What if???

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - it's very possible it could have happened like that.

Zenyatta was just a $60,000 yearling ... anyone who thinks Shirreffs hasn't done a masterful job of managing her to a 15-for-15 with 13 Graded Stakes record is downright insane.

She cost only 60k because she had some sort of skin condition flaring up at the time of the sale.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

After the Apple Blossom and an attempted conquest of Misremebered ... I wouldn't leave California until the Breeders Cup.

I'd prefer to run in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf and do something truly historic ... the first horse to ever win 3 different Breeders Cup races. I don't want Quality Road in the Classic if he's still as good than as now .. and I don't want to go in the Distaff unless I truly believed I could win it.

I think it would be interesting to see her in the Arlington Million.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's see. Z has run 11 wipeouts in 15 races; RA has 5 in 14 races. This is interesting because wipeouts are much more likely on dirt, as, typically, there's much less separation on poly/turf. Which sort of makes the 11 for 15 thing that much more impressive --especially for a horse that comes from the end of the pack. And, when you consider that Z's most pronounced wipeout was on dirt, you sort of get a sense of how unique what she's doing really is. If Z was running on dirt, she'd be gapping fields -- like RA had been, only she'd be doing it much more often --- maybe always.

I wonder what happens if Flores doesn't gun Zardana as soon as RA takes the lead. I still think that Zardana runs her down. However, by asking Zardana when he did, and having her respond the way she did, he forced RA to be asked earlier than Borel wanted to. Whether she was short or not is really not the issue: she was definitely short for this type of challenge. This was clearly unexpected by the connections and the fact that they've bailed on the AB pretty much indicates that they don't think she's up for something that's sure to tax her even more.

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

She cost only 60k because she had some sort of skin condition flaring up at the time of the sale.

I know - I've heard about that many times before. Her purchase price doesn't matter much .. at the time though, Shirreffs certainly wasn't getting a stock pile of riches in young horseflesh the way other huge name trainers get. He still isn't now either.

If you look at his other two big fillies .. Life Is Sweet didn't win a stakes race in her time with Bill Mott and instantly became better for Shirreffs.

Zardana only had one top three finish in 7 tries for Ron McAnally. With Shirreffs, she's won 4 of 9 starts and has certainly improved.

I realize that while both Bill Mott and Ron McAnally are in the Hall of Fame .. no one who pays any real attention to racing can argue that they're in Shirreffs leauge and still keep a straight face.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think it would be interesting to see her in the Arlington Million.

I would bet my life she doesn't go there. Nor should she.

She's not obligated to do anything right now.

She ran in the Breeders Cup Classic against Gio Ponti and that 3rd place finisher from Europe that struggled with the turn and got the giant sheet number in the race.

Rachel Alexandra's connections have ducked her ... ON DIRT .. not the other way around.

If Rachel Alexandra wants to face her before the BC ... let her come out to California and run 10 furlongs on synthetic... she'll embaress herself doing that.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

Gales

Why is it that what's obvious to the connections is far from for all of RA's (speed influenced) supporters? Say they pump her up and decide to go in the AB. And, Sheriffs sends Z, along with 3rd string Z. The latter shadows RA and moves when she does. 3rd string Z has shown she can really kick it when asked and it's doubtful RA could handle her (alone). And while these two go at it for a bit, Big Z zooms by with wipeout #12.They'd put such a beating on RA, that they'd have to take her HOTY award back.

Assmussen knows this; Jackson knows this. Dirt/speed freaks just don't.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Why is it that what's obvious to the connections is far from for all of RA's (speed influenced) supporters? Say they pump her up and decide to go in the AB. And, Sheriffs sends Z, along with 3rd string Z. The latter shadows RA and moves when she does. 3rd string Z has shown she can really kick it when asked and it's doubtful RA could handle her (alone). And while these two go at it for a bit, Big Z zooms by with wipeout #12.They'd put such a beating on RA, that they'd have to take her HOTY award back.

Assmussen knows this; Jackson knows this. Dirt/speed freaks just don't.

