Belmont Double Carryover proved as challenging as advertised as a single deserving ticket, purchased through NYRA Rewards, negotiated the sequence nabbing a $423,424 prize. The opening leg demolished a majority of plays immediately as Jeremiah Englehart FTS (first time starter) Summerdale debuted huge at 27-1. He’s So Chic proved unreliable at 4-5 in Leg B, but Chasing Moonlight was certainly on a good number of tix. Mott FTS My Place (5-2) held off 14-1 Sylvia T who would almost certainly have tripped a third carry had she won.

I used bowing Princess Adelyn in the P6/P4, but she knocked a lot out paying $21.80. Cheyenne Nation ruined my P4 play winning the 8th at 6-1 and should have at least been the subject of an inquiry having drifted out to hinder Tiz Gianni and Border Song to a certain degree. 4-1 third choice Ale closed out the sequence in a photo with 7-2 Logan Street who would have rewarded the same winning play.

Hope everyone did OK. New Thursday BEL-PEN P4 debuts today linking the Belmont late double with Penn National’s opening pair. The wager is a .50 minimum with attractive 15% takeout…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Away since November, Bellamy Brew has a big chance if ready..

Best Value: #6 Bellamy Brew 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #1e Jacobson entry 3-1 2nd/4th
Exotics Use: #3 Hierro 8-5 5th

2nd: MCLM/$65k, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Hard not to link Sea Hunt and Frogman Mel in some kind of pithy quip and in exotics plays. Rumblefortheroses a half to turf route stake winner Tajaaweed..

Most Likely: #6 Rumblefortheroses 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Sea Hunt 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Frogman Mel 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #1a Nauset Beach 3-1 4th

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Short field but a confusing lot. Blinkers and J. Ortiz could spell major improvement for Mei Ling (5-1)..

Best Value: #1 Mei Ling 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Guilty Verdict 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Julia Tutwiler 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Divided Attention 4-1 WON ($12.40)

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Big SCR of Bricks and Clicks..

Most Likely: #4 Correspondent 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Elusive Design 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dust Em Mick 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Chelsea Road 3-1 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Don’t know what it will take to get Thnxtomyuncle over. Looks like One Red Cat is the likely culprit to beat him here..

Most Likely: #7 One Red Cat 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Thxtomyuncle 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Escape to the Moon 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 D J’s Hope 10-1 5th

>$50 P5 Play:

Super tricky P5 today..

1: 1-6
2: 6-8
3: 1-2
4: 1-4-9-12
5: 2-6-7

2x2x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7-8
3: 1-2-4-6
4: 1-4-9-12
5: 2-6-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Maggie’s Lad Late SCR (Gate entanglement)
Next Best: #1e Generazio entry #1a Late SCR (Ran off)/#1 Purse only
Exotics Use: #4 Forever Utopia Late SCR (Ran off)
Super Add: #11 Hushhushmushmush 12-1 4th (For wagering purposes)

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Le Deluge 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Formulaforsuccess 5-1 WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Viscount 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Malibu Way 5-2 4th

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (BEL-PEN P4, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Much Stronger 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Island Sunset 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Assured Victory 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Frostys Whirl 30-1 8th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Best Value: #3 Villanella 15-1 WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #12 Lisini 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Queen Mercury 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Mess in a Dress 30-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1/SCR–3/SCR–4/SCR-8-11
7: 1-2-3-8
8: 5
9: 1-3-8-9-12

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

<$50 BEL-PEN P4 Play:

PEN 1ST OFF THE TURF

BEL 8: 1-5-6
BEL 9: 1-3-8-12
PEN 1: 3-4-5-6
PEN 2: 2-5

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Next to no speed signed on here. Looks like you need the 1-2-3 to assure safe passage in opening leg of P5..

