BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

OFF THE TURF (5th-6th-9th)

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Important assembly given presence of some purple bred players including Caxambas Pass, daughter of Matalacha Pass and hence half sister of Point of Entry and Pine Island. This is the Phipps female family that goes back to Maplejinsky who got Sky Beauty and Our Country Place who produced Pleasant Home and Country Hideaway as well as Matalacha Pass. Juddmonte’s Assured is out of Aptitude sister Sleep Easy who both dropped from Dokki. Dokki was a daughter of fountainhead Alluvial and so a sister of Slew O’ Gold and Coastal. There’s more here, but you get the picture. With families like this, it is imperative that these fillies find the winner’s circle..

Best Value: #1 Minx 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Assured 7-5 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Caxambas Pass 3-1 4th

3rd: Criminal Type, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hymm Book 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Mucho Macho Man 4-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 San Pablo 5-1 WON ($11.00)

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$82k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Jacobson barn on the skids right now so knowing what to do with Artie Luvsto Party is tricky. If his horses aren’t getting bet, steer clear..

Most Likely: #2 Indy Tune 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #1 Political Justice 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dan and Sheila 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Diamond District 10-1 6th

5th: Three Coins Up, 4+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Love to Run 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Jaguar Paw 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #8 Joan’s Choice 4-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4
3: 1-3-5
4: 1-2-4-5-6
5: 9-10

3x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (4/3/2,8/1,3,4,6,7,9,11) Paid $96.75

6th: MCLM/$65k, 3yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Saturday Nthe Park 2nd
Next Best: #9 Ambusher 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Shortbread Scotty 5th

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Bobby Jo 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Classic Point 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #1 Need an Angel 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Tanglewood Tale 4-1 3rd

8th: OC/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #7 Baby J 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Moment in Dixie 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Five Star Momma 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Well Kept 3-1 WON ($12.80)

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #12 Concealed WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #9 Amazing Abby 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Rice and Beans 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4-5-6
5: 9-10
6: 1
7: 3-7
8: 3-7
9: 9-12

5x2x1x2x2x2 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$25 P4 Play:

6: 1
7: 1-3-7
8: 3-7
9: 9-12

1x3x2x2 = 12 x $2 = $24

Wild sequence at Belmont to kick off the race week Wednesday as a series of prices guaranteed a P6 carryover early on and saw rare 3 of 6 payoffs possible in the nightcap. $29.20 Marriedtothemusic may have cleaned out the vast majority of plays in the 4th as a trio of 5-2 favorites all failed to menace the Galluscio wire winner. Firster Two Susans ($15.60) was well down the pecking order in the 5th and while Luxury Appeal ($17.00) was a price contender in the 6th, he didn’t feel like a necessity on a modest P6 play.

Shirreffs firster Peace and Justice is a half to SW Hudson Steele and after taking money ($8.40), ran big in the 7th. Divadora was the 2nd product of Dr. Blum mare Bedside Manner to win on the card (Two Susans) and the filly made good on my suggestion of the promise of ‘first time 4yo’. She was 6-1 on the ML but floated past 12-1 to return $27.20. You only needed one hit in the sequence to make out for the day. Hope you did OK. $27k carryover today on a very good card and was hoping rain would hold off enough to get the races in intact, but everything has been taken off the turf..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

ALL RACES OFF THE TURF

3rd: Lotka, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Prominent owner Michael Dubb in process of moving some horses away from Rudy Rodriguez and My Happy Face is the first of them. Goes to Chad Brown and looks too tough for these. What You Know was pretty good in that winning debut for Nevin and should pick up everyone else behind the favorite. Note NY debut of trainer Oussama Aboughazzale who made a splash at Gulfstream at the end of the meet with a couple of winners including today’s runner (at 30-1) and James Murphy (PIM) runner up Shining Copper. Moved his string from Payson Park to Fair Hill and appears capable based on the limited sample of U.S. starters he’s sent. Diva Spirit take off hood and adds Lasix for this..

