Vacationing but PP’s were printed and prospect of a carryover from Friday Belmont action got me deep into this very good slate. While the storied Mother Goose appears overwhelmingly likely to be dominated by Dreaming of Julia, the sixth, eighth and ninth (which features Dee Tee’s Toy Cannon) are terrific ALW fare and the 2 maiden races (seventh, eleventh) are plenty interesting.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Key here is how quickly Ortiz and Now and Then go after JV and Readbytheline. If unchallenged too long, Schosberg/Black Swan gelding can take them all the way. 10-1 inviting. Sophomore Go Get the Basil doesn’t exactly get class relief in this spot out of the Peter Pan. Norumbega continues to move forwardly with every start. So Scott was claimed 11 months ago by Jacobson and has been as steady a performer in that time as you will find making 10 starts and going 1-5-2..

Best Value: #7 Readbytheline 10-1
Next Best: #2 Now and Then 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 So Scott 3-1
Super Add: #1 Norumbega 5-2

7th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Tricky set with first timers and trainer changees eligible to get involved in outcome with several here having had more than enough opportunity to find circle. #13-AE It’s Your Dime RUNS very obvious if able to draw in..

Most Likely: #13 It’s Your Dime 2-1
Best Value: #1 Mighty Reward 8-1
Next Best: #5 Pan Dulce 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Lady Halite 5-1

8th: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most outlandish event in the P6 sequence with all but Vexor and Happy My Way seemingly possible for laurels. Stalkers and closers appear the way to lean here with what looks like an honest pace, but spread as wide as you can in multis..

Most Likely: #9 Notmyfirstime 3-1
Best Value: #3 Wee Freudian 12-1
Next Best: #5 Power World 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Night Maneuver 10-1

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Dee Tee’s Toy Cannon has been nibbling throughout the first half of the year building a 4/0-3-0-1 mark while closing into various paces on 3 different courses. A nearly untrainable bad actor in the mornings, he seems a bit of a pool shot horse as his career unfolds, needing ideal set up and perfect ride to score. Note that he gets back on the Widener Turf Course today, site of his maidenbreaker and as Andy Serling has pointed out, probably more suitable for sweeping rally style. Should get a fair pace to chase today and will need to get past Mrs. Weber’s With Exultation if he is to garner 2nd win. Elsewhere, hard not to notice mammoth rider upgrade on 12-1 In My Eyes as Rosario gets on in place of Castro..

Most Likely: #3 With Exultation 5-2
Next Best: #8 Toy Cannon 7-2
Best Value: #4 In My Eyes 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Status of Forces 20-1

10th: 57th Mother Goose (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Dreaming of Julia gets chance to gain sophomore G1 stripe after unfortunate incident at start of KY Oaks..

Most Likely: #2 Dreaming of Julia 1-2
Best Value: #1 Marathon Lady 5-1
Next Best: #3 Close Hatches 7-1

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Face the Race 3-1
Next Best: #6 Sir Leslie 8-1
Best Value: #2 Fiddlers Tango 30-1
Exotics Use: #1 Professor Chaos 15-1

<$100 P6 Play:

6: 2-7
7: 13
8: 3-4-5-9
9: 3-8
10: 2
11: 2-6-8

2x1x4x2x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-5-9
9: 2-3-4-8-10
10: 2
11: 1-2-6-8-9

6x5x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

First half of Belmont Wednesday went chalky with the P4 losing $25, but then the interesting prices began to work their way into the mix. There wasn’t a winner above 8-1 in the P6 sequence, but $12.40, $17.80 and $14.40 numbers in the late P3 ($666.50 for $1) were enough to trip a $20k carryover into Thursday.

Chaos-eligible maiden claiming nightcap came through to generate a nice close to the afternoon when Best Value tab Silver Silence won well at 6-1 with 44-1 Baal Perazim rounding out the tri and just missing the placement when headed late by Brianna Nicole. The $1 triple returned $649. Hope everyone did well. Last ATR today before post-Triple Crown/pre-Saratoga vacation through July 2nd..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$20,400 P6 C/O starts here..

I don’t get what is so scary about Spooky Kitten. Spooky Mulder, yes.. Spooky Kitten, no..

Best Value: #8 Original Kitten 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Strategic Missle 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Spooky Kitten 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Sheza Heartbreaker 15-1 WON ($53.00)

5th: NY-OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Having a hard time settling on pace scenario here. If left alone at all, She’s Stones Sis (By Giant’s Causeway and half to Bustin Stones) can wire..

