As anticipated, a fun afternoon at Elmont Thursday and the Belmont P6 carryover sequence proved as tricky as it looked with 2 winners earning $68k each. No favorites succeeded in the skein as 3 second choices ($9.10, $6.80, $5.40), a pair of third choices ($16.00, $15.00) and a 5th ($13.20) found the circle. P4 try was scuttled when I got the 8th completely backwards with Alvarado and Justoneatheguys — the opposite speed horse from my speculative pace scenario — going to the front and never looked back.

Challenging nightcap proved a welcome fount when Shirreffs’ 16-1 Poster Girl, the Best Value key idea, ran an anticipated improved race in her second Belmont start to place. Third tab Path of Dreams, surprisingly off at her ML of 6-1, rallied late for a $147 exacta with Poster Girl. Neolexia (7-1) was an impeded third and delivered a bonanza triple for $1,109.50 ($1). Hope everyone did well. Another terrific set of race today at Belmont, but we again have to sweat out possible thunderstorms..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

How often do we get Oklahoma breds debuting in NY? Rolloncat will try to get Billy Badgett off the 0/36 duck and has plenty of zippy drills. H Town Brown is a Big Brown half to D’ funnybone that Paul Pompa bred but sold. (Bought in fact by Jake Ballis). Hobby and Violette send out the only experienced starters in Enlisted Man and Permanent Campaign. Albertrani has Mrs. Weber’s Kingofgoldstreet who is out of her Gazelle winner In the Gold (Zito). Pletcher’s next debuting juvies are Danza, a Street Boss from the outside, and Hallelujah High, a Robsham homebred full to the OK Angel’s Tune..

Most Likely: #4 H Town Brown Late SCR
Next Best: #2 Permanent Campaign 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Enlisted Man 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Danza 7-2 WON ($6.30)

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Kharafa 4-5 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #1 Ampersand 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Selection Sunday 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Irish Lion 12-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wow.. Next to nothing to latch on to in terms of clues with this set of babies all making their first start..

Best Value: #6 Tiger Bourbon 6-1 WON ($9.90)
Next Best: #9 General Jack 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Frogman Mel 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Bashart 4-1 3rd

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Hal Queen’s Sheer Drama a half to Big Drama and full to Little Drama.

Most Likely: #3 Sheer Drama 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Fashion City 7-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Tapitinsilver 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Laguna Girl 5-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4/SCR-5-7
3: 1-2
4: 3-4-5-6-9
5: 2-3

5x2x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50

6th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1e Ownership entry 6-1 6th/7th
Next Best: #4 Sally’s Dream 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Dance With Gio 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Dancing Bridezilla 7-2 5th

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Smokin Candy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ghostly Vision 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Tycoon Cat 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Ego Friendly 7-2 7th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Magical Season 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Hear the Footsteps 5-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #2 Sayaad 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Blingo 7-2 4th

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #5 Imreloaded 3-1 8th
Next Best: #4 M P Ruckus 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Go to the Net 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Harvest King 10-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-6-8
7: 2-4-5-8
8: 3-4-7
9: 4-5

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$40,744 carryover today at Belmont on a somewhat quirky set of races. Thunderstorms possible to add to the intrigue…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$40,744 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 My Sparky 4-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #6 Hey Babe 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Rhonin Victoria 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Delightful Dawn 3-1 2nd

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Miss Da Point (3-1) a play-against stretching out off outlying career best last time..

Best Value: #1 Newbie 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Haldane 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tahoe Tigress 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #6 Necessary Luxury 8-1 5th

6th: MCLM/$16k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Bad bunch o’ coconuts. There’s almost no speed so expect plunging Three Times Bea SCR to light out under one dimensional Tomas. Rufus Ruth another dropping from MSW company while adding hood. Miz Owell deserves another chance. Jump trainer Jim Day should be respected with Controlled Neglect..

