Found the right horses in the BEL double C/O Sunday, but ticket structure and budget prevented getting the 6 winners on one play. $12k return seemed very fair for the approachable sequence and snaring the $318 late P4 more than covered the day’s big multi plays. Had a number of nice hits within the afternoon and hope everyone did well. Beyond the wagering action, highlight of the day was Saratoga Snacks 4yo debut for Sciacca and Parcells. The Tale of the Cat son needed a new pilot with Ramon retired and Joel Rosario put in a clinic aboard Snacks, keeping him within striking distance of B Shanny while simultaneously pocketing Mine Over Matter. The big rig posted a 104 Beyer in his 2nd NYB stakes win and could turn up in any number of spots at Saratoga. Gary and his staff have had endless small issues with Saratoga Snacks, with his testicular problem and tender feet nagging at him. Don’t have time for it in print, but I’ll tell a funny story about Coach Parcells reaction to the win on today’s ATR as the show begins its’ 9th season on SXM..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD)

Juveniles starting to emerge with regularity now in NY..

Most Likely: #2 She’s Coal Fired 8-5 6th
Next Best: #5 Yes Liz 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Miss Frost 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Majestic Serenade 5-1 2nd

5th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Ivy Chain 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Shortbread Scotty 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Mama Zee 7-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Blue Ballerina 7-2 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4
3: 1-2-5
4: 2-5
5: 3-5-6-10-11

3x3x2x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

My Pal of Pals back here and draws inside for ideally, the same kind of trip he enjoyed in the maiden win. Win a difficult assignment but with improvement can pick up a check..

Most Likely: #7 Archer Hill 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Power Blast 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Tapitdar 3-1 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #1 My Pal of Pals 20-1 6th

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Longhunter 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #2 Quick Money 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Maui Mark 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Wee Freudian 5-1 3rd

8th: Princess Dixie-NY, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Good group and sure feels like you want an off the pace player..

Most Likely: #7 Miss Valentine 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Erin Enchanted 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Beautiful But Blue 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Lady On the Run 4-1 3rd

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Feels like a potentially chaotic set. Will take my chances with Hear the Footsteps who is very good when right. Sky Blue Pink a personal fave and with races on the page that fit, 15-1 is very inviting. Slan Abhaile is a horse you’ll recall I discussed on ATR with Eddie Kenneally over the winter when Eddie Woods was shopping him around. Blue Devil eventually bought him and he debuts on the grass here for Dale Romans. He is out of Safe Return, a daughter of the great Safely Kept, and if he has any ability on the sod it will have to come from Hard Spun because the dam side has little lawn latitude. Doctor Doss has been away and comes back in Chad Brown’s barn..

Most Likely: #4 Hear the Footsteps 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Sky Blue Pink 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Slan Abhaile 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Doctor Doss 7-2 2nd

10th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

It’s a rough group when 0/13 Chessrate looks likely. Dixie Sparkle just missed two back when Tomas grabbed the lead. Has a little pedigree for first turf and can do same front end gambit with this group..

Most Likely: #10 Diamond Maker 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Dixie Sparkle 4-1 WON ($9.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Vaid 5-2
Super Add: #11 Adirondack Sky 5-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4
8: 2-7
9: 2-3-4-6-9
10: 3-4-5-10-11

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 (3,5,11,12/7/4/3) Paid $92.37

Upsets in Saturday’s Belmont stakes tripped enormous mutuels in the late multis as well as a $74k carryover into Sunday’s state bred-laden sequence. Starformer, 5-1 in the morning but ignored at nearly 16-1 at post time, returned to her norm and swiped the New York under Edgar Prado. Paul Pompa’s Baby J won the Victory Ride as the longest shot on the board and it represented trainer Pat Reynolds first graded stakes win in 4+ years. I thought Starformer was worth using in the multis figuring her Sheepshead Bay was simply too bad to worry about, but left Baby J off the play as she seemed pretty implausible under most scenarios. However, the 3 favored Pletcher and Dutrow fillies didn’t run at all and with Prime Devill ($5.10) and Saints Alive ($19.80) in the late pair, the P4 returned $3,444 for half a buck. Hope everyone did OK. Three NY bred stakes as part of the super-competitive sextet Sunday…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

5-2 fave Native One SCR’d from yesterday’s Victory Ride for this. That may not have been such a great idea as she faces tougher today. Obviously can win, but needs new best and that still might not be enough. Cover in multis but try to beat..

