12 Reasons why CC can't win Triple Crown

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

1 Specatcular Bid
2 Pleasant Colony
3 Alysheba
4 Sunday Sillence
5 Silver Charm
6 Real Quiet
7 Charismatic
8 War Emblem
9 Funny Cide
10 Smarty Jones
11 Big Brown
12 I'll Have Another


These are the 12 greats that missed The Crown in the last 36 years, Once we have another Triple Crown winner, these 12 greats will be forgotten, that would be a sin, Every time the TC is on the line, we get to relive the stories of these 12, for three weeks between The Preakness and The Belmont the hype is on and these 12 come back to life, I remember all 12, and love hearing about them again and again, Can anyone tell me about the near misses from Citation to Secreatriat? I doubt it, once Secretariat won The TC, those near misses are forgotten, I know I am selfish, but I do not want a TC winner,I do not want to have these 12 fade away into history, when they come alive every time the Crown is on the line........

I totally disagree. Especially since all of their races are available on the internet. That is not the case for the horses who ran between Citation and Secretariat.

[joeydb]

So, since there were 12 attempts in the last 36 years that didn't work out, it's impossible for California Chrome to win the Triple Crown?

Talk about a non sequitur - I don't see the logic in making such a statement.

Your rationale is also not specific to California Chrome at all. Presumably this would apply to any and all attempts in the future that may come up. And that doesn't sync with the fact that it has been done many times before.

I don't know whether Chrome will win or not - of course I am rooting for him. But citing other failed attempts and not citing specifics about California Chrome makes no sense to me.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by joeydb

So, since there were 12 attempts in the last 36 years that didn't work out, it's impossible for California Chrome to win the Triple Crown?

Talk about a non sequitur - I don't see the logic in making such a statement.

Your rationale is also not specific to California Chrome at all. Presumably this would apply to any and all attempts in the future that may come up. And that doesn't sync with the fact that it has been done many times before.

I don't know whether Chrome will win or not - of course I am rooting for him. But citing other failed attempts and not citing specifics about California Chrome makes no sense to me.

I think he was not being overly serious, and was perhaps waxing nostalgic.

Then again, some of the failures in logic I've seen regarding horses like Zenyatta, ya just never know.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think he was not being overly serious, and was perhaps waxing nostalgic.

Then again, some of the failures in logic I've seen regarding horses like Zenyatta, ya just never know.

LOL..........correct you hit the nail on the head, some people are just too serious, just my nostalgic opinon..........

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

LOL..........correct you hit the nail on the head, some people are just too serious, just my nostalgic opinon..........

Sorry - inflection, intonations and any other style beyond the printed page is sometimes elusive when dealing solely with email or text posts.

Should not have taken it seriously...

[Danzig]

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

Actually, coin flipping isn't a 50/50 for heads/tails thing like everyone thinks.

Close enough though.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

DITTO

[Indian Charlie]

What a weird TC this is.

A horse that people seem to love is on the verge of winning the TC, yet there seems to be an inordinate amount of people routing against him pulling it off.

Also a trip is that the reasoning I have been reading about why he won't win it is pretty nonsensical (beyond this thread, which I realize isn't serious).

I would love to hear RTH's opinion on why he can't win it. It can't be any worse than what I've been reading.

The way I see it, that field really isn't that different from anything he's already trounced, and I just don't see Tonalist winning.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What a weird TC this is.

A horse that people seem to love is on the verge of winning the TC, yet there seems to be an inordinate amount of people routing against him pulling it off.

No kidding. You'll hear the arguments that he's not good enough or "special" enough to be a TC champion. Really? What exactly has he done wrong this year? Then there's the "week 3YO crop." So, in May we are already judging this crop? "He's tired." Perhaps, but he's not showing it if he is. We won't know the answer to that until the Belmont is run. Is he a cinch? No way. But on paper he looked great going into the Derby and even better going into the Preakness. I don't see anything on paper to diminish his chances in the Belmont -- frankly on paper his chances look better than good. Yeah, the Triple Crown is tough -- it's supposed to be. Odds are against him just going by past TC try experiences. No, he's not going to pay anything, and I totally get betting against him. But I'm excited as hell about his chances, and wonder how any fan couldn't be.

And yes, FATPIANO I get the nostalgia angle, my comment was a response to what IC said.