Best Value: #5 Rufus Ruth 10-1 4th-DH
Next Best: #2 Miz Owell 7-2 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Controlled Neglect 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Ivanova 5-2 4th-DH

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Not sure why Terminus was made 20-1 here as his race 2 back around this level is plenty competitive. Turns back from mile try versus stiff competition. Won’t mind if the skies open either..

Best Value: #1 Terminus 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Cayambe 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Roman Invasion 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #7 Temecula Creek 8-1 7th

8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Terrific group and none of the 8 would be a surprise. First time turf Garmentos Girl can wire if under-aggressive Alvarado doesn’t go with ouchy Justoneatheguys..

Most Likely: #5 Garmentos Girl 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Alternative Meds 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Win for Kitten 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Eddy Gourmet 4-1 2nd

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT

Inscrutable nightcap with endless options. Pick and pray because there is precious little separating EVERYONE in this field..

Best Value: #5 Poster Girl 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Arriba Anna 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Path of Dreams 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #4 Neolexia 15-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-6
5: 1-3
6: 2-5-6
7: 1-3
8: 5
9: 1-3-4-5

2x2x3x2x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 1-3-6
8: 1-3-5-8
9: 1-3-4-5

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Felt like I was on the way to a big day catching $51.50 ‘Best Value’ Status of Forces in BEL opener, $150 early P4 and opening Summit sets, but series of losses in second half of cards at both venues dampened the ardor. Had great fun at what may be the last Summit of Speed at Calder and the day’s highlight undoubtedly was the reboot of Jackson’s Bend career with his big Smile performance. Lots of thoughts about Saturday’s action and the Florida situation but they will wait for radio Monday. Queen’s Plate Day in TO and a challenging P4 sequence should be fruitful if you can beat the chalks. Hope everyone did OK Saturday!

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 18th Dance Smartly (G2), F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 P3)

Best Value: #5 Moment of Majesty 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Irish Mission 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Coffee Clique 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Solid Appeal 9-2 WON ($13.10)

7th: ON-ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (.20 P3)

Most Likely: #4 Monclava 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Queenstown 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Best Gift of All 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Cautious 7-2 5th

8th: 9th Singspiel (G3), 3+, 12f-T (.20 P4, .20 P3)

Most Likely: #9 Fifty Proof 9-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Aldous Snow 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Forte Del Marmi 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Perfect Timber 10-1 2nd

9th: 60th Highlander (G2), 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF/LATE (.20 P3)

Rothko is by Arch and the move to the turf may be exactly the tonic the Padua homebred needs..

Best Value: #2 Rothko 12-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Night Officer 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Go Blue or Go Home 6-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #4 Big Band Sound 10-1 8th

10th: 154th Queen’s Plate, 3yo, 10f (.20 P3)

Taut edition of this North American standard. The fillies excel in this race and I’d use both. Casse overdue for a Plate, but even with 4 in here, no guarantees today..

Most Likely: #7 Up With the Birds 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Spring in the Air 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Nipissing 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #11 His Race to Win 10-1 8th

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Phil’s Dream 6-1 WON ($10.90)
Next Best: #3 Rei 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Raincoats’ntuxedos 4-1 –
Super Add: #8 Mercenary 9-2 3rd

P4 Play:

8: 2-6-8-9
9: 1–2–4–9–10 (“ALL” with event off turf late)
10: 2-4-7-9-11
11: 1-3-6

4x5x5x3 = 300 x .20 = $60

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Excellent NYB ALW to start the day with top 3 faves (Mobridge, Papa Freud, Mr Cowboy) all credentialed and another trio (Barnards Galaxy, Hepatologist, Status of Forces) looming while offering value..