Most Likely: #1 Wedding Toast 9-5
Best Value: #2 Galloping Giraffe 3-1
Next Best: #3 Cue the Moon 7-5

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Exceedingly tricky maiden group routing on lawn with Chad Brown firsters bookending the group of 7. #7 Shadow Banking (Harlan’s Holiday) is full brother of terrific Stormy Len. Request is a $400k Dynaformer whose immediate family is modest but whose dam Shades of Gold (Seeking the Gold) is a half sister of the very good Harbor View turf runner Fortitude (Cure the Blues) whom Allen Jerkens helmed. McGaughey-Phipps H/B Social Affair (Giant’s Causeway) is a half to MSW Dancing Forever (Rahy).Albertrani’s Smooth Daddy exits highly rated Spa MDN heat that produced Base Case Scenario and next out winner Bobby’s Kitten..

Best Value: #5 Smooth Daddy 4-1
Next Best: #7 Shadow Banking 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Danaus 12-1
Super Add: #2 Social Affair 5-1

3rd: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Market Blaster 7-2
Next Best: #5 Dapper Draper 7-5
Exotics Use: #3 El Dreamer 5-1
Super Add: #7 Streets of Fire 5-1

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$137k DBL C/O starts here..

Treacherous group to start C/O sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Star Grazing 3-1 (A)
Best Value: #13 Lucky Nancy E. 10-1 (A)
Next Best: #2 Easy Living 4-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #8 Lil’ Zilla 8-1 (B)

“C” Considerations (In order of preference): #6 Lehigh Alum 15-1; #9 Maybry’s Fortune 5-1; #3 Manner of Speaking 8-1

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Precipitous drop for He’s So Chic who couldn’t be prepared for a Saratoga start at all. Has been able to string 3 works together at least readying for this spot but clearly there’s been issues. As discussed with Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, appears one of the all-or-nothing propositions for carryover players..

Most Likely: #3 He’s So Chic 7-5 (A)
Next Best: #6 Chasing Moonlight 6-1 (B)
Best Value: #4 Buckeye Heart 8-1 (C)
Exotics Use: #2 Sensational Slam 15-1 (C)

<$50 P4 Play:

1: 1-2-3
2: 5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 3-6

3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 5-8
4: 1-2-8-13
5: 2-3-4-6

3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Quandary event with 2nd timers Barafg (KMc) and Delany Road (Clement) most eligible for improvement to laurels. Firsters Addison Run (Larry Murray up from Laurel), My Place (Hot-working Elusive Quality from Mott) and Berkette (Wide drawn for Pletcher-Johnny V) all merit consideration..

Most Likely: #2 Baragh 7-2 (A)
Next Best: #8 Delany Road (B)

“C” Considerations (In order of preference): #1 Addison Run 12-1; #7 My Place 3-1; #10 Berkette; #8 Ever Awesome 12-1

7th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Another spot where many may seek to rely on narrow approach with So Royal the focus, but there are several here well within range of the favorite..

Most Likely: #2 So Royal 2-1 (A)
Best Value: #9 Love That Kelly 12-1 (B)
Next Best: #4 Princess Adelyn 6-1 (B)
Exotics Use: #8 Maintain the Magic 8-1 (C)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #2 Border Song 6-1 (A)
Next Best: #4 Hothersal 2-1 (A)
Exotics Use: #7 Film Shot 3-1 (C)
Super Add: #3 Razorbill 4-1 (C)

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Wow.. Some end to terrific day of challenging puzzles. Perhaps 2 could be eliminated here in first pass..

Best Value: #2 Papa Freud 8-1 (A)
Next Best: #10 Ale 7-2 (A)
Exotics Use: #1 Yo Blue 5-2 (B)

“C” Considerations (In order of preference): #8 Flowing Mane 15-1; #5 Logan Street 5-1; #4 Trainingforsuccess 12-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-10
5: 3-6
6: 2
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-10

