BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$36k C/O starts here..

So hard to trust Flores Island as a single with the 2nd’s piling up. Lunar Surge is well within range and adds hood, Lasix today. Jet Away moving forward slowly as well..

Most Likely: #4 Lunar Surge 3-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Flores Island 3-5 (A) WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Jet Away 5-1 (C) 3rd

5th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

As Andy Serling said on ATR Wednesday, let’s see if Bake Shop stays in before making determinations..

Most Likely: #3 Zivo 3-1 (A) WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #10 Bake Shop 6-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #6 Ultimate Empire 7-2 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Itsagoodtendollars 4-1 (C) 6th

6th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Edie 10-1 (A) WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #6 Malibu Yankee 7-2 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Jean’s Surprise 20-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #4 Rock On Baby (C) 4th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ascended Fever 2-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #8 Claiming Victory 15-1 (C) WON ($22.20)
Next Best: #2 Implied 4-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Concealed 5-1 (C) 5th

8th: Bowl Game, 3+, 10f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #4 London Lane 10-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #10 Imagining 5-2 (A) WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Exclusive Strike 4-1 (A) 3rd
Super Add: #8 Atigun 6-1 (C) 7th

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #3 Metro 2-1 (A) WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #6 Moravitz 3-1 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 My Italian Ices 8-1 (B) 7th
Best Value: #2 Fiddlers Tango 20-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #4 Media Kid (C) 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-4
5: 3-10
6: 6-9
7: 1
8: 4-7-10
9: 3-6-8

2x2x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (2/3,8,9/9/8/6,10,13,14/1,3,11,12) Paid $54.00 (5OF6)

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 6-9
7: 1-8
8: 4-7-8-10
9: 2-3-4-6-7-8-9

1x4x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/8/6,10,13,14/1,3,11,12) Paid $368.25

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Good, well-matched group and tough start to P5. Class droppers I’m Wide Awake (5-1) and Craving Carats (15-1) are attractively priced. Not sure if Contessa runs Kiss of Thunder who won Thursday. Note too that the race marks the NY debut of Arlington meet title winner Manny Esquivel. The Chicago native is being booked by Billy Castle, so expect a ton of Jacobson mounts/winners..

Best Value: #1 I’m Wide Awake 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Ale 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Prudent Investor 7-2 5th
Super Add: #4 Craving Carats 15-1 WON ($18.40)

2nd: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Frazil ran Friday so we’ll have to see what Rice does with the hard knocking 7yo. Looks a fast pace here with Writingonthewall and He Can Run both stretching out..

Most Likely: #8 Dawly 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Cinnamon Beach 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 He Can Run 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Scotus 6-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Taking a shot that Happy My Way — who ran well fresh at GP in March — wires this off the 7 week break..

Best Value: #2 Happy My Way 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Tripski 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Sayaad 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #4 Nine O Wonderful 6-1 2nd

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

SCR Hundred Acre Wood..

Best Value: #4 Score Boyera 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Thisizsparta 2-1 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #1 House On Toilsome 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #5 Quiet Sunshine 6-1 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

SCR Justin Nguyen who has a quarter crack..

Most Likely: #1 Breakeven Analysis 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Street Gent 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Mr Speaker 2-1 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #10 Patent 6-1 2nd

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-4-6
2: 4-7-8
3: 2
4: 4-6
5: 1-5-7-10

4x3x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4-7-8
3: 1-2-4-6
4: 4-6
5: 1-5-7-10

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Not in either P4 so a great spot to play around with possible bombs..

Most Likely: #8 Fiftyfour Forever 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Run a Dubb Dubb 20-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Soul Opposition 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Gabrilicious 20-1 6th

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Really tough start to the late quad..

Most Likely: #10 Cashleigh 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Yes It’s Showtime 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Professor Plum 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Cash Your Ticket 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Trainingforsuccess 10-1 3rd

8th: 21st Pebbles, 3yo-F, 1m-T

Outrageous assembly for stake which should have been graded for this year and obviously will be next year. Speed aplenty lining up and it will be interesting to see who can avoid dueling early between Mariel and Kathy, Tapicat and Discreet Marq. No one, including 20-1’s from Hennig and KMc, would surprise..

Most Likely: #3 Dauphine Russe 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Tapicat 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Frege 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Teen Pauline 12-1 3rd

9th: I’m a Banker, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Percussion obviously a wire threat..

Most Likely: #4 Percussion 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1e Jacobson entry 5-2 2nd/3rd
Exotics Use: #2 SCR

10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f-T

Murky end to the sequences..