Most Likely: #3 Barnards Galaxy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Mobridge 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Status of Forces 20-1 WON ($51.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Hepatologist 8-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Darley entry OK while Easement (Jerkens) and Sliver and Onions (Hushion) hit board in underbet debuts. Two interesting firsters here with Shirreffs presenting latest Stronach drop from wonderful Perfect Sting (Supreme Commander) and Michelle Nevin getting Samantha Siegel’s $350k Mineshaft yearling purchase (Touchofstarquality) to the track. Both have worked nicely for this with Supreme Commander seemingly pedigreed for turf routing and Touchofstarpower not possessing a win early page. Tough call after the obvious ones that come in with experience..

Most Likely: #1 Darley entry 4-1 3rd/6th
Best Value: #4 Easement 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Sliver and Onions 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Touchofstarquality 5-2 WON ($14.20)

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Valid 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 So Scott 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Nevada Kid 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Bad Hombre 3-1 WON ($13.60)

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro on ATR Friday, a fascinating ‘Saratoga-esque’ test which includes old hopper fave Spy in the Sky (!) likely prepping for a defense of the A.P. Smithwick. Tough group to decipher overall with pace certain to decide outcome. Arc Above’s 2 wins have come this trip and strip. Needs to improve further but he’s 12-1 on the line and may float higher..

MAJOR SCR’S: 3-5-10

Best Value: #1 Arc Above 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Star Channel 3-1 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Tricky Hat 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tiz Gianni 4-1 7th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Rock On Baby 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #4 Stella Girl 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Chick in Slacks 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Edie 7-2 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5-6
3: 2-3-5-7
4: 1-4-6
5: 4-5

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/3/3,4,5,10,12,13,14,15,16/2,5,6,10) Paid $150.75

6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$41,581 P6 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to the sequence. Tiz for Tat faced nice juveniles last year and could be better than these if ready. Sliver and Onions in the 2nd is a referendum for Mr. O’Leary SCR here as they were a neck apart in debuts. Mentor Cane ran into Flashback in their unvielings. Street Prince another first time 3yo and he found Forty Tales when making first start..

Most Likely: #3 Tiz for Tat 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Mentor Cane 7-2 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #1 Street Prince 15-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Siete C 5-1 5th

7th: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Don’t like this sinkhole event one bit. Looks like there is a lot of pace and that’s exactly when everybody looks at each other out of the gate and grabs hold. I wouldn’t be comfortable in multis unless I had them all. Speed of the speed is veteran returnee Western Prospector who’s working up a storm at FLakes for the comebacker..

Most Likely: #6 Make a Fortune 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 He’s So Chic 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Western Prospector 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Ground Force 4-1 4th

8th: 127th Suburban (G2), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Flat Out looking for 2nd win in this as is Mott. But Flat Out’s win came for Scooter Dickey. Mott’s other Suburban winner? Wekiva Springs!

Most Likely: #4 Flat Out 1-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Fast Falcon 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Alpha 5-1 4th

9th: 96th Dwyer (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Abraham 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Make Your Move 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Battier 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 For Greater Glory 5-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Best Value: #10 Bundestag 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 El Corriente 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Sense of Peace 6-1 12th
Super Add: #7 Smiling Bob 6-1 2nd

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #9 Campogiovanni 3-1 –
Best Value: #8 Eleven Bravo 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Collaborator 15-1 –
Exotics Use: #2 Here Comes Tommy 6-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 3-9
7: 6-8
8: 4
9: 1-5-6
10: 6-10
11: 7-8-9

2x2x1x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 4
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6
10: 6-7-10-12
11: 2-7-8-9

1x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 20th Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (.10 Jackpot P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Determinato 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Regally Ready 4-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Silver Cloud 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Madame Giry 6-1 4th

7th: 38th Carry Back (G3), 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Mico Margarita 3-1 WON ($9.30)
Best Value: #4 City of Weston 4-1 6th
Next Best: #1 R Free Roll 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Rockyshomerun 6-1 7th

8th: 38th Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

The more you look at this the deeper and trickier it gets. Terrific race..