Most Likely: #9 Momentary Magic 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 McCarren Park 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Seasoned Warrior 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Native One 5-2 5th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$74k C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence. Speed, and potential controlling speed, seems likely to come from Stonely the Lonely. Turnback threat obvious from favored Quiet Power and I think Junior Officer has plenty of appeal stalking from outside..

Most Likely: #1 Quiet Power 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Junior Officer 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stonely the Lonely 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Groomedforvictory 5-2 WON ($7.10)

6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Even with top choices from strong outfits (8-5 Tulita; 2-1 Brianna Nicole), there are difficult reads aplenty in Leg B of sequence. Six are making surface switches or turf bows, while Vinhdiation Spot SCR and Ishkabibble are in new hands. Only 1-8-9 seem impossible to me..

Most Likely: #5 Brianna Nicole 2-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Tulita 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #2 High Inflation 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 J Rose Gal 15-1 3rd

7th: 7th NYSS-Cupecoy’s Joy, 3yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group with any number of options including big pricey ones like 8-1 Frosty Bay, 15-1 Stellerite and 30-1 Zekes Surprise. Budget-strainer for P6/P4 plays..

Most Likely: #3 Image of Noon 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Zekes Surprise 30-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Wellspring Legacy 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Frosty Bay 8-1 WON ($18.80)

8th: Shy Groom-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Saratoga Snacks finally back for 4yo debut and working well, but this is a tough return assignment for Gary and Coach Parcells Tale of the Cat colt. Rosario takes over for Ramon and many will want to lean heavily here for P6 single, but host of veteran win types likes Mine Over Matter, Be Bullish and Fiddlers Afleet make it a risky prop. Over and above the elders, B Shanny has done little wrong and Willy Beamin figures to get it back together at some point too..

Most Likely: #5 Saratoga Snacks 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #1 Mine Over Matter 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 B Shanny 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fiddlers Afleet 6-1 4th

9th: 8th NYSS-Spectacular Bid, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

No relief in sight with another good group in this set..

Best Value: #8 Belief System 8-1 11th
Next Best: #5 West Hills Giant 5-2 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #1e Winter Park ownership entry 10-1 7th/8th
Super Add: #4 Orino 20-1 6th

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Most Likely: #8 Atlantic’s Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Uman Candy 6-1 5th
Best Value: #5 All Mine Tonight 10-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Done Smoking 6-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-6
6: 4-5
7: 1-3-5-8
8: 5
9: 8
10: 5-7-8

3x2x4x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-8-9
8: 1-5
9: 1-5-8
10: 5-7-8

5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5,6/5/5) Paid $318.25

Winners were clear enough in Belmont double carryover Wednesday with an average price of $7.30, but putting them all on one ducat proved a little tricky. The pool reached nearly $2,000,000 and 220+ successful tix got back a nice $6,152 making shots well worthwhile. Back with live ATR Wednesday, so wading back into the approaching Holiday Week action with some of the excellent Saturday stakes. Weather in/out on Eastern Seaboard, so some of the turf races may be compromised…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 70th New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Sheepshead Bay (run on soft course) exiters the bulk of this good event, but you then have to take notice of classy additions Regalo Mia, Lady of Shamrock and Dream Peace. Dream Peace had forgivable run off 7 month break in Beaugay and has worked 22f since then. Has run versus top foes in North American forays and adds Rosario too..

Most Likely: #7 Dream Peace 5-2
Best Value: #2 Anjaz 12-1
Next Best: #6 Starformer 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Regalo Mia 8-1

9th: 11th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Nice harbinger for the Test..

Hit by 3 SCR’S including Kauai Katie who will await the Prioress..

Most Likely: #2 Fusaichiswonderful 5-2
Next Best: #6 I’m Mom’s Favorite 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Teen Pauline 1-1
Super Add: #5 Bridgehampton 15-1

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Home bred Wertheimer firster Moravitz (Giant’s Causeway) being given away. Might be fine for these purposes, but obviously has foibles..

Best Value: #7 Unbridled Band 12-1
Next Best: #9 Moravitz 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Prime Devil 7-2
Super Add: #6 Polaris Dream 10-1

11th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #8 Brown Indian 8-1
Next Best: #10 Yield Bogey 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Don’t Say No 6-1
Super Add: #4 Martini Madness 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-7
9: 2-6
10: 5-6-7-9
11: 1-2-4-8-9-10

3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 62nd Triple Bend (G1), 3+, 7f (DD)

Invariably interesting event features 6yo Morning Line and 8yo Rail Trip making their seasonal debuts and Malibu/Potrero Grande hero Jimmy Creed returning after a couple minor setbacks. Top trio from the Los Angeles are here including quirky Camp Victory who won this a year ago of an identical lead up. Presence of Drill is noteworthy out of turf tries considering 3 of his 4 career wins have come at today’s specialized trip including last year’s Laz Barrera over the surface. Pace doesn’t look overly hot and that means tough SOB Comma to the Top will take them a long way. Hard not to look forward to this one..