Most Likely: #3 My Happy Face 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Diva Spirit 15-1 4th

4th: Smart and Fancy, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

$27k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #7 Ballistic Sue 5th
Next Best: #6 Sounds of the City 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Munnings Sister WON ($5.20)

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 MRS. CALABASH 5-1 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #1 Mystic Rhyme 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Faceineveryflower 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Go Olivia Go 3-1 3rd

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

There are a plethora of front-end interested missies involved here, too many for this to not find a mid-pack stalker or late runner. Princess Mara is a 5x winner and turns back from mile wire job last time. Drinksonthehouse SCR can perch outside and stalk. Depending on how much rain there has been, note that Lenders Way’s 2 wins are on wet tracks. Good race and fun spot to swing for exotics fences..

Most Likely: #1 Princess Mara 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Lenders Way 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Jitney 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Bird House 15-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

#8 Siero (6-1), obviously an ouchy type, is 3 for 3 and being offered up for 3rd time in career. City Zip 3yo should like turf and can win if able to get around in one piece..

Best Value: #8 Siero 2nd
Next Best: #10 Smoke Town 4th

8th: Astronomia, 3yo-F, 7f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Barbie Wire 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #4 Fab Flowers 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Silsita 5-2 2nd

9th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #2 High Inflation 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Tizallheart 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Owell 4-1 7th
Super Add: #13 Kaitlyn’s Cat 5-2 WON ($9.00)

<$75 P6 Play:

4: 6-7-9
5: 5
6: 1
7: 8
8: 2-4-6
9: 2-6-11-13

3x1x1x1x3x4 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-9
7: 8-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 2-6-11-13

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sense of Peace 4th
Next Best: #10 Rubysandpearls 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Abra 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Rosie’s Song 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Bustin Out Allover 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 La Java SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Carla Sweetrevenge 5-1 2nd

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

5.5f trip notable here for opportunity to speed pop. Roddy Valente’s Stoneless SCR will get to turn ahead of fire sale candidate Lucci the Lion SCR and will have to hold him — and the rallyers — off..

Best Value: #3 Revere 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 In Todd We Trust 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 A. F. Hennessey 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Luxury Appeal 12-1 WON ($17.00)

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Stays on turf and a very good group to tinker with. Albertrani sends Slew’s Best Quality (15-1), 3yo son of Mrs. Weber’s highly productive MSW mare Slew’s Final Answer out for 2nd start and first with Lasix.

Best Value: #5 Slew’s Best Quality 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Force Multiplier 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Mail 4-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Three Streets 6-1 3rd

8th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

As Andy Serling said on ATR Tuesday, if Jeremiah Englehart’s Irish Whisper runs back to debut, she’ll be very tough. C. Brown’s Clean Eleven obviously a threat with any 2nd start improvement and Ribaudo’s T2D Heidi’s Holiday interesting at a big number with maidenbreaker the outlying race to run back to. Divadora makes frequently potent first start at 4 and her maiden win also the race on page that fits here..

Most Likely: #9 Irish Whisper 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Clean Eleven 9-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Heidi’s Holiday 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Divadora 6-1 WON ($27.20)

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #13 M Six 3-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Scandalo 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Restore the Shore SCR
Super Add: #12 Retired 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-3-5-8
8: 3-7-9-10
9: 4–5/SCR-13

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

A long — and rather soggy — Triple Crown season draws to a close Saturday with New York having been as well drenched by rain as Louisville and Baltimore in the earlier stops. Of course the Belmont also is the end of the first half of the year for the 3yo’s we have come to view as the elite and this edition of the feature enjoys the Derby and Preakness winners as headliners. As always, it’s been a pleasure and privilege bringing you the coverage of the Derby Trail all year and Triple Crown these past 5 weeks and I hope the information delivered has been valuable. Hope everyone enjoyed the eclectic week of shows from Belmont. Best of luck today!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

Rain has stopped at this hour (6a) and blue sky actually is peaking through the clouds here in Garden City. If you heard NYRA trackman Glen Kozak on ATR Friday, you know the track may be as ‘dry’ as “good” by race time today, but will certainly start as muddy. Depending on the drying out element, expect the track to be very fast to start the afternoon. The sandy Belmont surface can get very gummy/tacky as it dries and horses can labor over that as the day goes on. The turf will by soft at worst/yielding at best. 3rd race is off the turf. Stakes, 12th and 13th remain on..

