7/23: Saratoga (Lake George; $27k C/O)

[Kasept]

That was crazy.. 3/5 on Overspending...

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That was crazy.. 3/5 on Overspending...

When you watch the head-on replay, take a look at how Rosie schooled Johnny V. by pinning him down low on the rail. Overspending was likely not winning that race and feel foolish for scratching into the 8 horse in that race.

[ScottJ]

Got Lucky did just that in today's third where this Grade 2 placed filly was life and death to hold off this first level allowance field.

As for Rosie's claim of foul with fourth place finishing Pretty Fancy, she really needs to go back and look at this weekend's non-calls. Did she actually think that the stewards were going to make a move here or was it more of a show for George Arnold?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

When you watch the head-on replay, take a look at how Rosie schooled Johnny V. by pinning him down low on the rail. Overspending was likely not winning that race and feel foolish for scratching into the 8 horse in that race.

Why do you feel foolish? Pletcher is like 95 % with odds on 2 yr old FTS and you had to think Overspending would be Odds on based upon morning line.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why do you feel foolish? Pletcher is like 95 % with odds on 2 yr old FTS and you had to think Overspending would be Odds on based upon morning line.

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

I am not suggesting you bet a 2/5 but you were complaining that you "scratched into" overspending. To me that means you were playing pick 4 or 5. Scratching into a horse having a 93% chance of getting you through the leg isnt the worst thing that can happen. Not covering it in the first place gives you a 7% chance to get through the leg based upon Pletchers stats in that domain.