Thought Belmont might head into a third carryover day Friday but overdue Lord Trondor broke maiden in nightcap to close big return of $186,500 for 2 winners. At Santa Anita, the tricky sequence produced 2 favorites and some mid-range prices for an excellent payoff of nearly $86k. Beautiful day in New York for Empire-bred Showcase…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a B Shanny 8-5
Next Best: #10 Dr Disco 5-1
Best Value: #8 Lucci the Lion 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Say Mr. Sandman 8-1

2nd: Kingston-NY, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Kharafa 5-2
Next Best: #1 Lubash 2-1
Best Value: #7 Compliance Officer 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Street Game 12-1

3rd: Bouwerie-NY, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Henry’s Gal 3-1
Next Best: #2 Flipcup 5-2
Best Value: #3 Isabelle 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Ms. Sylvia A. 6-1

4th: Mt. Vernon-NY, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Effie Trinket 2-5
Best Value: #2 Mah Jong Maddnes 10-1
Next Best: #7 Roses for Romney 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 Frosty Bay 15-1

5th: Mike Lee-NY, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Captain Serious 5-1
Best Value: #7 Swell 10-1
Next Best: #9 Loki’s Vengeance 6-1
Exotics Use: #3 Eye Luv Lulu 20-1

<$75 P5 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 7,10 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 10 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 7,10 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 7,8,9 with 2,5 with 5 with 7,10 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 5 with 7,10 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 3,9 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P5: 10 with 7,8,9 with 2,5 with 5 with 7,10 – $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P5: 10 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 5 with 7,10 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 10 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 3,9 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 7,8,9 with 3,6 with 5 with 7,10 – $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 7,8,9 with 2,5 with 5 with 3,9 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 5 with 3,9 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P5: 2,8 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 7,10 – $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 1,8 with 5 with 7,10 – $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,4 with 2,5 with 5 with 1,5 – $4.00

Total: $68.00

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 So Lonesome 3-1
Best Value: #8 Giant Finish 12-1
Next Best: #2 Sneaky Kitten 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Powerful Instinct 4-1

7th: Critical Eye-NY, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 La Verdad 1-1
Next Best: #4 Macha 6-1
Best Value: #3 Miss Da Point 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Hot Stones 10-1

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sanctify 8-1
Best Value: #6 Waterway 12-1
Next Best: #9 Hooked Forever 5-1
Exotics Use: #12 Soul House 7-2
Super Add: #7 Lord of Love 10-1

9th: Commentator-NY, 3+, 1m (DD)

Wildly competitive edition of this..

Most Likely: #1 Prohibition 6-1
Next Best: #5 Zivo 2-1
Best Value: #3 Big Business 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Readtheprospectus 8-1
Super Add: #11 Bernardo 20-1

10th: MSW-NY, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Crazy finale. As discussed with Nick Tammaro, thought City Zip daughter Barrier to Entry (30-1) from Fox Ridge and Pat Kelly was as viable as any here making first career turf start..

Best Value: #2 Barrier to Entry 30-1
Next Best: #6 Winter Wish 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Colloquial 15-1
Super Add: #9 Keen Katana 15-1

<$60 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 1,5 with 2,6 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 9,12 with 1,5 with 2,6 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 3,7,11 with 2,6 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 1,5 with 1,9,11 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

5 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 9,12 with 3,7,11 with 2,6 – $6.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 9,12 with 1,5 with 1,9,11 – $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 3,7,11 with 1,9,11 – $9.00

A’s with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 7 with 1,5 with 2,6 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 8,9,10,12 with 2,6 – $8.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 6,8 with 1,5 with 4,5,7,8 – $8.00

Total: $59.00

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Flat Leaver 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Saltine Warrior 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Bajan Summer 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Bob and Jim 12-1 5th

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Two Blue Hens 9-5 4th
Next Best: #2 Bounty Pink 8-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Iratinelexburance 5-1 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Persnickity 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Sunrise Kitty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Talmadge Hill 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Chelsea Road 9-5 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Don Tito 5-2 8th
Next Best: #5 Hackleton 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Head Heart Hoof 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Coolusive 4-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nuffsaif Nuffsaid 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 How 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Laguna Girl 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Skier 7-2 6th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #11 Absolute Beauty 2-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Jen’s Miracle 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Over My Head 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Copper Bluff 6-1 WON ($7.80)

<$150 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $4.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

7 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $2.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $4.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 5,8 with 5 with 11 – $16.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 6 with 11 – $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 4,8 with 6 with 5 with 4,5 – $16.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 6 with 11 – $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 5,8 with 5 with 4,5 – $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 6 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with One C

17 $2.00 pick P6: 10,12 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 2,3 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $8.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 5 with 6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 5 with 11 – $4.00
21 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 3,4 with 11 – $8.00
22 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5 with 10 – $4.00

Total: $152.00

<$60 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 11 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 7,8 with 5 with 11 – $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 4,6 with 11 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 7,8 with 5 with 4,5,10 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 4,6 with 4,5,10 – $12.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 3 with 11 – $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,6 with 5 with 8 – $2.00

Total: $56.00

DELAWARE PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: Buddy Delp Memorial, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ground Control 4-1
Next Best: #1 Divine View 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Joint Custody 2-1

7th: OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Night Maneuver 3-1
Next Best: #2 Picko’s Pride 5-1
Best Value: #4 Escrow Kid 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Guam Typhoon 4-1

<$30 DD Play:

$10: 3-1 ($10)
$3: 3-2/4/7 ($9)
$5: 1-6 ($5)
$1: 1-2/4/7 ($3)
$2: 2-6 ($2)

Total: $29

Good luck!
Steve

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Decamp has been zippy on poly and should take to lawn just fine. Sits behind inside pacesetters Saffron and Aqtaar. City Connect (12-1) regularly arrives late on scenes to boost tris and supers for KY HBPA head Rick Hiles & Ellis Park poobha Ron Geary..

Best Value: #7 Decamp 9-2
Next Best: #1 Saffron Hall 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Aqtaar 4-1
Super Add: #3 City Connect 12-1

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Six pack and get the feeling you need to cover them all to some degree to be quad alive into late double. All but Pretty Fancy are separated by 2-3 lengths and even she has to be considered making her first start on dirt. Hurricane Leila another trying main track first time. Elaine Kowaleski appears best poised for improvement, but no one here will surprise..

Most Likely: #4 Elaine Kowaleski 3-1
Best Value: #6 Ireland 8-1
Next Best: #2 Handmade 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Fancy 6-1

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Miszippityslewda looks like she’s better on dirt. Can stalk and go or take control if those inside choose to take back..

Best Value: #3 Miszippityslewda 9-2
Next Best: #5 Elusive Fate 4-1
Exotics Use: #1 Tres Belle 5-2
Super Add: #4 Cookie 6-1

10th: 119th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (Super Hi-5)

While a big part of the discussion for this has involved 8yo Forte Dei Marmi (4-1), Attfield’s 12-1 Perfect Timber is 2nd/layoff and has 12f Northern Dancer placement as an outlier that will win here. Price is right..

Best Value: #4 Perfect Timber 12-1
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 5-2
Exotics Use: #5 Tattenham 5-1
Super Add: #3 Moro Tap 6-1

<$60 P4 Play:

7: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3 (C)
8: 4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 1-3 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 1 (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-6-7-8 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 – $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $2.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $12.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 – $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 1 with 2,4 – $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,5 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 3,5 – $1.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 1,3 with 3,5 with 2,4 – $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 4,6 with 2,4 – $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 1,6,7,8 – $4.00

Total: $57.00

Good luck!
Steve