3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

Wow, some tough draws. No excuses for Tomcito here, if he's the real deal he has to do well with that draw. Same goes for Fierce Wind and Smooth Air. I guess Elysium Fields is in a slightly better position than the other top three but hard to get excited about post 8.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

okay tell me if this has more meaning for you. I cannot answer your questions about which horse broke from the 12 post in the past that had a realistic chance. What I can do is give you some data from my database which covers 82 nine furlong races run in the country this year. by comparing the Gulfstream results to all other tracks I think you'll agree that the post position bias is obvious. you are correct that there is not much data for post 12. there are only four starters in my sample from post 12 and no winners anywhere. but you can see by the trend that is established from the inner posts that do have a larger sample size.

below I am giving the impact values for each rail position at nine furlongs for Gulfstream alone, and then for all tracks other than Gulfstream. for anyone that doesn't know, impact values give you an idea of whether a particular position is under or over represented with regard to whole. A figure over 1 means more winners come from that post than the average, under 1 means fewer winners than the average are winning.

impact values by post position
pos 1, Gulf 2.49, other .71
pos 2, Gulf 1.94, other 1.13
pos 3, Gulf 1.38, other .71
pos 4, Gulf .55, other 1.13
pos 5, Gulf .55, other 1.44
pos 6, Gulf .31, other .98
pos 7, Gulf .86, other 1.25
pos 8, Gulf 0.0, other .30
pos 9, Gulf 0.0, other .88
pos 10, Gulf 0.0, other 1.67
pos 11, Gulf 0.0, other 1.07
pos 12, Gulf 0.0, other 0.0

It plain as day how the inner posts at Gulstream have a much larger share of the winners compared to the distribution at other tracks.

A more knowledgeable person than I has suggested that they will likely scratch, and target another race. I know I would especially since he needs the earnings to make the big race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've heard worse ideas.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

[Scav]

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by smuthg

I just saw where Curlin drew the 12 hole for the DWC... I can't remember how Nad Al Sheba is set up, but don't they have a pretty good run into the first turn.

http://www.emiratesracing.com/era/rcNadAlSheba.cfm

For those of you that are metrically challenge the World Cup is 2000 meters so there is a 400 meter (1/4 mile) run to the first turn. Should be plenty of time to find position.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

How do you know? He had very little chance the only time he tried dirt. He runs up close and drew the 12 hole against a good field.

[tiggerv]

Last chart since I need to get back to work. This is about as severe a case of inside bias you will ever see. The inside 3 posts win MUCH more than they should on a fair track. I will definitely look at Fierce Wind and Smooth Air a lot more closely now that I know the draw.

Date Race# Cond Class WinPP FieldSize
3/28/2007 1 fst M16 1 6
3/31/2007 5 fst MSW 3 8
3/31/2007 6 fst NW1 5 8
3/31/2007 10 fst GR3 3 7
3/31/2007 11 fst GR1 3 9
4/1/2007 3 fst C35 1 6
4/11/2007 5 gd AOC 5 6
4/11/2007 7 gd STR 1 5
4/12/2007 5 sly M50 5 6
4/19/2007 1 fst STR 6 7
1/5/2008 3 sly MSW 4 10
1/7/2008 6 fst C32 6 11
1/16/2008 8 fst NW2 2 6
1/19/2008 6 fst MSW 2 11
1/21/2008 3 fst STR 1 6
1/21/2008 8 fst NW1 1 8
1/24/2008 2 my NW1 1 6
1/26/2008 6 fst NW2 1 6
1/26/2008 9 fst STK 2 11
1/27/2008 3 fst NW2 4 5
2/2/2008 8 fst MSW 2 11
2/2/2008 9 fst GR1 1 8
2/4/2008 6 fst NW1 2 8
2/9/2008 4 sly MSW 1 8
2/11/2008 6 fst AOC 2 7
2/15/2008 3 fst AOC 4 5
2/17/2008 6 fst AOC 3 6
2/24/2008 4 fst MSW 5 8
2/24/2008 9 fst GR2 1 12
3/1/2008 8 fst NW1 3 7
3/2/2008 3 fst NW2 3 6
3/5/2008 3 fst C18 7 8
3/6/2008 6 fst MSW 3 12
3/8/2008 7 fst MSW 1 7
3/9/2008 9 fst GR2 5 7
3/13/2008 8 fst NW1 3 5
3/15/2008 9 fst GR3 2 8
3/23/2008 2 sly STR 1 6
3/23/2008 7 sly MSW 7 8

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

[golfer]

Regarding Big Brown and the 12 post, from drf.com:

"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.

"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."

[Stall Mucker]

Originally Posted by Kasept

FLORIDA DERBY

1. Fierce Wind (Zito/Velasquez)
2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz)
3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo)
4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez)
5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro)
6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz)
7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano)
8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano)
10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas)
11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez)
12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)

Chavez has a shot.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?


As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

Now that is interesting--thanks for that info DaHoss.

[whodey17]

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

[Danzig]

well, at least they have a ready made excuse in case of a loss. i would also remind everyone what we just saw happen with the previously undefeated derby favorite. horses can overcome some things. BUT can a lightly raced horse overcome their peers, and a very poor post draw that hasn't produced a winner at this distance in four years?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8?

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

I don't think it is all that unusual. The outside post certainly hurts his chances considerably, but I think everyone would agree that it doesn't completely ruin his chances. If he actually turns out to be a very special horse, he might still win.
Also, regarding the M/L, as I know you already know, this just reflects what the linemaker thinks the public will do. Many people that will be playing this particular race don't have a clue about the numbers of outside posts at that track.