1st: NY-OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Master Cip 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Overextended 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Saint Arthur 6-1 7th

2nd: OC/C, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Favored Integrity (3-1) is OK but needs to improve to beat a few of these. Respect but don’t fear..

Most Likely: #1e Jacobson entry 4-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Whatabouthonor 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Integrity 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Odea 6-1 9th

3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Isn’tshewonderful 2-1 9th
Next Best: #14 Concealed 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Raven Rise 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Atlantic’s Smile 5-1 7th

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

SCR #8 Captain Davrick who won Friday and without him, this race feels like a bit of a mess..

Most Likely: #1 El Genio 12-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Pete and David 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Native Singer 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bernardo 15-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Rap d’Oro 8-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Howie’s Tiz 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Sneaky Blowout 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Risky Asset 4-1 8th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7-9
3: 13
4: 1-2-4-9-10-11
5: 1-3-6-9

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

As discussed yesterday with Nick Tammaro & Mike Beer, Power Broker the obvious ‘beat me’ horse but there will be pressure from outside if he wants to do it from in front. Watch Risky Asset in the 5th for possible added flattery of Wabbajack here..

Most Likely: #2 Power Broker 7-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #8 Wabbajack 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 New Line 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Micromanage 12-1 2nd

7th: 35th True North H. (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

“Z” entry looms tough but Sage Valley was spectacular in Baltimore 3 weeks ago sending my day into a tailspin. Off the Jak trains at Calder where he likely has run over any kind of moistured surface he’ll see today..

Most Likely: #1e Zayat ownership entry 7-5 WON/2nd ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Sage Valley 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Off the Jak 15-1 4th

8th: 20th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Been anticipating this heat since it became clear that Mizdirection and Centre Court were coming and then event was enhanced by thriller from Stephanie’s Kitten and Hungry Island at Churchill. Even with possible SCR of Dayatthespa, race should be outstanding. ‘Spa’ status a big issue here with Mizdirection and she the most interested in front end dominance. May need to reevaluate approach to this as we await Chad Brown call..

NOTE: Chad Brown waiting as long as possible before deciding on Dayatthespa remaining in race..

Most Likely: #3 Centre Court 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Hungry Island 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stephanie’s Kitten 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Better Lucky 12-1 2nd

9th: 29th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Have been big booster of Let Em Shine and think he may just have the kind of breakaway foot that sends everyone into panic mode early. Plenty of options though if you are decided in other pacey direction or envision any of the possible scenarios which certainly includes an utter meltdown. Absolutely tremendous assembly for this..

Most Likely: #11 Let Em Shine 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Declan’s Warrior 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Forty Tales 5-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Honorable Dillon 12-1

10th: 112th Manhattan H. (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Point of Entry being judiciously handled by Shug and while he has to give 5-11# to field, seems overwhelming with these..

Most Likely: #1 Point of Entry 3-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #8 Twilight Eclipse 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Optimizer 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Side Road 20-1 7th