Most Likely: #9 Dreaming of Susie 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Twice Told Tale 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Speedinthruthecity 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Street Girl 8-1 5th

9th: 30th Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

As has been discussed, a fascinating group of accomplished sprinters that have amassed 69 wins and $8,000,000 between them. Several look to recapture lost form including Fred Brei’s beloved Jackson Bend. Hard to argue against any combination you may come up with. Note that Marty Wolfson said on ATR Friday that he was contemplating a SCR ** of Swagger Jack..

Most Likely: #4 Justin Phillip 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Jackson Bend 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Trinniberg 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Close It Out 12-1 6th

10th: 29th Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Judy the Beauty 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Holiday Soiree 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Sweet Cassiopeia 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Oh Carole 15-1 9th

11th: Hollywood Wildcat, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Frolic’s Revenge 4-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Angelica Zapata 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Awesome Belle 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Celestial Kitten 6-1 6th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-4-7
8: 3-9
9: 4-11
10: 1-5-9
11: 1-5-6-11

3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-9
9: 4-11-12
10: 1-5-9
11: 1-5-6-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Escapefromreality 7-5
Best Value: #8 Ambassador Bridge 15-1
Next Best: #1 Leilani’s Ticket 3-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Unraced juvies with few clues. Pletcher (1 Ramsey, 1 Starlight) & Albertrani (1 Baker/Mack, 1 Live Oak) will each run 2, with Smooth Daddy (Albertrani) a half to good win early sibs Prairie Charm & Prairie Lites. If Kingofgoldstreet is the Live Oak runner, he is 2nd foal out of the Zito-trained GSW In the Gold. Parent (KMc, Darley) is from the Stonerside line being out of Issaqueena, dam of MGSW Tizaqueena (Stidham). Working well, but being by A.P. Indy, it would be a surprise if he popped at first ask going 5/8ths. Watch board for clues here..

Best Value: #4 Smooth Daddy 5-1
Next Best: #5 All in Blue 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 We Miss Artie 5-2
Super Add: #7 Patent 4-1

3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Native Singer 2-1
Best Value: #4 Bernardo 4-1
Next Best: #5 Street Lord 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Here He Fitz 7-2

4th: Eventail-NY, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Torn up by SCR’s..

Most Likely: #5 Discreet Marq 2-1
Next Best: #7 Roses for Romney 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Unbelievable Dream 7-2
Super Add: #8 Adriatic Dream 12-1

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

More 2yo’s but more clues here with turf involved. How about the ultimate Melnyk homebred debuting on the rail? A Flower Alley filly out of Sealy Hill! Personal favorite alert for me as Fast Cookie gets her 2nd foal on the track, a Darley Tapit grey, Macaroon..

Most Likely: #5 Richies Party Girl 7-2
Best Value: #9 Acquaint 10-1
Next Best: #8 Ready’s Legend 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Macaroon 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5
3: 4-5-6-7
4: 3-5-7
5: 5-7-8-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Thepowersthatbe 6-1
Next Best: #1 White Crane 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Run a Dubb Dubb 5-1
Super Add: #4 Notesfromabroad 4-1

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lawless Miss 5-2
Best Value: #1 Liz Lemon 10-1
Next Best: #3 Mah Jong Maddnes 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Normandy 9-2

8th: Fairy Garden, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Samitar obviously can win and maybe she wins easily, but 9-5 or thereabouts is a big underlay..

Most Likely: #3 Future Generation 7-2
Next Best: #9 Samitar 9-5
Exotics Use: #5 Silver Screamer 15-1
Super Add: #4 Baffle Me 15-1

9th: Poker (G3), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Data Link 6-5
Best Value: #5 Lubash 5-1
Next Best: #6 King Kreesa 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Howe Great 6-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #1 Scotus 2-1
Best Value: #9 Wishingonadream 15-1
Next Best: #5 Radiohead 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Unaccountable 4-1

<$25 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4-6-8
8: 3-8
9: 4
10: 1-3-5-9

6x2x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve