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OAKLAWN: Nice, but sloppy, Late P4..

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3)

Note track starts sloppy today with wet forecast throughout afternoon..

Best Value: #3 Over Again 10-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Leap Year Lady 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Shezaghostslayer 5-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #4 Rulersshinyfuture 20-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #5 St. Louis City 5-1 5th
Next Best:#9 Heykittykittykitty 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Electric Temptress 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #4 Afternoon Tango 6-1 7th

8th: OC/N2Y, 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Agent Di Nozzo 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 For Greater Glory 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #5 Joy Boy 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Evan’s Calling 4-1 6th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

SCR’s cut this field by 33%..

Most Likely: #5 World Elite 5th
Next Best: #6 Fashionable Frolic 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Bristol’s Tale 7th
Super Add: #11 Lady Margarita 6th

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), 9 (B), 4-6-7-10 (C)
7: 5 (A), 8-9 (B), 2-4-7 (C)
8: 1-11 (A), 2-5-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
Full (A/B/C): $57.50 (With $1 All ‘A’ ticket)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 1,11 with 5 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 5 with 1,11 with 5 – $1.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 8,9 with 1,11 with 5 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 2,5,8 with 5 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 1,11 with 2,6 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 8,9 with 1,11 with 5 – $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 5 with 2,5,8 with 5 – $1.50
8 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 5 with 1,11 with 2,6 – $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 8,9 with 2,5,8 with 5 – $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 8,9 with 1,11 with 2,6 – $8.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 2,5,8 with 2,6 – $6.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,7,10 with 5 with 1,11 with 5 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 2,4,7 with 1,11 with 5 – $6.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 4,7 with 5 – $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 5 with 1,11 with 11,12 – $4.00

Total: $57.50

Derby Preps, Big Cap, C/O’s and more..

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 30th Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Daredevil 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Bluegrass Singer 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Ready for Rye 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #3 X Y Jet 4-1 6th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wisecracker 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Unbridled Juan 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Semblance of Order 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Seeking Alpha 5-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Another very good MDN group going short and have to think firsters Tilted Halo (Plesa & Paco) and Chipit (Pletcher & Castellano) duel early. Tilted Halo is half to MGSW Old Forester among other quickish sibs. Golden Boot (Md’O) is out of G3W High Button Shoes and should improve 2nd time out and moving to dirt. His half brother Buck Benny (Dynaformer) happens to run in the 5th. Salsa Dog debuts for Miah Englehart and is a FULL brother to Conquest Two Step who of course headlines the San Carlos later at SA. Working well for bow and GSW sibling did win at first asking at today’s trip. All this said, Centauro Star has been gelded since strong but problematic unveiling and has worked sharply at ‘GPW’ for return. Gets Saez. Deep, fun betting affair..

Most Likely: #11 Centauro Star 8-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Golden Boot 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Chipit 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Salsa Dog 12-1 7th

9th: 33rd Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/115′ (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Night Prowler 2-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Divisidero 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Croninthebarbarian 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Eh Cumpari 9-2 WON ($15.40)

10th: 75th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Private Zone 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Valid 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Honor Code 3-1 WON ($7.00)

11th: OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)

Brutally tough group to decipher with perhaps 8 of the 14 looking win-eligible. Pick and pray..

Best Value: #14 Joh’s Gone Wild 20-1 14th
Next Best: #3 Catalactic 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 French Quarter 20-1 WON ($40.20)
Super Add: #12 Flash Paws 12-1 6th

12th: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-T/48′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Force the Pass 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Weekend Express 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Dujac 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Boca Scuttlebutt 15-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Able Archer 20-1 10th

P5 Grid:

8: 5-11 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-8 (C)
9: 5 (A), 6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 2 (C)
11: 3-14 (A), 7-12 (B), 4-5-6-9-11-13 (C)
12: 6 (A), 2-12 (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4x3 = 216 x .50 = $108
Full (A/B/C): $86

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

7 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $8.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 2,12 – $4.00

A’s with One C

17 $0.50 pick P5: 1,8 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 3,8 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 2 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 4,5,6,9,11,13 with 6 – $6.00
21 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 1,10 – $4.00

Total: $88.00

P4 Grid:

9: 5 (A), 6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 5-6 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
11: 3-14 (A), 7-12 (B), 1-2-4-5-6-9-10-11-12-13 (C)
12: 6 (A), 2-12 (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72 (With All A and A with 1 B plays at $1; $58 if all at .50)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $1.00 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $8.00
3 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
4 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
5 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 2,12 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 – $10.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 1,10 – $4.00

Total: $72.00

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 24th Challenger, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Midnight Cello 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 General a Rod 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #1 Old Time Hockey 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mister Mardi Gras 9-2 7th

9th: 32nd Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Consumer Credit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Lismore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Quality Rocks 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Tiger Ride 6-1 4th

10th: 17th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Sparkling Review 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Stephanie’s Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Maria Maria 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Filimbi 5-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Ball Dancing 7-2 2nd

.50 TRI: 12 with 1-2-5-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-9 (1x5x4 = 20 x .50 = $10)

11th: 35th Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ocean Knight 2-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Great Stuff 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Carpe Diem 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Danzig Moon 12-1 4th

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: 63rd Gotham S. (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Classy Class 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Tencendur 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 El Kabeir 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Lieutenant Colonel 5-1 8th

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Emyvale Court 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Whisk 8-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #9 Revenue Virginius 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Screaming Skylar 5-1 3rd

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Never Ends 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Black Betsy 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #9 Miss Centerfold 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Promises 4-1 5th

5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Chasintheaces 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 May B 6-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Pulling G’s WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Cautious Giant 6-1 4th

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$52,665 P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #6 Margot Machance 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Hug and a Kiss 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Circling 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Dakota Kid 4-1 9th

7th: 78th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Will take chance that both Ocho Ocho Ocho and Bolo are less than at their best for this serious test. Dortmund, Lord Nelson & Prospect Park are the now players and I’ll tab under-appreciated Sir Samson (Blinkers off) as a value catalyst..

Most Likely: #3 Dortmund 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Prospect Park 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Sir Samson 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Lord Nelson 4-1 4th

8th: 12th China Doll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Curlin’s Fox 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Mio Me 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 She’s a Big Winner 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Spirit of Xian Gate SCR

9th: 77th San Carlos (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Mammoth SCR’s of both Chitu & Midnight Hawk changing race shape/flow..

Most Likely: #4 Conquest Two Step 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Wild Dude 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Kobe’s Back 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Blues Blaster 20-1 6th

10th: 15th Frank Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Summer Front 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Za Approval 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Winning Prize 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Hay Dude 8-1 8th

11th: 78th Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

$28,316 Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #5 Shared Belief 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Dynamic Sky 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Bronzo 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Moreno 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #8 You Know I Know 30-1 7th

P6 Grid:

6: 1-6 (A), 4-5 (B), 7-11 (C)
7: 3 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-7/SCR-12 (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 5 (B), 2-3-9 (C)
10: 8 (A), 3-11 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
11: 5 (A), – (B), 4-6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
Full (A/B/C): $232

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00

A’s with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 3,11 with 5 – $8.00

A’s with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 7,11 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 1,2,7,9 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $32.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $24.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 2,3,9 with 8 with 5 – $12.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6 with 5 – $24.00
17 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,6,8,11 – $32.00

Total: $232.00

P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), 2-7/SCR-12 (B), 4-6/SCR-8 (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 5-9 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
10: 8 (A), 3-11 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
11: 5 (A), 4-11 (B), 6-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $70

All A Entries

1 $3.00 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $6.00

A’s with One B

2 $1.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $9.00
3 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
4 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $6.00
5 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,11 – $6.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,11 – $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 3,11 with 5 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 8 with 4,11 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 4,11 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,8 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 2,3,6 with 8 with 5 – $1.50
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6 with 5 – $3.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 6,8,12 – $3.00