Fat Man - horses are animals not machines , when you make them do things (accelerated training programs) they don't want to do they will reject you and not want to participate

pushing ra for an april 9th race against team sheriffs is going to prove what??

we have an animal that was out from early sept to late jan , we have an animal that hasn't missed a beat since oct - it's a simple fact that Z will have more foundartion in her on april 9th

assmussen needs to get some long works into her , get her some foundation , and then get her back into racing by the summer - she had a tough campaign last year and by not showing up until the summer she will be following the same path as Z took the year before after her tough campaing on '08 when she didn't show up until May

[the_fat_man]

Gales

Give me a scenario where RA handles both Z's in a race. Because this is what most likely will happen. (The owner of Zardana will certainly not want to back down.) There isn't one. This is obvious to her connections. They've conceded, Bro.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

paint it anyway you want fat man , the cali crew retired their horse , retired - means never run again , but mysteriosly they keep the horse breezing and don't miss a beat since the classic , you can talk anyway you want about this , but that is a fact and that's why they are ready to run on april 9th..... there is no way in the world they could get RA ready in time for this race in April from late Jan after a 4 month + layoff and be able to compete , you know it too, that's the shame cuse you a smart guy

Try explaining that to Jay Hovdey or your average racing fan - or your average bettor who losses full takeout or more.

I guess it doesn't help any when the trainer you have in your corner to get you back ready from that layoff is Steve Asmussen. That's certainly what the stats were saying.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Give me a scenario where RA handles both Z's in a race. Because this is what most likely will happen. (The owner of Zardana will certainly not want to back down.) There isn't one. This is obvious to her connections. They've conceded, Bro.

again you are deflecting away from the most basic part of the equation here

the horse cannot simply be ready for the race on april 9th

you know it , and you come on here and play hide and go seek

why don't you talk about the sinster plot that the connections of Z did and retire her ??? now jackson look like the bad guy cuse he's backing out. let me guess she kept training after the classic because the moss family was going to bring her to prospect park and challenege you to a race on your bike in the spring once the snow melted and you worked off the "fat"

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Try explaining that to Jay Hovdey or your average racing fan - or your average bettor who losses full takeout or more.

I guess it doesn't help any when the trainer you have in your corner to get you back ready from that layoff is Steve Asmussen. That's certainly what the stats were saying.

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

[slotdirt]

What is Jay Hovdey's deal anyway? Can the guy be any more pro-Zenyatta? Has Moss promised him a breeding or something?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by gales0678

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

If she lost, especially like the way it looked like she was going to lose on Saturday (i.e.- traffic trouble/miss by a neck after going 8 wide). I think Shirriffs would have absolutely no problem still going to Oaklawn.

[prudery]

Originally Posted by gales0678

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

Shireffs would have Zenyatta ready ... Just like off the seven month layoff when she faced LIS first out last year .

There was no sinister " retirement " plot--what are you a fooking conspiracist ???

Moss wants run against Rachel, but NOBODY wants Rachel to run when she is not ready .

The question is--what is ready ??? And when ????

She should have benefitted from her prep race, and whether she accepted running in the AB or not, should be training for something, not going backwards .

The OUTCOME of this prep for Rachel was the determining factor--not fitness, not equipment, simply the outcome.

Had she won by 11--as is suggested had Zardana passed, the AB would be on, and it would not be a fair race for Rachel .

Keeping a horse on top of their game is an obvious goal . Preserving wins is also, but has the downside of being critiqued as avoiding hard competion .

This has been said about Zenyatta, and at times I do agree ...

It has never been said about Rachel, but it needs to said now .

[randallscott35]

Zenyatta is the most consistent all time Polycrap performer. That's all you can say. She ran once on dirt and it was a solid effort. This year she can prove a lot more. Let me see her beat older males at Toga or CD before annointing Shirreffs Pope.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Name one living that has more skill than him?

That's right ... you can't ... because there isn't anyone.

The guy has started almost 1,700 horses since '96 and shows a flat bet profit.

He won at a 40% clip for the entire year of 1999 - on what was easily the single toughest circuit year round circuit at the time - Southern California.

He won a Kentucky Derby with Giacomo - and a BC Distaff and BC Classic the same year with two females ... but none of any of that really matters.

What matters is what he did with first time starters in the late 90's when he trained for 505. The guy had very few babies .. and almost everyone of them ran mind-boggling in their debut.

He won at better than 50% with first-time-starters over a 3 years stretch from '98 through '00 (15-for-29) ... many of his debut winners paid generous mutuals .. and several of them won their debuts with triple digit Beyer figures. More than one of his took their debut with a 110 Beyer.