11th: 145th Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

This feels like it is a Belmont ripe for a chaotic result, yet would anyone be surprised if the top 3 from the Derby (Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary) and the Preakness winner (Oxbow) comprised the superfecta? As discussed on ATR extensively, with the likelihood of a spirited pace up front, having the sustained running style types as the core of your play is the suggested approach and the Derby 1-2-3 fulfill that requirement. Oxbow has been ‘hickory’ as they say, and his Shackleford style Derby to Preakness heroics beat me badly as images of Lukas’ Dublin dogged my perception of him going into Baltimore. The Derby also-rans that arrive here (Frac Daddy, Overanalyze, Giant Finish, Will Take Charge, Vyjack, Palace Malice) vary in interest levels with most not having enthusiastic appeal as win candidates. That gets us to the newcomers in the form of Freedom Child, Incognito, Midnight Taboo and filly Unlimited Budget. While Peter Pan winner and morning standout Freedom Child is garnering a lot of attention, it feels like the draw guarantees he will be pressured and even harassed from the outset. He can beat me at what will be underlay odds. Incognito is by a Belmont winner out of the Starlight filly that swept the CCAO and Mother Goose at Belmont but has my attention for a silly additional reason.. the blue jacket. After exposure in an International humiliation with the steroid scandal, it is hard to believe Godolphin moves from Darley maroon on the Lasix-free A.P. Indy son to be embarrassed here. Todd Pletcher is 8/1-3-3 with his Belmont runners since ’06 and the winner was of course filly Rags to Riches. Unlimited Budget is a nice horse that ran a nice race in the Oaks but I think she’ll be hard pressed to be a part of this late. I committed to Orb early on for this spot and will stay the course, but encourage creative thinking to your ticket building. The distance — and of course the added uncertainty about the track condition — make this a quirky event. It’s a full, fun field and you should be swinging for a score..

Most Likely: #5 Orb 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Revolutionary 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Overanalyze 12-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Will Take Charge 20-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Incognito 20-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 2-5-7-8
7: 1-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 11
10: 1
11: 3-5-9

4x2x3x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-6-7
9: 1-5-7-11
10: 1
11: 3-5-6-9-10

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

12th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Delighted Dee Tee gets to participate on a day like this and My Pal of Pals comes into the race well off his maiden breaking performance 3+ weeks ago. Needs to step forward again from that effort and handle ground with give, but has been flattered by Papa Freud and Campogiovanni out his ’12 races and is an overlay at 30-1..

Most Likely: #7 Gimme Credit 8-5 5th
Best Value: #8 My Pal of Pals 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Sky Blue Pink 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Visionandaprayer 5-1 10th

13th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Very little pace here and if Lezcano is clever, he gets Foolish Tiger in front..

Most Likely: #1 Nineinthenine 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 J W Blue 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Foolish Tiger 15-1 WON ($27.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Yankee Fortune 6-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

10: 1
11: 3-5-6-9-10
12: 3-5-7-8-10
13: 1-3-4-7

1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

Leaked money steadily Saturday starting with the fun state bred slate at Belmont as both logical horses (Clear Pasaj) and fortunate prices (Amberjack) interfered with my ideas. Later at Penn National, thought the solution to the day was on its’ way when 13-1 Norman Asbjornson looked a winner on the turn of the Mountainview, but Easter Gift blunted the potential windfall by corralling him. Hollywood was no help to the bankroll either. Hope everyone did OK. Heading to Elmont shortly for Belmont Week broadcasts, so here’s a look at today’s good card.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Departures 20-1
Next Best: #4 Richmond County 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 King Rock 12-1
Super Add: #9 Fly Ride 5-1

5th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 El Corriente 4-1
Best Value: #3 Awesome Weekend 15-1
Next Best: #5 Smiling Bob 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Freud’s Debut 9-2

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Swiss Tart 4-1
Best Value: #3 System Restore 10-1
Next Best: #8 Gunfighter 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 Diamond District 8-1

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Milesmore 6-1
Best Value: #5 Appian Way 30-1
Next Best: #7 Secret Shifters 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Kevin Silverlaspia 20-1

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Big Business 5-2
Best Value: #9 Sam Sparkle 15-1
Next Best: #7 Escrow Kid 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 N. F.’s Destiny 4-1

9th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Irish Moon 5-1
Next Best: #1 Beyond Empire 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Ghostly Vision 12-1
Super Add: #7 Quiet Power 4-1

10th: NY-MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #7 Legal Lady 7-2
Best Value: #6 Beautiful Me 8-1
Next Best: #2 Elizabeth’s Flair 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Cayman Smile 5-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-7-9
8: 6-9
9: 1-5-9
10: 1-2-3-5-6-7

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve