Derby Notebook/Earnings (4/17); Soldat sharp in last FL drill

[Mike]

Thank for the info,Justin, I could not remeber what Minethatbird's history was leading up to the race. Although we now have a recent example of a horse who did get in, due to,what appears over-inflated purses (I guess more connections should just target these races?), how long will it be before the next? Maybe Mine That Bird was both a beneficiary and a victim of the Graded earnings rule? Did he get a lot of 2nd and 3rd place $$$ in those Canadian races?

I don't want to get bogged down, I had my input, and there could be room for a lot of tinkering to my modest proposal.
Dialed In best be sure to be in the money next week, as he and others will surely be bumped down over the next 2-3 weeks

Me? I just need Astrology to be in those Derby gates, as I have future wagers on him and the factor(including a three entry exacta box with all other three year olds)

[slotdirt]

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher $1,260,000 Wood
2 Gourmet Dinner Steven Standridge $780,000 FL Derby
3 Pants On Fire Kelly Breen $623,000 KY Derby
4 J P's Gusto Joseph Petalino $541,500
5 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin $510,000 FL Derby
6 Comma to the Top Peter Miller $471,000 SA Derby
7 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien $441,884
8 Twice the Appeal Jeff Bonde $400,000 KY Derby
9 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo $370,000 KY Derby
10 Decisive Moment Juan Arias $301,000 KY Derby

11 Animal Kingdom H. Motion $285,000 Undecided
12 Astrology Steven Asmussen $281,893
13 The Factor Bob Baffert $270,000 AR Derby
14 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher $260,000 FL Derby
15 Jaycito Bob Baffert $250,000 Wood
16 To Honor and Serve William Mott $250,000 FL Derby
17 Santiva Eddie Kenneally $240,254 Blue Grass
18 Dialed In Nicholas Zito $240,000 FL Derby
19 Watch Me Go* Kathleen O'Connell $232,500 FL Derby
20 Premier Pegasus Myung Cho $228,000 SA Derby

21 Nehro Steven Asmussen $200,000
22 Archarcharch William Fires $180,000 AR Derby
23 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty $162,000 SA Derby
24 Brethren Todd Pletcher $155,000 AR Derby
25 Madman Diaries* Wesley Ward $150,000
26 Blue Laser Mark Casse $143,502
27 Willcox Inn Michael Stidham $139,000 Blue Grass
28 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen $124,334 SA Derby
29 Sweet Ducky Herman Brown $120,000
30 Maybesomaybenot* Michael Maker $111,196

31 Lou Brissie Neil Howard $99,043
32 Ruler On Ice* Kelly Breen $96,000
33 Air Support* Claude McGaughey III $95,000
34 Rockin Heat* Reade Baker $92,981
35 Flashpoint Richard Dutrow, Jr. $90,000 FL Derby/Swale
36 Joes Blazing Aaron* Allan Hunter, Jr. $90,000
37 Major Gain Wayne Catalano $86,370
38 Mountain Town* Richard Dutrow, Jr. $80,000
39 Caleb's Posse Donnie Von Hemel $71,504 AR Derby
40 Nacho Saint* Kelly Breen $70,500

41 Wilkinson Neil Howard $70,000
42 Crimson Knight* Gerald Bennett $70,000
43 Elite Alex Timothy Ritchey $65,000 AR Derby
44 Sway Away Jeff Bonde $61,500 AR Derby
45 Norman Asbjornson* Christopher Grove $50,000 Wood

Steve u are missing Master of Hounds he is TC nominated and has 441,884 in Graded Earnings

[Mike]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

I'll sell you that Astrology future wager

And thanks for the dropout info on MTB. Seriously, it does explain things some.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Sunday Break.

[Mike]

Of course I do have a $100 insurance wager on Astrology to finish in the bottom three

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Steve u are missing Master of Hounds he is TC nominated and has 441,884 in Graded Earnings

This is the published list from DRF and he was listed (24 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien $150,804) but without Saturday's earnings. The update from Churchill will likely have him situated properly, but I moved him up..

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This is the published list from DRF and he was listed (24 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien $150,804) but without Saturday's earnings. The update from Churchill will likely have him situated properly, but I moved him up..

Ya he is on the DRF list that why I said it-I think they put him on after O'Brien said he is a KY Derby Horse. Did not say he was going YET tho

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Even better, the current system insures that lots of horses with ZERO chance actually get in, which we should all embrace as handicappers.

Handicapping a 20-horse field gets a lot easier when you have auto-tosses like Twice the Appeal and Animal Kingdom getting in.

[randallscott35]

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

[slotdirt]

Sunday Break? What do you suppose he would have finished in the Derby? 13th?

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Even better, the current system insures that lots of horses with ZERO chance actually get in, which we should all embrace as handicappers.

Handicapping a 20-horse field gets a lot easier when you have auto-tosses like Twice the Appeal and Animal Kingdom getting in.

When you have 20 horses in a field, there isn't a system that could be created that wouldn't have auto-tosses in it. Graded earnings is just as fine as any other goofy scheme.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

#20 right now is Premier Pegasus at 228,000

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by tjfla

#20 right now is Premier Pegasus at 228,000

Remember lots of defections still...but I generally just pulled that number out of my ass so we will see.

[Patrick333]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

I agree. A lot of horses are on the bubble.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sunday Break? What do you suppose he would have finished in the Derby? 13th?

He would have been up close to the pace behind War Emblem, and probably would have held off the closers in that merry-go-round Derby. I'd say he would have been a threat for 3rd or 4th. He ran 3rd in the Belmont.

[Mike]

Didn't Sunday Break's connections put him in one of those made to order allowance races on a Wednesday afternoon? If I recall correctly, then they had only themselves to blame for not having the earnings.

[Alan07]

Gourmet Dinner is off the Derby/TC trail with a sore shin.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...erby_Trail_123

Trainer Peter Miller said that Comma to the Top, the winner of the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December but fourth in two starts this year, would have difficulty with the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

“We’re not going to the Kentucky Derby,” Miller said. “We’ll see what happens. I’ve discussed it with the owners and we’re in the same mindset. I’m not on the Derby trail. I’m on the pre-Derby trail.”

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-...ooking-crowded

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Gourmet Dinner is off the Derby/TC trail with a sore shin.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...erby_Trail_123

Trainer Peter Miller said that Comma to the Top, the winner of the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December but fourth in two starts this year, would have difficulty with the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

“We’re not going to the Kentucky Derby,” Miller said. “We’ll see what happens. I’ve discussed it with the owners and we’re in the same mindset. I’m not on the Derby trail. I’m on the pre-Derby trail.”
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-...ooking-crowded

Good move by Petey...He's a really cool horse..will have a nice career when he gets back on the grass.

[somerfrost]

I still find Master of Hounds interesting, don't like only one three year old prep and the fact that he hasn't run on dirt but his pedigree is excellent and he certainly should like the distance, also he has a decent turn of foot and won't have to rally from far back...I'll wait to see if (1) he's entered and (2) what his odds are but at a price, I think he could be worth a flyer and I would use him in exactas etc.