Total: $63.50

Deep Fountain, Risen Star cards for Saturday

Saturday, February 21st, 2015

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 41st Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Very curious assembly with legitimate concerns about the major players with Weekend Hideaway and Speechify eligible for regression off mammoth efforts last time, Happy My Way seemingly past midnight and seldom seen/undefeated Mean Season an ouchy question mark. Unless Happy My Way can fully extend Mean Season, the latter will wire this if right. Any of the prices from the second half of the field appear capable of impacting the pay slots and I’d expect C. Zee delivers a career best second off the layoff for the terrific Stanley Gold..

Best Value: #8 Weekend Hideaway 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Mean Season 5-2 DNF-Eased
Exotics Use: #2 C. Zee 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #7 Puntrooskie 20-1 4th

7th: 10th Ladies Turf Sprint, F&M-4+, 5f-T/84′ (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Good Deed 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Jewel of a Cat 4-1 WON ($25.20)
Best Value: #10 True Romance 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Fascinate 6-1 11th
Super Add: #2 Catching Fireflies 5-1 6th

8th: 31st Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

We may still be waiting for a truly good 3yo filly to emerge, but meanwhile, this is a delightful assembly of well matched missies. Pick a few that have caught your eye. Plenty of pace on, so the stalker-closers won’t be compromised..

Most Likely: #1 Lassofthemohicans 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Birdatthewire 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Silverpocketsfull 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Cavorting 6-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Puca 10-1 4th

9th: 24th Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-T/12′ (P4, P3, DD)

Despite murky pace prospect, more I thought about Mac Diarmida scenario, more I concluded that Main Sequence isn’t losing. Between careful handling and deliberate training by Motion to land here to healthy Rajiv Maragh getting back aboard, dual champion should arrive on scene in time. Given difficulty of rest of P5 sequence, single and spread in the spots that demand it..

Most Likely: #1 Main Sequence 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Twilight Eclipse 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Divine Oath 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Artic North 12-1 6th

10th: 53rd Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T/84′ (P3, DD)

Have been a big Excaper fan since getting in front of him in BC Juvy Turf and here he is entering his 5th season of competition having amassed nearly $750k in earnings. Would love to believe he can wire off the bench but there are several pace pressers involved here. Jack Milton another I favored from the start and while he’s disappointed more than rewarded, was ready off the bench as a 4yo and should be well placed by winter’s crazily dominant pilot. Not ready to give up on Mutin after fiasco in the FLL last..

Most Likely: #6 Jack Milton 5-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Mutin 12-1 11th
Next Best: #2 Grand Tito 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Excaper 4-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Sky Blazer 8-1 7th

11th: 73rd Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

While there are fresh-faced candidates that have potential to overhaul the obvious top pair, Gorgeous Bird and Itsaknockout are spotting serious stakes experience to Upstart and Frosted..

Most Likely: #7 Upstart 8-5 2nd-DQ’d from WIN
Next Best: #6 Frosted 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Gorgeous Bird 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Itsaknockout 4-1 WON-via DQ ($12.80)

12th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T/84′ (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Dreaming of Gold 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Animal Kracker 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tweet Kitten 6-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Cat Humor 8-1 12th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Caprock Kid 20-1 6th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-4 (A), 2-6-8-12 (B), – (C)
9: 1 (A), – (B), 3-6-7 (C)
10: 6 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-3-9-11-13 (C)
11: 7 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
12: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $66

