss 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Cozzetti 5-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Saturday Launch 20-1 8th

9th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

With Preakness won, DW Lukas & Kelley/Calumet seek MDN break of Fire Flight, 3yo Paynter full brother, (& 3/4 Oxbow kin), in this deep set. Faves look imposing though..

Most Likely: #2 Lifes Reward 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Seeking an Empire 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Maserati 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Fire Flight 15-1 8th

10th: 76th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

This is a wildly intriguing group with some potential for huge prices. Think you want to use as many as possible in the multis as virtually all 9 look like they could win with the right trip. How deep is this? 20-1’s Al Qasr and Najjaar both have authentic merit in amongst the obvious players and have to think 15-1 Heathcote came from Toronto with E-J Wilson with intent..

Most Likely: #2 Harrods Creek 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Al Qasr 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Atigun 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Heathcote 15-1 6th

11th: MDN CLM ($10k), 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Java for Two 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Fleet Decision 12-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Song Ahead 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Righteous Party 5-1 11-DQ’d from WIN
Super Add: #3 Best Five 5-2 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 5
8: 2-8-9
9: 2-5
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 8-9-10-11

1x3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8-9
9: 2-5
10: 2-4-6-8-9
11: 3-8-9-10-11

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 77th Arlington Matron (G3), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ice Cream Silence 6-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Sisterhood 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hooh Why 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Ausus 8-1 4th

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Clout 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mosquillo 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Double Silver 9-2 11th
Super Add: #4 Fort Defiance 10-1 7th

9th: 91st Hanshin Cup (G3), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Hammers Terror 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Seruni 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Mister Mardi Gras 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Patrioticandproud 15-1 5th

10th: 79th Arlington Classic (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD)

As discussed with Ed DeRosa on ATR Friday, Dorsett gets back to grass and Gefest (By Shakespeare o/o LDK mare) gets on it providing lots of value with the 2 obvious favorites..

Most Likely: #9 Procurement 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Dorsett 20-1 4th-DQ’d from 3rd
Next Best: #8 Admiral Kitten 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gefest 30-1 3rd

11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Mission Storm 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Morioba 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Jukebox Gem 4-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Givenchi 6-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Abby’s Slew 12-1 10th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-5-8
8: 1
9: 1-5-9
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 1-7-9

4x1x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5
9: 1-5-9
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 1-7-9-11

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Delightful Quality 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 Sure Route 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Flash Forward 4-1 4th

5th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Resoundingly 5-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Lawless Miss 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Stella Girl 5-2 9th
Super Add: #1 Malibu Holiday 6-1 WON ($29.40)

6th: MDN CLM ($65k), 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Gridiron Great 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Rapid Burn 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Ella’s Kitten 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Overwhelming 3-1 WON ($9.90)

7th: MDN CLM ($45k), 3yo+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Alysaro 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Concorde’s Peace 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Tony D 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Brass Set 8-1 6th

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Exclusive Strike 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #2 Tom Kitten 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Cantonic 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Tawaared 12-1 5th

9th: NY-MDN CLM ($35k), 3+, 7f

T2D turnbacks galore..

Most Likely: #2 Sneaky Freud 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #7 Shock Me Kaz 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Bustin Chops 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Private Irving A 3-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-4
5: 3-5
6: 4
7: 1-4-5
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 2-7

2x2x1x3x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-5
7: 1-4-5
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 2-4-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Belmont C/O proved as tricky as expected Wednesday as only 2 tickets emerged for $63,463 paydays. Although there were a pair of favorites and only 2 winners at $15 or more, the deep fields made building plays highly difficult. If you got to the nightcap live to .90 Dahteste, you had to be exceedingly frustrated watching her battle every step of the way only to be nailed on the wire by opportunistic Bozique ($15.80).

