What if???

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by justindew

Seriously? Multiple 110 Beyer debuts? Who?

...and....

Are you sure that was David Copperfields debut?

Not arguing. Just asking.

Please dont question Doug, he is beyond that. Come see me and if I find it legit, I will go to him with the problem.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

Seriously? Multiple 110 Beyer debuts? Who?

...and....

Are you sure that was David Copperfields debut?

Not arguing. Just asking.

Yeah. Hook And Ladder won his debut at 7/2 with a 110 Beyer for him.

The giant filly Manistique won her debut by 11 lengths at 6/1 odds with a 110.


http://www.hopewellfarm.com/news.shtml

DAVID COPPERFIELD began his career in flamboyant style. He defeated $4 million yearling and future Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus at Hollywood Park in his initial start. He moved through his conditions quickly, placing in the $250,000 California Derby in his first stakes try and taking the Cinema H.-G3 in his next start. Initially racing for 505 Farms, he was temporarily taken out of training to sell in Marshall Naify’s estate dispersal sale as a 3-year-old, where he realized a phenomenal $2.6 million. He continued his career for The Thoroughbred Corp. and won or placed in a total of eight stakes, six of which were graded, including the Hollywood Derby-G1, Oak Tree Derby-G2, San Gabriel-G2, and Bay Meadows Breeders’ Cup-G3.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

Bart Cummings.

I think they mean on this continent, but I do hear what you are saying....he wins huge races.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

I think they mean on this continent, but I do hear what you are saying....he wins huge races.

Nice avatar. Too bad that clown is blocking our view of the young lady.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Brownie Points beat a champion that day as well. Ginger Punch just didn't fire

We can tell that you dont really have an eye for a horse race and will forgive your "Ginger Punch just didn't fire". In time you will learn GrassHopper.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Name one living that has more skill than him?

That's right ... you can't ... because there isn't anyone.

The guy has started almost 1,700 horses since '96 and shows a flat bet profit.

He won at a 40% clip for the entire year of 1999 - on what was easily the single toughest circuit year round circuit at the time - Southern California.

He won a Kentucky Derby with Giacomo - and a BC Distaff and BC Classic the same year with two females ... but none of any of that really matters.

What matters is what he did with first time starters in the late 90's when he trained for 505. The guy had very few babies .. and almost everyone of them ran mind-boggling in their debut.

He won at better than 50% with first-time-starters over a 3 years stretch from '98 through '00 (15-for-29) ... many of his debut winners paid generous mutuals .. and several of them won their debuts with triple digit Beyer figures. More than one of his took their debut with a 110 Beyer.

David Copperfield was 7/2 and outgamed future KY Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in his debut winning with a mid 90's Beyer. What was he ... like only the 12th most impressive of his 29 debut runners over that span?

The guy consistantly got seriously good young horses to run lifetime best races off of nothing but workouts. I'm talking Graded Stakes caliber performances. Cliquot lost his debut by a nose to General Challenge at like 5/1. Swept Overboard got nipped by Here's Zealous and ran a 100 beyer in defeat in his debut. It very easily could have been 17-for-29 instead of 15-for-29 with four 2nds.

My point was that while Sheriffs is an excellent trainer, he is not the only trainer capable of campaigning a great horse like Zenyatta, surely there are a number of others who are as well. But I am glad that you crunched the numbers, though.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

We can tell that you dont really have an eye for a horse race and will forgive your "Ginger Punch just didn't fire". In time you will learn GrassHopper.

Fine she beat 1 good dirt horse on a dirt track.

A lot of horses that Rachel beat are equal to Ginger Punch.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Nice avatar. Too bad that clown is blocking our view of the young lady.

I'll change it back to the other picture, its better anyways.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Please dont question Doug, he is beyond that. Come see me and if I find it legit, I will go to him with the problem.

Can I use this as a sig?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Can I use this as a sig?

Yes.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The guy consistantly got seriously good young horses to run lifetime best races off of nothing but workouts. I'm talking Graded Stakes caliber performances. Cliquot lost his debut by a nose to General Challenge at like 5/1.

Cliquot was so impressive in defeat that race, I bet him for the Derby.

He actually had GC beat but got stupid late, lost his momentum and barely lost.

That was a pretty nice horse.

[10 pnt move up]

If Baffert had Zenyatta she would have been working bullets at 2 and would have never started later than Oak Tree and its highly unlikely she has anything close to the career she has had. Thats not a knock really, Baffert has a operation geared completely different than Shirreffs.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Fine she beat 1 good dirt horse on a dirt track.

A lot of horses that Rachel beat are equal to Ginger Punch.

You come back at the end of this year and tell me that those restricted 3 yo races and the horses she beat are all that you think they are. Many of the top 3 yo triple crown racers dont turn out to be much as thier careers meet open company.