Most Likely: #2 Jimmy Creed 5-2
Best Value: #9 Camp Victory 5-1
Next Best: #4 Comma to the Top 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Drill 6-1

Good luck!
Steve

Sunday carryover sequence at Belmont derailed early for most when $35 Flowing Mane copped first leg. Later, Galluscio’s Discreet Force ($25) ran a huge race off the 4 month break, holding safe the closing Make the Moment and clearing out remaining live tix. The result is a $248k double C/O into Wednesday’s fun card which includes a single opportunity or two, an excellent overnight stake feature and several viable price plays..

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Terrific opener with 2nd & 3rd choices (Assateague & Stanwyck) no better than than the price options behind them on the ML (4-1 Puzzling, 6-1 Floral Romance, 12-1 Flower Mart)..

Best Value: #7 Flower Mart 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Scenario Analysis 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Floral Romance 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Puzzling 4-1 5th

2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Will be interesting to see how aggressive Castellano is out of the gate with Mister Pippit versus Prado & Film Shot. There’s virtually no pace here and Film Shot will wire if unchallenged..

Most Likely: #6 Film Shot 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Finale 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Minister Colin 12-1 WON ($23.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Mister Pippit 3-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Logan Street SCR
Best Value: #1 Bundestag SCR
Next Best: #6 Liquidity Trap 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Northern Tripp 8-1 3rd

4th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$248k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Start of the P6 and expect many will lean heavily on Cay to Pomeroy, but Clement pace-pressing maidenbreaker Longfor the City and Levine’s late-running Crushin Rock both offer serious threats. Would have to think that bug Franco on King Keene rides hard from the gate pressuring Cay to Pomeroy early and Loongfor the City can take his position up close. Dee Tee’s Corybant entered here with nothing else in the condition book or overnight. Gelding has worked his way back from a pesky hoof infection in March and is ready for a race. Doing great but even best seems only enough for minor award, though Ortiz could sit a nice trip 4th early and hope for a pace scrum and collapse in front of him..

Best Value: #6 Crushin Rock 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cay to Pomeroy 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Longfor the City 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #5 Corybant 20-1 5th

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Another spot where many tickets will concede to 3-5 Crackerjack Jones, but as much as you respect Hushion, it might not be that simple with Greeley Pack, Thnxtomyuncle and Sunnysider all viable alternatives..

Most Likely: #8 Crackerjack Jones 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Greeley Pack 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Thnxtomyuncle 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sunnysider 8-1 4th

<$25 P4 Play:

2: 3-6
3: 1/SCR-4-6–7/SCR
4: 1-3-6
5: 4-8

2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Faves are rock solid but a number of challengers have puncher’s chances..

Most Likely: #1 Lady’s Lunar Luck 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Schillerette 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Sally’s Dream 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Wholelottashakin 5-1 WON ($8.90)

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Perhaps the toughest race in the play with 5-6 of these absolutely eligible for laurels. Mess in a Dress is 10-1 and has one turn/main track efforts that win this. Delightful Dawn off the claim, E Z Passer on the drop, Jolienne, Warrior Marie and Chance Encounter all possible. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Mess in a Dress 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Delightful Dawn 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Chance Encounter 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Jolienne 4-1 4th

8th: Lion Cavern, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Compact field of fast, veteran animals and it should be interesting to see how they line up out of the gate with only Strapping Groom a natural ‘on the lead’ runner. That said, doubt that he’s left alone however with many possessing tactical foot. Saturday’s Charm and Hardened Wildcat own class edges to me and have opportunities for stalking and closing voyages respectively. Terrific group and a fascinating event where the jocks impact decision more than usual..

Best Value: #5 Saturday’s Charm 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Big Business 5-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Strapping Groom 5-1 WON ($11.40)

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f-IT

Weak set includes two droppers from state bred MSW company (Poppy’s Watching, Antone Suavey) and a hodgepodge of misfits, ne’er do wells and what-not..