That winner and 5th race wide spread type Guyana Star ($21.20) were the ones that made the biggest difference, but $12.60 8th race hero Exporter was not the easiest to have on modest plays either. It was a good, fun afternoon of racing despite no real success through the wickets, with the Gygistar win by Declan’s Warrior (93 Beyer) notable early in the day. Hope everyone did OK. Weather iffy for today’s action at Elmont..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM ($65k), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sapphire Blue 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Judy G 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Tizallheart 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Late SCR

5th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Haldane 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Shesabronxbomber 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Princess Mara 3-1 WON ($8.90)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4
3: 1-6
4: 1-2-3-4-6-8
5: 2-4

3x2x6x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dawly 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Irish Lion 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Souper Speedy 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Ez Effort 5-1 4th

7th: MDN CLM ($40k), F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Quintile 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Malibu Queen 3-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #7 Madre Ditutticapi 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Blue Ballerina 7-2 2nd

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Terrific betting race. Faves have to be respected but there are exceedingly intriguing prices available including sharp-drilling, first-time-4yo La Bella Valeria who will get a big pace set up..

Best Value: #1 La Bella Valeria 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Jitney 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sus Annmaries Gold 2-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Alpha J 10-1 6th

9th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Most Likely: #8 Victory Island 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #3 Run a Dubb Dubb 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Bit Bustin 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Your Time Is Up 3-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-5-7
7: 5-6-7-8
8: 1-6
9: 3-4-8-9

4x4x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

Was rolling through Saturday Pimlico card smoothly until wheels came off with Chick Lang/Dixie/Preakness sequence that was in directions far different from my approach. Still a fun couple of days in Baltimore and hope everyone enjoyed Preakness Weekend and did well. Belmont carryover for Wednesday on a very tricky slate..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Bad bunch. Maybe capable Ryerson has upside with returning Wicked Disco who is a half to grass galloot Concorde’s Tune..

Best Value: #1 (POE) Wicked Disco 15-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #10 Athenula 5-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Chessrate 6-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #6 Brianna Nicole 5-1 (C) 3rd

Other “C’s”: #4 Ideal Place 7-2 (C) WON ($7.60); #7 Bet U Cant Find Me 3-1 (C) 4th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Tough set assembled here with at least half of them eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #4 Miss Sweet Afleet 5-1 (A) 8th
Next Best: #1 Rodinia 4-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tapit to Me 7-2 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #7 Hold It 6-1 (C) 5th

Other “C’s”: #6 Ascended Fever 10-1 (C) 7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

No relief here at all with a very competitive cast featuring 1st/claims and droppers..

Best Value: #2 Pure Attitude 10-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #7 Most Happy Fella 3-1 (B) WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Regal Warrior 2-1 (C) 2nd
Super Add: #6 Budge Man 12-1 (C) 6th

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Very little pace signed on here. Expect the early lick comes from Here He Fitz who gets blinkers and does shows spritely drill from back in March. Jade Run and Thnxtomyuncle are the ones that want at least some set up. Note that J’ray son M Six gets Lasix for the first time here..

Most Likely: #1 Jade Run 6-5 (A) WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #4 Thnxtomyuncle 3-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #3 M Six 5-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Here He Fitz 4-1 (C) 4th

Other “C’s”: #2 Bernardo 12-1 (C) 3rd

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (DD)

DRF-Formulator Race of the Day and yet another deep, contentious group. Note that there is plenty of speed lined up..

Most Likely: #7 Saved the Best 3-1 (A) –
Best Value: #8 Cashleigh 15-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pontus 5-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Exporter 4-1 (C) WON ($12.60)

Other “C’s”: #9 Brickyard Kitten 4-1 –; #1 Beeliner 10-1 (C) 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m

Most Likely: #4 Dahteste 8-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Pure Afleet 3-1 (B) 5th
Best Value: #2 Pumpkin Lane 10-1 (C) 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Shalala 6-1 (C) 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-10
5: 1-2-4
6: 2-7
7: 1-4
8: 7
9: 1-4

3x3x2x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7-8
7: 1-2-3-4-5
8: 5-7-8
9: 1-2-4

4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

Black-Eyed Susan Day turned out a lot like we discussed with Rick Hammerle on ATR as a nearly unrelenting parade of low prices prevailed. There was no shortage of exciting finishes, but there was a dearth of big mutuels other than the explosive 5th race allowance where eye-crossing $54 Righteous Place stayed on. After that, the series of stakes winners all made sense.

On to Preakness Day with the sobbering reminder that the obvious seem to largely demand respect at Old Hilltop no matter how original you want to make your thinking. Last year, only Skyring ($19.60 in the Murphy) paid a real price, while in 2011 Super Espresso ($24.20 in the DuPont) and Chinglish (Also $19.60 in the Murphy) charged the tote. In 2010, Taqarub ($28.60 in MD Sprint) and Strike a Deal ($30.20) were chalkbusters while Social Queen ($20.20 in the Gallorette) and Everyday Heroes ($16.40 in the last Hirsch Jacobs) helped boost bankrolls the year Rachel won the feature.

