Offshore Belmont Odds and props

[robfla]

As mentioned earlier, I am kind of surprised of the odds where "he must start". I still think the race day odds will be much lower. 3/5 or less.

[cakes44]

Oh he'll be 1/5. Problem is, there's 3-4 horses in there that would be life and death in a 90 BSF maiden race. By the time the race starts, he'll be tough to bet against in the top spot. It will probably be cold exacta time.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Oh he'll be 1/5. Problem is, there's 3-4 horses in there that would be life and death in a 90 BSF maiden race. By the time the race starts, he'll be tough to bet against in the top spot. It will probably be cold exacta time.

He won't be anything close to 1-5 unless we get a lot more defections. Tonalist, Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve, and Right on Curlin will all get play. Those odds that Dunbar posted from Bookmaker should be in the ballpark if those horses run. CC will be around 4-5, Wicked Strong 6-1 or so, Tonalist 7-1 or so, Commanding Curve 8-1 or so, and Ride on Curlin 8-1 or so.

If CC was 1-5, that would mean all those other horses would be around 20-1 apiece. That's not going to happen.

The big offshore books are always in the right ballpark on the odds. If they weren't they would go out of business. They're not going to give you even money on a 1-5 shot.

[ranger5830]

Chrome was only 5-2 in the derby, and 1-2 in the preakness. I haven't looked, but I would have to think it would be highly unusual (if not unprecedented) for a preakness winner to go off at a higher price in the belmont than he did in Baltimore, especially a horse looking for the triple crown. And while I certainly understand that sports books are not in business to lose money, even money seems like excellent value relative to what his off odds will be on the tote.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by robfla

As mentioned earlier, I am kind of surprised of the odds where "he must start". I still think the race day odds will be much lower. 3/5 or less.

Current odds 2:5

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by robfla

Current odds 2:5

I wouldn't make too much of that. It's way too early. There is only $64,000 in the win pool right now. By post time there will probably be around $10 million in there.

Here are the double will pays. Charming Kitten paid $13 to win.

$2 BELMONT GOLD CUP-BELMONT STAKES WILL-PAYS
Charming Kitten (#3) with:
1. Medal Count, $258.50
2. California Chrome, $38
3. Matterhorn, $936
4. Commanding Curve, $150
5. Ride On Curlin, $144.50
6. Matuszak, $697
7. Samraat, $272
8. Commissioner, $368
9. Wicked Strong, $85.50
10. General a Rod, $472
11. Tonalist, $127

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

Current odds 2:5

Take a look at those Double will-pays with Charming Kitten, and tell me Chrome's payoff looks like a horse that will be bet down to 3-5!

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

They must be taking huge action against CC. Right now if you want to bet the field you have to lay -160 and they will give +135 on CC. That is very surprising that they are offering practically 7-5 on CC when the horse is 4-5 at the track.