Downgrading Tiago, Upgrading Cowtown Cat

[hockey2315]

After reading that Tiago hasn't liked Churchill and that the track should come up muddy, I'm dropping Tiago on top for Cowtown Cat. . .

If the track's fast, Tiago won't run well and if it's muddy he'll have a hard time with his style. . .

Cowtown Cat, however, should love the slop and I think he may be better than people are giving him credit for. . .

My top two are still Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday, though, as they should both love the mud and can still definitely win with a fast track. . .

[tycharles01]

Well we know Cowtown Cat loves bad weather he did run in snow

Where did you read that Tiago did not like CD?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

After reading that Tiago hasn't liked Churchill and that the track should come up muddy, I'm dropping Tiago on top for Cowtown Cat. . .

If the track's fast, Tiago won't run well and if it's muddy he'll have a hard time with his style. . .

Cowtown Cat, however, should love the slop and I think he may be better than people are giving him credit for. . .

My top two are still Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday, though, as they should both love the mud and can still definitely win with a fast track. . .

Hockey you are going about this all wrong. I wouldn't throw horses out simply because people write things. If anything, the 2001 Derby should show that. Read multiple places how Monarchos was sore and took a lot of time to warm up ...etc....All he did was go out and run the fastest Derby(if you go by Beyers) of this decade....That said. I wouldn't use Tiago either. LOL

[hockey2315]

"Tiago: Was hoping to see more from Giacomo's baby brother since he is an improving, stretch-running sort who could be up late for a share at a big price. But he just hasn't seemed comfortable over the local surface since shipping in off a fast work at Hollywood Park, where he was lugging in very badly at the end."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/84595.html

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Hockey you are going about this all wrong. I wouldn't throw horses out simply because people write things. If anything, the 2001 Derby should show that. Read multiple places how Monarchos was sore and took a lot of time to warm up ...etc....All he did was go out and run the fastest Derby(if you go by Beyers) of this decade....That said. I wouldn't use Tiago either. LOL

I wouldn't just blindly follow a report, but this comes from a reputable source. . . The lugging in worries me and even without the report of his problems at Churchill, the sloppy track alone should significantly detract from his chances. . .

[miraja2]

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't just blindly follow a report, but this comes from a reputable source. . . The lugging in worries me and even without the report of his problems at Churchill, the sloppy track alone should significantly detract from his chances. . .

Tiago has 4 lifetime races, all at SA...obviusly should he win he'd become the first winner with less than 5 LT starts since Exterminator in 1918, that angle aside...he has to be suspect racing at only one track as Cal shippers often have difficulties. Hard to believe an underraced brother of Giacomo can make history repeat itself! Cowtown Cat appears a step slow but he's obviously in fine form and out of Distorted Humor should love the slop...I think he's a live horse!

[hockey2315]

Miraja- I understand your argument and felt the same way for a while, but I don't think you can totally discredit a horse's performance because it was bias aided. I would've liked to see him come back with a higher number, but it's not like he ran a 90 Beyer in the Ill. Derby. . . He's got the breeding and running style that makes me think he's a contender at a nice price. . .

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Tiago has 4 lifetime races, all at SA...obviusly should he win he'd become the first winner with less than 5 LT starts since Exterminator in 1918, that angle aside...he has to be suspect racing at only one track as Cal shippers often have difficulties. Hard to believe an underraced brother of Giacomo can make history repeat itself! Cowtown Cat appears a step slow but he's obviously in fine form and out of Distorted Humor should love the slop...I think he's a live horse!

I hope he's alive! LMAO

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I hope he's alive! LMAO

LOL...very funny!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

It might be folly for me to do it, but I'm including Cowtown Cat on all my tickets. I get all of the circumstances surrounding his last two wins and how they contributed, but I loved the way he was moving at Hawthorne and that he came home quickly (though, admittedly, he was supposed to after lulling the field to sleep with that opening half).

I just think it's possible that he's getting better at the right time and he could make some noise Saturday.

[tycharles01]

I am with you on Cowtown Cat wont have him in the Win spot but 2,3 or 4 on every ticket hopefully at a great price

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't just blindly follow a report, but this comes from a reputable source. . . The lugging in worries me and even without the report of his problems at Churchill, the sloppy track alone should significantly detract from his chances. . .

Uggh with the reputable sources. They are people like you and me with opinions. They are wrong more than they are right. For every Barbaro who trained like a champ and ran to it there are a ton of others who fall flat on their face when training well and vice versa. More conviction is needed than someone who writes a column however respected they are.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Uggh with the reputable sources. They are people like you and me with opinions. They are wrong more than they are right. For every Barbaro who trained like a champ and ran to it there are a ton of others who fall flat on their face when training well and vice versa. More conviction is needed than someone who writes a column however respected they are.

Like I said, it's not just what was written. . . I think he'll suffer from the pace scenario and track conditions. This report just added to my opinion. ..

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I am with you on Cowtown Cat wont have him in the Win spot but 2,3 or 4 on every ticket hopefully at a great price

I doubt he will be at a "great price." No horse that is coming off two straight wins, with a decent post position, and with a name the general public will think is "cute" will be a great price.
He is 20/1 ML, and I bet old Mike B. has this one about right. I think he'll go off at somewhere around 20/1......which is an absolutely TERRIBLE price on him. His actual chances of winning I would put at somewhere around 80/1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

Wouldn't have mattered either way. . . I hit the exacta as a saver but still lost money when I factor in Oaks/Derby doubles and a few small futures. . .

[byalip]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

Hating Cowtown Cat was my only bit of brilliance today.

SS was kinda obvious but I went with my heart and backed Curlin. i was dead wrong about Hard Spun being too much of a head case to handle the derby.

Seeing Imawildandcrazyguy clunk in for fourth made me feel as ignorant as when Giacomo won. Can anyone explain this?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by byalip

Hating Cowtown Cat was my only bit of brilliance today.

SS was kinda obvious but I went with my heart and backed Curlin. i was dead wrong about Hard Spun being too much of a head case to handle the derby.

Seeing Imawildandcrazyguy clunk in for fourth made me feel as ignorant as when Giacomo won. Can anyone explain this?

Same here. I know that early on Andy Serling liked him a bit and he actually looked very good in the post parade. Hope he ended up including him in the super.