My Belmont Analysis - Page 4

philcski · #61 06-07-2007, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The Alysheba was graded this year?

Yes, for the first time.

justindew · #62 06-08-2007, 04:20 PM

I can't believe no one pointed out that Tiago is a HALF-brother to Giacomo. Not FULL.

My bad.

brianwspencer · #63 06-08-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I can't believe no one pointed out that Tiago is a HALF-brother to Giacomo. Not FULL.

My bad.

You punk. I am on Derby Trail for the first time in a week, and I read that. I have just scrolled through every post in this thread to be sure I hadn't come late to the party and here's the last post....

EGAD!

Danzig · #64 06-08-2007, 05:26 PM

HEY!! brians back!

yay!!

how's it going??

brianwspencer · #65 06-08-2007, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

HEY!! brians back!

yay!!

how's it going??

Well it was going better until Justin stole my thunder after I read the whole damn thing....

I'm not back for long. Killing time at the end of the workday, still don't have my own computer, and going to Milwaukee for Pridefest in 30 minutes and spending the whole weekend up there (attending, not because I can't contain my overwhelming Pride, but for the fact that Catie Curtis, Rachael Sage, and Edie Carey are performing within 24 hours of each other starting tomorrow).

Danzig · #66 06-08-2007, 05:29 PM

oh

well have fun in milwaukee. guess we'll see ya later! take care man!

justindew · #67 06-08-2007, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

You punk. I am on Derby Trail for the first time in a week, and I read that. I have just scrolled through every post in this thread to be sure I hadn't come late to the party and here's the last post....

EGAD!

Now Brian. You aren't one of those guys who takes pleasure in the mistakes of others, are you?

Danzig · #68 06-08-2007, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Now Brian. You aren't one of those guys who takes pleasure in the mistakes of others, are you?

i thought everyone took pleasure in that...

brianwspencer · #69 06-08-2007, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Now Brian. You aren't one of those guys who takes pleasure in the mistakes of others, are you?

No, it just stuck out like a sore thumb when I read it the first time and was going to mention it, but didn't want to pile on if someone else had already brought it up and it was old news. I too, was surprised, that nobody mentioned it until you did.

horseofcourse · #70 06-08-2007, 05:42 PM

I'm gonna be creative here...the 3 best horses ran 1-2-3 in the Derby...the 3 best horses ran 1-2-3 in the Preakness...just a wild hunch...the 3 best horses run 1-2-3 in the Belmont.

1. Curlin
2. Rags to Riches
3. Hard Spun

as chalky as chalk can get this race is.

brianwspencer · #71 06-08-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I'm gonna be creative here...the 3 best horses ran 1-2-3 in the Derby...the 3 best horses ran 1-2-3 in the Preakness...just a wild hunch...the 3 best horses run 1-2-3 in the Belmont.

1. Curlin
2. Rags to Riches
3. Hard Spun

as chalky as chalk can get this race is.

I actually agree pretty completely with you. I am on the edge about including 'Crazyguy on the bottom of the tri instead of/along with Hard Spun.

I know Hard Spun is so impeccably bred for this trip, but he's just been coming up empty and 'Crazyguy seems like he'll just keep running, evenly at least and could have a legit shot to pass Hard Spun in the stretch.

Danzig · #72 06-08-2007, 05:48 PM

i'd love to see rags to riches win it, but i can't ditch hard spun after backing him all year--not many opportunities left to enjoy a danzig on the track.

hard spun
rags
curlin
imawildandcrazyguy

Slewbopper · #73 06-08-2007, 06:14 PM

Curlin/Tiago box....I don't see the filly in the money. Talk about a horse with no foundation trying to beat the boys at a mile and a half in her 6th race. I will take the two colts with 5 races over her every day including Sunday. I don't care what her breeding is

#74 06-08-2007, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I wrote this for Metro Philadelphia newspaper....

--------------------------------------------------------

1. Imawildandcrazyguy- It’s a common misconception that a come-from-the-clouds running style, like he has, is beneficial here in the longest Triple Crown race. He’s just not in the same class as many of these.

2. Tiago- While he probably has a quicker turn of foot than his full-brother, Derby winner Giacomo, he is going to have to run down some very talented horses late if he is to find the winner’s circle. Although that’s unlikely to happen, a 3rd place effort is not out of the question.

3. Curlin- I was wrong when I said he wouldn’t fire in the Derby. I was wrong when I said he needed a rest before the Preakness. Clearly, this is a very talented racehorse. If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress. But at odds-on, it’s your call, and a tough way to make a buck.

4. CP West- This was my Preakness long shot pick, and he looked like a winner with about ½ mile to go. Then he stopped running. If he takes another step forward, a top-3 finish is within reach. It will have to be a big step, although you do get Nick Zito and Edgar Prado in your corner. Remember Birdstone?

5. Slew’s Tizzy- This guy is about 3 lengths better than a stablemate of Curlin’s named Forty Grams. That makes Slew’s Tizzy about 12 lengths worse than Curlin.

6. Hard Spun- I doubt he would have won, but an ill-timed move in the Preakness certainly did not help his chances, and he was only beaten by 4 lengths. That being said, I think others in here are more likely to take the step forward needed to beat Curlin.

7. Rags to Riches- I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. Her half-brother, Jazil, won this race last year. I like her chances, but at 3-1, I don’t see a whole lot of value. Still, in my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner if Curlin fires. And if he doesn’t…...

I have yet to cash a ticket in the Triple Crown this year, as my top picks, Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Derby and Street Sense in the Preakness, finished 10th and 2nd, respectively. In an effort to turn a profit for the series, I’m going to hope (not predict) against hope that Curlin ran his best race in the Preakness, and I will leave him off my exacta tickets. Same with Hard Spun. While the odds of both failing to crack the top two spots in the race are not great, a case can be made for others being better on this day. Hey, it’s all about value, right?

1. Rags To Riches
2. CP West
3. Tiago

6-5-3-1,,rags to riches gets distanced and never runs again

Pedigree Ann · #75 06-08-2007, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

Curlin/Tiago box....I don't see the filly in the money. Talk about a horse with no foundation trying to beat the boys at a mile and a half in her 6th race. I will take the two colts with 5 races over her every day including Sunday. I don't care what her breeding is

I think I agree with you on the filly. The last fillies to run well in the Belmont, My Flag and Genuine Risk, had considerably more experience with longer races than Rags to Riches. GR, in particular, ran with the boys in the Wood Memorial, Derby, and Preakness.

Mortimer · #76 06-08-2007, 07:39 PM

Hey, it’s all about value, right?
--------------------

Yes.

But only when it makes some sense.

I'm going to have you darted...you're too dangerous to nimrods.

justindew · #77 06-08-2007, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Hey, it’s all about value, right?
--------------------

Yes.

But only when it makes some sense.

I'm going to have you darted...you're too dangerous to nimrods.

Turn on the light. Pull up your pants. Back away from the computer. Open a book.