David Copperfield was 7/2 and outgamed future KY Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in his debut winning with a mid 90's Beyer. What was he ... like only the 12th most impressive of his 29 debut runners over that span?

The guy consistantly got seriously good young horses to run lifetime best races off of nothing but workouts. I'm talking Graded Stakes caliber performances. Cliquot lost his debut by a nose to General Challenge at like 5/1. Swept Overboard got nipped by Here's Zealous and ran a 100 beyer in defeat in his debut. It very easily could have been 17-for-29 instead of 15-for-29 with four 2nds.

Sounds like GOD is ahead of the pack with lets say..."new" technologies that might permit horses to perform a lot better.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

would sheriffs run Z against RA if the roles were reversed ??? take a long hard time to answer the question , i think the answer is fairly simple

He wouldn't.

Putting myself as the decision maker in Jess Jackson's camp ... I might have done exactly what he did after the FG race .. but only with the intent of lying to the public and going forward with preperations to make the race.

The reasons for doing so would be two fold ...

1.) I'm not sure Shirreffs will have Zenyatta as cranked up for a 500K race as a 1/9 favorite as he might for a $5 million race for the title of Female wonder horse. Shirreffs is one of about only a single trainer ever to train who I think really can crank one up for a main objective.

2.) I think Zardana is certain to go in the race if RA does .. but very likely won't if Zenyatta does. If you enter RA at the last possible second - you might be able to keep Zardana away. An added bonus.

People aren't going to care that you lied in a press statement .. they just want to see the race and they'll assume RA is training well and you've merely changed your mind. That won't happen. Minds don't come as twisted as mine.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

If she lost, especially like the way it looked like she was going to lose on Saturday (i.e.- traffic trouble/miss by a neck after going 8 wide). I think Shirriffs would have absolutely no problem still going to Oaklawn.

matt it has nothing to do with winning or losing the prep

if zenyatta did not train from early sept to late jan , then started breezing in late jan ,then had the hard race last sat to point for a race in april (the AB)and RA say won a bc race and didn't miss a beat since oct do you really believe that moss/sheriffs would really want to take her on ...... think about it hard and long , remember these are animals , these are not machines , if you have never been on the backside with these animals i know it's hard to imagine becuase when we watch them race they look like machines with a key and gas pedal attached to them , it's not that simple

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He wouldn't.

Putting myself as the decision maker in Jess Jackson's camp ... I might have done exactly what he did after the FG race .. but only with the intent of lying to the public and going forward with preperations to make the race.

The reasons for doing so would be two fold ...

1.) I'm not sure Shirreffs will have Zenyatta as cranked up for a 500K race as a 1/9 favorite as he might for a $5 million race for the title of Female wonder horse. Shirreffs is one of about only a single trainer ever to train who I think really can crank one up for a main objective.

2.) I think Zardana is certain to go in the race if RA does .. but very likely won't if Zenyatta does. If you enter RA at the last possible second - you might be able to keep Zardana away. An added bonus.

People aren't going to care that you lied in a press statement .. they just want to see the race and they'll assume RA is training well and you've merely changed your mind. That won't happen. Minds don't come as twisted as mine.

the whole lying concept started from the other camp , but, since the press doesn't bother to report that , there is nothing that can be done

Zenyatta was retired simply put , retired ......how many race horse that you know that retire and continue not to miss a beat ? this was the biggest con of the whole story , yet if you read the reports in the media it's all the RA camps fault

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by gales0678

matt it has nothing to do with winning or losing the prep

if zenyatta did not train from early sept to late jan , then started breezing in late jan ,then had the hard race last sat to point for a race in april (the AB)and RA say won a bc race and didn't miss a beat since oct do you really believe that moss/sheriffs would really want to take her on ...... think about it hard and long , remember these are animals , these are not machines , if you have never been on the backside with these animals i know it's hard to imagine becuase when we watch them race they look like machines with a key and gas pedal attached to them , it's not that simple

When you said reverse the roles, I thought you were specifically talking about the preps.
I do agree with you as far as the conditioning goes and have stated that I personally think that Rachaels camp would have scratched out of the AB even if she dug in and held on to win on Saturday.