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 5,7 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 2,6,8,12 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 5,7 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 2,10 with 7 with 5,7 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5,7 – $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 3,6 – $2.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P5: 2,6,8,12 with 1 with 2,10 with 7 with 5,7 – $8.00
7 $0.50 pick P5: 2,6,8,12 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 5,7 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 2,6,8,12 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 3,6 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 2,10 with 6 with 5,7 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 2,10 with 7 with 3,6 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 6 with 3,6 – $2.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 3,6,7 with 6 with 7 with 5,7 – $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 1,3,9,11,13 with 7 with 5,7 – $10.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 1,2,4,5 with 5,7 – $8.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 1,4 with 1 with 6 with 7 with 1,8 – $2.00

Total: $66.00

P4 Grid:

9: 1 (A), 6 (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 2-6-10 (A), 3-9-11 (B), 1-8-12-13 (C)
11: 7 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-2-5 (C)
12: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $67

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 5,7 – $3.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 5,7 – $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 3,9,11 with 7 with 5,7 – $3.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 4,6 with 5,7 – $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 3,6 – $3.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 3,9,11 with 7 with 5,7 – $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 2,6,10 with 4,6 with 5,7 – $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 3,6 – $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 3,9,11 with 4,6 with 5,7 – $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 3,9,11 with 7 with 3,6 – $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 4,6 with 3,6 – $6.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,7 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 5,7 – $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 1,8,12,13 with 7 with 5,7 – $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 1,2,5 with 5,7 – $9.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1 with 2,6,10 with 7 with 1,8 – $3.00

Total: $67.00

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 30th Mineshaft H. (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Hard Aces & Quadrivium are SCR’s from this so expect odds to be redistributed accordingly. Even without Quadrivium, there figures to be a fairly spirited pace on given Nates Mineshaft, Red Rifle and Street Babe all interested in the front end. Someone will sit an ideal stalking trip here with 6-1 Irish You Well, 10-1 Class Leader and 20-1 Cougar Ridge eligible at nice numbers. Tricky start to all-stakes P4..

Most Likely: #5 Irish You Well 6-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Class Leader 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Red Rifle 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Cougar Ridge 20-1 4th

9th: 29th Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Didn’t expect to land on Catalano again here, but Highball always had quality about him and displayed encouraging development in first start as 4yo. Has shown ability to adjust to varied pace scenarios and will be a square price..

Best Value: #3 Highball 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Quadrivium 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Pyrite Mountain 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Dreams Cut Short 15-1 7th

10th: 35th Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Like the Davona Dale at 4p ET, a compelling betting affair that hopefully produces some Oaks prospects that get you excited. As discussed with Marcus Hersh on Friday ATR, pace figures to get zippy hear as outside speeds hurtling for turn generally prompt inside runners that seek forward positions.

Most Likely: #1 Shook Up 7-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Forever Unbridled 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Angela Renee 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Lovely Maria 5-1 2nd

11th: 43rd Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

SCR of J S Bach takes some of the speed out of this leaving St. Joe Bay and Hero of Humor as the tablesetters with Tiznow R J, Bluff and War Story watching the action unfold. Tiznow R J (5-1) is the ‘Most Likely’ due to his added experience at the level, but I’ll be basing my bets around upside-laden Bluff (12-1). Time and again we are seeing flighty Tapit offspring spring forward with maturity and once the light goes on, the lamp stays lit. Has advanced with every start and with another projective step, can make up margins he spots the major contenders..

Most Likely: #2 Tiznow R J 5-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Bluff 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 International Star 9-2 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Imperia 7-2 5th

P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), 6-10 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 3-6 (A), 5 (B), 1-10-11 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 4-7-10 (C)
11: 2-3 (A), 5-10 (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $78

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $8.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 5,6 with 2,3 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 5,10 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 5 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 3,6 with 5,6 with 2,3 – $8.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 5,10 – $8.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5 with 5,6 with 2,3 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5 with 1,8 with 5,10 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 5,6 with 5,10 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,8 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $12.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,10,11 with 1,8 with 2,3 – $6.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 4,7,10 with 2,3 – $6.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,6 with 1,8 with 6,8 – $4.00

Total: $78.00

OAKLAWN PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #10 Ribbon of Darkness 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #6 Elaine Kowaleski 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Seans Silverdancer 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Warfare 7-2 3rd