Most Likely: #7 She’s Stones Sis 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 She’s Always Hot 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Tahoe Tigress 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Milkyyourway 8-1 6th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Missysmoonlitmagic will have every opportunity to wire this group. Up to Edgar to take advantage..

Most Likely: #8 MISSYSMOONLITMAGIC 8-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Chick in Slacks 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 The Winged Venus 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Onthekisser 7-2 4th

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mah Jong Maddnes 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Swakopmund 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Lawless Miss 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 English Rhythm 4-1 4th

8th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Bigger Is Bettor 5-1 WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #2 Swag Daddy 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Copper Forest 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Most Happy Fella 5-1 6th

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #5 Palace Dreams 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #9 Celesta 6-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Run to Mama 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Jennys Creek 5-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-8
5: 4-5-7
6: 8
7: 2-3-4-6
8: 2-7
9: 5

3x3x1x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-8-11
7: 2-3-4-6
8: 2-5-7
9: 1-2-5-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

From Ascot to Elmont, Wesley Ward has 2yo’s and Ainteasybeinggreen SCR goes favored here. Blue Collar Cat, a half to Swag Daddy, banged the gate in his debut which featured Ward’s Ogermeister..

Most Likely: #2 Blue Collar Cat 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 I’m Gonna Flip 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Carolinian 5-2 6th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Slightly mysterious group with a notable sidebar from the late Ned Evans. Fevered Kiss (Smart Strike) for Mott is out of the outstanding Raging Fever that Mark Hennig sent out to 10 stakes wins and nearly $1.5MM in earnings. Meanwhile, Shirreffs debuts Cool Flame (Dixie Union) out of Fever’s Gone (Gone West) who was Raging Fever’s first foal! Jet Away returns as a first time 3yo for Shug. Phipps H/B is out of Resort, a half sis of the late, tragic Sightseeing..

Most Likely: #3 Work N Flirt 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Jonata 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Cool Flame 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Wedding Toast 5-2 2nd

3rd: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

As discussed with Ian Wilkes (returns Ninety Schillings) Monday, a deep, accomplished group..

Most Likely: #4 Joes Blazing Aaron 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Doubles Partner 7-5 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Admiral Perry 4-1 2nd

4th: MCLM/$60k, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Ithastobegeorge 8-5 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #6 Political Farce 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Trusted Choice 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Alysaro 5-1 5th

5th: NY-OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Tough set and feels like pace could get prompted but if no one goes with Read the Research, he’ll wire this..

Most Likely: #7 Read the Research 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #3 Newbie 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Another Page 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Keep Bustin 5-2 3rd

@$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 4-5
4: 2-3-4-6
5: 1-2-3-4-6-7-8

2x2x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/2,5,7/1,4/7) Paid $27.75

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Dual Citizen 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Free Brave 5-2 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #8 Rangey 12-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Sam’s Buck 10-1 3rd

7th: OC/C, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Outrageously well-matched group. Don’t accept short prices..

Best Value: #9 Christiesborntorun Late SCR (Gate)
Next Best: #2 Eternal Ruler 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Nine O Wonderful 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Spring to the Sky 5-2 2nd

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #4 War Hitch 3-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Tricky Slam 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Storm Pursuit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Chic’s Palace 20-1 10th

9th: MCLM/$16k, F&M-3+, 1m-T

One of those ugly groups that invites chaos..

Most Likely: #2 Estrange 2-1 9th
Best Value: #1 Silver Science 8-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #6 Brianna Nicole 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Shake Senora 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Baal Perazim 20-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-8
7: 2-3-8-9/SCR-10
8: 4-7
9: 1-2-6-8-9

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Happy Father’s Day!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$47k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #10 Hurricane Jackie 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Coriander 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Familyofroses 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Chow Fun 5-1 5th

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

well-matched group..

Most Likely: #10 Zip Up 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #7 Giant’s Jewel 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Callana 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ruthie Blue Eyes 12-1 8th

7th: Bit of Whimsey, 3yo-F, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

How often does the son or daughter of a mare get a chance to win a race named for their dam? Caroline Thomas is out of Bit of Whimsey and has a big shot here..

