As Tom Durkin says in the familiar Spa advertising, ‘the season you wait for all year’ has arrived, and a very challenging 10 race card is upon us. It’s a big week with Del Mar’s opening Wednesday, the Spa stand kicking today and superb stakes action throughout North America through Sunday. Saratoga will be contentious as always this summer and it won’t take more than a good idea or two any afternoon to make your Toga play successful.

I hope many will get a chance to make a trip to ‘the foothills of the Adirondacks’ between now and Labor Day. With Saratoga’s 150th anniversary celebration and a lot of the contentiousness around New York racing abating, it feels as if this is going to be a great season.

Best of luck for Saratoga 2013!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Have had odd run of meet opening hits the last 3 years that has included $28 Nine O Wonderful, $14 Boat and Kerry Metiver’s $48 Dontstealmyland. leading to early advantages. That doesn’t always happen, and patience, discipline and determination are paramount to success over these next 7 weeks. This edition of the lid-lifter looks wide open, so don’t be shy about trying to start your meet off with a bang..

Most likely: #10 Cheyenne Nation 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 State Flag 10-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Hardest Core 9-2 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Money in Motion 12-1 11th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P:3, DD)

Droppers, surface changers, barn switchers.. Tough way to kick off the first P4 of the year. 2012’s version of this race on opening day produced Roy Lerman’s $75 winner Presumptive. Gary Gullo says he’ll likely SCR #2 Springcourt (20-1) due to the heat. Interesting candidate if staying in..

Most Likely: #10 Volcano Run 7-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Short Shrift 10-1 WON ($30.40)
Next Best: #9 Dual Citizen 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Yankee Fourtune 6-1 8th

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Pletcher SCR’s apparent stronger half of the entry..

Best Value: #3 Predicate 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Art of the Game 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Stopchargingmaria 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Super Add: #6 J. Quirk 10-1 2nd

4th: On the Bus-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Hessonite 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Inimitable Romanee 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Shakeira 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mystic City 12-1 4th

5th: MSW-NY, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Some well bred NYers here including Hangingwithsonny (Half to 6x winner Hangingonaprayer); Flying K C (Half to Mott turf winner Mobridge); Michonne (Half to SW I’m a Numbers Guy); Talk to Me (Half to quickish winners Berry Bound & Wild Berry). Maker slaps Lasix on to I’m Gonna Flip and reaches for Castellano..

Most Likely: #5 I’m Gonna Flip 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Irish Sweepstakes 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Michonne 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Flying K C 4-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-8-9-10-12
3: 1-3-6-7
4: 3
5: 2-3-5-7

6x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (12/1,2/1,2,3,8/7,9) Paid $86.50

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Jere. Englehart’s Irish Whisper is by Langfuhr out of City Zip mare Tishmeister. Move to lawn should suit, has plus style for assignment and maiden-breaking effort from May takes this..

Most Likely: #8 Irish Whisper 5-1 12th
Best Value: #2 Invading Humor 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Subtle 4-1 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Neck of the Moon 3-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Deep, outstanding group. I’m reaching around for viable prices..

Best Value: #7 New Line 10-1 WON ($24.80)
Next Best: #6 Strike One 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Indy’s Illusion 12-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Coin Flip 8-1 9th

8th: 6th James Marvin (G3), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Other than the American Oaks at HOL, can’t think of a stakes race that has become a fixture as quickly as the Marvin. Another solid cast this year and another ‘A’ race from Souper Speedy should be imposing..

Most Likely: #3 Souper Speedy 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Sage Valley 5-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Politicallycorrect 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Hello Lover 15-1 3rd

9th: 95th Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Easy to conceive Bahnah not reprising her Churchill debut. Brazen Persuasion the only filly here that has won at the distance, a favorite angle in these early season juvy events. John Robb will be looking to sweep the opening weekend baby bumps with Jonesin for Jerry here and flashy Debt Ceiling in the Sanford Sunday. Pletcher has cross-entered Yes Liz in the Sanford by the way, so it will be interesting to see what he does at SCR time..

