7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

CJ,

You're 100% right. The quirky surface is a wildcard and if she tries to go, it's a dicey proposition in the lane. Think Chuck and Willie will be talking about sitting off, finding position on the backstretch and coming with a run off the turn. One of the benefits of having Martinez here is that in the successive Churchill starts she increasingly rated for him.

I assume that the opinion above is based on your figs ( http://www.pacefigures.com )... On speed, the Thoro-Graph numbers have it as a very well-matched group (see attachment). Interesting that a $30k ALW at AP could be this much more challenging than the $50k ALW at CD. I'm as concerned about her needing the race after the 45 days and missed time as the competition, based on her pattern(s) in the three race skien April-May.

No matter what, it's going to be exciting and it certainly continues to be a better scenario than running in mid-low claiming events!

(And CJ, you should really take time at some point to expound on your figs for everyone.. And we still have to get you on the radio for the segment we talked about! For everyone reading this and CJ's analysis in general, his PaceFigures are widely regarded by many in the game, as the best, if most under-publicized, available.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

Despite the Cubs brainwashing, Scav is right. You can't compare this poly to others because it really hasn't been biased at all, other than the speed when wet. And it should be dry and sunny Wed for you guys. Only trouble spot, as discussed previously, is getting off the rail, which won't be an issue. You can win on the rail, it's just hard to move off of it

[cmorioles]

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

Agree, but dirt played to speed/rail holding, these races are finally 'fair' meaning good, well trained horses are winning.

I am also curious to see how she runs without her feet getting a taste of it, pre-race. At Hollywood, you can't work at SA and run at Hollywood, distinct disadvantage. Baffert is bringing all his horses over for one work pre-race now

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

sounds a lot like TP poly track. Speed does well when you add water. The hotter it gets, the slower it gets.

[cmorioles]

Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.


Arlington Park, R8, July 11


For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link.

Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation.

All that, and I loath chalk!

[Riot]

Thanks for the PaceFigs - I like them.

What I want to know is: has Sumwon broken away from her hotwalkers this week?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.


Arlington Park, R8, July 11


For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link.

Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation.

All that, and I loath chalk!

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

That "argument" could be made about any horse breaking from the 9-hole in any race at any track, and I'm pretty sure there have been at least a few 9-hole winners throughout the history of horse racing.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That "argument" could be made about any horse breaking from the 9-hole in any race at any track, and I'm pretty sure there have been at least a few 9-hole winners throughout the history of horse racing.

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

[Cannon Shell]

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

[Storm Cadet]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

r

you know me from cj's board as well, in fact I posted a poll about circuit speed bias today. I have an anonymous handle here.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

Her last race showed that she doesn't need the lead. She doesn't like to take way back but she doesn't need the lead. I think there is maybe 1 horse that is going to the lead and it ain't Sumwon. I picture Pletcher's horse pressing that one. Maybe it will be Sumwon doing that but as I have mentioned before she has run faster and is the class of the race. Her last two she really showed a lot of heart.

Hopefully she was able to get some rest after her trip and is ready to go. She could win by 3

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Her last race showed that she doesn't need the lead. She doesn't like to take way back but she doesn't need the lead. I think there is maybe 1 horse that is going to the lead and it ain't Sumwon. I picture Pletcher's horse pressing that one. Maybe it will be Sumwon doing that but as I have mentioned before she has run faster and is the class of the race. Her last two she really showed a lot of heart.

Hopefully she was able to get some rest after her trip and is ready to go. She could win by 3

That last race though was as candy and off the pace effort as you will find, she was able to sit a clear unpressured second and get a clear run at the lead. I think she topped out Beyer wise, she cant and wont improve on that with this setup. As a player arnt we suppose to discredit perfect trip beyers and give more credit to tougher trip beyers?

[Storm Cadet]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!

Nice payday for DT Stables and me today! Congrats all

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Nice payday for DT Stables and me today! Congrats all

way to go!