Is Grasshopper a walk over?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are at least two races being run in this Super Derby and Grasshopper is the lone horse in his. The rest may or may not be competitive with each other but Grasshopper towers over them.

I know it's obvious but why are others even talking about hopelessly overmatched horses?

You are probably right about this. I might just be crazy to try to beat him here, but something about his resume just doesn't seem to justify the proabably insane odds he will be on Saturday. And just for the record, my decision to play against him, doesn't have anything to do with the bounce theory. I have never put much stock in that theory.
Other than the basic points I have already articulated in this thread, I think the fact that a horse who has never won a stakes race, and has actually never even run a good race outside of Saratoga will be an overwhelming odds-on favorite is a bit much. He certainly gave Street Sense a good battle in the Travers, but I just think that battling a hanger (even a really good hanger like Street Sense) tends to lead to an overrated performance.
Is his competition daunting? Not at all. It isn't really even average, but I think the race might unfold in such a way that he is asked to do something he simply hasn't done before. Is he good enough to do that? Probably, but I just think the odds will be a little out of whack.
By the way btw, it is good to have you back on the board.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You are probably right about this. I might just be crazy to try to beat him here, but something about his resume just doesn't seem to justify the proabably insane odds he will be on Saturday. And just for the record, my decision to play against him, doesn't have anything to do with the bounce theory. I have never put much stock in that theory.
Other than the basic points I have already articulated in this thread, I think the fact that a horse who has never won a stakes race, and has actually never even run a good race outside of Saratoga will be an overwhelming odds-on favorite is a bit much. He certainly gave Street Sense a good battle in the Travers, but I just think that battling a hanger (even a really good hanger like Street Sense) tends to lead to an overrated performance.
Is his competition daunting? Not at all. It isn't really even average, but I think the race might unfold in such a way that he is asked to do something he simply hasn't done before. Is he good enough to do that? Probably, but I just think the odds will be a little out of whack.
By the way btw, it is good to have you back on the board.

What would he need to do that he hasn't done before?

[letswastemoney]

All it would take is Grasshopper to go down 7 beyer points and Past the Point to go up 7 beyer points. It's not out of the question. Grasshopper did go from 89 to 105 in 2 races, so it's too early to say what Past the Point can do.

Saying that though, Grasshopper will probably win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

All it would take is Grasshopper to go down 7 beyer points and Past the Point to go up 7 beyer points. It's not out of the question. Grasshopper did go from 89 to 105 in 2 races, so it's too early to say what Past the Point can do.

Saying that though, Grasshopper will probably win.

Betting the second choice while praying for an eight or nine length reversal of form, for no legitimate reason, may not be a great road to horseplaying success.