Remember that .50 triples and P3’s are available here which can help you spread or press very effectively depending on your approach. Hope everyone did well Friday and that Preakness Day is safe for the horses and riders and profitable for you!

PIMLICO RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Benny Or Local 7-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Wild Louis 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Hakama 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Aussi Austin 3-1 WON ($5.40)

2nd: Deputed Testimony S-H’cap, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Hello Lover (7-5) a real horse for Butch Reid but is returning for 7yo debut here off a 4+ month break. Isn’t going to have a big pace to close in to either. Likely winner still, but feels a little vulnerable. Add #3 Love Talk to your Superfecta plays..

Most Likely: #9 Hello Lover 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 No Brakes 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Arctic Raven 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Who Dat Boy 7-2 3rd

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Note that PIM has a thick, lush turf course and those that haven’t tried grass or are less than fit can struggle over it and/or tire. I bring it up because Brooklyn Cowboy tries lawn first time. His dam No Better Time had sibling (MD-bred stalwart Gala Spinaway) that was quite OK on weeds..

Best Value: #12 Hesagoldmine 15-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Brooklyn Cowboy 7-2 14th
Exotics Use: #7 Relentless Move 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #16 Gottalovethedrake 12-1 2nd

4th: Rollicking, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sweet Emma Rose 7-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Take Time to Pray 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Silvertonguedtommy 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Debt Ceiling 8-1 WON ($12.20)

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Joy 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #6 Monster Sleeping 12-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Nokaze 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Marataya’s Tune 9-2 3rd

6th: 4th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Zee Bros cuts back to three quarters from 1m Derby Trial, but note best run came at seven eighths. Is he a ‘tweener’? This has chaos written all over it..

Best Value: #7 City of Westin 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Zee Bros 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Undrafted 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Bobcat Jim 6-1 2nd

7th: 48th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Fun betting affair and a source of plus mutuels the last 2 years as cited above. Notacatbutallama doesn’t scare. Wry Me (20-1) is a full to Notassharpasyouthink who was quite OK on the grass..

Most Likely: #10 Redwood Kitten 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Wry Me 20-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Shining Copper 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Heat Press 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Notacatbutallama 9-5 3rd

8th: Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

P5 is a mandatory payout for Preakness Day..

Most Likely: #7 Brushed by a Star 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Summer Applause 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Daydreamin Gracie 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sea Island 6-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 6-7-9
6: 2-3-7-9
7: 1-2-3-4-6-10
8: 6-7

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/2/10/1,2,6) Paid $116.70

9th: 62nd Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Samitar 5-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Appealing Cat 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Pianist 4-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Hard Not to Like 10-1 2nd

10th: 27th Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

This will be a war with waves of speed, stalkers and closers..

Most Likely: #4 Hardened Wildcat 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Laurie’s Rocket 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Immortal Eyes 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Action Andy 6-1 8th

11th: 112th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this..

Best Value: #4 Imagining 5-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Optimizer 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Swift Warrior 4-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Two Months Rent 15-1 5th

12th: 138th Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Hard to believe one would feel more nervous about this spot than the chaotic potential offered in the Derby, but that’s the way it’s been for me this week looking forward to Orb’s follow up to Kentucky. Phipps-Janney colt continues to improve and wins this unless something unforeseen occurs or someone utterly freaks. The 2 horses here about whom we don’t have full disclosure are Govenor Charlie and Departing, so they offer the stranger danger and upside. Mylute is one of the Derby also-rans that looks like he can still advance..

Most Likely: #1 Orb 1-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Govenor Charlie 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Departing 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Mylute 5-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Itsmyluckyday 10-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-4-10
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 1-2-4-7-9-12
12: 1

4x4x6x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$100 P5 Play:

8: 6-7
9: 3-4-10
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 1-2-4-5-7-9-12-13
12: 1

2x3x4x8x1 = 192 x .50 = $96

13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Springs 10-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Crown Polis 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Forest Jingles 15-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Dinos Romance 8-1 9th