Yikes

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pdrift1

if its a deep closer i like quay also danzig. but i'd prefer a stalker like anygivensat or curlin, and street sense i think might be setting just right

really? i like street sense less after today. sigh


three weeks away, 21 days to figure it all out. or die trying!

[whodey17]

I have loved Curlin ever since I saw Bejarano ride him in his maiden in Florida. I was not happy to see him taken from Pitts because I am a HUGE Pitts fan. However, in Curlin's 3 starts he has received perfect trips, perfect pace and very suspect fields. I doubt he will go off as the fav in the Derby. That fav status will go to SS. I would not be shocked to see Curling win, but I would be surprised.

[miraja2]

Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Right now I think Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense are the three best horses.
At this point though, handicapping the race is virtually impossible. You can't really handicap a race until you can visualize it, and in a 20 horse field, you can't visualize it until you know the post positions. There are a lot of horses this year that are pretty close in terms of ability. If one of them draws post 19 or 20, maybe you toss them.
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

i'm with you on your picks just add anygivensat and i think you have the derby horse

[Grits]

Originally Posted by miraja2

We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.

I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Take it easy, I never said "so don't be impressed." I started the damn thread with the title as "Yikes," for god's sake.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i agree--certainly was the more impressive of the two big 3 yo winners today. but not too sure what to think of the bluegrass, they absolutely crawled early in that one.
but i don't love his chances derby day either. at this point, i don't really like any of them! but someone has to win it.

question is who?

I guess I haven't commited yet, but I'm probably going to bet Any Given Saturday in the race----and I feel almost embarassed admitting it. While he has the absolute right style for the race, and has run what I believe to be his career best race over the track, he's really not much horse at all. Hopefully he is forgotten, and doesn't attract either JRV or Gomez, so I can get a better price.

Actually, if you compare his 3yo races with Giacomo's 3yo races, leading into the Derby, I think Giacomo's races were clearly a little better.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I guess I haven't commited yet, but I'm probably going to bet Any Given Saturday in the race----and I feel almost embarassed admitting it. While he has the absolute right style for the race, and has run what I believe to be his career best race over the track, he's really not much horse at all. Hopefully he is forgotten, and doesn't attract either JRV or Gomez, so I can get a better price.

Actually, if you compare his 3yo races with Giacomo's 3yo races, leading into the Derby, I think Giacomo's races were clearly a little better.

I don't think you're capable of being embarrassed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Astute point Morty.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Astute point Morty.

Good job.

Curlin will go off as the favorite most likely. But if this years Derby was bet properly, I could see the favorite as being one of the longest prices of all time. I mean there are so many horses that could win this year. And what if Curlin draws like Brother Derek last year. The favorite could/should be 5 or 6 to 1.

If one picks among the following horses I dont see how one could be laughed at:

Street Sense
Curlin
AGS
Nobiz
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Hard Spun

and do we add Dominican to the list, what others? This is very open. I have to think Curlin and Street Sense will be very close as favorites given middle posts.

oops I read the post above saying somewhat the same thing except I am dubious of CQ.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Curlin will go off as the favorite most likely. But if this years Derby was bet properly, I could see the favorite as being one of the longest prices of all time. I mean there are so many horses that could win this year. And what if Curlin draws like Brother Derek last year. The favorite could/should be 5 or 6 to 1.

I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....

You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.

I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.

Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.

I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.

[somerfrost]

Man, the #5 horse almost wiped out half the field at the start but replay showed nobody seriously compromised. Yes Curlin was impressive...lots going against him, he'll have to be very special to win the Derby.