Most Likely: #11 Cool It 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 East Bay Lodge 15-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Giant Jo 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Sounds of Saratoga 10-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-6-8-9-10
8: 3-5-6
9: 1-4
10: 1-5-7-11

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Hot and Pleasing 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Sidepocket Run 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Kathleen Rose 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Peggy Sue’s Loose 8-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Final Step 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #3 Big Medicine Man 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Enterprising 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Ke in Motion 6-1 9th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Mr. Ornery 4-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Copper Bay 4-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Warren’s Big Cat 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #13 SCR

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Fighting On 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 He’s a Sure Call 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Hodge 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Cunning Ride 4-1 3rd

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Big Bane Theory 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #8 Huntsville 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Hawk’s Eyes 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Lucky Primo 7-2 5th

10th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Love Love Me Do 12-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Winninginfashion 4-1 14th
Exotics Use: #12 Glad’s Gals 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #14 Speedy Vixen 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Roust ‘Em Bertie 9-2 WON ($12.20)

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 2-6-11
6: 4
7: 6-7-12-13
8: 2-6
9: 1
10: 4-6

3x1x4x2x1x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-12-13
8: 2-4-6-8
9: 1
10: 3-4-6-9-12-14

4x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$50k C/O starts here..

Tiz for Tat becoming frustrating and both Moonluck and Mr. O’Leary are just as eligible. Won’t be surprised if $450k DistHumor bay Bakken is ready to go either as Chad Brown debuts him for a demanding client..

Most Likely: #6 Moonluck 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Tiz for Tat 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mr. O’Leary 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Bakken 5-1 WON ($5.90)

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Atlantic’s Smile 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #7 Lady Nitro 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Scribbling Sarah 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Julesco 10-1 9th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

If it isn’t Artie Schiller offspring Hide My Heart here, we may be in trouble..

Most Likely: #4 Hide My Heart 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pieces of Speight 5-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Foxbeau 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Touch the Star 8-1 4th

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Hard enough to have to objectively cap races in which Dee Tee horses run, let alone this very competitive scramble where perhaps 10 of the 12 can win. Consistent types Brown Indian and Liquidity Trap start discussion and then you can turn to Serpe dropper Fourseventeen. As a crazy horse, interested in Donato’s 30-1 Knack who picks up Alvarado after pair of speed sharpening drills. Our own My Pal of Pals continues to very slowly and steadily improve..

Most Likely: #4 Brown Indian 3-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Fourseventeen 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Knack 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Louie Mondello 15-1 7th

9th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #8 Milkyyourway 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Bit Bustin 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Familyofroses 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #7 My Unbridled Storm 6-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 East of Danzig 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Namron 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Quantity 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Wayward Sailor 6-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-5-6
6: 9
7: 4-5
8: 3-4
9: 1-8
10: 3-5-9

3x2x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-5
8: 1-2-3-4-6-10
9: 1-8
10: 3-5-9-10

2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 54th Knickerbocker (G3), 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific edition of this old fall standard sees Boisterous looking for unprecedented 3rd straight. As a sidebar, Phipps’ Shady Character was the first horse to win back-to-back Knickerbockers in 1974-75 with Cordero. Boisterous marooned outside for this tricky voyage on the Inner Turf but gets hot-riding Castellano with Velazquez at KEE. Za Approval may like the pace scenario going 9f. Tetradrachm appears set for best and should have first run on pace-setting Plainview. Mr. Commons will save ground under savvy Solis who may be ideal pilot for disappointing Artie Schiller colt that hasn’t won since February ’12..

Most Likely: #7 Za Approval 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #10 Tetradrachm 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Boisterous 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Mr. Commons 6-1 7th

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ithastobegeorge 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Truth Is 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Whatabouthonor 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Confrontation 3-1 WON ($7.20)

9th: 36th Athenia (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Quirky group for this and as discussed Friday on ATR, My Perfect Ten is not the craziest 20-1 shot you’ll latch on to. Pianist and Assateague are the speeds up front and if either takes back at all, the other will win..

Best Value: #2 My Perfect Ten 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Samitar 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Pianist 5-2 WON ($7.90)
Super Add: #7 Assateague 5-1 5th

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT

Most Likely: #4 Deterrent 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Upward 3-1 WON ($13.20)
Best Value: #5 Out of Your Mind 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Force Multiplier 10-1 10th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7-10-11
8: 1-7-8-9
9: 2-3-5-7
10: 4-7

4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,7,8,12/8/5/7) Paid $101.87

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 12f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$58,222 P5 C/O starts here..

KEE has run 12f-T events 8 times the last calendar year and despite some slow paces, few horses at the front have succeeded..

Most Likely: #11 Cape Savannah 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Wings of Fortune 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Knights Nation 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Formidable Heart 9-2 WON ($18.00)

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Toni’s Hollyday 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Aurella’s Belle 6-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Place Card 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 T. R. Indy 10-1 8th

8th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Favored Milam cuts back out of Pocahontas for Kenneally and should prove tough..

