2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[gamblin4ever]

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I think the ALL OTHERS pool would look a lot better if the Southwest ran on Saturday instead of Monday. At least that way, you could see if someone like Elite Alex, Arch Arch Arch or Alternation has any kind of potential.

Regardless, if I wanted to throw $20 down on the FIELD at probable odds of 2-1, I would just pick up a form and bet a race that's going off in 5 minutes, rather than 85 days from now.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I would take him over Anthonys Cross.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

Same reason you'd make any bet. Because you think you have an edge. If missing twice means no edge, I'd be in big trouble.


--Dunbar

[HaloWishingwell]

I like to look for prices. Too many things can go wrong either on the track or health wise this early to take short prices. Second I like to look for a horse who will not run this week. They tend to float up in price or hold steady while those who impress on the track during the pool get overbet. Thirdly I will only bet a horse who ran during the pool if they didnt perform up to par and the price goes up high enough to bet them. I used all three last year on Super Saver on two of the pools including the last pool when his second to Line Of David was frowned upon. So far this week I'm looking at Soldat and Stay Thirsty. I have others in mind but since they are racing this week, judgement on them is on hold.

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1