Most Likely: #4 Brazen Persuasion 3-1 WON-DH ($2.80)
Next Best: #1a (POE) Yes Liz 5-2 4th/3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Bahnah 7-5 WON-DH ($2.40)

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #2 A Better Tomorrow 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Hudson Miracle 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunbio 5-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Sonnyandpally 8-1 WON ($25.80)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
8: 3
9: 1-4–5
10: 2-7-8-9

8x1x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Entertaining and pretty lucrative opening day at Del Mar Wednesday, as other than Gabriel Charles arriving a beat late in the Oceanside, a lot of things went right. Value player Greeley Awesome ran huge in the 1st half of the co-feature and boosted the tri/super while nightcap winner (and my Dime a Day play) Spring Up finished the day with a $12.40 tote. Although the Gabriel Charles beat cost the P4, Gervinho ($7.80), Diamond of Blue ($10.80) and Love de Car ($7.60) combined between the 6th-8th for a generous $125 P3. A lot fun yesterday and the good action bodes well for a great summer at Del Mar. Hope you did great!

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Conkate 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Zia Zia Zia 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Belle de Lune 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #4 Sweet and Lowdown 5-1 4th

6th: Cal-MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Foogard 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Slewpy Again 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Chatter Up 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Exponentially 4-1 3rd

7th: ALW/$, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

The 3 major players all are returning from 7-9 month vacations. Reneesgotzip has shopped for her spot and owns win over strip..

Most Likely: #4 Reneesgotzip 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #6 Gypsy Robin 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Executiveprivilege 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Curvy Cat 8-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Te Rapa 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #8 Tamarack Smarty 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Beachcombing 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Fear the Beard 7-2 10th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Black N Beauty 15-1 9th

<@50 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-6
6: 1-3
7: 1-4-6
8: 1-3-5-8-9-10

3x2x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/1,10,11,13,14/4/9) Paid $138.25

The summer racing season becomes reality over the next 72 hours Del Mar’s renewal today and Saratoga’s Friday and both venues look poised for strong seasons. Certainly the opening day cards for both fan favorites get things off on the right foot. As discussed Tuesday with Brad Free and Jon White, remember that the speed of the Del Mar polytrack is greatly influenced by heat and humidity. When temperatures are coolish, the surface is tighter and has played honestly for speed. But when the mercury soars, the strip gets torpid and tiring and favors the rallying type. Two divisions of the Oceanside today of course and some good supporting action.

Welcome to summer… Enjoy it! Labor Day shows up fast..

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ivanho 5-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #3 Kingpin Ryno 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Dreamcatcher 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Cyclometer 7-2 4th

5th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD)

P6 players — and the rest of us today — will at least be able to get some clues as to live baby girls because there’s precious little to grab hold of here after the $300k+ O’Neill Tapit Cal Gal (:10.0 at OBS April) and Kaleem Shah homebred My Lucky Rose from Baffert. Even when you see a hot working miss like Betty Bing Bing, you’re tempered by Peter Eurton’s 0/31 stat with first time starters..

Most Likely: #10 Cal Gal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Singleinthelast 12-1 6th
Next Best: #6 My Lucky Rose 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Cause Ur My Babe 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Betty Bing Bing 6-1 2nd

6th: Oceanside, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

‘Softer’ of the 2 divisions but still solid. Ward shows up with Wes Welker’s Undrafted who after many different tests this spring, appears to have aptitude for today’s exact assignment: Turf miles. Anderson gets visiting Rosario back aboard..

Most Likely: #5 Undrafted 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Gervinho 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Greeley Awesome 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Freakin Rocket 7-2 3rd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Royal Meridian 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Diamond of Blue 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #1 Magic Beam 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Legal Separation 4-1 4th

8th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Tricky feeling group of Cal-bred maidens..

Most Likely: #4 Bro’s Bro 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hope ‘n Pray 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Love de Car 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Gentleman Pete 7-2 4th

9th: Oceanside, 3yo, 1m-T (DD)

2nd division features Derby Trail refugee Den’s Legacy back on preferred surface. Anticipated return of Gabriel Charles comes here and he’s been working up a storm. Joelito is 2/2 turf miling. Brad Free believes the imported Si Sage has a Euro class edge..

Best Value: #2 Gabriel Charles 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Den’s Legacy 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Joelito 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Saint Prado 20-1 9th

10th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Watch out for the AE’s should they draw in. Valid But True and AE-Wildcat Candy are NEW geldings. Follow https://twitter.com/bobike1 for gelding info on SoCal circuit. This thing is a quagmire. Eight of the 12 look eligible to me and 10 of the 14 adding the AE’s!

NOTE: #13 Wildcat Candy DOES draw in..