7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #10 Mr. Tickle 7-2: Better with each start; Ran into Kantune last time.. WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #2 Dreamsdocometrue 8-1: Good debut; Half brother Dreams Cut Short in FG ‘Cap.. 5th
Next Best: #7 King of New York 9-2: 2nd to Leave the Light On at 2; Lasix added today.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Crafty Navigator 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Lawless West SCR

8th: 27th Spring Fever, F&M-4+, 5.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lasting Bubbles 5-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Chortle 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Boss Barney’s Babe 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Heykittykittykitty 4-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #5 Escalate 4-1 7th
Next Best: #4 California Coast 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #7 Perfectly 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Conquest Cobra 3-1 4th

P4 Grid:

6: 6-10 (A), 1-3 (B), – (C)
7: 10 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 2-3-4 (A), 5-6-7 (B), 1-8 (C)
9: 5 (A), 4 (B), 3-7-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (10-10-7-4) Paid $200.05
Full (A/B/C): $68 (With $1 All “A” Play)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 2,3,4 with 5 – $6.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 10 with 2,3,4 with 5 – $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 2,7 with 2,3,4 with 5 – $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 5,6,7 with 5 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 2,3,4 with 4 – $3.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 2,7 with 2,3,4 with 5 – $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 10 with 5,6,7 with 5 – $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 10 with 2,3,4 with 4 – $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 2,7 with 5,6,7 with 5 – $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 2,7 with 2,3,4 with 4 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 5,6,7 with 4 – $3.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 3,6 with 2,3,4 with 5 – $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 1,8 with 5 – $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 6,10 with 10 with 2,3,4 with 3,7,8,9 – $12.00

Total: $65.00

LRL, OP, GG provide offbeat action

Saturday, February 14th, 2015

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

At the dashy 5.5f distance, there’s a modest danger that loose Spango wires here as lone speed..

Most Likely: #8 Regal Soldier 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Northern Label 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Compulsive 9-2 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Twelve Stone 5-2 7th

7th: John B. Campbell H., 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Wildly competitive group with at least 7 of the 11 win eligible. Pimental sides with Trombetta’s Live Oak runner, but Cosmic Gold (8-1) looks like he’s developing right along and with tactical speed, may get first run on Cerro and whomever is attending pace with him..

Best Value: #5 Cosmic Gold 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Page McKenney 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Sailor’s Revenge 9-2 4th
Super Add: #11 Souper Lucky 6-1 6th

8th: Barbara Fritchie (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (DD)

Sam’s Sister ships cross country, gives significant to weight to all and appears to need improvement to win as the likely well-bet favorite. No thanks..

Most Likely: #1 Princess Violet 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Lady Sabelia 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Stormy Novel 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Sam’s Sister 5-2 4th

9th: MD Racing Media, F&M-3+, 9f

Best Value: #5 Pearl Bay 8-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Flores Island 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Shayjolie 9-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Luna Time 6-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

6: 8 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-5-7 (C)
7: 3-5 (A), 10-11 (B), 4-8 (C)
8: 1-9 (A), 8-10 (B), 5 (C)
9: 5 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-6-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $59 (With $1 All A’s Play)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 5 – $2.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 5 – $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 10,11 with 1,9 with 5 – $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 8,10 with 5 – $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 2,3 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 10,11 with 1,9 with 5 – $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 3,5 with 8,10 with 5 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 2,3 – $8.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 10,11 with 8,10 with 5 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 10,11 with 1,9 with 2,3 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 8,10 with 2,3 – $4.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5,7 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 5 – $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 4,8 with 1,9 with 5 – $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 5 with 5 – $1.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,5 with 1,9 with 1,6,8,9 – $8.00

Total: $59.00

OAKLAWN

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N1Y, 4+, 6f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #2 Gentleman’s Bet 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Hogy 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Unbridled’s Note 5-2 2nd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3)

Ton of firsters with modest pedigree or trainer support to separate contenders..

