My Belmont Analysis

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

Then bet him.

Im not at 4/5.

Whoops.

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.


I need to read before I type.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right.....I don't.

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think for the most part there is a very answerable reason why horses run well and why they run poorly. I prefer to use logic.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I don't think anyone can assume a lightly raced horse like Tiago can't win. He might very well lose by a ton, by he hasn't raced enough to give a true indication of his ability.

i can.

tiago is dreadful.

if tiago wins, i will let drugS tell me his theories about street sense for 12 hours a day for a full year.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think for the most part there is a very answerable reason why horses run well and why they run poorly. I prefer to use logic.

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

OOOOOOOOOO

Too kind.

I'm beginning to to think about lending you Thebby for a day.





Make that half a day.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

We'll have that discussion after that improbable event occurs.

[justindew]

I love how my posts always seem to turn into a debate between two other posters, often having nothing to do with my original post.

Do I get extra points for that?

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by justindew

I love how my posts always seem to turn into a debate between two other posters, often having nothing to do with my original post.

Do I get extra points for that?

Go to the This is Me thread.







And stay there.

Originally Posted by Scav

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

There is the possibility of this horse actually improving imo. He was a bit behind to begin with, and he might have actually become physically more mature. This is a possibility, I dont care about what sheets say.

So:
1. Get better (not mentioned)
2. Same Curlin
3. Tired, regression

[justindew]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Go to the This is Me thread.







And stay there.

You aren't wearing pants right now, are you? Be honest.

Originally Posted by justindew

I love how my posts always seem to turn into a debate between two other posters, often having nothing to do with my original post.

Do I get extra points for that?

This is a very common occurence on a public board.
Parlimentary procedure is not followed. We dont wear white wigs.
No points or soup for you.

And then there is Morton. Who for some unknown reason just pesters and never adds a word about horses.
The moderators have apparently found his need for attention amusing. A public board...
Maybe I should say a moderator. And he has not killed anyone yet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Unless we get a mod who wants to rule with an iron fist....and keep everything on-topic ('Sup PA) it's going to be like that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I love how my posts always seem to turn into a debate between two other posters, often having nothing to do with my original post.

Do I get extra points for that?

If you did you would have lost double for the final remark.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Unless we get a mod who wants to rule with an iron fist....and keep everything on-topic ('Sup PA) it's going to be like that.

It doesn't bother me or anything. It's actually pretty entertaining. Personality is a good thing.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you did you would have lost double for the final remark.

Dagger!

[blackthroatedwind]

I think you do a good job with your articles.

[Mortimer]

I think you do a good job with your articles.
---------------


Crinkle




Trash can

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We'll have that discussion after that improbable event occurs.

How improbable?

A number por favor?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'd hate to have to write more than two or three sentences about this race.

I'm using Curlin and R2R in multi-win exotics (twice as much to Curlin) and I will toss Hard Spun in on a ticket with mostly my singles in the surrounding races...just so he doesn't beat me out of anything if my top picks win all the surrounding races.

I will only bet the race if people get carried away, and really overbet each of the four least likely winners.