Most Likely: #1 Mariel N Kathy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Caroline Thomas 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Maximova 2-1 WON ($4.70)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Funny Money 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Strike Accord 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Roses for Romney 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #10 L C Cinderella 3-1 8th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #8 Desert Bliss 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Ave’s Halo 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Rakin’ Gold 8-1 WON ($21.60)
Super Add: #3 Image of Noon 7-2 2nd

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Trainingforsuccess 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Pete and David 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Muscles Marinara 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Market Blaster 6-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 10
6: 1-7-10
7: 1-3-5
8: 6
9: 3-7-8-10
10: 2-8

1x3x3x1x4x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5
8: 1-6
9: 3-7-8-10
10: 1-2-8-9

3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$130k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Ernie Owl 9-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Afleet Cowboy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Big Note 7-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Stoneside 3-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 A Red Tie Day 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Deputy Striker 10-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Quality Plan 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Chocolatier 15-1 7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Gutshot Straight 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #5 Chapman’s Peak 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Trulee Scrappin 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Luckarack 6-1 3rd

7th: Cal-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Turn On the Pumps 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Pulpit’s Express 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Something’s Unusual 4-1 WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #8 Affrettando 15-1 5th

8th: Desert Stormer, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Teddy’s Promise 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Winding Way 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Include Me Out 5-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Via Villagio 6-1 6th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Beast of Bourbon 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Whipstock 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #11 Crestatorre 7-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Just Irish 5-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Zippingaroundtown 10-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-6-8
5: 5
6: 2-5-8
7: 6-7
8: 3-7
9: 3-10

3x1x3x2x2x2 = 72 X $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-8
7: 3-6-7
8: 3-7
9: 3-7-10-11

3x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NY-MCLM/$50k, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 One Red Cat 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Joe Mooch 7-2 8th
Best Value: #7 My Teddy Bear 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Horatio 5-1 3rd

8th: 39th Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Red Rifle 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Play It Loud 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Michael With Us 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Infinite Magic 7-2 6th

9th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #8 Money in Motion 5-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #1a Situational Ethics 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Street Fight 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Shotinthefog 6-1 6th

10th: NY-MCLM/$10k, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 Shock Me Kaz 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Without Regard 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 G W’s Hammer Late SCR (Gate)
Exotics Use: #2 Purple Rico 12-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-7-8-10
8: 2-3-7-9-11
9: 1-8
10: 3/SCR-4-8

5x5x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Cotton’s Point 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Classic Candy 12-1 11th
Next Best: #2 Keldy 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Glorious Luck 8-1 WON ($32.00)

.10 SUPER: Key 7 with 2-4-6-10 with 2-4-5-6-10-11 with 2-4-5-6-10-11 (1x4x5x4 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

8th: 49th Willard Proctor Memorial, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Willie B Awesome 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Geldautomat 10-1 9th
Next Best: #7 California Chrome 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Kobe’s Back 7-2 WON ($5.60)

9th: 72nd Vanity H. (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Open Water 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Lady of Fifty 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 More Chocolate 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Esentepe 7-2 6th

10th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Secret Memo 5-2 9th
Next Best: #10 Royal Weekend 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Goldilocks Planet 10-1 WON ($25.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Big G Secret Crab 5-1 6th
Super Add: #14 Rockin Hard Gals 7-2 8th

<$75/$40 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 2-5-6-7-8-9
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 8-9-10

1x6x4x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Awesome Flower 2-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Seans Silverdancer 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Speedinthruthecity 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Yankee Union 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Brilliant Autumn 20-1 4th

4th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Troubadour Tango 3-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Lent 8-1 WON ($14.00)
Next Best: #6 Buckwheat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Strike It Big 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #13 Mr. Besilu 4-1 7th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bail Me Out 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Doctor Vickie Lynn 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Flores Island 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Strike Charmer 9-2 WON ($9.20)

6th: 38th Fleur De Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Delta 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Wine Princess 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 She’s All In 10-1 3rd

<$25/$50/$75 P4 Play:

3: 3-5-6-7-9
4: 2-5-6-12-13
5: 1-3-4-5
6: 5

5x5x4x1 = 100 x .50 = $50

Press or Back-up option covering Wine Princess:

3: 3-6
4: 2-5-6
5: 1-3-4-5
6: 5 (3)

2x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

7th: 16th Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Looking Cool 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Code West 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Sunbean 6-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Bellarmine 9-2 5th

8th: 32nd Stephen Foster (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Successful Dan 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Take Charge Indy 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Fort Larned 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #3 Ron the Greek 3-1 3rd

9th: 44th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Kitten’s Dumplings 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Miss Lucky Sevens 10-1 –
Next Best: #1 Praia 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Broken Spell 8-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-3-4-5
6: 5
7: 1-2-5-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 3-6

4x1x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 1-2-3-5-7-10
8: 2-3-4-6
9: 1-3-6

2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72