Most Likely: #12 Spring Up 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #2 Jimmy the Whip 5-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Valid But True 20-1 12th
Exotics Use: #13 Wildcat Candy 7-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 In a Wine Tizzy 9-2 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-6
8: 2-4-5-7
9: 2-4-7
10: 1-2-12-13

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Spent lion’s share of Saturday afternoon and evening in Ft. Lauderdale airport and was starting to get as impatient with the racing results as the 5+ hour weather-related delay. A parade of disappointing performances from some nice horses made continuity difficult, but a terrific effort from unheralded Nellie Cashman in the Virginia Oaks at 19-1 erased all the frustration. In Chicago, Strathnaver and La Tia (Modesty) and Treasury Bill (Coach Jimi Lee) seriously underachieved and Stormy Len ran well in the American Derby but fell just short. Optimizer was a complete and surprising no show in the Man O’War as Boisterous capitalized on the chance at a G1. Earlier, Notacatbutallama continued to prove he is more than a novelty besting a good group in the Solar Splendor, while Noble Tune continued to demonstrate that he hasn’t improved an ounce since last year. Rydilluc justified the wide ‘bet against’ views in the Virginia Derby as War Dancer, Charming Kitten and Jack Milton — separated by a head at the wire — established themselves as the best 3yo lawn lopers.

The day worked out better than OK overall thanks to a good view of the top 4 finishers in the Virginia Oaks, as Tres Abbott’s improving Nellie Cashman courageously captured the G3 at a $41.60 tote. The PA-bred Mineshaft filly jumped up significantly when moved to the lawn and stretched out in her last 2 starts and figured to equally relish the extra sixteenth at New Kent. Forest Boyce earned her first graded stakes win and tripped a $61.30 exacta with favored Praia, a $186.00 tri with Three Hearts 3rd and $1,382.40 super with Hedonemewrongsong. Good day of racing and I hope many got whole with Nellie Cashman…

Didn’t arrive in Greenwich until 4:30a after arriving at Islip at 1a and am late getting out the Hollywood closing day thoughts… Nice C/O for the must-pay sequence. Belmont closes today obviously as well after an excellent meet. Del Mar and Saratoga on the horizon!

HOLLYWOOD PARK — CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$127k Mandatory Pay C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #7 Divine Notion 5-2 (A)
Next Best: #6 Teton County 5-1 (B)
Best Value: #11 Sofos Quick Logic 10-1 (C)
Exotics Use: #8 Buck’s Tornado 4-1 (C)

7th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ethnic Dance 9-5 (A)
Next Best: #2 Volkonsky 5-2 (A)
Exotics Use: #7 Elusive Journey 6-1 (C)
Super Add: #5 Heat Flash 4-1 (C)

8th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Indian Classic 5-2 (A)
Next Best: #4 Night Badger 4-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #2 Charlie’sboywins 6-1 (C)
Super Add: #6 Hugo Pirate 15-1 (C)

9th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

NOTE: Shakahari a relatively late SCR (4:52pm ET) out of the MSW 9th..

Most Likely: #8 Shakahari 7-2 (A) Late SCR
Next Best: #4 American Pride 5-2 (B)
Best Value: #10 Dance With Fate 9-2 (B)
Exotics Use: #3 Rum Point 5-1 (C)

10th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 U S Citizen 5-2 (A)
Next Best: #3 Dixieland Blues 5-1 (A)
Exotics Use: #8 Sacred Ovation 6-1 (B)
Super Add: #1 Insideondoutside 12-1 (C)

11th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Saint Leo 3-1 (A)
Next Best: #2 Dramatic Allan 7-2 (A)
Best Value: #4 El Tovar 10-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #3 The Gatekeeper 4-1 (B)
Super Add: #9 Quick Cielo 8-1 (C)

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 7
7: 2-8
8: 4-8
9: 4-10
10: 2-3
11: 2-3-4-11

1x2x2x2x2x4 = 64 x $2 = $128

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 4-8
9: 3-4-10
10: 1-2-3-8
11: 2-3-4-11

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$36k C/O starts here..

Very tricky start to sequence with host of well-matched contenders and presence of 3-1 Master Cip who is better than these on dirt but an unknown quantity trying lawn. Sire Master Command gets plenty of grass winners (20% overall), but the female — while distinguished — has modest turf positives. Dam Ticky Tacky is a half sister to excellent ’94 Malibu winner Powis Castle (Rare Brick) and ’97 La Troienne heroine Star of Goshen (Lord at War). An early Mike Puype trainee, Star of Goshen saw her career cut short by injury but has gone on to get Pioneerof the Nile and Forefathers as a broodmare..