2x2x1x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-8
7: 2 4-9
8: 2-4
9: 1-2-4-5-8-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Mystery Tour of racetracks hit its’ 4th stop in 6 days Saturday with Belmont opener on the heels of Saratoga (Mon.) and Del Mar (Wed.) closures and Churchill (Fri.) opener. Inaugural New York P5 went nicely with a $195 return off the $45 punch as the wager took a solid toehold immediately with a $238k pool. The day produced a number of productive thoughts throughout, including favorite angles like Clement firsters over a mile (7th: $13.00 Bikini Beauty) and open turf route (9th: $762 triple through $25.20 Unprecedented). The day rolled on beyond Belmont with Kentucky Downs, Arlington, Louisiana Downs and Churchill extended the action deep into the evening. Hope everyone did well! $43k carryover at Belmont for day two. “Loose on the Lead” 10-11a so not a lot of time for details beyond the tabs..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Feels like a much tougher P5 today than Saturday. Watch Double probable prices for clues in the 2 maiden events that start the sequence..

Most Likely: #3 From the Point 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Executive Office 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Geaux Mets 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Coviello 6-1 3rd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

No one here would shock, but you may just need to stand with the 3 ML faves for austerity purposes..

Most Likely: #5 Rebranded 5-2
Best Value: #2 Long Water 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Mosler 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Master Lightening 10-1 2nd

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sweet Maxine 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 L B’s Expression 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Sweet Hot Toddy 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Kitty Panda 3-1 4th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Color Me Kitten is a wire candidate..

Best Value: #2 Color Me Kitten 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Revealing Moment 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Group Therapy 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Blue Sixty Four 15-1 6th

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Challenging end to P5 and start of carryover sequence. 5-6-8-10-11-12 appear the players..

$43k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 A Better Tomorrow 4-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Ocala Jim 15-1 WON ($38.60)
Next Best: #10 Mister Dooley 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Sunnysider 7-2 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-2-3-4
2: 2-5
3: 4-6-8
4: 2-4
5: 5-10-11

4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5
3: 4-6-7-8
4: 2-4
5: 5-10-11

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/8/4/11) Paid $350.25

6th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

St. Sincere a serious single consider with wire opp..

Most Likely: #4 St. Sincere 3-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Shortcoming 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 McIlroy 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Fullcontrol 15-1 10th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Crescent 3-1 12th
Best Value: #4 Otoy 12-1 WON ($21.80)
Next Best: #6 Ichiban Warrior 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Therios 6-1 9th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Red Vine 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Ghost Hunter 3-1 9th
Best Value: #1 Master Wesley 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Yellow Mountain 8-1 7th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Kiss Me Lola 7-2 9th
Best Value: #8 Lawless Miss 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Sustained 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Yes It’s Pink 4-1 3rd

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #2 Orino 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Wishingonadream 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Wish Exultation 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Noosh’s Tale 4-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5-6-8-10-11-12
6: 4
7: 8
8: 1-2-9
9: 1-2-7-8
10: 2

6x1x1x3x4x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-8
8: 1-2-9
9: 1-2-7-8
10: 2-5-7-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky start to NY’s first P5 sequence with nearly all signed on eligible to win in certain scenarios. Objective should be beating vulnerable 2-1 Zivo who may be tighter after the comeback from year off. Go Get the Basil and Smooth Bert turn back out of the Albany. Consistent Quiet Power provides value..

SCR NOTES: Bake Shop one of 4 highly notable contending SCR’s today..

Most Likely: #1 Go Get the Basil 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Quiet Power 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Zivo 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Smooth Bert 7-2 WON ($7.40)

2nd: NY-ALW/M1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

One or the other of the top pair should stay on to the wire..

SCR NOTES: Huge out with My Uptown Gal exiting..

Most Likely: #8 Uncle Southern 5-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #1 Fantastic Eyes 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Scribbling Sarah 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Bonatini 8-1 7th

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Many P5 tix will depend on Blithely. Ms. Sylvia A. is a half to the very good Chief Talkeetna..