Most Likely: #5 Mutation 3-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Chart Room 9-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Mission Driven 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Transformative 5-1 3rd

9th: 67th Essex H., 4+, 8.5f (DD)

You can’t have a more competitive assembly for an ungraded, $100 stake. Ride On Curlin will get a pace to close into, but Code West and Golden Lad get first run from stalking slots and surely one of the pace setters will hang tough. With the El Camino and John Campbell, one of the day’s most inviting wagering opps..

Most Likely: #8 Golden Lad 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #4 Code West 9-2 6th
Best Value: #3 I Got It All 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Ride On Curlin 2-1 2nd

10th: MSW, 3+, 1m

On paper, it looks as if Legal Eagle SCR’D! would have to fall down to get beat, but he obviously had issues if he didn’t debut until January of his 4yo year. Did work since debut which is a positive sign and expect he wins, but there are alternatives to the 3-2 ML fave..

Best Value: #6 Stormy Deacon 20-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sail Maker 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Hillbilly Style 10-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Big Changes 5-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

7: 2 (A), 4 (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 5-8 (A), 2-9-12 (B), 7-11 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 1-3-7 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 5 (B), 1-3-7-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
Full (A/B/C): $59.50 (With $1 All A’s Play)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 6 – $4.00

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 6 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 2,9,12 with 4,8 with 6 – $3.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 1,3,7 with 6 – $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 5,8 – $4.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 2,9,12 with 4,8 with 6 – $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 5,8 with 1,3,7 with 6 – $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 5,8 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 2,9,12 with 1,3,7 with 6 – $4.50
10 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 2,9,12 with 4,8 with 5,8 – $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 1,3,7 with 5,8 – $6.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 6 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 7,11 with 4,8 with 6 – $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 2,5,6 with 6 – $3.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 2 with 5,8 with 4,8 with 1,3,7,9,11 – $10.00

Total: $61.50

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: El Camino Real Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3)

May not be a major Kentucky Derby player in the El Camino Real Derby, but it’s a fun betting affair with a well-matched field and vulnerable favorites..

Most Likely: #5 Cross the Line 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Ernest Shackleton 12-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Mischief Clem 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Soul Driver 6-1 5th

NY-bred ALW drives Thursday AQU action

Thursday, February 12th, 2015

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Grand Strand 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Maximus Mike 3-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #3 Mr. Lit 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Chrisandlorisposse 8-1 7th

6th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Son of Dixie 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Winter Games 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #3 Ultimate Empire 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Call Wil 6-1 2nd

7th: NY-ALW/C, 4+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #2 Saratoga Snacks 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #5 Readbytheline 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Spa City Fever 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Readtheprospectus 5-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $23.40
$1 Trifecta (2-5-6) Paid $91.50
$1 Superfecta (2-5-6-3) Paid $331.00

8th: MSW, F&M-4+, 6f

Most Likely: #9 Mine for Life 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #4 Relax 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pop of Color 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Flapper Girl 15-1 8th

P4 Grid:

5: 4-7 (A), 3 (B), 1-6 (C)
6: 2-6 (A), 1-3 (B), 4 (C)
7: 2-5 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-4 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4-5 (B), 6-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 9 – $4.00 $0.50 Pick 4 (7-6-2-9) Paid $159.75

A’s with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 9 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,3 with 2,5 with 9 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 3,6 with 9 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with Two B’s

6 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,3 with 2,5 with 9 – $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 2,6 with 3,6 with 9 – $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 4,5 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,3 with 3,6 with 9 – $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,3 with 2,5 with 4,5 – $8.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 3,6 with 4,5 – $8.00

A’s with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,6 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 9 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 4 with 2,5 with 9 – $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 1,4 with 9 – $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 2,6 with 2,5 with 6,8,10 – $12.00

Total: $72.00