Most Likely: #5 Milam 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Maco Light 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Angie’s Prim Lady 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cynical Storm 3-1 WON ($7.80)

9th: 30th QE II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Typically outstanding cast of soph gals assemble for this including Say, Coolmore Galileo run-back out of last week’s squishy First Lady..

Most Likely: #4 Alterite 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Say 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 I’m Already Sexy 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Caroline Thomas 12-1 3rd

10th: MCLM/$30k, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Cue E Dee 10-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Artful Lady 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Vice Dancer 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Broken Blues 15-1 6th

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 6-11
7: 3-4-9
8: 4-5-6-8
9: 2-4
10: 4-5-6-12

2x3x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-9
8: 4-5-6-8
9: 2-4
10: 4-5-6-12

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

No shortage of winners Wednesday but a couple of modest budget boosts on the BEL and KEE P4’s had potential to close out $500 and $900 hits respectively and I wasn’t to pleased with myself. $20+ Peytonville in the Keeneland nightcap made the day palatable, but obviously left a nice chunk of change on the table. Hope everyone did well. Monster C/O at Santa Anita should hit $2.5MM and Belmont has a $27k pot which is threatened by anticipated precipitation..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tricky, well-matched set to open P6..

Most Likely: #4 Lion Keen 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Brother Brendan 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Defiant 2-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Captain Keon 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Copper Beeches 8-1 8th

5th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Shortcoming 5-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Fastinov 20-1 3rd-DQ’D from WIN
Next Best: #6 Plausibly 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Fiddlers Chico 7-2 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Polecat 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Lulu Rocks 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Freddie G 3-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Social Affair ran into Shadow Banking (2nd, Pilgrim) in solidly-bet debut..

Most Likely: #1 Social Affair 9-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Double Whammy 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Theros 5-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Gara Gattino 6-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Harley 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Mr Rodriguez 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Streets of Fire 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Ego Friendly 3-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Hardrocker 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Flowing Mane 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Mr Algebra 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Seeking Harmony 10-1 4th

RAIN LIGHT AT THIS HOUR (11:00a)..

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-8
5: 3-5-6
6: 5
7: 1
8: 3-5-7-9
9: 4-7

3x3x1x1x4x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5
7: 1-3-4-7
8: 3-5-7-9
9: 1-2-4-5-7-9

1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Despite the acclamation in Danderek’s direction, I’m finding this a challenging start to the sequence. Feels like there is plenty of pace on and I believe you need to cover those that will be rallying..

Most Likely: #5 Husband’s Folly 5-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #7 Danderek 6-5 (A) WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #3 Midnight Crooner 6-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Mr. Candy Bar 5-1 (C) 3rd

4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Upper level MCLM’s and looks like at least 6 are capable for circle. 3-4-5 participated in same DMR event with Shopping Savannah (6-1) having the most upside of the three. Firsters from Baffert (1) and Miller (7) demand respect with Miller’s For Emma earning better worktab reviews..

Best Value: #5 Shopping Savannah 6-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #4 Goodhumorgirl 5-2 (A) 4th
Exotics Use: #7 For Emma 6-1 (B) WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #1 Lady of the Nile 4-1 (B) 6th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Competitive but give edge to Miss Well Molded (Stevens gets first run on pacesetters) and Lilly’s Perfect (Mulhall claim-back with which Bejarano sticks). Always a Chance saves ground and could knock on door late..

Most Likely: #6 Miss Well Molded 9-2 (A) WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #8 Lilly’s Perfect 7-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #1 Always a Chance 6-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Love Tale 8-1 (C) 8th

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a race with this many starters (9) all coming in with layoff lines. Had hoped single Crucero who gets back to dirt and looks poised for forward move, but the 2 Bafferts (4-8) appear serious based on a.m. reports. Jon White made interesting points for some oddballs including Ray Bell’s Bornatthetrack (fast works for old school conditioner)..

Most Likely: #2 Crucero 5-2 (A) 6th
Best Value: #4 Secretsatmidnight 6-1 (B) 8th
Next Best: #8 Cat Burglar 3-1 (B) WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Scarly Charly 4-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #5 Bornatthetrack 8-1 (C) 9th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (DD)

Evenly matched group that is largely devoid of speed. Lumberyard Jack is going to have the lead and a case can be made he is worth singling..

Most Likely: #8 Lumberyard Jack 5-2 (A) 6th
Next Best: #2 Shadow Runner 7-2 (B) 5th
Best Value: #7 Arctic North 8-1 (B) WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Holladay Road 4-1 (C) 2nd

8th: MCLM/$$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Make More Money 5-2 (A) WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Truly Beautiful 3-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #11 Full of Spice 8-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Reddaxle 6-1 (C) 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 5-7
4: 4-5
5: 6-8
6: 2-3-4-8
7: 8
8: 1-4-11

2x2x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-6-8
6: 2-3-4-5-8
7: 2-8
8: 1-4-11

3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45