Most Likely: #1 Blithely 8-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Ms. Sylvia A. 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Cryptic Comet 4-1 2nd

4th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Raging Daoust 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 Drink With Pride 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Itsagoodtendollars 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Dighton 8-1 7th

5th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Well-matched $35k claimers. If it’s not Jacobson first off the claim (#7 Start Jumping), it feels like it could be any of another quintet of players (3-5-6-9). Race is made tricky by uncertainty of how pace lays out. Serpe reaches for 7# bug Franco which says he wants first out winner on front end here. Luzzi (El Cuadro) and J. Ortiz (Pass the Pico SCR’D) have option of engaging or stalking. How they play it will determine if this gets hot or not and Start Jumping can adjust to either scenario..

Best Value: #7 Start Jumping 5-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #3 Jumpinofftheedge 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Cool Under Fire 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Harley 8-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-5-6-7
2: 8
3: 1
4: 1-2-3-5-6-7
5: 3-5-7

5x1x1x6x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 5 (5/8/1/6/7,8) Paid $195.00

<$25 P4 Play:

2: 8
3: 1
4: 1-2-3-5-6-7
5: 3-5-7-9

Main: 1x1x6x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (8/1/6/7,8) Paid $69.00 (.50 = $34.50)

6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

The Midwest Thoroughbreds operation launches the training career of Ness assistant Laura Perillo here as she sends sends out her first runners in a potent entry..

Most Likely: #6 Street Lord 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #1a Charlie’s Punch 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Tycoon Cat 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Greeley’s Law 20-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Bikini Beauty 8-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #10 Miss Super Quick 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Acquant 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Mobilize 4-1 2nd

8th: 55th Bowling Green (G2), 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Boisterous 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 London Lane 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Finnegan’s Wake 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Hyper 5-2 WON ($7.90)

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

5-2 Griffin Rock (1 for 40 career) and 3-1 Hockey Pop (MCLM/$18k winner at MTH) are hardly fear-inducing..

Best Value: #6 Cash Your Ticket 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Shertzer 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Unprecedented 15-1 WON ($25.20)
Super Add: #4 You Tarzan 15-1 5th

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT

Most Likely: #6 Insighting 5-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Bob and Jim 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ragin River 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Poppy’s Watching 3-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-10
8: 1-3
9: 2-4-6-7-8-9
10: 2-6-8-10

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Bit of a chess match with everyone bunched up..

Most Likely: #2 Bull Dozer 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ghost Is Clear 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Shared Property 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hamiltonian 4-1 3rd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

If left alone too long, Grand Contender could wire..

Most Likely: #4 Hard Aces 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Grand Contender 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #1 Strike One 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Drogue 6-1 2nd

6th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Ugly group and you can sense chaos. Mogge drops, cuts and blinks with Sunset Bella and last time he did that triple whammy, Sweet Joan got beat a zot at Tampa..

SCR NOTE: Main speed Cross City coming out changes pace scenario a lot. Tamazula Rose looks like front end now but Electric Temptress may lay closer..

Most Likely: #2 Electric Temptress 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #9 Too Cool 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Sunset Bella 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Granny Grump 30-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Argumental 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Our Prize 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Turbalo 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Hondo Wando 3-1 2nd

$60 P4 Play:

4: 1-2-5-6
5: 1-4-5
6: 1-2-3-9-11
7: 6-8

4x3x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

8th:MSW, 3+, 8.5f (3, DD)

Wildly competitive group of maidens that have not lost their promise. Margolis now with Smooth Air brother Air Squadron (Curlin); 4yo Smuggler son Risky Asset (Smart Strike) SCR’D, last seen on Belmont Day undercard in Moreno’s maiden-breaker, must have been privately sold to Vickie Foley by Phipps..

Most Likely: #8 Scout Leader 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Warrior 6-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Arriving 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Best Request 9-2 5th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Exploring 3-1 WON-DH ($4.80)
Next Best: #8 Escape Artist 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Saint X. 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Mean Marine 15-1 7th

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Herp 6-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #9 Runaway Pepper 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Wheemaway 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Arrived Home 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Glint 8-1 7th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2-9
7: 6-8
8: 4-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-8
10: 2-9

2x2x6x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 4-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-8
10: 2-4-5-9

2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48