Best Value: #8 Northern Tripp 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Master Cip 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Sky Blue Pink 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Suileabhain 12-1 3rd

7th: Solar Splendor, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Excellent soph group that stayed home rather than try Virginia or American Derby. Feels like 2/3rds of this group can win..

Best Value: #2 Chamois 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Balance the Books 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 North Slope 5-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Notacatbutallama 4-1 WON ($13.00)

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another exceedingly competitive group..

Best Value: #2 Fly Ride 6-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Best Actor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Minescape 10-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Thunder Brew 4-1 3rd

9th: Man O’ War (G1), 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Big opportunity for Boisterous to garner G1 win with Point of Entry sidelined. Optimizer a millionaire if 1st/2nd here and has every chance to get himself a top shelf stake skin..

Most Likely: #1 Optimizer 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Boisterous 9-5 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #7 Al Khali 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Exclusive Strike 12-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Swiss Tart 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Regal Strike 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Good Feng Shui 5-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Little Wyatt 10-1 6th

11th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Castellano (Fiddlers Chico) rode Freight last time, so hopefully he is aware that he cannot let that one get away too easily up front because there isn’t much here in the way of early lick..

Most Likely: #9 Fiddlers Chico 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Ocean Storm 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Ballymurphy 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Unbridled Band 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Solo Approach 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 1-2-3-5-9
8: 2-11
9: 1
10: 11
11: 1-2-9-10-11

2x5x2x1x1x5 = 100 x $2 = $200

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-5-7-9-11
9: 1-6
10: 9-11
11: 1-2-7-9-10-11

6x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nick Tammaro produced some ugly numbers on Maker away from Kentucky on ATR Friday offering hope for beating Dark Cove. Suntracer reportedly leaning towards start here as opposed to Arlington H. later. Live in Joy will be winging away up front..

Most Likely: #1 Dark Cove 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Live in Joy 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Ioya Bigtime 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 The Pizza Man 5-2 3rd

8th: Modesty H. (G3), F&M-11.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

As in most of these Million Day Previews, expect an isolated leader and in this it’s La Tia. Strathnaver the class but may not get the necessary pace in front of her..

Most Likely: #5 Strathnaver 3-1 8th
Next Best: #4 La Tia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Embarr 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Colonial Flag 5-2 6th

9th: American Derby (G3), 3yo, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Mongolian Saturday the loose leader here with Coastal Breeze setting up shop behind. Wide open event..

Best Value: #9 Stormy Len 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 General Election 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Procurement 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Moro Tap 10-1 6th

10th: Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

As mentioned yesterday with Nick and Mike Beer, Beer Garden — even with Leparoux — should be on the engine here..

Best Value: #3 Najjaar 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Rahystrada 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Dullahan 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Beer Garden 20-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4
8: 4-5
9: 1-2-9
10: 1-2-3-5-6-7

4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

11th: Coach Jimi Lee, 3yo, 7f (DD)

Feels like a scrambler. Curious if Pitch N Roll (12-1) makes the trip from Erie for this because he’d be a fun inclusion if he does. Would be appropriate if Jimmy DiVito (Coach Jimi Lee’s trainer) were to win this with Muppet Man. Treasury Bill’s 2 flops were attempts past 7f..

Best Value: #4 Next Speaker 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Treasury Bill 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Pitch N Roll 12-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Believe in Kitten 15-1 4th

COLONIAL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Virginia Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD)

Expecting Hold Our Destiny, who ran at DEL Wednesday, to SCR and that could put Nellie Cashman on a free lead. She has been a different filly since moving to the grass and stretching out and could take them a long way at a huge number..

Most Likely: #5 Praia 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Nellie Cashman 20-1 WON ($41.60)
Next Best: #8 Three Hearts 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Hedonemewrongsong 20-1 4th

7th: Virginia Derby (G2), 3yo, 10f-Outer Turf (P3, DD)

I’ll pass on Rydilluc at 10f facing authentic pace pressure..

Most Likely: #3 CHARMING KITTEN 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Jack Milton 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Fear the Kitten 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Gefest 20-1 9th

.50 TRI: 3/5 with 3/5 with 4-6-8-9-10 (2x1x5 = 10 x .50 = $5)