Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer - Page 2

Bobby Fischer · #21 05-11-2008, 09:17 PM

say Big Brown has to run 9 furlongs @ GP from the 12 post. The beyer doesn't reward the 5 lengths he lost before the race in the draw.
Or say some cheap speed horse gets a 5 length lead at the half and runs an uncontested 6 furlongs in 1:09 = he doesn't get anything deducted for being dealt a beautiful hand.
There is no big brown , there is no cheap horse, all I see is a final time, and a track variant.

well that is the utopian view.

in reality we see projections, we see pre-judging a race or a horse by their ability or class. we see variants made by the evaluation of a horse, as opposed to the track.
All this, and these guys do a great job with the figures and produce a great resource for horseplayers. It's hard to make good figures and these guys do it.

the_fat_man · #22 05-11-2008, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I was more impressed by Harlem Rocker's race in the Withers.

Please expand on this.

CSC · #23 05-11-2008, 09:34 PM

Aren't numbers a subjective guess anyway? I think Steve was right earlier saying "Beyers don't do the actual running" All they offer us is an educated guess on a horses performance.

It is for this reason I am leaning on the side that Casino Drive's race was not as impressive as universally thought of. It was ok a good performance but nothing earth shattering in my eyes.

The main difference we have here is in Harlem Rocker's case as compared with the performance of Casino Drive's, is one horse ran down an already established horse in J BE K who was loose on the lead, with disdainful ease. The other ran down a tiring pace setter who is not in the same class at this point of J BE K. To me the numbers are an accurate reflection of this. No doubt in my mind which performance was better.

cmorioles · #24 05-12-2008, 06:16 AM

After what I posted, I'm pretty surprised to see the last race was given an 85. I'd love to hear the thinking on how 11 race maiden Another Hades suddenly ran a career best by 3 lengths while getting beaten rather easily.

This, in a nutshell, is why I make my own numbers. I think the New York guy, for one, makes a lot of mistakes. It will be interesting the track the top three from the last race.

cmorioles · #25 05-12-2008, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

The only race that I saw on Saturday was the Peter Pan. What work was performed on the track that caused a split variant?

I have no idea, I'm in Belgium. I was just saying it was possible. They always do something between races.

CSC · #26 05-12-2008, 08:01 AM

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

cmorioles · #27 05-12-2008, 08:05 AM

I certainly wasn't floored. It was decent in my opinion, nothing more.

CSC · #28 05-12-2008, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I certainly wasn't floored. It was decent in my opinion, nothing more.

Thanks for the confirmation, I thought I may have been missing something...

Better Than Honour · #29 05-12-2008, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

I was. He ran a 101 beyer off a major layoff and he did it in his second career start. The jock was impressed and he made a point that Big Brown will have his hands full. He is going to love 12f. I think a 226 is possible and perhaps Big Brown can go even lower and beat him but I think this horse is going to put up a big time in that race.

blackthroatedwind · #30 05-12-2008, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

I was. He ran a 101 beyer off a major layoff and he did it in his second career start. The jock was impressed and he made a point that Big Brown will have his hands full. He is going to love 12f. I think a 226 is possible and perhaps Big Brown can go even lower and beat him but I think this horse is going to put up a big time in that race.

So, you thought he might have said he wasn't impressed and that he couldn't possibly beat Big Brown?

Payson Dave · #31 05-12-2008, 12:13 PM

Just a thought here...
Regarding the 10th race at Belmont on Saturday....I was expecting a very good effort from Phobia... he had been training very well on the training track at Saratoga...he demolished a couple of different workmates...he had a very good work from the gate....his gallop outs could have been a little better but nonetheless a much improved performance was expected....and in fact his performance was definately much improved...

His opening qtr in 22.17 and a final qtr in 24 & change with a final time of 1:10.60 for NYbred mdns was fast but the workouts that I saw suggested he was going to run very well

blackthroatedwind · #32 05-12-2008, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Just a thought here...
Regarding the 10th race at Belmont on Saturday....I was expecting a very good effort from Phobia... he had been training very well on the training track at Saratoga...he demolished a couple of different workmates...he had a very good work from the gate....his gallop outs could have been a little better but nonetheless a much improved performance was expected....and in fact his performance was definately much improved...

So, you can't wait to get 4:5 the next time he runs?

Payson Dave · #33 05-12-2008, 12:20 PM

He is all yours next time....
what I was alluding to was that the time of the race may not have been totally due to a souped up track

blackthroatedwind · #34 05-12-2008, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

He is all yours next time....
what I was alluding to was that the time of the race may not have been totally due to a souped up track

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

Payson Dave · #35 05-12-2008, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

I don't have the form for Saturday here in front of me...I'll assume you are right....is your point that the improvement was too much to reasonably accept?

cmorioles · #36 05-12-2008, 12:50 PM

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

Payson Dave · #37 05-12-2008, 01:02 PM

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

blackthroatedwind · #38 05-12-2008, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

NoLuvForPletch · #39 05-12-2008, 01:26 PM

What I find most ammusing about beyer figures is that it seems like there isn't 1 figure that is ever assigned without someone challenging it...but they continue to be the most commonly used and accepted figures in handicapping?

Payson Dave · #40 05-12-2008, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.

Got it....I'll go back to just doodle-ing on my chalk board for now....Morty was right, he told me that venturing into the smart threads would be a mistake...