Most Likely: #6 Poppy’s Watching 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Antone Suavey 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Go to the Net 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Slimshady 5-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-6
5: 8
6: 1-6
7: 3-5-10
8: 2-5-6
9: 6-10

2x1x2x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-5-10
8: 2-5-6
9: 1-6-9-10

2x3x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

As anticipated, a terrific day of racing at Belmont Saturday and a number of well-priced winners tripped a handsome $74k carryover into Sunday’s action. Bill Mott managed to again cleverly annex a G1 3yo filly feature as part of the day’s endeavors, with Juddmonte’s Close Hatches doing to the Mother Goose what Emollient did to the Ashland 2 months ago. Aiding the Joel Rosario mount’s cause was a dreadful performance from Dreaming of Julia who cannot rely on the reasonable excuse she had in the Kentucky Oaks.

Toy Cannon disappointed a bit with what amounted to another of the same kind of race he’s been running all year, mildly rallying and settling for 4th beaten less than 2 lengths. Ideally he’ll get over on the condition at Saratoga. Meanwhile, $52.50 race winner Lawyer Jim ran a stunning race from a difficult post for Lisa Lewis, Bill Schettine and Robby Albarado, attending the pace and staying on for the nod. As testimony to how well Lawyer Jim ran, the others that were part of the pace up front — In My Eyes, River Tune and Petrocelli — finished 8th, 7th and 11th.

There were some nice hits over the course of the afternoon with value players Readthebyline ($12.00), Mighty Reward ($21.20) and Sir Leslie ($21.80) all winning, but the biggest potential hit — a $6,775 .50 P4 bonanza — was elusive thanks to Lawyer Jim and Dreaming of Julia’s flop. Hope everyone did well. Have to try the nice carryover on Day 2 of vacation..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Not part of the P6 but a quiry looking group of ne’er do well NY fillies and I have a nutty price to play. Platinum and Plush is out of the hard-hitting 13x winner Riotous Miss, making her a half to Gitchee Goomee. She might have been crooked as can be fetching just $5,000 as a yearling, but successful members of this family improved with age and she’s working nicely for this 3yo debut. The bug boy gets you 7# on the entire field (12# on the favorite) and 30-1 to start the bidding..

Best Value: #3 Platinum and Plush 30-1
Next Best: #5 Pie’s First Lady 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Grace 3-1
Super Add: #7 Bi Light of Day 15-1

5th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$74k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #12 Restore the Shore 4-1
Next Best: #13 Dendrite 9-2
Best Value: #10 Imreloaded 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Where’s Danny 6-1

6th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 M P Ruckus 7-2
Best Value: #4 Last Run 6-1
Next Best: #13 Economic Forecast 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Fairy Snow 12-1

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Domino’s Count Knickerbocker an old friend from last year’s sweet score at Saratoga. Owen Rico needs to work a trip but should be tighter 2nd/break. Pleasure Principle will go overlooked but is dangerous on front end, as a new gelding and adding hood in group that isn’t overloaded with speed. Big City Boy wanted lawn in last, retains Rosario. Sunlover moves to Kenneally for 3yo debut..

Most Likely: #8 Count Knickerbocker 5-1
Best Value: #7 Pleasure Principle 8-1
Next Best: #12 Owen Rico 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 Big City Boy 12-1

8th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

No shortage of pace on here giving Make the Moment every chance to pass them all, a trip Saez does well..

Best Value: #3 Make the Moment 5-1
Next Best: #1 Kitty Panda 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Bit Bustin 3-1
Super Add: #6 Sharon Spagetti 7-2

9th: Open Mind, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Quintet of missies a bit of a puzzlement with no discernibly concrete pace scenario. Mischief Maker reunites with Maragh 2nd/layoff after non-effort 3 weeks ago in Dancing Renee. Garnet Street was terrific last as Patty Reynolds continues to craft career comeback and seems able to adjust to scenarios. Deep P6 tix will hit all button..

Most Likely: #5 Mischief Maker 3-1
Best Value: #3 Garnet Street 6-1
Next Best: #1 Go Unbridled 5-2

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #8 Top Tier Lass 2-1
Next Best: #7 Normandy 5-1
Best Value: #10 Why Take a Chance 8-1
Exotics Use: #9 Invading Franca 15-1

<$125 P6 Play:

5: 12
6: 2-4-13
7: 7-8
8: 3
9: 1-2-3-4-5
10: 7-8

1x3x2x1x5x2 = 60 x $2 = $120

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 7-8-12
8: 1-3
9: 1-2-3-4-5
10: 7-8-10

3x2x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45.00

Good luck!
Steve