Its a shame that RA will hide from Zenyatta after what happened this past weekend.

Next time you look at Zenyattas races you might try to see a closer that finds a way to win no matter what the pace is and the traffic along with the troubled ride she may get. 15 for 15 and that is what makes her special.

RA could still end up as being just a flash in the pan as a 3 yo and a has been as an older mare.

[Indian Charlie]

Historically speaking, both fillies are ridiculously overrated, so this whole back and forth discussion is pretty dumb.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

If Baffert had Zenyatta she would have been working bullets at 2 and would have never started later than Oak Tree and its highly unlikely she has anything close to the career she has had. Thats not a knock really, Baffert has a operation geared completely different than Shirreffs.

Yeah - it's very possible it could have happened like that.

Zenyatta was just a $60,000 yearling ... anyone who thinks Shirreffs hasn't done a masterful job of managing her to a 15-for-15 with 13 Graded Stakes record is downright insane.

My favorite book is Art of War... to quote that...

To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

The best victory is when the opponent surrenders of its own accord before there are any actual hostilities... It is best to win without fighting

Because of what happened last weekend with Zardana and Zenyatta ... the Zeyatta/Rachel Alexandra debate might as well be dead and the Zenyatta camp has won. The RA camp backed off and the race isn't happening.

It doesn't matter that Rachel Alexandra ran the better race of the two last weekend IMO - and that Rachel Alexandra was far more likely to step forward in the Apple Blossom than Zenyatta was leaving closer friendly Pro-Ride for real dirt.

[VOL JACK]

Doug, Is Byk posting under your login?

That is some deep shi+ man.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No. He knows hundreds of words I've never heard of. I think he reads the dictionary in his free time.

If I was in Zenyatta's camp ... I'd want my glorious public triumph in the Apple Blossom in the form of a showdown with "South American Sensation" Bambera. After that .. I'd want to be done with dirt for good.

Come back to California where the older male division is a joke and feast on that. She passed the Hollywood Gold Cup last year (Life is Sweet went instead) and she passed the Pacific Classic.

Besides one or both of those races ...I'd like to face Zardana on synthetic and just toy with her bigtime because she stinks on it ... but Zandara's owners might not be OK with that... they might want her back on dirt.

After the Apple Blossom and an attempted conquest of Misremebered ... I wouldn't leave California until the Breeders Cup.

I'd prefer to run in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf and do something truly historic ... the first horse to ever win 3 different Breeders Cup races. I don't want Quality Road in the Classic if he's still as good than as now .. and I don't want to go in the Distaff unless I truly believed I could win it.

[randallscott35]

Giacomo doesn't help your case, its a nothing burger. Would you have lit up like that for Kiaran had the dreadful Closing Argument won the Derby? I doubt it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Giacomo doesn't help your case, its a nothing burger. Would you have lit up like that for Kiaran had the dreadful Closing Argument won the Derby? I doubt it.

Kiaran McLaughlin is a GREAT trainer. Probably one of the 5 best I've seen over the course of my lifetime following racing. Closing Argument has almost nothing to do with that either.

If you look at Giacomo's win in the Kentucky Derby and his very respectable 4th in the BC Classic ... I do think it is one of many examples of how dangerous a trainer Shirriffs can be at getting a horse to run their peak race when pointing for a main goal.

I think when he was training for 505 .. the main goal was to come out smoking...and that could have been what the owners wanted. He's totally changed his style since in that regard.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because of what happened last weekend with Zardana and Zenyatta ... the Zeyatta/Rachel Alexandra debate might as well be dead and the Zenyatta camp has won. The RA camp backed off and the race isn't happening.

It doesn't matter that Rachel Alexandra ran the better race of the two last weekend IMO - and that Rachel Alexandra was far more likely to step forward in the Apple Blossom than Zenyatta was leaving closer friendly Pro-Ride for real dirt.

Let's see. Z has run 11 wipeouts in 15 races; RA has 5 in 14 races. This is interesting because wipeouts are much more likely on dirt, as, typically, there's much less separation on poly/turf. Which sort of makes the 11 for 15 thing that much more impressive --especially for a horse that comes from the end of the pack. And, when you consider that Z's most pronounced wipeout was on dirt, you sort of get a sense of how unique what she's doing really is. If Z was running on dirt, she'd be gapping fields -- like RA had been, only she'd be doing it much more often --- maybe always.

I wonder what happens if Flores doesn't gun Zardana as soon as RA takes the lead. I still think that Zardana runs her down. However, by asking Zardana when he did, and having her respond the way she did, he forced RA to be asked earlier than Borel wanted to. Whether she was short or not is really not the issue: she was definitely short for this type of challenge. This was clearly unexpected by the connections and the fact that they've bailed on the AB pretty much indicates that they don't think she's up for something that's sure to tax her even more.